Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1830. will45
1822. PsychicMaria 11:06 PM EDT on August 08, 2010

Go down to Weather chat they really need a Psychic
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1829. 7544
imo dry air got to 94l all the conv is wanning

93l also getting dry air

ok ready for a new invest can we get a real one this time lol
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Plenty of areas to watch along with 94L.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1826. smuldy
Quoting PsychicMaria:


Models? I am no meteorologist. The work I perform is of much higher accuracy than the work of any form of scientist.
Which games in Major League Baseball get rained out next sunday night? not that I doubt Shawn Spencer like abilities.......
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1825. BDADUDE
Quoting pottery:

Sounds like you were lucky to survive LOL

It was touch and go for a while.
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1824. breald
Quoting CoopsWife:
Night, Kman - I'm off, too. Couple of chores to do before hitting the rack.


hitting the rack? lol do you mean sack?
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New data :)


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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1821. pottery
Quoting BDADUDE:
I live in Bermuda and at the height of tropical storm Colin my car almost got wet and a leaf fell in my swimming pool.

Sounds like you were lucky to survive LOL
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Quoting studybuddy188:
Do people have me on ignore or what?
Yep
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1818. centex
Quoting kmanislander:


My point is that if you look at the activity the last several days it has been very weak. Very little deep convection anywhere and a few small systems struggling to hold on. Not a downcast, just an objective observation. When a really well put together system comes along you will see a big difference between that and what we have seen of late.
OK, what have you done for me lately? I also believe in persistence, but at some point it changes. Fair to say not now, I just believe can't predict and persistence is less likely each day. All the forecasters including me have eaten so many crows in recent weeks it’s turned into a low carb diet.
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1816. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
SUBJECT: "Estelle" Maintaining Its Strength.. For Now

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Estelle (1001 hPa) located at 17.8N 111.7W or 320 NM south southwest of southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
45 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 hrs: 17.8N 113.4W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 hrs: 17.5N 114.3W - 25 knots (Low Pressure Area)
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:


Does anybody have an answer? I guess not?
Any ideas?

Thanks!


Pouch tracking from the Naval Postgraduate School
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1814. xcool
LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting LADobeLady:


Going out on a limb I see...I predict a run on potted meat, bread, beer and batteries.
You forgot cigarets. When I drove cab you could always count on a bunch of runs to the 7/11 just when conditions got bad.
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Night, Kman - I'm off, too. Couple of chores to do before hitting the rack.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Lol. I know the answer. :P
Shhhh. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1809. BDADUDE
I live in Bermuda and at the height of tropical storm Colin my car almost got wet and a leaf fell in my swimming pool.
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Quoting pottery:

Good Lord. That will raise the price of beer.........


Ohhh see we did get a stock tip...buy Budweiser stock!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You have extrasensory stuff huh...tell me on what day I was born.


Lol. I know the answer. :P
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Well I'm out for tonight. Catch you all tomorrow.
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never mind =(
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Quoting pottery:

Good Lord. That will raise the price of beer.........


And Spam, too.
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Quoting DrPhilOrb:
Jasonthecoolman10xx




you been reported
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Quoting btwntx08:

true but tx isnt in the clear for the rest of the yr yet...if a storm does hit tx it would be a corpus to tx/la area


I know BT. Just kidding. Unfortunately south Texas is not in the clear either. From Mexico to Canada and the Caribbean and the Bahamas. Nobody in the clear yet. Sadly. :(
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1796. will45
1780. PsychicMaria 10:57 PM EDT on August 08, 2010

Did ya stay at Holiday INN last night?
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Ahhh Finnaly some peace here , no trolls here =)
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1794. pottery
Quoting LADobeLady:


Going out on a limb I see...I predict a run on potted meat, bread, beer and batteries.

Good Lord. That will raise the price of beer.........
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Hi...
Earlier someone mentioned that the newly emerged wave off W. Africa has been labeled PR127l or something like that.
What does that mean and what's the significance?
I'm not exactly sure if it really was "PR127l" but it's something along those lines.
Thanks.


Does anybody have an answer? I guess not?
Any ideas?

Thanks!
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1791. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
94L do not look like march to night
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Quoting PsychicMaria:


Models? I am no meteorologist. The work I perform is of much higher accuracy than the work of any form of scientist.
You have extrasensory stuff huh...tell me on what day I was born.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

I don't think this will happen considering you can't even see 94L right now but you can't rule out the possibility
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Quoting pottery:

heheheheh


Where is Gordon Gecko when you need him ? LOL
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Quoting PsychicMaria:
Hello all!

U.S. Mainland to Be Affected - August 2010:

1. Florida; east coast & panhandle
2. Gulf Coast; not including Texas
3. North/South Carolina; outer banks


Going out on a limb I see...I predict a run on potted meat, bread, beer and batteries.
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Quoting centex:
Wow, that sounds like a serious downcast to invest. Granted it's only 10% but many of us think that is only because development is not expected until after 48 hours.


My point is that if you look at the activity the last several days it has been very weak. Very little deep convection anywhere and a few small systems struggling to hold on. Not a downcast, just an objective observation. When a really well put together system comes along you will see a big difference between that and what we have seen of late.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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