Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1930. JLPR2
Quoting extreme236:


*Rolls eyes at the idiocy of this post*


XD
Agreed, but if people say that after October I will be surprised.
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1928. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


Looks like a nice one off Africa.
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Courtesy of HPC

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Quoting sflawavedude:
94l poof already? jeez this season... (rolls eyes about predictions of overactivity). Typical hot humid week in south/southeast us. :)


*Rolls eyes at the idiocy of this post*
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
The Atlantic RGB in motion looks interesting tonight. Whats left of Colin looks to be heading wsw. 93L is also moving just s of west its staying weak so wonder if it might go a little farther west than expected.Lastly if anyone can pinpoint were 94L will spin up, coordinates please they will receive the Psychic Gordy award of the season. No money but highly prestigious IMO.
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Quoting whs2012:


I think there's a high pressure system. :/
forgive me,Im new
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1922. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
94l poof already? jeez this season... (rolls eyes about predictions of overactivity). Typical hot humid week in south/southeast us. :)
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BB in a few.....i will get all the graphics up in 94L .....let you all know when finished....sorry for being a SLACKER!
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1917. scott39
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


New immigration laws?
LOL, Yea thiers is a lot tougher!
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1916. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM DIANMU (T1004)
12:00 PM JST August 9 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In East China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Dianmu (985 hPa) located at 26.4N 125.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
==================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 30.9N 125.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/ Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 33.2N 125.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 36.8N 130.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

---
dang 50 knots.
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I wonder what next week will bring, in re: to any development?
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1914. scott39
Quoting whs2012:


I think there's a high pressure system. :/
That would make sense. Do you know if a trough is picking it up in the GOM or not?
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Looking at the water vapor imagery, the ULL that sheared Colin is going to have to undergo tropical transition for 94L to work. Any thoughts?
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Quoting scott39:
Whats keeping 94L from running off to Mexico?


New immigration laws?
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Edgar Cayce told me to ignore Maria.
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1908. scott39
Whats keeping 94L from running off to Mexico?
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If we just talk about the tropics all the other nonsense will vanish.
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Ossgss wouldn't want to be in front of that. Now that's a squall line.
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Quoting JLPR2:
I see I missed some drama, thank you God for facebook! XD


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Did you get Dr Grey to leave yet?




LOL! Y'all.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Been away all day and just looked at all the models ....Wow could not believe what the majors models are showing......as 80% of them are developing a nice storm in the GOM. Thing is its wrapping in very dry air now.





Very normal with TC developing like this, troughs usually have very dry air behind them and 94L's sucking it in. Once it begins to wrap out the dry air and enters into the GOMEX where SST's are in some spots 31C, with a low shear environment you can understand why the models develop it. 94L will probably not develop for another 50 hours or so.
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1901. pottery
Quoting whs2012:


Ignore and Flag! :)

Good!
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1900. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


Been away all day and just looked at all the models ....Wow could not believe what the majors models are showing......as 80% of them are developing a nice storm in the GOM. Thing is its wrapping in very dry air now.



Do you think the dry air could finish it?
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Quoting centex:
Ok guys/gals, what is so interesting in Colin and 93L? I guess if you like watching TC wind down or have family in shipping lanes it excites you.


We are able to observe the power and structure of a tropical cyclone without having to worry about the prospect of death and destruction. Sadly most storms that are powerful and awe inspiring on satellite are killers, and takes away any excitement for me. Human life is more valuable than a satellite image.
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1898. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
TROPICAL STORM ESTER (DIANMU)
11:00 AM PhST August 9 2010
=============================================

Tropical Storm ESTER further intensified further as it continues to move away from the country.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Ester "DIANMU"(1004) located at 25.9°N 125.6°E or 640 km north northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving north at 10 knots.

Additional Information
======================
All Public Storm Warning Signals are now lowered.

Tropical Storm "Ester" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over Luzon and the coastal waters over these areas will be rough and dangerous to small sea crafts and fishing boats.

Residents in low lying and mountainous areas over the western sections of Northern and Central Luzon are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

With this development, this is the final bulletin for this weather disturbance.
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1897. Ossqss
Possible Derecho tonight? L8R

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Quoting scott39:
What do you think 94L is going to do once in the GOM?


Been away all day and just looked at all the models ....Wow could not believe what the majors models are showing......as 80% of them are developing a nice storm in the GOM. Thing is its wrapping in very dry air now.



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1894. scott39
Quoting CosmicEvents:
"Ants In a Thong"...yikes, sounds like a pamphlet you might see at the ob-gyn office...or a horror movie.
A Cat5 is coming if thier is ants in your thong!
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1890. JLPR2
I see I missed some drama, thank you God for facebook! XD
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1889. centex
Ok guys/gals, what is so interesting in Colin and 93L? I guess if you like watching TC wind down or have family in shipping lanes it excites you.
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Quoting LADobeLady:


I have to say Cosmic in the 10 years I've lived in this house I never had ants try to get in. Except for that one time right before Katrina when they were swarming to get in here. Do I make plans based on that...nope, but it was interesting. Ants in a thong would be bad....
"Ants In a Thong"...yikes, sounds like a pamphlet you might see at the ob-gyn office...or a horror movie.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Sorry to hear that. Lady....I always have and once again give you credit for being the genesis of the whole ant theory....six years ago. Be well...don't worry 'bout a thong, or frong...........


I have to say Cosmic in the 10 years I've lived in this house I never had ants try to get in. Except for that one time right before Katrina when they were swarming to get in here. Do I make plans based on that...nope, but it was interesting. Ants in a thong would be bad....
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meno for the Admin plzs banned the trolls for the blog
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1882. scott39
Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL i did it again.....typing fast.....LOL...it did the same thing a time back.......LMAO
What do you think 94L is going to do once in the GOM?
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1881. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
Quoting pottery:

I still cannot figure out what he/she was reacting to LOL


Well.. a reaction they got :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.