Caribbean disturbance very unimpressive; Arizona watches Otis

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:03 PM GMT on September 30, 2005

Share this Blog
0
+

Caribbean disturbance
The tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea has lost almost all of its deep convection this afternoon, and is not a threat to develop into a tropical depression today. Surface pressures are still falling over this area (see the pressure plot from buoy 42056 about 100 miles southeast of Cancun, Mexico), and the disturbance still has a well-defined surface circulation. However, unless the disturbance can fire up some more deep convection by midnight tonight, it will probably totally fall apart and no longer be a threat to the Gulf Coast.

Wind shear over the system is mostly unchanged at 5 - 10 knots, but a slight bit of extra shear from easterly winds blowing from the Yucatan Peninsula has disrupted the system this afternoon. There is no real change to the forecast--shear is expected to remain the same or decrease as the system moves northwest towards the Yucatan Peninsula or Western Cuba. Given the disturbance's almost total lack of deep convection, Sunday is the earliest I would expect it to be able to develop into a depression. The odds are now 40% at best that this system will develop into a depression at all.

If the system does manage to develop, the Mexican Gulf Coast or Texas look like the most likely targets. The GFDL, which forecasted intensification into a Category 1 hurricane with last night's run, now says the disturbance won't develop at all. Only the Canadian model thinks the disturbance will develop. This model takes the system into the Texas/Mexican border region on Tuesday.


Figure 1. BAMM and GFDL track forecasts.

Hurricane Otis threatening Baja and Arizona
Arizona and Mexico's Baja Peninsula are watching Hurricane Otis, which is strengthening as moves northwest parallel to the Baja Peninsula. Otis is currently a Category 1 hurricane with top winds of 85 mph, but is steadily strengthening, and could attain Category 3 status on Saturday. A wind speed of 46 mph with a gust to 61 mph was reported at Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula today.


Figure 2. Hurricane Otis.

Otis is taking a path very close to the Baja coast, where a narrow tongue of warm water will enable it to maintain hurricane intensity at a much further north point than most East Pacific hurricanes are able to. A hurricane watch has been issued for much of the Baja Peninsula, and this will be upgraded to a hurricane warning on Saturday. Otis is expected to cross the Baja Peninsula Sunday, and quickly weaken to a tropical storm as it moves up the Gulf of California towards Arizona. By Monday, the remains of Otis should cause 3 - 5 inches of rain to fall over southern Arizona, creating flash flooding problems.

TD 19
The tropical disturbance about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands developed an impressive blow-up of thunderstorms near its center of circulation this afternoon. With good spiral banding and upper-level outflow channels beginning to form, NHC decided to upgrade this system to Tropical Depression 19. This depression has a favorable environment to strengthen, and will become Tropical Storm Stan on Saturday, and probably Hurricane Stan early next week. The system is expected to move slowly northwest for the next five days and not threaten any land areas.

Southeast U.S.
Several of the global computer models continue to forecast that a tropical storm may form near the Bahama Islands on Monday or Tuesday. Any system forming in this region would be forced westward or west-southwestward into the Southeast Coast by a strong ridge of high pressure building in. There are no signs yet of any development occurring in the Bahamas, and the chances of a tropical storm forming in this region as forecast are probably around 20%.

Hawaii
Tropical Depression Kenneth dissipated 35 miles east of the Big Island. The remnants of Kenneth will bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding to the islands Saturday.

China
Super Typhoon Langwang, a small but intense typhoon with 140 mph sustained winds, is headed towards China and may hit Taiwan as a Category 3 storm on Sunday. Longwang is expected to gradually weaken but still hit mainland China on Monday as a Category 1 storm.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 356 - 306

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

356. Amorris
1:36 PM GMT on October 19, 2005
anyone think the storm could hit more north in FL tampa or more north?
355. guygee
3:31 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
thanks tornadoty
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
354. tornadoty
3:29 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Dr. Masters has a new post.
353. guygee
3:19 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
The low in the vicinity of 19N 86W looks like it is bound to drift across the Yucatan, maybe ending up in the Bay of Campeche. Climatologically, it is getting near that time of year when it is not that unusual for systems to linger in the Bay of Campeche, sometimes dieing there from upwelling, like 1995 Roxanne:

Link

Conditions sem somewhat similar, although if the current trough approaching the western Gulf passes over TD 20 or just partially grabs the cyclone Mexico or Southeast Texas could be threatened. The waters in the Bay seem to be cooler on the west Yucatan coast, but get warmer towards the west.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
352. marric77
3:19 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Hi I'm located in South central Louisiana and have been enjoying all your information through Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Now I have a question where do you all find the pictures that show all the computer model tracks that the storms can? Reading these blogs are very addicting. Katrina passed to the east of us and Rita passed to the west. Now I wonder if a strike 3 to Louisiana would be a bulls eye for us.
Member Since: October 1, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
351. StormJunkie
3:03 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
19 and 20 are two different things. 20 is in the Carib and may move over the Yuc. 19 is going out to sea. 19 will likely get named and 20 may, but I am even more uncertain as to wether it will get named prior to moving over the Yuc.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
350. olefosse
2:58 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
I'll post this link here as well.... What do you folks here think about the water temperatures displayed here. I myself am willing to predict good chances for a solid revitalisation of the TD19 system if it is able to crawl over the Yucatan and remain somewhat intact when it gets into the western part of the Gulf.
Ref. this: Link
The dry air over the Gulf is also clearly dissipating.
349. primez
2:51 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Alpha will be used this year...
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
348. Buhdog
2:51 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
they fixed it..
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
347. hurricanewayne
2:49 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
OK who is the guy running the NHC web site?? they had TD 20 up now they took that down and put back TD 19??????
346. tornadoty
2:44 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
We are probably going to have Stan and Tammy at the end of the day, and if a Bahamian system does develop, that would be Vince. I am now convinced to stick with my prediction of 24 storms.
345. primez
2:41 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
It's there.

They pulled this error with Rita and Phillipe, too.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
344. IKE
2:39 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
I guess td19 in the far eastern Atlantic dissipated.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
343. IKE
2:38 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Im surprised td 20 isn't forecast to get picked up by a cold front coming down next Wednesday/Thursday. Apparently it isn't forecast to be strong enough to grab it. Looks like a Mexican storm...as of now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
342. 8888888889gg
2:31 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
hey all we now have TD 20 but i would like to no where did TD 19 go is it that there too or not?
341. Buhdog
2:30 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
anyone notice that the nhc lists #19 as #20 now???? typo I guess
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
340. Buhdog
2:27 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
uk and nogaps put a system in the middle gulf at the end of there runs....interesting.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 960
339. aquak9
2:24 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
And here's a question that'll take the rest of the day to answer: What's it gonna do, and where's it gonna go?
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26675
338. tornadoty
2:16 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Not a couple banding features, mind you, but SEVERAL. This sucker is already a storm.
337. tornadoty
2:15 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Here is another excerpt from the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook. The bold part is what I found to be very interesting:

CARIBBEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED JUST SW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
AN UPPER LOW NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ARE PRODUCING STRONG NLY
SHEAR OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE MOSTLY
N OF 16N W OF 75W IN THE BEST UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND NEAR THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE W CARIBBEAN. A 1006 MB LOW...AS
DESCRIBED IN SPECIAL FEATURES...IS NEAR 19N86W AND HAS A BURST
OF CONVECTION OVER IT THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SEVERAL BANDING
FEATURES.
THE E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES...E OF ABOUT
67W...ARE UNDER THE SUBSIDENT REGIME OF THE UPPER LOW NE OF THE
AREA AND ITS TRAILING TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS TO ISLA
MARGARITA...SO SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY
LIGHT. WETTER-THAN-AVERAGE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE W
CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHILE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES IN THE E CARIBBEAN. ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE IN THE
LESSER ANTILLES WHERE A LITTLE UPPER INSTABILITY COULD ENHANCE
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
336. tornadoty
2:11 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Houstonian, I think it is already a weak storm, so here's my prediction: Off the coast of Merida, MX (northern tip of Yucatan), cat. 2 (with a possibility of cat. 3), same time as yours, landfall eventually between Corpus Christi and Brownsville, wiht lower chances from Port Arthur to Corpus Christi, and Brownsville to Tampico, MX. The path will be much like Emily's, but shifted just a bit farther north. My odds on all of this are 11-1, because of the high number of variables, so stay tuned...
335. guygee
12:29 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
WillJax - Cool. Many interesting philospohical statements above. From what I have read, scientists know only know the orbit of the Earth with any resonable precision back to about 5 MYA, and beyond 50 MYA it is unknowable due to its chaotic nature.
Here is a link to one recent paper (abstract only):

Link

Scientists in the field consider both weather and climate as chaotic, any order we can perceive may be due to basins of attraction, which can be shifting due to long-term forcing trends (insolation, atmospheric changes, radioactive decay in the Earth's core...)

As for "where" we are, here, there, anywhere...special relativity says it is no place special, meteorology and paleoclimatology tell us what matters is our relative distance and orientation to Ole' Sol...and whatever other astronomical bodies that are nearby or may have come blasting through in the past.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3200
334. IKE
12:04 PM GMT on October 01, 2005
Per the 8:05 am EDST Atlantic discussion on blobby jr....."1006 mb low is located over the NW Caribbean near 19n85w moving
WNW about 5 kt. The low appears to be a little better organized
than earlier today with increasing banding features. In
addition pressures have been slowly falling near the low
center. This system has the potential to become a tropical
cyclone within 36 hours or near Yucatan or the srn Gulf. An
upper low is NW of the surface low... somewhat hindering its
development but all models suggest this upper feature will fade
with time and create more ridge aloft after the low enters the
Gulf of Mexico in a day or two."

I think the key is..does it go over the Yucatan OR does it go more NW into the gulf? There is still a front coming down on Thursday. Does it pick junior up...like Opal did OR does it continue west. Models have it going west. Time will tell.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
333. olefosse
10:23 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
The amount of dry air over the gulf seems to be dissipating quickly as the depression near Yucatan is organizing quickly. This should pave the way for it to strengthen if it passes the peninsula and continues north/northwestward, and I think this makes it far more likely than before that it can make it to greater more than a CAT1 if it continues to organize and enters the gulf at TD or higher strength.
331. WillJax
7:51 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
Good night guys, see ya tomm.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
330. WillJax
7:50 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
Well the year is not an exact thing. Technically it varies every year. 365.25 days is realyl a running decimal, and even then its just an average year.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
329. StormJunkie
7:47 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
My cousin is getting married tomorrow so after all the free food and liquer I would suck worse than normal.lol.

Night all.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
328. dashwildwood
7:46 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
go WVU :) later
327. cirrocumulus
7:46 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
Goodnight! Goodnight MRF, GFS, and other models. Give us some better runs because otherwise I'm using climatology in combination with you and not you alone!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
326. leftyy420
7:45 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
thats a low pressure system that has been sheared by the ull for days now. yeah will need to watch the nc blob som as well. well sj i am off as well. if ur home tomm we can do lilhalo after 3pm. gotta watch that vt game peace yall
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
325. StormJunkie
7:42 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
Not whipped, she just has too work in the morning and all my good stuff is in the sleeping room.lol.

It is out. What is that large area of convection to the SE of the ULL? And I see we still have that small blob off the NC coast.

Will read comments then it is goodnight to all.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
324. dashwildwood
7:42 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
cirro the mrf is a heartbreaker, last winter it liked to blow up large east coast storms only to have them vanish a few runs later
323. cirrocumulus
7:41 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
I shouldn't have given too much credence to the MRF on Galveston precipitation. Or maybe I should have gave it more. We'll see.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
322. WillJax
7:40 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
Yep, hang around long enough and you'll see some pretty crazy stuff.

We shouldn't cut ourselves short, though. Gravity effects everything in the Universe to the extent that a gravitational event here will ever so slightly effect stars far beyond out sight. In other words, yes we matter...ever ever ever so slightly ;)
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
321. dashwildwood
7:40 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
will wouldnt that mean the shorter time for the earth to spin once plus leap year would equal the extra time it takes to circle the sun?
320. leftyy420
7:38 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
sj its out
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
319. dashwildwood
7:38 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
i agree lefty i think this winter is going to be a good one for the east coast, ive been drinking some of joe bastardis cool aid again LOL and he has started to drop hints that this winter will be comperable to the 95-96 winter where alot of record cold and snowy winters were set(i think thats right)
318. cirrocumulus
7:38 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
Yes. It is extremes. And it is moderates. In temperate climates there are tornadoes. In tropical ones hurricanes. Averages too. Remember to enjoy the good days in between the extremes. Heck enjoy the extremes. Amarillo gets extremes all the time. But damn near average is extremely rare except that there are an average no. of actually average days!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
317. leftyy420
7:37 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
lol some one is whipped lol

dunno she be soon
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
316. weatherbuff64
7:37 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
here are some statistics of the length of a day and length of a year:

It takes 365.256 days for the Earth to travel around the Sun and 23.9345 hours for the Earth rotate a complete revolution
315. leftyy420
7:36 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
yeah dash, we had alot of system,s that either moved to our south or to our north. we only got one direct hit lol. think we got 8-10inches with that one. i expect this winter to be very cold and wett. maybe a couple nor'easters lol. man i love a good nor'easter
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
314. cirrocumulus
7:35 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
Check out the MRF 9 panel. At weather.unisys. It claims to have studied recent climatology. Just kidding! Anyways that's what it looks like. I actually like it because it gives Galveston, Savannah, Richmond and other areas rain soon. I know Ophelia didn't sweep all the area but watch the doppler map fill in around eastern N.C!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
313. StormJunkie
7:35 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
Shhhhh. Naw, as that is in the same room. Where is that image?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
312. dashwildwood
7:34 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
yea the winter here in NC was just a tiny bit above, its been downhill after that
311. leftyy420
7:34 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
lol no halo sj
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
310. dashwildwood
7:33 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
weather is a collection of random events and extremes, it always will be. man has decided to quantify these events with averages, which is why when something is supposedly out of the ordinary its such a big thing but in the larger scheme of things its another ordinary extreme
309. leftyy420
7:32 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
winter wasn'tto dry i guess. for dec thru march we were down 2 inches but marhc thru april was above average in precip but the summer was dry
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
308. cirrocumulus
7:30 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
I've seen the drought map but I also like the doppler map. Models, climatology, meteorology, astronomy,and theories of the universe combine. Nietzsche said: We knowers are unknown to ourselves and for a good reason: how can we ever hope to find what we have never looked for?
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
307. StormJunkie
7:29 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
Nice philisophical discussion though. Would participate if my typing was not so loud.lol.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
306. WillJax
7:26 AM GMT on October 01, 2005
That's the thing...out of Chaos came order. But the thing is, on what level are we perceiving order, the macro level may be chaotic. Or what seems to be chaos on the macro level may be part of a bigger order.

It's pretty hard for us to imagine these things. For starters, no one on the planet even knows where "here" is.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33

Viewing: 356 - 306

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron