Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1959 - 1909

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

[B][COLOR=DarkRed]KMOB NWS

[/COLOR][/B][QUOTE]Long term...(tuesday through friday)...expecting a drying trend in
the forecast area with dangerous heat indices possibly returning to
the region early next week. The European model (ecmwf) has dropped the tropical wave
we saw from the last run and the GFS is picking one up forming off
the old front by midweek and that does show it in the northeast Gulf.
Therefore we are staying with the MOS probability of precipitation. 77/blowing dust

[/QUOTE]
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1958. Vero1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1957. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:
It's hard to judge whether Colin's lived a charmed life for existing this long, or a cursed life for constantly having roadblocks.


Colin is doing something for the ACE #. Not sure how much, but at least a little. Speaking of Ace.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1956. viman
Quoting InTheCone:
Morning All,

PGI25L looks like it may need to be watched, lots of convection and a southern track.



I know it was explained earlier but what is the PGI labeling again? TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1955. Becca36
Quoting Cotillion:
It's hard to judge whether Colin's lived a charmed life for existing this long, or a cursed life for constantly having roadblocks.

It's starting to remind me of the infamous "Fred-Ex"...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's hard to judge whether Colin's lived a charmed life for existing this long, or a cursed life for constantly having roadblocks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time and Date -- location
11pmAST 6Aug - 29.1N66.5W
02amAST 7Aug - 29.1N66.5W
05amAST 7Aug - 29.1N66.5W

At its current speed and heading, Collin is poised to become a permanent feature located 250miles (402kilometres) SouthSouthWest of Bermuda.
That or the NHC hasn't had a good fix on its center for ~6hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1952. IKE
Trough heading for Colin....not sure it impacts Bermuda much(just my opinion, trust the NHC)...may exit stage right....Link

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just coming into view...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning all...tengo cafe!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Morning All,

PGI25L looks like it may need to be watched, lots of convection and a southern track.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1948. IKE
Enjoy your weekend Baha.

I picked up .39 inches of rain yesterday. Got 78.8 outside....right now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, I'm getting off. Gotta couple family-related obligations today, but will try to check in between-times. Best of the day to my blogging Bermudan brethren, and to the blog at large....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
Quoting KoritheMan:


According to this:



About 10 to 15 mph.


I should learn to read those maps. Thanks a lot!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1992Andrew:
How fast is that soon to be labeled invest going? Earlier this morning it was barely coming into the CAtl satellite loop. Now the entire body is almost visible.


According to this:



About 10 to 15 mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


It continues that trend out to 180 hours. Looks like what a downward MJO would look like.

You ever notice how it always shows a ton more convection on the 192 hour frame, only? It's done that on every run since I've been following it. Then it goes back to a "normal" frame at 204 hours.

You would think they would fix that kink on the 192 hour frame?


Yup. Noticed the same thing. Obviously the model still needs considerable tweaking.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How fast is that soon to be labeled invest going? Earlier this morning it was barely coming into the CAtl satellite loop. Now the entire body is almost visible.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1942. 1965
Eastern GOM still looks interesting next week. A little home brew to keep us occupied while we await the heart of the season?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1941. IKE
Quoting KoritheMan:


That doesn't jive well with what one would expect in an upward MJO, which is only forecast to further amplify and strengthen over the next week or two. It's likely a convective feedback issue, as you said, especially since this same model is the one predicting the most robust upward MJO pulse.


It continues that trend out to 180 hours. Looks like what a downward MJO would look like.

You ever notice how it always shows a ton more convection on the 192 hour frame, only? It's done that on every run since I've been following it. Then it goes back to a "normal" frame at 204 hours.

You would think they would fix that kink on the 192 hour frame?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting surfmom:
Good AM - gulping the caffeine & checking the morning weather scene. ....like the good book says: "seek and ye shall find".
Hey, Surfmom. Good to see u in the blog and know that ur still hitting the waves. I'll bet there are a few Eleutherans and Abaconians planning to hit the surf today....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
Quoting IKE:
I'm not sure the GFS isn't having issues again. Looks too dry in the ATL. If it's not having issues, I'm startled at what it's showing....

120 hours....




162 hours....



That doesn't jive well with what one would expect in an upward MJO, which is only forecast to further amplify and strengthen over the next week or two. It's likely a convective feedback issue, as you said, especially since this same model is the one predicting the most robust upward MJO pulse.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1938. IKE
I'm not sure the GFS isn't having issues again. Looks too dry in the ATL. If it's not having issues, I'm startled at what it's showing....

120 hours....




162 hours....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Maybe Uncle SAL is helping to keep 93L in check......





93L is sweeping the dust off Uncle Sal's store in time for this new wave to walk into the shop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Maybe Uncle SAL is helping to keep 93L in check......





Water vapor imagery suggests that some slight dry air is becoming entrained into the system's west side. I do expect tropical cyclogenesis from this area, but it will probably occur a bit slower than I had previously suspected.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1935. IKE
Maybe Uncle SAL is helping to keep 93L in check......



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
On Colin...THE HIGHEST
FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 36 KT.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD GENEROUSLY AT 40 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE...ASSUMING SOME HIGHER WINDS REMAIN IN THE DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

.......................................

Looking at the Atlantic....maybe that's the problem...stop looking at it. The old adage...a watched pot never boils may apply here.

2010 Atlantic hurricane season still isn't clicking on all cylinders and from the looks of the latest ECMWF and GFS, may not click on all cylinders for at least the next 10 days.

I have no scientific data to back up my thoughts...just an observation from looking at model runs and the wide view of the ATL...."wait til..." continues to apply this season.



Oh, and IKE, don't worry about that. I may have been complaining about that the last couple nights, but that's only to those who I don't really respect, and deem ignorant. You are not one of those people. Because you've earned my respect, I will not belittle you for a differing opinion.

Cheers, buddy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


It certainly appears a little less organized than 12 hours ago.


Gah. Scratch that. I thought for sure you said that 93L was expected to track west, not the CV blob. My bad. Sorry if that confused anyone.

In any case, 93L does look less organized to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1932. surfmom
Good AM - gulping the caffeine & checking the morning weather scene. Heat's not a problem for me ever - but 93% humidity ion SRQ,FL is nasty. Airconditioner went Kaput yesterday - house is like a sweatshop - thank goodness for the fans. I have a 50percent chance of rain --but that's been forecasted all week & I've had NADA.. tease, tease, tease

MJO is here....hum.... that's always an ingredient that starts the pot a boiling...

Gulfcoast surfers are migrating cross the state today -- actually I'm sure most are pulling into the parking spots on the EAST coast of FL as I post, thanks to waves generated by Colin. If you think it gets harsh in here, I will bet the season's first east coast 'cane waves will have wave-starved surfers a wee bit aggressive. Hoping the Aloha Spirit prevails - going to be crowded on the line-up. I'll pass and maybe head over for the clean-up in a day or so.

Colin from a surf perspective/ Aurasurf/M.Weaver
The East Bahamas buoy is a whopping 10ft at 12 seconds. Imagine how good the surf is in Eleuthera right now. Most of the swell will be blocked by the Bahamas. Many of you guys are coast trip vets so you have your spot in your back pocket. Lately we have been pointing N of the Cape where we can surf and fish! 12 second swell over there sometimes tends to closeout and the farther N you go the more offshore the winds may be. Not trying to confuse you and point you in any direction but like the good book says: "seek and ye shall find".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Morning.

Latest 6Z GFS shows the blob SE of 93L tracking mostly west, but weakening it...Link
Hmmm... interesting. I guess GFS is seeing the collective energy going towards 93L. I'm also noticing in the 48-hr frame another wave coming off Africa.

We shall see what happens.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
Quoting BahaHurican:
Agreed. If this holds together, looks like it'll track more west, meaning it's likely to stay over warmer waters longer. Not that it's not warm enough up to 25-30N out there...


Yeah, this could be a land threat. Maybe. I don't want to sound like a wishcaster.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1992Andrew:
Judging from the shear maps (using GFS projections), the storm is over the only break in shear off teh coast of africa and, if moving due west, it should follow that narrow zone of low shear for the next 168 hours. This was just a quick check by using GFS. What do you think?


Shear appears favorable for the next several days regardless if it moves poleward or equatorial. In fact, the GFS hints at a weak anticyclone aloft for the next 48 hours or so.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1928. tkeith
*takes two aspirin and rubs head*

mornin...mornin crew :)

*swears off Landshark on work days*...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Why do GFS models weaken the storm? Did they predict the storm to come off africa being this well developed? Isn't it a slippery slope to forecast the intensity of an emerging wave...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1926. IKE
Quoting SouthALWX:

do'h forgot the charts werent updating... thats good news so far then :) here's to rooting .... 3:1:0


I'll 2nd those thoughts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was wondering about that as well. Though the area just south of the CV Islands deserves to be labeled 94L, IMO.
Agreed. If this holds together, looks like it'll track more west, meaning it's likely to stay over warmer waters longer. Not that it's not warm enough up to 25-30N out there...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
Quoting IKE:


It's here now....


do'h forgot the charts werent updating... thats good news so far then :) here's to rooting .... 3:1:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Judging from the shear maps (using GFS projections), the storm is over the only break in shear off teh coast of africa and, if moving due west, it should follow that narrow zone of low shear for the next 168 hours. This was just a quick check by using GFS. What do you think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Morning.

Latest 6Z GFS shows the blob SE of 93L tracking mostly west, but weakening it...Link


It certainly appears a little less organized than 12 hours ago.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1992Andrew:


Weakening it? Do you know where we can find projected shear in its path?


Link

Go to the 850-200 mb shear in any of the models. GFS does best, generally.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 1992Andrew:
New cape verde system coming into the Central Atlantic Satellite loop. This has maintained impressive convection. What is the thinking over this storm's direction? Another fish storm like Colin and 93L?
Here is what CIMSS is showing.

Link
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22565
Quoting IKE:
Click the "field" link on the GFS. It gives the shear information...shear and zonal shear as options...Link


Oh nice, cool, thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like 93L is moistening the dry air, getting rid of it, clearing the way for the storm south west of the cape verde islands to have a better shot at development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1917. IKE
Click the "field" link on the GFS. It gives the shear information...shear and zonal shear as options...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Morning.

Latest 6Z GFS shows the blob SE of 93L tracking mostly west, but weakening it...Link


Weakening it? Do you know where we can find projected shear in its path?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1915. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning Ike.

I'm looking at the two areas in the CATL with interest. The more northeaterly 1 looks like it may not get too strong, but I haven't looked at waters in projected path yet. The other, not yet designated 1, I suspect may be more high powered, and possibly also more of a threat. I don't see the high set up remaining as is for another week. The 15th is next Sunday, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another named storm by then. I'm just hoping we get a couple more that recurve early, preferably NOT over Bermuda or the Azores....


Morning.

Latest 6Z GFS shows the blob SE of 93L tracking mostly west, but weakening it...Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I believe we have a new cape verde system. Today the blog will be biting their nails over this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good Morning. Why hasn't Colin strengthened at all?


Storm looks more ragged than yesterday. It has been encountering shear. Looks like it is embedded between two TuTTs. Next concern for the eastern atlantic and the islands is not 93L (as that is being projected to be a fish storm, too) but the impressive wave south west of the cape verde islands. Has been maintaing impressive convection for the last twelve hours.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1912. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
oops west northwest not west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The new cape verde system south east of Invest 93L has nice outflow. And because it's already north from the ITCZ, though not completely separated, I think this has a good shot to develop. We need to know if it'll be a threat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Morning. Why hasn't Colin strengthened at all?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
1909. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTER
5:00 PM PhST August 7 2010
=============================================

Tropical Depression ESTER has slightly intensified as it continues to move towards Batanes area.

At 4:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Ester located at 19.9°N 122.8°E or 100 km aoutheast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

Signal Warning #1
=================

Luzon Region
-------------
1.Cagayan
2.Babuyan Island
3.Calayan Island
4.Apayao
5.Kalinga
6.Abra
7.Ilocos Norte
8.Ilocos Sur
9.Northern Isabela
10.Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
======================
Tropical Depression "Ester" is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over the Western section of the country.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under signal # 1 and areas over the Western sections of Central and Southern Luzon and Western Visayas are alerted against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1959 - 1909

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.