Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting pottery:

I still cannot figure out what he/she was reacting to LOL


Well.. a reaction they got :)
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hey guys

ahh yes this might be taged pre-95L if it can last through the rest of the night and into the morning you know what I am going to start taging our AOI for Eg: this AOI I am showing you below if this continues will be tagged PRE-95L when the NHC tags it then the PRE will be removed and it will have it name in this case 95L



by the way we need to keep an eye on PGI-25L, PGI-27L, PGI-(WHAT IS THAT 26 OR 28 HMM ANY WAY THAT ONE) lol
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Quoting scott39:
Ive seen the tail end of a "thong" before, but never a Frong!


LOL i did it again.....typing fast.....LOL...it did the same thing a time back.......LMAO
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Quoting LADobeLady:


Hey now! FYI I got bit by one yesterday :P
Sorry to hear that. Lady....I always have and once again give you credit for being the genesis of the whole ant theory....six years ago. Be well...don't worry 'bout a thong, or frong...........
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1875. pottery
Quoting Orcasystems:


I didn't say he was a Troll. I said he was a iggit, for what he said to Pottery, whom I happen to like.

I still cannot figure out what he/she was reacting to LOL
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1873. will45
Quoting Tazmanian:
ugh run for your lives


we are doomed i tell ya Taz doomed
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ugh run for your lives
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sheesh. Telling people that their parents didn't pay attention to them, or telling people that they don't contribute to the blog well.. er doesn't contribute to the blog.
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Quoting btwntx08:

whs2012 is no troll :)


I didn't say he was a Troll. I said he was a iggit, for what he said to Pottery, whom I happen to like.
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Good grief what's going on here?

Anyhow the Gfdl looks scary anyone know how the model ecmwf looks? Thanks for that post on Alex.
Local Houston news folks are taking a wait and see approach
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
The damage is hopefully covered by insurance. I'm most concerned about one thing.............."Did you see any ants?"


Hey now! FYI I got bit by one yesterday :P
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Quoting RitaEvac:
What u up to danielle




just came in to see what was going on, about to go to bed... :)
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1861. centex
94L, notice the vorticity is already including west coast.

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1858. scott39
I see these black ants on my kitchen counter from time to time. Now im worried because they show up so often, that I wont know when a hurricane is coming!
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Good night everyone! Let's see what a wake up to.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1855. aquak9
a frong in the gom?

now I know how the newbies feel sometimes..
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1854. BDADUDE
Quoting pottery:

Must have been that sabre-toothed leaf that fell into the pool.!
Gotta watch-out for them for sure.......

Could have been. At the height of the storm a cloud blocked the sun and the wind gusted to at least 10kts!!
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They will take this blog next.They ripped Grothar last night.
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Evening all! Wow! 94L huh. Been away all day and hand not even looked at my cell phone. Amazing how fast things can blow up. We talked about watching the tailend of the Frong but, thought it might happen in the GOM!
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1846. breald
Quoting Orcasystems:


In the Navy.. same same.


huh...you learn something new everyday.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
I live in Bermuda and at the height of tropical storm Colin my car almost got wet and a leaf fell in my swimming pool.
The damage is hopefully covered by insurance. I'm most concerned about one thing.............."Did you see any ants?"
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looking at the setup at hand things are about to get very dynamic with the tropics. You have 94L which is at the time, highly weak and disorganized and 93L which is poised to become a Depression at any time in the next few days. 93L's convection is highly limited, and will need to work on that but obviously judging by the exposed LLC that the system is closed. ASCAT reveled on 94L that a broad circulation does exist, but very broad indeed. GFS forecasting shear to lesson in 94L's path and with very high SSTs (31C in some areas!) it has potential to become a Tropical Depression, probably stronger. If it traverses the entire GOMEX from Florida to Texas like the GFDL is showing all bets are off. 93L's a closer threat to develop, 94L's a bigger threat to the United States.
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1842. pottery
Quoting BDADUDE:

It was touch and go for a while.

Must have been that sabre-toothed leaf that fell into the pool.!
Gotta watch-out for them for sure.......
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Quoting scott39:
Ahh, You must have one of those magic eight ball toys. Everybody better pay attention then!!


lmao
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1839. smuldy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Plenty of areas to watch along with 94L.

Ya 126 could be interesting but after the last 2 weeks I'm ignoring all cape verde waves until they cross the Antilles
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Quoting 7544:
imo dry air got to 94l all the conv is wanning

93l also getting dry air

ok ready for a new invest can we get a real one this time lol


93L isn't even remotely done yet.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
1836. xcool
LMAO 7544


timing timing
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting breald:


hitting the rack? lol do you mean sack?


In the Navy.. same same.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Plenty of areas to watch along with 94L.



26L?>
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1831. scott39
Quoting PsychicMaria:


Models? I am no meteorologist. The work I perform is of much higher accuracy than the work of any form of scientist.
Ahh, You must have one of those magic eight ball toys. Everybody better pay attention then!!
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1830. will45
1822. PsychicMaria 11:06 PM EDT on August 08, 2010

Go down to Weather chat they really need a Psychic
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.