Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


Funniest line tonight. Would you settle for Madonna? Heard she has a whole staff. Think 93L will stay away from the islands?


I heard she has had more than just A whole staff...
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Quoting sflawavedude:
Poof 92l! boom boom boom another one bites the dust...:)


92L hasn't had a chance for days. You act like it did.
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1807. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
ha


got any good sat image of the area SW of the Cape Verde Islands, looks nice on visible but I dont have an infrared of the area. :(
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Poof 92l! boom boom boom another one bites the dust...:)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
ABNT20 KNHC 070551
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



i wounder what is the nhc seeing that we are not seeing


What do you mean? It's rather obvious if looked at objectively. 93L is organizing, but it's still disorganized. There are multiple vorticity centers competing for dominance.
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night
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Grothar:


If it's any consolation, it doesn't get better. Big LOL The thing is, I look so darn good for my age. Nobody believes me. The doctors even verify my age, because they think I am not telling the truth. For real!!


I believe ya! Last time I was "carded" was when I was forty trying to buy some BC powder. The girl at the register asked me if I was 18 or older. LOL. Bless her heart. I wanted to adopt her! Wow, things sure went downhill fast after that though.
SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ABNT20 KNHC 070551
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 245 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.



i wounder what is the nhc seeing that we are not seeing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1800. xcool
ha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
two if you dont update am going too give you raw fish
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Well one thing I noticed on the GFS model, they keep the positive NAO and the east coast troughs through most of this month. It might save everyone from landfalls. We'll see if they're right.
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1797. Grothar
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Yes just the normal pains/insomnia tonight. That's sad I'm grateful for the normal aches and pains after fighting a toothache all week.
Lol. I figure if I'm fortunate enough to get old I'll be perfect at it because I've had decades of practice. :)


If it's any consolation, it doesn't get better. Big LOL The thing is, I look so darn good for my age. Nobody believes me. The doctors even verify my age, because they think I am not telling the truth. For real!!
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1796. xcool
btwntx08 .yea
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting BDAwx:

Link


Thanks
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Quoting Grothar:

\
Yo, homeless, How you been? Can't sleep either, huh. Lot of pain tonight. Old age isn't creeping up on me, it is in full attack mode. LOL


Yes just the normal pains/insomnia tonight. That's sad I'm grateful for the normal aches and pains after fighting a toothache all week.
Lol. I figure if I'm fortunate enough to get old I'll be perfect at it because I've had decades of practice. :)
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1792. xcool
bye 92L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1791. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2.open wave,


yep, lookie

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren
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new two comes out at any time now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1789. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1788. Grothar
Quoting homelesswanderer:
I see the Terrible Twins were brought up again tonight. They may not have looked "ragged" but there's a price to pay for that symmetry. Big bad rugged Ike had his own look happenin' Lol. (as seen on my avatar)
But truly hope they were all once in a lifetime storms.





\
Yo, homeless, How you been? Can't sleep either, huh. Lot of pain tonight. Old age isn't creeping up on me, it is in full attack mode. LOL
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1787. xcool
JLPR2.open wave,
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1786. JLPR2
92L is nothing


not even a wind shift
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1785. xcool
stop run models on 93L HMM /GUESS GOod BYE 93l
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
homelesswanderer hey


Hey xcool. :)
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1783. xcool
homelesswanderer hey
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I see the Terrible Twins were brought up again tonight. They may not have looked "ragged" but there's a price to pay for that symmetry. Big bad rugged Ike had his own look happenin' Lol. (as seen on my avatar)
But truly hope they were all once in a lifetime storms.




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1781. xcool



cmc ooz
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1780. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:


NOW NOW......don't blame your fingers on nothing but, old age........i'm sure you can find the proper finger when needed.......It is international in probably all 6 languages you speak......JUST SAYIN!


Actually, it isn't international. Almost each region has their own signal. When I am traveling, I have to remember which is which. There are some countries to which I no longer travel, if all my fingers are not working properly. LOL You would be surprised how many different signals there are. Although, with Western culture having the effect of movies and TV, it is widely recognized.
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1779. JLPR2
Quoting TampaSpin:
Ok gang....i have pee'd off enough bloggers tonite.....bofore i do any more harm good nite everyone.


haha!
night!
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Ok gang....i have pee'd off enough bloggers tonite.....bofore i do any more harm good nite everyone.
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1777. JLPR2

Quoting Grothar:


Keep dreaming. Stranger things have happened. LOL, Although Angelina Jolie would be nice to have as a step-mom.


That would be interesting, although I would be worried about her using red lipstick when she is saying goodbye to me. LOL!
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1776. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


haha! Sure, but Oprah would be better.
Maybe I would get free advice and psychiatry from Dr. Phil, you know that being on this blog requires it and Rachel Ray can come and cook. XD


Keep dreaming. Stranger things have happened. LOL, Although Angelina Jolie would be nice to have as a step-mom.
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1775. xcool
LOLGrothar:
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Grothar:


Everybody is good at something. I speak 6 languages, but can't add or subtract to save my life. Since I got arthritis in my hands I can't count higher than 6 anymore. LOL Don't worry about it. We understand you perfectly.


NOW NOW......don't blame your fingers on nothing but, old age........i'm sure you can find the proper finger when needed.......It is international in probably all 6 languages you speak......JUST SAYIN!
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1773. JLPR2
Quoting Grothar:


Funniest line tonight. Would you settle for Madonna? Heard she has a whole staff. Think 93L will stay away from the islands?


haha! Sure, but Oprah would be better.
Maybe I would get free advice and psychiatry from Dr. Phil, you know that being on this blog requires it and Rachel Ray can come and cook. XD

Oh and yeah, jeez I forgot to answer the weather question. XD
Already close or at 15N, they dont tend to visit us when they are that high up so early in their lives.
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1771. Grothar
Quoting xcool:
Grothar thanks .I iknow MY SPELL not perfect damn i know lots about weather.:)))))


Everybody is good at something. I speak 6 languages, but can't add or subtract to save my life. Since I got arthritis in my hands I can't count higher than 6 anymore. LOL Don't worry about it. We understand you perfectly.
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I am beginning to believe the models for 93L will begin to start to move more toward the West...and i believe 93L might just make it too the Bahamas possibly if it does get blocked and trapped under the high.



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1769. xcool



GFS MODELS SHOWS TWO CV STORMS.IKNOW 384HR
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
so long 92L and 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1767. hcubed
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Will your alter ego finally get a forecast correct???

Will Danny Boniducci make a come back?

Who is in Grants tumb??


Heck, I'm psychic too. I can tell you, to the minute, exactly what time my alarm is going to go off in the morning.
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1766. xcool
TampaSpin thanks :))0
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1765. xcool
Grothar thanks .I iknow MY SPELL not perfect damn i know lots about weather.:)))))
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1764. hcubed
Quoting NotJFV:
ok.. I';ll ask again... how can I make all postings visible... most of the are hidden now and I have to click the show button to see them......


I don't know - I have just the opposite problem.

Your posts are visible and I've got to hit hide to remove them.

If there were just an easier way...
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In the morning i hope to wake up to a strong TS Colin! Night everybody.
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1762. Grothar
Quoting JLPR2:


Once Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie adopt me maybe. XD LOL!
And yep, i'm amazed at the stuff I had accumulated. :\


Funniest line tonight. Would you settle for Madonna? Heard she has a whole staff. Think 93L will stay away from the islands?
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Quoting Grothar:


xcool, you can insult me anytime you want! You are the best mapper on here. Any time I have asked you for one, you never fail. Still dont' know where the heck you find them so fast.


I agree.....XCOOL is for sure the best at posting great graphics.....i am like you Groth....some of his graphics i have no idea where they come from.....but, he is really good at posting everyones needs when asked.
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1759. Grothar
Quoting xcool:
Grothar .dam that meaning :( lol


xcool, you can insult me anytime you want! You are the best mapper on here. Any time I have asked you for one, you never fail. Still dont' know where the heck you find them so fast.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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