Bermuda eyes a weak Colin; new extreme heat record for Belarus

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:19 PM GMT on August 07, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and could bring tropical storm force winds to the island tonight. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development, as the storm is being affected by dry being pumped in from an upper-level low pressure system to the west. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots, but Colin has not yet been able to take advantage of the low shear. Recent satellite imagery shows that Colin is a disorganized system, with limited heavy thunderstorm activity. What few intense thunderstorms Colin has have been pushed over to the east side of the storm by yesterday's high wind shear, and the rains from these thunderstorms can be seen approaching Bermuda on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain low to moderate today as Colin makes its closest pass by Bermuda. This may allow the storm to intensify to a 50 mph tropical storm before it moves past Bermuda early Sunday morning. The shear will increase again on Sunday as Colin heads out to sea, and it is unlikely that the storm will ever attain hurricane status.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 850 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 knots, and is expected to stay in the moderate range the next five days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFS model shows some weak development of 93L occurring early next week. This storm will probably only be a concern to shipping interests. There are no other areas of concern the models are showing for the next seven days.

Belarus records its hottest temperature in history
The European nation of Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history yesterday, August 6, when the mercury hit 38.7°C (101.7°F) in Gorky. The previous record was 38.0°C (100.4°F) set at Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 chokes Moscow with smoke for a second day
Smoke from wildfires caused by the worst heat wave in Russia's history have choked Moscow for a second straight day today, bringing air pollution levels to six times the safe mark and forcing cancellation of dozens of flights. Visibilities dropped as low as 325 meters at Moscow's airport today, as temperatures hit 97°F (36°C). The past 25 days in a row have exceeded 30°C (86°F) in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the majority of the coming week. As I reported in yesterday's post, the number of deaths in Moscow in July 2010 was about 5,000 more than in July 2009, suggesting that the heat wave has been responsible for thousands of deaths in Moscow alone. I would expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, the number of premature deaths caused by the heat wave will approach or exceed the 40,000 who died in the 2003 European Heat Wave. As seen in Figure 2, the Russian heat wave of this year is more intense and affects a wider region than the great 2003 heat wave, though the population affected by the two heat waves is probably similar.


Figure 2. A comparison of temperature anomalies for August 2003, the peak of the great European heat wave of that year (left), with July temperature anomalies from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right). This year's heat wave in Russia is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe than the 2003 heat wave. The 2003 heat wave caused approximately 40,000 premature deaths. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Commentary
Belarus' new all-time extreme heat record gives the year 2010 the most national extreme heat records for a single year--seventeen. These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. Looking back at the past decade, which was the hottest decade in the historical record, Seventy-five countries set extreme hottest temperature records (33% of all countries.) For comparison, fifteen countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). My source for extreme weather records is the excellent book Extreme Weather by Chris Burt. His new updates (not yet published) remove a number of old disputed records.

Keep in mind that the matter of determining extreme records is very difficult, and it is often a judgment call as to whether an old record is reliable or not. For example, one of 2007's fifteen extreme hottest temperature records is for the U.S.--the 129°F recorded at Death Valley that year. Most weather record books list 1913 as the year the hottest temperature in the U.S. occurred, when Greenland Ranch in Death Valley hit 134°F. However, as explained in a recent Weatherwise article, that record is questionable, since it occurred during a sandstorm when hot sand may have wedged against the thermometer, artificially inflating the temperature. Mr. Burt's list of 225 countries with extreme heat records includes islands that are not independent countries, such as Puerto Rico and Greenland. I thank Mr. Burt and weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford for their assistance identifying this year's new extreme temperature records.

Earth has now seen four consecutive months with its warmest temperature on record, and the first half of 2010 was the warmest such 6-month period in the planet's history. It is not a surprise that many all-time extreme heat records are being shattered when the planet as a whole is so warm. Global warming "loads the dice" to favor extreme heat events unprecedented in recorded history.

National heat records set in 2010
Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history on Saturday, August 7, when the mercury hit 38.9°C (102°F) in Gomel. This broke the all-time record for extreme heat set just one day before, the 38.7°C (101.7°F) recorded in Gorky. Prior to 2010, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Belarus was the 38.0°C (100.4°F) in Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946.

Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk on August 1, 2010. Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk.

Cyprus recorded its hottest temperature in its history on August 1, 2010 when the mercury hit 46.6°C (115.9°F) at Lefconica. The old record for Cyprus was 44.4°C (111.9°F) at Lefkosia in August 1956. An older record of 46.6°C from July 1888 was reported from Nicosia, but is of questionable reliability.

Finland recorded its hottest temperature on July 29, 2010, when the mercury hit 99°F (37.2°C) at Joensuu. The old (undisputed) record was 95°F (35°C) at Jyvaskyla on July 9, 1914.

Qatar had its hottest temperature in history on July 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 50.4°C (122.7°F) at Doha Airport.

Russia had its hottest temperature in history on July 11, when the mercury rose to 44.0°C (111.2°F) in Yashkul, Kalmykia Republic, in the European portion of Russia near the Kazakhstan border. The previous hottest temperature in Russia (not including the former Soviet republics) was the 43.8°C (110.8°F) reading measured at Alexander Gaj, Kalmykia Republic, on August 6, 1940. The remarkable heat in Russia this year has not been limited just to the European portion of the country--the Asian portion of Russia also recorded its hottest temperature in history this year, a 42.7°C (108.9°F) reading at Kara, in the Chita Republic on June 24. The 42.3°C (108.1°F) reading on June 25 at Belogorsk, near the Amur River border with China, also beat the old record for the Asian portion of Russia. The previous record for the Asian portion of Russia was 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Aksha on July 21, 2004.

Sudan recorded its hottest temperature in its history on June 25 when the mercury rose to 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Dongola. The previous record was 49.5°C (121.1°F) set in July 1987 in Aba Hamed.

Niger tied its record for hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.1°C (116.8°F) at Bilma. That record stood for just one day, as Bilma broke the record again on June 23, when the mercury topped out at 48.2°C (118.8°F). The previous record was 47.1°C on May 24, 1998, also at Bilma.

Saudi Arabia had its hottest temperature ever on June 22, 2010, with a reading of 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Jeddah, the second largest city in Saudi Arabia. The previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F), at Abqaiq, date unknown. The record heat was accompanied by a sandstorm, which caused eight power plants to go offline, resulting in blackouts to several Saudi cities.

Chad had its hottest day in history on June 22, 2010, when the temperature reached 47.6°C (117.7°F) at Faya. The previous record was 47.4°C (117.3°F) at Faya on June 3 and June 9, 1961.

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature in history on June 15 in Abdaly, according to the Kuwait Met office. The mercury hit 52.6°C (126.7°F). Kuwait's previous all-time hottest temperature was 51.9°C (125.4°F), on July 27,2007, at Abdaly. Temperatures reached 51°C (123.8°F) in the capital of Kuwait City on June 15, 2010.

Iraq had its hottest day in history on June 14, 2010, when the mercury hit 52.0°C (125.6°F) in Basra. Iraq's previous record was 51.7°C (125.1°F) set August 8, 1937, in Ash Shu'aybah.

Pakistan had its hottest temperature in history on May 26, when the mercury hit an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro, according to the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia.

Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu, according to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Chris Burt, author of the authoritative weather records book Extreme Weather, the 47°C measured this year is the hottest temperature in Southeast Asia history.

Ascention Island (St. Helena, a U.K. Territory) had its hottest temperature in history on March 25, 2010, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°C) at Georgetown. The previous record was 34.0°C (93.2°F) at Georgetown in April 2003, exact day unknown.

The Solomon Islands had their hottest temperature in history on February 1, 2010, when the mercury hit 36.1°C (97°F) at Lata Nendo (Ndeni). The previous record for Solomon Islands was 35.6°C (96.0°F) at Honaiara, date unknown.

Colombia had its hottest temperature in history on January 24, 2010, when Puerto Salgar hit 42.3°C (108°F). The previous record was 42.0°C (107.6°F) at El Salto in March 1988 (exact day unknown).

National cold records set in 2010
One nation has set a record for its coldest temperature in history in 2010. Guinea had its coldest temperature in history in January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region.

Next post
I'll have an update Sunday. There are many important weather stories I've neglected to cover of late, such as the floods in Pakistan, which I hope to talk about in the coming week.

Jeff Masters

heavy smog from forest fires near Moscow (slava31)
heavy smog from forest fires near Moscow

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Looks like a lot of moisture being carved away from 93L.



Link
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1351. surfmom
Quoting BahaHurican:
Poor surfmom. Even when the waves DO come to the GoM, u can't really enjoy them... :o(


Ahh Baha --you (((understand))) our entire world has been turned upside down here -

True, True Pottery!! We have been assisting MaNature for years around here in regards to Tadpole assistance. It's a wonderful, FREE, project to do with your kids for next to nothing. Watching tadpoles develop is fascinating for any kid & you teach stewardship of the planet at the same time. Raise & release and you will have less mosquitoes and other annoying biters for sure.
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1350. hydrus
Quoting pottery:
See you all Later.
Have a Tranquil one...........
See ya Pott.
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Quoting aquak9:


well you could leave'm there for a coupla months, they'll hop out, hahaha...but really ya better scoop them out soon, relocate them. Maybe save some in a jar, so she can watch them transform?

This is roughly whay I was thinking. If by relocate you mean use as fishing bait.
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1348. hydrus
Quoting surfmom:
Moscow & China - YIKES

anyone know how the Dam in china is holding up? Forgot the name - 7 Sisters?

haven't been able to keep up with the rain numbers in that area
Mornin SurfMom- The Three Gorges dam is the only one I know. It is the largest in the world.
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1347. pottery
See you all Later.
Have a Tranquil one...........
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Morning.

I see Pakistan's still drenched, Moscow's still baking (though they might get a shower or two in a couple of days), and Colin's got identity problems. Again.

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1345. pottery
Quoting surfmom:
Indoor Meeting??? soooo sorry Pottery, that would be torture for me as well.....

curious, what's the water temp by you? we're at 91degrees........

LOL..
Water temps are a balmy 84-85.
Swells to 5', and waters are slightly cloudy...
Oh, and no noticeable polutants floating about.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, the NHC mentions this in the 8 a.m. ...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 8N32W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 32W-34W.

CatLoopLink

They've had something about that for a couple discussions now. I guess they're looking for separation from ITCZ and a stronger surface reflection before saying anything else....
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1343. surfmom
Moscow & China - YIKES

anyone know how the Dam in china is holding up? Forgot the name - 7 Sisters?

haven't been able to keep up with the rain numbers in that area
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Good Morning all! Is that blob in the NE Gulf what the models were hinting at or is that yet to come?
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1341. BDAwx
Quoting BahaHurican:
NHC was hinting this might happen sooner rather than later. Also were saying finding the COC was a bit challenging this a.m.


Thank you!
Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 526
Quoting pottery:

Be Carefull!!
The Society for the Protection of Tadpoles is watching ...........
heheheheh

L O L
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Tell em that you are gonna be like Billy the Exterminator and relocate them to a place where they can live happily ever after!


Guess no one in here has seen Billy --- He is very different and from Louisiana LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning, the NHC mentions this in the 8 a.m. ...TROPICAL WAVES...

LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N31W TO 8N32W MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS MAINLY CONSTRAINED TO THE ITCZ REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 32W-34W.

CatLoopLink

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1337. TopDuji
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P
Chlorine - " super shock levels " - very quick . . .
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1336. GetReal


I am not all that excited about the blob near the northern Bahamas... I have checked all the reporting stations and buoy reports in the area, and there is no indication that there has been any pressure falls in the entire area.

I'll take more of an interest once there is some evidence that pressures are falling, and there is some organization occurring.
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1335. surfmom
Indoor Meeting??? soooo sorry Pottery, that would be torture for me as well.....

curious, what's the water temp by you? we're at 91degrees........
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Quoting BDAwx:


I wonder if Colin has opened up into a trough...
NHC was hinting this might happen sooner rather than later. Also were saying finding the COC was a bit challenging this a.m.
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1311 weatherwart "Oh! I saw that yesterday. Darn thing is as big as the Island of Manhattan. Wow!

More than 4 times bigger
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1332. BDAwx


I wonder if Colin has opened up into a trough...
Member Since: August 3, 2009 Posts: 51 Comments: 526
1331. surfmom
Quoting weatherwart:
Good morning, everybody.

Dark, breezy and wet on Florida's west central coast this morning. Nice blob out there in the Gulf. I see there's another one on the opposite coast. This should be a fun day.


LOL -- I see the blob, been calling out to him all morning....OVER HERE PLEASE!!!
My hens would love a day singing in the rain.... so hot egg production is off a bit
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Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P
I have 3 under two yrs old; a two yr old girl, 19 mos boy, 1o mos girl. The two yr old lots of tantrums, I can see a tantrum about something like that LOL. Distract her, take her away, then skim skim skim, good luck!
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1329. pottery
Quoting pottery:

Be Carefull!!
The Society for the Protection of Tadpoles is watching ...........
heheheheh

Actually, on a serious note...
Frogs all over the World are in decline.
You should Nurture the tadpoles, and create a frog-sanctuary where you used to live.
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1328. aquak9
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P


well you could leave'm there for a coupla months, they'll hop out, hahaha...but really ya better scoop them out soon, relocate them. Maybe save some in a jar, so she can watch them transform?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Poor surfmom. Even when the waves DO come to the GoM, u can't really enjoy them... :o(
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Betcha those pple in Russia could use a few chips off that block...
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1325. surfmom
Quoting BahaHurican:
Headed back across FL, it seems. But I've seen / heard anything from NW to SW, so ur guess is as good as mine. Also I'm not expecting it to be TS before crossing... more likely after it gets in the GOM....

humpf w/sigh
want the rain, but not the trouble
want the waves, but not the OIL
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Quoting weatherwart:


Oh! I saw that yesterday. Darn thing is as big as the Island of Manhattan. Wow!


Just read a short article about it. Excuse me... it's four times the size of Manhattan. That's a lot of fresh water.
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1323. pottery
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P

Be Carefull!!
The Society for the Protection of Tadpoles is watching ...........
heheheheh
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthALWX:

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P


Tell em that you are gonna be like Billy the Exterminator and relocate them to a place where they can live happily ever after!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting aquak9:
G'morning all. (lifts coffee cup full circle)

no adware/virus problems...are you folks members? That shouldn't be an issue, tho.

NE Fla is sunny, calm, slight haze over the Atlantic. But I'll be keeping an eye open for "those" clouds.

We would gladly take some rain...
Hey, aqua. This "virus" think is connected w/ Norton, I think. Hopefully Admin will deal with it expeditiously.

I was smiling when u talked about low pressures and knees last night. Then I had the same problem, except with my sinuses. No wonder the old pple used to know when a storm was "travelling" as they used to say.... lol

That reminds me: I need to wundermail u about PWS's.

It's really overcast and still here. Reminds me of Greensboro, NC in early September - sullen and sultry....
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1320. aquak9
Quoting SouthALWX:
1301:
You drag it into the gomex for summer ... preferably around 50 mi south of mobile bay. Id be happy if you knocked off 5F or so from those ssts.


my thoughts exactly!!
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Need to get a new gauge, currently using the swimming pool as a marker LOL

Speaking of pools I need some advice WU community! My daughter (2 years old)) discovered around 1000 tadpoles in our pool this morning. Any advice on how I get rid of the little buggers without triggering a tantrum? =P
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1318. aquak9
surfmom- ya really oughtta consider signing up to the CoCoRAHs site, to upload daily data.

NWS uses the CoCoRAHs data.

And thank you m'luv!!
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Quoting surfmom:


I got the best rain gauge via rainman - durable & I love the extra large numbers - don't need glasses first thing in the AM


LOL
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1316. pottery
Landslides and floods have 'engulfed' a town in China.
127 deaths, 2000 missing.............

Per BBC news.
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Rough going for the folks in Moscow (Red Square)

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1314. surfmom
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Need to get a new gauge, currently using the swimming pool as a marker LOL


I got the best rain gauge via rainman - durable & I love the extra large numbers - don't need glasses first thing in the AM
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1301:
You drag it into the gomex for summer ... preferably around 50 mi south of mobile bay. Id be happy if you knocked off 5F or so from those ssts.
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img src=ImageHost.org

Pic I took of tornado forming near boca yesterday
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Quoting aspectre:
What d'ya do with a 42gigatonne 183meter(600foot)thick chunk of ice?

42trillion629billion130million941thousand510kilograms or 93trillion981billion146million344thousand595pounds is bigger than the British national debt.
Heck it's bigger than the US national debt (though that ain't from any lack of tryin').
And certainly too big if one wants ones martini properly shaken, and not stirred.


Oh! I saw that yesterday. Darn thing is as big as the Island of Manhattan. Wow!
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Quoting aquak9:


We had PWATS 2-3 inches, chuck, and ended up with barely half an inch. Grumble grumble...

what do you use to measure your rainfall totals?


Need to get a new gauge, currently using the swimming pool as a marker LOL
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1309. 7544
east of fla blob gaining more conv . now
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1308. smuldy
Starting to think the NHC is run by David Kahn after still insisting everyone beware of Tropical Sprinkle Colin yet still not even mentioning the wave around the ITCZ
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rossclick, why don't u upload ur photo to wunderground instead? I never have problems getting my wunderphotos to post to the blog....
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Morning, Aqua - looks as if you got all the skwerrels out of your 'puter. Maybe some rain for you out of this one, I hope.
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1305. IKE
And a somewhat positive MJO is in the Atlantic.....




Looks like the blob SE of 93L is ingesting some dust....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1304. aquak9
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Got a couple of inches here yesterday NW FL aka L.A.(Lower Alabama) LOL


We had PWATS 2-3 inches, chuck, and ended up with barely half an inch. Grumble grumble...

what do you use to measure your rainfall totals?
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1303. pottery
Good Morning all.
Some showers early this morning have given way to sunshine, sparkles on the trees and cool temps.
Very nice. A great day for settin' around watching stuff go by.
Unfortunately, I have to attend a meeting at 10:00. Indoors. BAH!
That's just not fair........
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Quoting aquak9:
G'morning all. (lifts coffee cup full circle)

no adware/virus problems...are you folks members? That shouldn't be an issue, tho.

NE Fla is sunny, calm, slight haze over the Atlantic. But I'll be keeping an eye open for "those" clouds.

We would gladly take some rain...


Got a couple of inches here yesterday NW FL aka L.A.(Lower Alabama) LOL
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.