Bermuda eyes a weak Colin; new extreme heat record for Belarus

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and could bring tropical storm force winds to the island tonight. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development, as the storm is being affected by dry being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots, but Colin has not yet been able to take advantage of the low shear. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with limited heavy thunderstorm activity. What few intense thunderstorms Colin has have been pushed over to the east side of the storm by yesterday's high wind shear, and the rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate today as Colin makes its closest pass by Bermuda. This may allow the storm to intensify to a 50 mph tropical storm before it moves past Bermuda early Sunday morning. The shear will increase again on Sunday as Colin heads out to sea, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 850 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range the next five days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFS model shows some weak development of 93L occurring early next week. This storm will probably only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.

Belarus records its hottest temperature in history
The European nation of Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history yesterday, August 6, when the mercury hit 38.7°C (101.7°F) in Gorky. The previous record was 38.0°C (100.4°F) set at Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a second day
Smoke from wildfires caused by the worst heat wave in Russia's history have choked Moscow for a second straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to six times the safe mark and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. Visibilities dropped as low as 325 meters at Moscow's airport today, as temperatures hit 97°F (36°C). The past 25 days in a row have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in yesterday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 2, the Russian heat wave of this year is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 heat wave, though the population affected by the two heat waves is probably similar.


Figure 2. A comparison of temperature anomalies for August 2003, the peak of the great European heat wave of that year (left), with July temperature anomalies from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right). This year's heat wave in Russia is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe than the 2003 heat wave. The 2003 heat wave caused approximately 40,000 premature deaths. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Commentary
Belarus' new all-time extreme heat record gives the year 2010 the most national extreme heat records for a single year--seventeen. These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. Looking back at the past decade, which was the hottest decade in the historical record, Seventy-five countries set extreme hottest temperature records (33% of all countries.) For comparison, fifteen countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). My source for extreme weather records is the excellent book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. His new updates (not yet published) remove a number of old disputed records.

Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. For example, one of 2007's fifteen extreme hottest temperature records is for the U.S.--the 129°F recorded at Death Valley that year. Most weather record books list 1913 as the year the hottest temperature in the U.S. occurred, when Greenland Ranch in Death Valley hit 134°F. However, as explained in a recent Weatherwise article, that record is questionable, since it occurred during a sandstorm when hot sand may have wedged against the thermometer, artificially inflating the temperature. Mr. Burt's list of 225 countries with extreme heat records includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.

Earth has now seen four consecutive months with its warmest temperature on record, and the first half of 2010 was the warmest such 6-month period in the planet's history. It is not a surprise that many all-time extreme heat records are being shattered when the planet as a whole is so warm. Global warming "loads the dice" to favor extreme heat events unprecedented in recorded history.

National heat records set in 2010
Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history on Saturday, August 7, when the mercury hit 38.9°C (102°F) in Gomel. This broke the all-time record for extreme heat set just one day before, the 38.7°C (101.7°F) recorded in Gorky. Prior to 2010, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Belarus was the 38.0°C (100.4°F) in Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946.

Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk on August 1, 2010. Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk.

Cyprus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 1, 2010 when the mercury hit 46.6°C (115.9°F) at Lefconica. The old record for Cyprus was 44.4°C (111.9°F) at Lefkosia in August 1956. An older record of 46.6°C from July 1888 was reported from Nicosia, but is of questionable reliability.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old record for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.

Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.

Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.

The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.

Colombia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).

National cold records set in 2010
One nation has set a record for its coldest temperature in history in 2010. Guinea had its coldest temperature in history in January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region.

Next post
I'll have an update Sunday. There are many important weather stories I've neglected to cover of late, such as the floods in Pakistan, which I hope to talk about in the coming week.

Jeff Masters

heavy smog from forest fires near Moscow (slava31)
heavy smog from forest fires near Moscow

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Appears to be in the mid-levels.

Not really sure why the NHC refuses to mention it.


I'm hoping for a mention on the 2pm TWO, but we'll see.
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Hello, A few sprinkles and lots of thunder on the East Coast of FL...
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Ok so Colin is teasing Bermuda today - for the most part today has been nothing special. In fact if the surf wasn't slightly elevated along south shore you would have no idea there was a tropical system to our south. It looks like some rain is looming to the south right now so that all might change in a hurry. I find it interesting that there are people swimming on the beaches despite High surf warnings telling people not to go into the water and the lack of lifeguard presence.
Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 525
49. SLU
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Kind of resembles pre-Dean of 2007




lol

That comment wasn't original.


2199. SLU 12:17 PM AST on August 07, 2010

Pre-Dean also had a very similar structure.
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Quoting extreme236:


You can see some sort of circulation at 28W on the east side of the system. Very much like Dean.


Appears to be in the mid-levels.

Not really sure why the NHC refuses to mention it.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Kind of resembles pre-Dean of 2007




You can see some sort of circulation at 28W on the east side of the system. Very much like Dean.
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44. SLU
Quoting hydrus:
A friend of mine was in the Dry Tortugas when Allen was moving through the Yucatan Channel. 90 mph gusts snapped an anchor line and broke both of his arms..ouch


Oh my! It was a very nasty hurricane no matter how you look at it. Pretty much an old school hurricane Ivan type system.
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Kind of resembles pre-Dean of 2007


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Quoting bakers:
surely, oh powerful man must be responsible for that record heat. why it could not possibly be anything else.


I suppose it could be something else, but so far nothing else comes remotely close to fitting the overhwhelming data. Do you have any ideas?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
Quoting leo305:
interesting COLIN is moving east.. makes you wonder if it can miss the trough and recurve to the south west


Colin's LLC is moving east back under the convection again... just like yesterday. DejaVu?
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Here is the track that the NCAR WRF takes Colin on:




Not even worth posting the simulated satellite brightness images or the reflectivity images since it keeps it as a naked swirl.
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maybe some weak development around florida in the next few days.
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Quoting SLU:
To stormfury:

Here's the man himself .. MH ALLEN. Most powerful hurricane to strike St. Lucia in recorded history. 115kts/135mph.

A friend of mine was in the Dry Tortugas when Allen was moving through the Yucatan Channel. 90 mph gusts snapped an anchor line and broke both of his arms..ouch
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 19501
surely, oh powerful man must be responsible for that record heat. why it could not possibly be anything else.
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interesting COLIN is moving east.. makes you wonder if it can miss the trough and recurve to the south west
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Although strong convection is lacking on 93L and the CV AOI, both areas continue to become better organized and I believe both of these areas have a decent shot at becoming a tropical cyclone.
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Yay! An update!
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The Big Picture (made earlier today by me):
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TS Colin is showing signs of organization, as the Doc said, 10 knots of shear over the system now, I think COlin is trying to take advantage of these conditions, impressive convection developing and potentially trying to envelope the circulation. Also could outflow on the SE quadrant of the storm. Wave near 30W is developing better convection after losing it the last 6 hours do to DMIN. Could be an interesting day ahead or two or three.
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The NHC should mention the CV wave at 2:00....doubt it though.

Even though 93L looks to be a threat to shipping, its something to track.

The CV wave may have a better shot at affecting land down the road.
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I agree with most of you that the area SE of 93L
is something worth watching. It has good convection and seems to continue in organization which seems likely considering conditions are favorable ahead of (future 94L).Colin getting sheared apart the last few days. Models haven't been very consistent this year, they shift around
with 93L as they did with other systems.
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I wouldn't say the models are terrible, just inconsistent. THe system around 30W/13N is very intriguing, I would put the odds of a tropical storm developing in the next 48 hours at a high chance of 60%, given the current structure of this surface low as well as the presence of a surface circulation present with good convection.
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The CMC tries to develop the cv wave.
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MODIS caught a nice view of 93L a short while ago.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13256
Well I have a few errands to do and given the quiet conditions out there this is a good time to run out. I will check in later to see how the feature near 30W is doing.

BFN
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18. 7544
looks like the cmc kills 93l and developes pre94l and it heads west west Link
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Thanks for update! Dr.Masters
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Quoting kmanislander:


The models were also quite far off in how they developed many of the Invests once they were tagged. Nearly every one was ramped up to hurricane status only to fizzle away far short of the mark.


yea the forecast models have been terrible this season
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


can you say Alex and Bonnie?

Only 1 model each forecasted their development. ECMWF for Alex and the CMC for Bonnie


The models were also quite far off in how they developed many of the Invests once they were tagged. Nearly every one was ramped up to hurricane status only to fizzle away far short of the mark.
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93L occurring early next week. This storm will probably only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I agree with you on that. Many a storm has developed even though the models did not pick up on them initially.


Yes, it is showing strong signs of organization. Microwave imagery of the system is pretty impressive.
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12. SLU
To stormfury:

Here's the man himself .. MH ALLEN. Most powerful hurricane to strike St. Lucia in recorded history. 115kts/135mph.

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Thanks Doc.

Any more info on the possibility of a backyard storm forming in the GOM from the trough hanging around the area?
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Quoting kmanislander:


I agree with you on that. Many a storm has developed even though the models did not pick up on them initially.


can you say Alex and Bonnie?

Only 1 model each forecasted their development. ECMWF for Alex and the CMC for Bonnie
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hey doc!!,what do you think about the chances of a gom TC this week???a local met here in swfl calling for a possible tropical low to form in the eastern gom or over fl and track westerly either late weekend early next week!!!!
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Quoting Drakoen:
Wave southwest of the CV islands deserves some attention too despite the lack of computer model support.


I agree with you on that. Many a storm has developed even though the models did not pick up on them initially.
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Wave southwest of the CV islands deserves some attention too despite the lack of computer model support.
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nothing about the wave behind 93L?
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thanks doc for morning update

lol
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Thanks Dr Masters for the update....
Looks like soon to be 94L could be trouble for sure....

Taco :o)
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...no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.


Thanks, still sort of a lull in TC build up, but watching closely from here in the Islands.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5984

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.