Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1779. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PsychicMaria:


Sir,

I would not dare use my extrasensory predictions on behalf of your selfless greed.
have you been staring into the flush model again
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
1778. pottery
Quoting PsychicMaria:


Sir,

I would not dare use my extrasensory predictions on behalf of your selfless greed.

heheheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

sry but i would include tx remember happen in 2008


I know you would like to see a hurricane in your area, as you currently reside in Texas. However, I wouldn't hope for disaster, my fried.
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1774. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sometimes you can have too much of the right conditions drowns its self

Not sure I understand that...
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Quoting btwntx08:

sry but i would include tx remember happen in 2008


No No. Let her be right n that count. ;)
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1772. centex
Quoting kmanislander:


I call all of that quiet. Thunderstorms in Florida any given day of the week are worse than what we have seen in the tropics of late.
Wow, that sounds like a serious downcast to invest. Granted it's only 10% but many of us think that is only because development is not expected until after 48 hours.
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1770. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting PsychicMaria:


Sir,

I would not dare use my extrasensory predictions on behalf of your selfless greed.


Ouch !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
GFDL

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1767. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting CoopsWife:


Keeper, thanks for trying to moderate in there. What a nightmare. Does the ignore function work in chat as it does on the blogs?
yeah it works but once you log out when you log in there all there again
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting centex:
While the start has been, lets say nothing to dangerous, we did have above normal activity in S. Tx. I'm in camp that thinks a couple of weeks can change everyone's thinking.


I'd have to agree with you there.
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1764. Drakoen
Tropics are active. 93L with a high chance of becomming a tropical cyclone and a decent shot with 94L. Doesn't take a hurricane roaring through the Caribbean for the season to be active.
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1763. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Hey pottery
hope you didnt get flooded out?

Only traces here for the last 2 days!! I see you got loads!
Went to PAP today, major traffic where the road collapsed. Used the SMR.
Going to be pandemonium tomorrow morning..........
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1761. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting pottery:

Agree with that.
Very peculiar.
The dry air was the Big Surprise?
Everything else was "GO".
sometimes you can have too much of the right conditions drowns its self
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting pottery:
I remember.
But the forecasts were all in favour of more activity by now.
We will need a swarm of storms to get anywhere near the forecasts...
Possible. Not a nice thought though.


I don't see anything above 15 total given where we are now. My original forecast was for 14/7/4 or 5. We'll see.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
Does anyone have an answer to #1735?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
crazy people on there


Keeper, thanks for trying to moderate in there. What a nightmare. Does the ignore function work in chat as it does on the blogs?
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whats new
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Positive NAO. Likely we will see a neutral or negative NAO for the rest of August and early September.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I call all of that quiet. Thunderstorms in Florida any given day of the week are worse than what we have seen in the tropics of late.
Lol, true, but they still seem active to me.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting PsychicMaria:
Hello all!

U.S. Mainland to Be Affected - August 2010:

1. Florida; east coast & panhandle
2. Gulf Coast; not including Texas
3. North/South Carolina; outer banks


What stocks should I buy on the open tomorrow ?
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
1753. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Dry air and the TUTT coupled with isolated pockets of shear. SST alone does not an active season make. Remember our discussion back in May when I said conditions were too good to be true ?. Well, here we are.
I remember.
But the forecasts were all in favour of more activity by now.
We will need a swarm of storms to get anywhere near the forecasts...
Possible. Not a nice thought though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1752. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting studybuddy188:
What's up with the chat tonite...?
crazy people on there
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53827
Quoting whs2012:


Can someone post the model run for GFDL?


Link
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Quoting txsweetpea:


Yea I know ..I feel the same way.


UGH! I am literally tired of running! Getting too old for this.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not too quiet. 93L has a good chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. We also have 94L moving into the Gulf of Mexico which should be favorable for cyclogenesis. To top that off, the GFS forecasts favorable upper level winds across the MDR.

18z GFS shear forecast

48 hours:



I call all of that quiet. Thunderstorms in Florida any given day of the week are worse than what we have seen in the tropics of late.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
1744. centex
While the start has been, lets say nothing to dangerous, we did have above normal activity in S. Tx. I'm in camp that thinks a couple of weeks can change everyone's thinking.
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Hi...
Earlier someone mentioned that the newly emerged wave off W. Africa has been labeled PR127l or something like that.
What does that mean and what's the significance?
I'm not exactly sure if it really was "PR127l" but it's something along those lines.
Thanks.


And is anything as of now forecasted to become of it?
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1741. DDR
Hey pottery
hope you didnt get flooded out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting truecajun:


iv'e noticed that they don't "alarm" us until they are very certain. surely they know that it's possible to develop, but they play it cool until down to the wire
Night true cajun,I know how that is.
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GFDL---http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
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1737. will45
Quoting whs2012:


Can someone post the model run for GFDL?



Link
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Quoting pottery:

Agree with that.
Very peculiar.
The dry air was the Big Surprise?
Everything else was "GO".


Dry air and the TUTT coupled with isolated pockets of shear. SST alone does not an active season make. Remember our discussion back in May when I said conditions were too good to be true ?. Well, here we are.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15816
Hi...
Earlier someone mentioned that the newly emerged wave off W. Africa has been labeled PR127l or something like that.
What does that mean and what's the significance?
I'm not exactly sure if it really was "PR127l" but it's something along those lines.
Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


What's up MH09 ?. The tropics still quiet eh ??

What a strange start to the season. Looks like no action until the last week of August.
Not too quiet. 93L has a good chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. We also have 94L moving into the Gulf of Mexico which should be favorable for cyclogenesis. To top that off, the GFS forecasts favorable upper level winds across most of the MDR.

18z GFS shear forecast

48 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting whs2012:


I don't even know why I watch the weather on the news lol.


iv'e noticed that they don't "alarm" us until they are very certain. surely they know that it's possible to develop, but they play it cool until down to the wire
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


I don't wish storms on anybody. But the quicker it gets on land the weaker it will be. So I hope it doesn't get anywhere near here.


Yea I know ..I feel the same way.
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1730. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


What's up MH09 ?. The tropics still quiet eh ??

What a strange start to the season. Looks like no action until the last week of August.

Agree with that.
Very peculiar.
The dry air was the Big Surprise?
Everything else was "GO".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.