Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2008. bird72
13lat 30long?????

Invest???? TD????????

NHC, is very slow this year.......
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2007. aquak9
not J_V- that was good, "guess that's why they call it window-pain"

I'm way too old to enjoy that but I did anyway
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Off to work. Everyone have a Blessed Day.
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Quoting StormW:
EXPLANATION OF THE RELATION OF THE NAO and STORM RECURVATURE


Thanks StormW,
Does the NAO pretty much stay neg. to neutral
during say Nov to Mar? are does this keep in a trainsition stage for theis month's?
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2004. aquak9
whoa cotilion- ballroom blitz? Heavy stuff so early, think I'll stick w/the straits...

Ike I compared it to an ice cream sundae. Ice cream, hot fudge, a cherry = perfect.

But this Season™ is like three flavors of ice cream, hot fudge, nuts, whipped cream, sprinkles, strawberries, bananas, pineapples, and circus music in the background.

Kinda overloaded, and it's just too much of a good thing.
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2003. tkeith
2001. IKE

This would be considered a normal season...so far
Outlook for the next 7-10 days from looking at computer models is...no major threats to anyone. Subject to change.


So Far So Good....
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2002. NotJFV
Link

Im gonna bust out my dj moves now.
A synopsis of the season so far.
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2001. IKE
Quoting NotJFV:

lol.. good Sat morning music... it just lingers in the backround...... I'm in a dire mood.....
even though theres a lot of action it seems to me that everything is kinda busting like a baloon this year...yes I know it's only August...


This would be considered a normal season...so far.

Normal...3rd named system by Aug. 13th.
Normal...first hurricane by Aug. 10th.

Normal season would have 2 more in August and then 3 in September.

I do agree that systems seem to be fighting elements quite a bit...since Alex.

There's been so much talk of record breaking SST's...low shear...La Nina..."18 named systems for the season"..it makes this season seem lacking something. I'm not sure what it is....IF there is something.

One thing that won't stop is time. There's only so much of it in any season.

Outlook for the next 7-10 days from looking at computer models is...no major threats to anyone. Subject to change.
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Good morning Storm.Will you have a sypnosis today?
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1999. aquak9
nuthin' like a little mark and dave knopfler to smooth the edges on a saturday morning, thanks ike.

g'morning WU-BLoggers worldwide, Good evening Aussie if you're here.

catch up reading for a few...
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Quoting NotJFV:

as long as your bday wasnt in February ...yes that sounds very sweet..... I'm sure you deserved that...hmmmm. what did breakfasdt include?...Im hungry...
I had scrambled eggs,raisin toast,bacon and gooooooood cup of coffee.
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The Tropics this morning

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1996. NotJFV
Quoting mrsalagranny:
How sweet.My 12 year old daughter made me breakfast and coffee this moning and told me it was my late Birthday present.This is such sweet moments.

as long as your bday wasnt in February ...yes that sounds very sweet..... I'm sure you deserved that...hmmmm. what did breakfasdt include?...Im hungry...
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How sweet.My 12 year old daughter made me breakfast and coffee this moning and told me it was my late Birthday present.This is such sweet moments.
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1994. NotJFV
Quoting IKE:


Got one more for you....what a guitarist....

According to experts, 2010 season will ride across the river...to the other side soon.

Not sure Colin is going to hang on much longer....




lol.. good Sat morning music... it just lingers in the backround...... I'm in a dire mood.....
even though theres a lot of action it seems to me that everything is kinda busting like a baloon this year...yes I know it's only August...
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1993. BDAwx
good morning!
its a beautiful morning in Bermuda! I'm fairly surprised to be honest - I thought it would be cloudier.
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Good morning everyone.I noticed 92L poof this morning.Thats a good thing.
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1989. IKE
Quoting NotJFV:

Ike you kill me with your dj moves... you should change your name to DJ WU!!!


Got one more for you....what a guitarist....

According to experts, 2010 season will ride across the river...to the other side soon.

Not sure Colin is going to hang on much longer....



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Morning Storm,

Possible new critter in the ATL to watch.....

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Quoting IKE:


Looks like 93L is choking on SAL a little. Needs oxygen to breath...Love is Like Oxygen.

It's better to live and let die with such storms...
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Quoting IKE:


Can't embed it....Link


70% chance of rain today at my house.
Same to your east in Jax. Looks like all of north florida is going to get in on the action as we heat up today.
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1982. NotJFV
Quoting IKE:


Looks like 93L is choking on SAL a little. Needs oxygen to breath...Love is Like Oxygen.

Ike you kill me with your dj moves... you should change your name to DJ WU!!!
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1980. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
2010 Hurricane Season



Can't embed it....Link


70% chance of rain today at my house.
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1979. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:
All these disturbances, yet it's hardly a ballroom blitz out there...


Looks like 93L is choking on SAL a little. Needs oxygen to breath...Love is Like Oxygen.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Nice to see someone looks at my blog


Yes, I actually found it by doing a Google search! Very good info. there, thanks!
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1977. NotJFV
thanks god, a box of band-aids are not needed this morning... very nice people are blogging... btw this name is a total sarcasm name to our friend...I have already rec'd mail from him calling me an sob......
The tropics have been very interesting thus far.
Does anyone know why the genesis of storms this year seems to be monsoonal? well I'm sure my question makes no sense but Im trying to learn here...
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Quoting InTheCone:
Here's some info. on pouches that I copied from another blog....


Nice to see someone looks at my blog
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All these disturbances, yet it's hardly a ballroom blitz out there...
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Quoting InTheCone:


Go here for links to the models and much more...

Canefever


Thanx.
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1972. IKE
...COLIN BARELY MOVING...REMAINS DISORGANIZED...
8:00 AM AST Sat Aug 7
Location: 29.3°N 66.5°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 4 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
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Quoting palmasdelrio:
I just saw the maps this morning and noticed a big blob just coming into view. Do any models pick up on this? I don't know where the model sites are.


Go here for links to the models and much more...

Canefever
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 071130
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT AUG 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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1968. scott39
Goodmorning, Are the maps and models being consistant about a developement in the NE GOM?
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I just saw the maps this morning and noticed a big blob just coming into view. Do any models pick up on this? I don't know where the model sites are.
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New wave analysed....

And... OPC at 96 hrs.... not the multiple possible TCs....



Right, I'm out the door.... see u subse...
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Quoting viman:
Thanks again


You're welcome! I'm no expert on these things, but I believe that they are doing research on the tropical waves this year to try and figure why some develop and some don't and all of the factors involved in the process.

If you want a thorough discussion of tropical waves, go to Weather456's blog. He did a write up on them earlier this year that was very informative.
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Shame Colin won't go NE enough for the shipping forecast.
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1963. IKE
Quoting Cotillion:


I bet that nefarious Karen has something to do with it...



Nice tune. The 70s was such a good decade for music, appreciated even by those born well after.


My 30 year-old son agrees.

she get's rock n roll and a rock n roll station..
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1962. viman
Thanks again
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Here's some info. on pouches that I copied from another blog....


Website I have been following from the Naval Postgraduate School based on the "Marsupial Paradigm" of tropical cyclogenesis from Wang, Z., M. T. Montgomery, and T. J. Dunkerton (2009), A dynamically-based method for forecasting tropical cyclogenesis location in the Atlantic sector using global model products

This theory is based on: (Excerpt from paper)

1) wave breaking or roll-up of the cyclonic vorticity near the critical surface in the lower troposphere provides the vorticity seedling for TC formation;
2) the wave critical layer is a region of approximately closed circulation (a pouch), where air is repeatedly moistened by convection and protected to some degree from dry air intrusion;
3) the parent wave is maintained and possibly enhanced by diabatically amplified mesoscale vortices within the wave.

This is regarded as a marsupial theory in which a proto-vortex is carried along by the parent wave until it is strengthened into a self-sustaining entity.




Cartoon of the marsupial pouch of tropical cyclogenesis associated with African easterly waves. The dashed green contours depict the horizontal wind currents of the easterly wave in the earth-based reference frame in the lower atmosphere, which is usually open with an inverted V pattern. The solid black curves delineate the approximate boundary of the marsupial wave pouch as viewed moving with the easterly wave. The pouch tends to protect the moist air motions inside from the generally hostile environment, such as dry air associated with the Sahara Air Layer (SAL) that flows westward from the African Sahel. Once the “joey” has attained sufficient spin within the pouch they can exist on their own and leave the mother pouch usually moving northward relative to the mother wave. The thick purple line (CL) and black line represent the critical latitude and the trough axis, respectively. The intersection of the critical line and the trough axis pinpoints the center of the pouch, which is the preferred location for tropical cyclogenesis.
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Quoting Becca36:

It's starting to remind me of the infamous "Fred-Ex"...


I bet that nefarious Karen has something to do with it...

Quoting IKE:


Colin is doing something for the ACE #. Not sure how much, but at least a little. Speaking of Ace.


Nice tune. The 70s was such a good decade for music, appreciated even by those born well after.
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[B][COLOR=DarkRed]KMOB NWS

[/COLOR][/B][QUOTE]Long term...(tuesday through friday)...expecting a drying trend in
the forecast area with dangerous heat indices possibly returning to
the region early next week. The European model (ecmwf) has dropped the tropical wave
we saw from the last run and the GFS is picking one up forming off
the old front by midweek and that does show it in the northeast Gulf.
Therefore we are staying with the MOS probability of precipitation. 77/blowing dust

[/QUOTE]
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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