Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1909. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTER
5:00 PM PhST August 7 2010
=============================================

Tropical Depression ESTER has slightly intensified as it continues to move towards Batanes area.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ester located at 19.9°N 122.8°E or 100 km aoutheast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Signal Warning #1
=================

Luzon Region
-------------
1.Cagayan
2.Babuyan Island
3.Calayan Island
4.Apayao
5.Kalinga
6.Abra
7.Ilocos Norte
8.Ilocos Sur
9.Northern Isabela
10.Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Depression "Ester" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over the Western section of the country.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the Western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Good morning.

Kori, r u still up?

I'm looking at the PREDICT webpage and noting that CIMSS has two different invests marked. Wonder why NHC has only 1?



I was wondering about that as well. Though the area just south of the CV Islands deserves to be labeled 94L, IMO.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Ike.

I'm looking at the two areas in the CATL with interest. The more northeaterly 1 looks like it may not get too strong, but I haven't looked at waters in projected path yet. The other, not yet designated 1, I suspect may be more high powered, and possibly also more of a threat. I don't see the high set up remaining as is for another week. The 15th is next Sunday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another named storm by then. I'm just hoping we get a couple more that recurve early, preferably NOT over Bermuda or the Azores....


I know Levi and the others have suggested that the MJO intensifying in the atlantic will strengthen the Bermuda high. How an intensified Bermuda high affects the High over the Azores is anybody's guess better than mine.
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Morning Ike.

I'm looking at the two areas in the CATL with interest. The more northeaterly 1 looks like it may not get too strong, but I haven't looked at waters in projected path yet. The other, not yet designated 1, I suspect may be more high powered, and possibly also more of a threat. I don't see the high set up remaining as is for another week. The 15th is next Sunday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another named storm by then. I'm just hoping we get a couple more that recurve early, preferably NOT over Bermuda or the Azores....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
New cape verde system coming into the Central Atlantic Satellite loop. This has maintained impressive convection. What is the thinking over this storm's direction? Another fish storm like Colin and 93L?
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1903. IKE
Quoting SouthALWX:

I find it hard to believe we wont see an uptick when the MJO comes into play. But you never know. Im not complaining about the lull for sure, Carburetor is giving me issues with the generator ... bad timing -.-


It's here now....

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Good morning.

Kori, r u still up?

I'm looking at the PREDICT webpage and noting that CIMSS has two different invests marked. Wonder why NHC has only 1?

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
Quoting IKE:
On Colin...THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 36 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD GENEROUSLY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE...ASSUMING SOME HIGHER WINDS REMAIN IN THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

.......................................

Looking at the Atlantic....maybe that's the problem...stop looking at it. The old adage...a watched pot never boils may apply here.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season still isn't clicking on all cylinders and from the looks of the latest ECMWF and GFS, may not click on all cylinders for at least the next 10 days.

I have no scientific data to back up my thoughts...just an observation from looking at model runs and the wide view of the ATL...."wait til..." continues to apply this season.


I find it hard to believe we wont see an uptick when the MJO comes into play. But you never know. Im not complaining about the lull for sure, Carburetor is giving me issues with the generator ... bad timing -.-
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1900. IKE
On Colin...THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 36 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD GENEROUSLY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE...ASSUMING SOME HIGHER WINDS REMAIN IN THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

.......................................

Looking at the Atlantic....maybe that's the problem...stop looking at it. The old adage...a watched pot never boils may apply here.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season still isn't clicking on all cylinders and from the looks of the latest ECMWF and GFS, may not click on all cylinders for at least the next 10 days.

I have no scientific data to back up my thoughts...just an observation from looking at model runs and the wide view of the ATL...."wait til..." continues to apply this season.

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Quoting EricSFL:


Hes just like reedzone. If by coincidence his "forecast" holds true, he brags about it.
What's w/ the beef for reedzone? If "by coincidence" is not usually true of reed, since he usually attempts to provide a reasoned, logical explanation for his forecasts that is based on the science. You see him as bragging when he is right, but you don't give him credit for admitting when he is wrong - which he does.

There are lots of pple on here shooting their mouths off without any attempt to justify their opinions. Reedzone is not one of them. As a result your comments and others like them come across as petty, mean-spirited and, frankly, false.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21187
.
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 070901
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
500 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

CORRECTED FOR 120 HOUR FORECAST STATUS IN TABLE

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT
COLIN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE THE SURFACE CENTER
DISPLACED NORTH OF THE 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER FIX. THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 36 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD GENEROUSLY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE...ASSUMING SOME HIGHER WINDS REMAIN IN THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYZES ONLY ABOUT
10 KT OF SHEAR OVER COLIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR
AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF
THE CENTER. SHIPS SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LOW FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS COLIN WILL REMAIN
OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
48 HOURS...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AND COLIN SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH ICON.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT COLIN HAS
MOVED VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/04. COLIN APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAKENING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON COLIN
ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE EAST
AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS COLIN IS CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE
FLOW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF
MOTION...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE
NEW NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 12
TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BEYOND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 07/0900Z 29.1N 66.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/1800Z 30.4N 66.0W 40 KT
24HR VT 08/0600Z 32.3N 65.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/1800Z 34.8N 63.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 09/0600Z 37.8N 61.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 10/0600Z 44.0N 54.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 11/0600Z 51.5N 43.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1888 reasonmclucus "
Why do you mention the Russian heat wave, but not Argentina's coldest weather in 40 years?
"

Runnin' a 4minute mile nowadays ain't gonna getcha a mention in the record books neither.
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1895. IKE
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. COLIN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS
EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
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1894. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE (EP072010)
9:00 AM UTC August 7 2010
===================================

SUBJECT: "Estelle" Changes Little In Intensity

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Estelle (1000 hPa) located at 16.8N 106.7W or 190 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
45 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 hrs: 17.6N 109.4W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 hrs: 18.3N 111.4W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 hrs: 18.5N 112.5W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
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1893. IKE
00Z ECMWF through August 17th...


Eastern ATL view...Link


I see 93L heading to the north ATL graveyard on the run. I don't see anything else significant on the run.

.........................................

Latest GFS through August 23rd...Link

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Quoting FLdewey:
Okay so I'm officially too old to sleep on the floor.


lmao
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Snow in Brazil, below zero Celsius in the River Plate and tropical fish frozen

For a second day running it snowed Wednesday in Southern Brazil and in twelve of Argentinas 24 provinces including parts of Buenos Aires as a consequence of the polar front covering most of the continents southern cone with zero and below zero temperatures.


Light snow storms in Brazil were concentrated in areas of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. O Globo network aired snow flakes falling in early morning, cars covered with a thin white coating and some roads dangerously slippery because of ice.

In Argentina the phenomenon extended to Northern provinces, geographically sub-tropical while in the Patagonia and along the Andes snow reached over a metre deep, isolating villages and causing yet undisclosed losses to crops and livestock.

The extreme cold weather is expected to peak Thursday dawn with below zero temperatures and even lower with the wind chill factor.

After a harsh weekend, Argentinas National Weather Forecast Service announced the cold weather is expected to stay until Thursday although it could again reach a freezing peak over the coming week-end.

On Wednesday a northbound cold front hit the Patagonia and central Argentine regions. In Patagonia, minimum temperatures went as low as minus 10 Celsius with even lower numbers in snowy regions, while maximum temps were in the range of zero to 7 Celsius.

Because of the freezing temperatures power consumption set new records both in Argentina and Uruguay. According to Argentinas Planning ministry, electricity demand reached 20.669 MW at 20:15 hours when most Argentine families are home back from work. Although residential demand was satisfied, hundreds of industries suffered an anticipated blackout.

In Uruguay the power record consumption was reached on Wednesday at 20:45. The lowest temperatures were registered in the north and west of the country: minus 7 Celsius.

In related news, reports from landlocked Bolivia indicate that to the east of the country in tropical areas temperatures plummeted to zero causing millions of dead fish in rivers that normally flow in an environment of 20 Celsius.

Santa Cruz governor Ruben Costas said the province was suffering a major environmental catastrophe and warned the population not to make use of water from rivers (because of the dead fauna and flora) promising to send drinking water in municipal trucks.

The last time something of this magnitude happened was 47 years ago, said governor Costas.

Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
1889. xcool
EricSFL .you too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why do you mention the Russian heat wave, but not Argentina's coldest weather in 40 years?


http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-03/argentina-colder-than-antarctica-spurs-record-power-import s-shuts-plants.html

Bolivia has experienced an environmental catastrophe resulting in the deaths of millions of tropical fish because air temperatures that normally are in the 20 C range dropped to 0 C.

http://en.mercopress.com/2010/08/05/snow-in-brazil-below-zero-celsius-in-the-river-plate-and-tropic al-fish-frozen

Brazil has experienced a significant snowfall.

http://www.metsul.com/blog/

Link isn't recommended for those with dialup because of its size.
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1886. EricSFL
Goodnight xcool.
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1885. xcool
:0
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1884. EricSFL
Yes, I do.
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1883. xcool
you know.
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1882. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:
hmm


?
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1881. xcool
hmm
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1879. EricSFL
Don't think I didn't read your disgusting email. I have NEVER insulted you for you to be so extremely disrespectful.
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1877. EricSFL
Unbelievable...
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1838 ddbweatherking "...do any of you know when the next recon plane is scheduled to be near Colin?

Should be there or getting there about now. Posted at 1:45amAST:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010 200 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010

COLIN MOVING LITTLE...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING TO INVESTIGATE
"Moving little" as in "was at 29.1N66.5W 3hours ago, and is at 29.1N66.5W now".
More like fidgeting...
...or sleeping. "Dragon moving little, knights approach to investigate."

And I really do wish that NHC would quit trying to act like StormTop.
This SHOUTing all of the time is really annoying.
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1874. JLPR2
if you guys want to see from where the Cape verde disturbance came check out this loop.

Link
Well, I'm off to bed, big day of cleaning and painting tomorrow, yay!(sarcasm) -.-
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1873. xcool


Here comes the new wave..model support
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NNE winds being reported at Praia, Cape Verde as of 40 minutes ago. In conjunction with the earlier mention of southwesterly winds to the southeast of the Cape Verde Islands, this seems to indicate the presence of a broad surface circulation. This may be transient, though. We'll see.
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1869. xcool
JLPR2 .guess we'll find out,
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1868. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 .THAT SOON 94L



has to sustain itself tomorrow, but if it does, yeah, definitely 94L
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1867. xcool
JLPR2 .THAT SOON 94L
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1866. xcool
586
WHXX01 KWBC 070619
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0619 UTC SAT AUG 7 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932010) 20100807 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100807 0600 100807 1800 100808 0600 100808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.5N 37.5W 19.4N 39.6W 21.0N 42.1W 22.3N 44.8W
BAMD 17.5N 37.5W 19.7N 39.4W 21.7N 41.3W 23.3N 42.9W
BAMM 17.5N 37.5W 19.7N 39.5W 21.4N 41.7W 22.9N 44.0W
LBAR 17.5N 37.5W 19.4N 39.1W 21.3N 40.8W 22.8N 42.2W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100809 0600 100810 0600 100811 0600 100812 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.2N 47.5W 24.3N 52.0W 25.1N 55.1W 26.1N 56.5W
BAMD 24.0N 44.3W 23.7N 46.7W 22.7N 47.8W 22.1N 47.1W
BAMM 23.9N 46.0W 24.8N 49.2W 25.2N 51.0W 25.9N 50.9W
LBAR 23.8N 43.2W 24.7N 44.2W 25.3N 43.9W 26.6N 42.6W
SHIP 39KTS 48KTS 49KTS 49KTS
DSHP 39KTS 48KTS 49KTS 49KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.5N LONCUR = 37.5W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 36.0W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 34.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
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1865. JLPR2
The slight yellow seems to be for the disturbance at 28W

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Quoting btwntx08:

hmmmm nice circuation but open on the sw side


Yep. Southwest side is elongated, with an abundance of southwesterly winds, but over a relatively large area, and probably only minimal, if any westerly winds.
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1863. xcool



may be 94L .NICE WAVE..
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1861. EricSFL
Thanks!
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Quoting sflawavedude:
92l had lack of surface low pressure and no model support and was going to run out of time anyways due to land. no smiley.


No. Initially, it had time. What hampered it was dry air, and its fast forward speed. And as you cited, lack of model support. Which was probably why.
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1859. JLPR2
Quoting EricSFL:
JLPR2 do you have the link for the pouch track?


Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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