Monsoon floods and landslides ravage China, India, and Pakistan; Colin still weak

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:31 PM GMT on August 08, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin continues to take its time reaching Bermuda, but should finally move past the island today as the steering currents pushing the storm northward strengthen. Colin is still suffering from wind shear and dry air being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over Colin today, but the storm is so disorganized that it is unlikely to increase in strength more than about 10 mph before blowing past Bermuda tonight. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with the level-level center exposed to view and displaced to the north of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity. The intensity and areal coverage of Colin's thunderstorms have shown a modest increase in the past few hours. Rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 50 knots, tonight through Tuesday, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status. Colin may bring 40 mph winds to the southeast corner of Newfoundland on Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Colin from the Bermuda radar.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is moving west-northwest at 10 mph. This wave has plenty of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, thanks to dry air and wind shear of 10 - 20 knots affecting it due to a large upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear is expected to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next four days, which may allow 93L to become a tropical storm. NHC is giving a 60% chance 93L will become a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. Both the GFDL and HWRF models predict 93L will develop, and the GFDL predicts the storm will become a hurricane. This storm will probably recurve out to sea, and only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Figure 2. Monsoon floods in Pakistan destroyed this section of the Karakoram Highway last week. Image credit: Pamir Times.

The deadly 2010 monsoon kills hundreds in China and India over the weekend
The Asian Southwest Monsoon has hit yet another nation with extreme rains and deadly flooding. Northwest China's Gansu province was hard hit with torrential monsoon rains yesterday, and the resulting flooding and landslides claimed at least 127 lives. Over the past two weeks, at least 1,600 people have perished in Pakistan's monsoon floods, which some have called Pakistan's Katrina. At least 137 died in floods and landslides in the neighboring Indian state of Kashmir over the weekend, and monsoon flooding and landslides have also killed at least 65 people in Afghanistan in the past two weeks. Dave's Landslide blog has some great discussions of the flooding and destruction wrought by the terrible monsoon rains this year in Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, and China. I plan to write much more about this year's deadly monsoon later this week.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a third day
Smoke from wildfires cause by the worst heat wave in Russia's history are choking Moscow for a third straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to three times the safe level and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. However, air pollution is not quite as bad as it was yesterday, when carbon monoxide levels peaked at 6.5 times the safe level. Visibilities at Moscow's airport were higher today (500+ meters), but temperatures still hit 97°F (36°C). The past 26 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in Friday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 3, the Russian heat wave of 2010 is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 3. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Next post
I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting smuldy:
sorry for a noob question but an anticyclonic loop would be a 360 degree loop path beginning south and east right? if wrong what would it be then?
thanks in advance google failed me on this one


I don't know if it starts a particular place. But you may be right. I always thought it meant clockwise flow.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2029. xcool
homelesswanderer .BASE OFF gfs data
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Quoting xcool:
GFDL


A LOT better this run. Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2027. smuldy
sorry for a noob question but an anticyclonic loop would be a 360 degree loop path beginning south and east right? if wrong what would it be then?
thanks in advance google failed me on this one
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2025. xcool
0Z ECMWF weak 94L
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2024. xcool
GFDL
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Quoting xcool:
hmm
What you got x?
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Sitting in the back of my mind is the infamous ULL and Bonnie.

Troughiness? Maybe, looking at obs.

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Good nite everyone.......i am out. See you all today but closer to the first PM then the first AM.......LOL
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after reviewing the floater sat of 93L very closely I see that 93L is now moving WSW-S of dew W if 93L continues that movement or even a mor southerly movement then 93L will do good

I looked on the

rb loop
rgb loop
ir2 loop
avn loop

they all confirm

00Z lat & long 23.1N 46.2W now at 0515 utc at22.8N 74.5W
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2019. xcool
hmm
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Quoting IKE:
I think..."just wait til"....and "next week", will be used again today.

And there's a positive MJO in the Atlantic basin now.....







Just isn't quite ripe yet, no matter how much Mjo is Mjo'ing. MJO enhances activity but, TOO many limiting factors right now that contradict. Till these troughs and TUTT's clear out, NUTTIN.
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Quoting wfyweather:
Im off to bed. Night yall
Im not far behind you,night
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Quoting IKE:
I think..."just wait til"....and "next week", will be used again today.

And there's a positive MJO in the Atlantic basin now.....







Is it the 15th yet?

Darn it.

Nope.

Ciao.
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Im off to bed. Night yall
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2014. xcool
ECMWF next
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Quoting jaevortex:
sheesh it's been raining not stop today in south florida

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/southeast_loop.php
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IKE you right,I know Im going to get prepared.I try to get my own opinion based on the knowledge of others.Thats what I like about the WU.
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2011. xcool
Time goes by so slowly
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sheesh it's been raining not stop today in south florida
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2009. xcool
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2008. IKE
I think..."just wait til"....and "next week", will be used again today.

And there's a positive MJO in the Atlantic basin now.....





Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting xcool:
:0
I think we might get some bad weather.
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2006. xcool
:0
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NHC absolutely nailed the two
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Quoting nolacane2009:


it also looks like 93L will be a strong Hurricane Curving out into the Atlantic


Yeah. Hope none of it comes to pass.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Ok y'all. The CMC takes a Pacific hurricane into the GOM and back into Mexico? Lol. Link


it also looks like 93L will be a strong Hurricane Curving out into the Atlantic
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2002. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 9 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN IS AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF
PRESSURE LOCATED NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA MOVING NORTHWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. REGENERATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAINT AUGUSTINE FLORIDA IS INTERACTING WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
AND PROXIMITY TO LAND ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THOUGH CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Ike, I giggled.
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Ok y'all. The CMC takes a Pacific hurricane into the GOM and back into Mexico? Lol. Link
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1999. IKE
00Z CMC....


lol....93L.....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1998. xcool
MODELS HAVE HARD TIMEING development 94L .
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Quoting xcool:
Couillon .lets seeing Possible strong tropical .
More north would better with low TCHP?
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What does everyone think about the blob in the GOM?
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1995. xcool
Couillon .lets seeing Possible strong tropical .
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1994. 7544
gom blob looks intense seems to be moving sse ?
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6730
1993. xcool
JLPR2 just ghosts that all.
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Xcool, what you think about 94l?
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1991. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


haha 384hr yeah ok GFS

ghost storms


and some strong ghosts those are. XD
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I dont care about btwn!!!
That blob in the north central gulf looks better than anything out there! I'd watch that.:)
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1988. xcool


haha 384hr yeah ok GFS

ghost storms
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Quoting btwntx08:
actually that gfdl could happen if it develops in the gom low shear and hot sst i give it 30
% of it happening


The Gfdl model is very interesting even if it doesnt happen.
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1984. xcool
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Quoting JLPR2:


I would be in awe if that came to past. :O


I would be in North Dakota if that came to pass. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1982. JavPR

the eatl wave looks nice...

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1981. Inyo
Well, so far the official 'active season' hurricane forecasts haven't been any more accurate than a random internet 'psychic'. Maybe that will change, but hopefully it doesn't. The Gulf has had enough to deal with as it is.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
The BAM models have a strange track forecast as they are usually just the opposite of what they are here
Usually the BAMD which is the darker shade is the furtherest North. As Stronger Storms move more Poleward which the BAMD should be doing but, does just the opposite.



Interesting
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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