Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

Share this Blog
4
+

Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1980 - 1930

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting TampaSpin:
The BAM models have a strange track forecast as they are usually just the opposite of what they are here
Usually the BAMD which is the darker shade is the furtherest North. As Stronger Storms move more Poleward which the BAMD should be doing but, does just the opposite.



Interesting
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sflawavedude:
Strong hurricane heading for tx/la? Panic?? i dont think so! not good to panic over an area of clouds that isnt forming. :)

addicted to similies and a troll wow
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
The BAM models have a strange track forecast as they are usually just the opposite of what they are here
Usually the BAMD which is the darker shade is the furtherest North. As Stronger Storms move more Poleward which the BAMD should be doing but, does just the opposite.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1977. xcool


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey guys and gals.. Been away for awhile but been coming back when i can.. I sure hope it stays quiet for awhile..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
nice blob in the gom heading south now maybe this will connect with the low with 94l then i could believe the gfdl as strong hurricane in the gom


Yep ... looks like it's setting up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
KoritheMan,you are the best
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1973. 7544
nice blob in the gom heading south now maybe this will connect with the low with 94l then i could believe the gfdl as strong hurricane in the gom
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1972. xcool
ha
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow look at invest 93L less t.storm with it that dry air getting in the center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Invest 94L Graphical Update
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1969. JLPR2
So everyone had to use the rest room?
XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Elway is pretty loaded, but he has a savvy for weather. He says he is looking at latest satellite of US and he sees a hurricane forming over Iowa and heading for Chicago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nola70119:


Good.


Trust me. At this juncture, that's very unlikely, and I'd give it a 2% chance of happening.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1966. JLPR2
Quoting nola70119:


Nothing nice here.....GFDL GOM


I would be in awe if that came to past. :O
Member Since: Posts: Comments:



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

no and no and who the hell is Elway
doesn't matter though it seems he may spend way too much time at the corner tavern
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Won't happen.


Good, but not good for me, according to your own analysis.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1961. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nola70119:


Nothing nice here.....GFDL GOM


Won't happen.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Nothing nice here.....GFDL GOM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
New 48hr RUC shows a GOM System, albeit not to strong.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1957. will45
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just got the blog section of my website with all the graphics of 94L posted now if anyone was needing.....I did not see a floater on 94L ......am i wrong?


i just looked on floater site and its not listed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sounds like a good old drinking buddy to have if you ask me. That's right I'm suppose to out of here this blog has that effect sometimes. Just when you think your out they pull you back in. Good night all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No floater on 94L yet. Looks like we will get some rain TS, I live in Trinity/Palm Harbor area, good to hear from ya again, I'll be watching this one, but so far we should be fine as usual.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1953. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I just got the blog section of my website with all the graphics of 94L posted now if anyone was needing.....I did not see a floater on 94L ......am i wrong?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Could be right DB this is a messy situation taking me back to 1992. I hope that Elway guy isn't PhysicMaria father.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1950. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sflawavedude:
Strong hurricane heading for tx/la? Panic?? i dont think so! not good to panic over an area of clouds that isnt forming. :)
Im thinking some umbrella time myself.Hopefully nothing more.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1946. gator23
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1945. gator23
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Thanks, Gator. I'll tell Elway to sit down and have another brew. He is a seasoned old timer with connections to lots of "weather experts".

Tell Elway we we have an anemic invest that will probably not make it to tropical storm status. And to stop panicking because if he chooses to live in along the East/Gulf coast he will have to deal with hurricanes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Strong hurricane heading for tx/la? Panic?? i dont think so! not good to panic over an area of clouds that isnt forming. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well out for tonight. Slight retraction but still interesting Colin LLC is still heading north but it looks to have spun off a MLC heading wsw. You can see on Colin's RGB in motion at the NHC site. Oh and you New Yorkers sleep tight and don't let the bed bugs bite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sflawavedude:
94l poof already? jeez this season... (rolls eyes about predictions of overactivity). Typical hot humid week in south/southeast us. :)


"poofcaster"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whs2012:
Not that I want to from what I've heard, but how would you even get to Tropics Chat? Is that on this website?
Top right of comment box
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gordydunnot:
The Atlantic RGB in motion looks interesting tonight. Whats left of Colin looks to be heading wsw. 93L is also moving just s of west its staying weak so wonder if it might go a little farther west than expected.Lastly if anyone can pinpoint were 94L will spin up, coordinates please they will receive the Psychic Gordy award of the season. No money but highly prestigious IMO.


I'am putting my money on the ULL being the spin 94L needs to get going, wrapping the frontal boundary moisture, then dropping pressure when it hits the GOM with all that hot water fueling convection. You can see it starting to happen right now on water vapor imagery. Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1937. whs2012
Not that I want to from what I've heard, but how would you even get to Tropics Chat? Is that on this website?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1936. xcool
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1934. whs2012
Quoting Couillon:
Ya,I meant the mexico thing.Just used your quote


Oh lol.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1933. xcool
HA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whs2012:


Ummm...I'm not Maria. I think she got banned. Hopefully.
Ya,I meant the mexico thing.Just used your quote
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1930. JLPR2
Quoting extreme236:


*Rolls eyes at the idiocy of this post*


XD
Agreed, but if people say that after October I will be surprised.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1980 - 1930

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.