Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting utilaeastwind:
It appears that a COC is developing at 16.5N 84W and there is rapid intensification.

I do not think the central american coast will affect development at all.


Rapid Intensification is a drop of pressure by 42 points in a 24 hour poeriod. Definitely not RI.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting superpete:
We are getting some decent rain here today in Cayman from 92L.


I am on Utila just off the north coast of Honduras. Everything is calm here for now, but it looks like we are in for a wet weekend, to say the least.
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I totally agree.
100%
sheri


Great minds think alike. LOL
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
I see this blog transitioning into GW warfare today... Hope it doesn't, I've enjoyed the peace this morning.

No matter what your opinion is, please try and contain it, so that this tropical weather blog can remain just that today.

Disclaimer:
Not trying to police, just don't like all of the bickering!


I totally agree.
100%
sheri
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
It appears that a COC is developing at 16.5N 84W and there is rapid intensification.

I do not think the central american coast will affect development at all.


I think the Central American Coast will prohibit development.... I cannot see it organizing much.... if any further
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
It looks like 92 is blowing up big time. Any thoughts on further development?
We are getting some decent rain here today in Cayman from 92L.
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Quoting StormW:


Nice post!
AMEN!
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Quoting StormW:


Nice post!


yes... indeed.
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It appears that a COC is developing at 16.5N 84W and there is rapid intensification.

I do not think the central american coast will affect development at all.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Well, to be fair, GW wasn't mentioned.


I am so glad someone else seen that, I read it twice to make sure. He's just talking about a heat wave and smoke.
sheri
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repost from last blog


guys couple of things before I go

1 92L is making a comback look like to at 16.5N 82.5W

2 93L might not become a fish and maybe impact the leeward Islands

3 colin seems to be moving east now

4 pre-94L what is going on !?!?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 9598
Quoting StormW:


Nice post!


Agreed
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
Quoting Cotillion:


Well, to be fair, GW wasn't mentioned.


the mention of the word heat will bring them
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Quoting Cotillion:
The curious thing is....

You look at the rest of Europe, the temperatures aren't all that pronounced.

Berlin 25C, Paris 25C, Madrid 33C, Athens 32C...

Nothing bizarre for this time of year.

Someone in Moscow must've angered Nature this year.

to much vodka poured down the drains.
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Quoting Relix:
Wow. Heavy stuff in Russia. Thanks Dr.

Here comes the GW talk though. Meh. =/


Well, to be fair, GW wasn't mentioned.
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I see this blog transitioning into GW warfare today... Hope it doesn't, I've enjoyed the peace this morning.

No matter what your opinion is, please try and contain it, so that this tropical weather blog can remain just that today.

Disclaimer:
Not trying to police, just don't like all of the bickering!
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know what's funny? Alex, TD2, and Bonnie are all ignored in that statement. Colin's going out to sea thanks to a unseasonable trough, 93L might follow, 'might', as the models are now starting to shift westward. One or two systems are not a indicator of the season.


True. The thing is, while this blog has some good forecasters, it's rife with aftcasters and nowcasters...that is, people who look at what has happened and/or what is happening at this very instance and base their predictions for the entire season on that data alone. If the most recent storm has recurved, every storm from now until the end of the season is going to recurve. If wind shear tears one storm apart, wind shear is going to tear every system apart. If there've only been three storms in the past two months, there'll only be three named storms in the next two months. Conversely, of course, if a storm enters the GoM, every storm will follow suit. If one makes landfall in Florida, they'll all make landfall in Florida. And so on. You get the idea.

The trick, then, is to ignore the aftcasters/nowcasters, for there's nothing scientific about their methodologies. They're the forecasting equivalent of the XTRP non-model 'model'...and "right" just about as often :-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13304
Quoting utilaeastwind:
It looks like 92 is blowing up big time. Any thoughts on further development?
going inland no worries
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Being an Ohio native, that one ranks up there with nickle beer night at the Indians game. LOL


lol
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The one thing to remember is that if extreme high temps in Russia this summer are not to indicate anything as far as AGW is concerned, then any extreme cold temps this winter, likewise, should be treated the same (i.e. no related to AGW or AGC). Fair is fair.
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
It looks like 92 is blowing up big time. Any thoughts on further development?


I personally do not see any further development happening.... It lacks in overall organization... and is very close to central america
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Quoting Inyo:



yeah, best just to ignore global warming and hope it goes away.


It WILL go away. Whether man survives or not is in question. My bet is he will.
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This year is going exactly the opposite of how I anticipated it to go.... Seems like storms that form in the Caribbean all smash into mexico/tx and Cape Verde-esque systems are re-curving... I'm so confused as to what's going on with the steering layers...
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It looks like 92 is blowing up big time. Any thoughts on further development?
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Colin is the streaker, remember the guy back in the late 70's that streaked across the Cinn Reds baseball game? I was there with my pawpaw he covered my eyes i was really young then the song came out. The Streaker I think it was called.

sheri


Being an Ohio native, that one ranks up there with nickle beer night at the Indians game. LOL
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
Record heats, again??
It's a conspiracy guys, no truth in that, atall atall.
LOL
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Quoting Cotillion:
Someone in Moscow must've angered Nature this year.


It is not that Mother Nature has been angered. I suspect that this heat wave is a manifestation of AGW due to the millions of vodka stills that are in operation this summer in the land of Lenin.
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Quoting SLU:


Same thing I said at 1st glance because the overall pattern favours a more northward motion.


Yep it would be really hard for it to sustain an eastward motion with the current steering pattern and overall setup.... besides... on satellite you can almost see it getting sucked into the convection.
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Quoting SLU:
Rated-R

Parental guidance is strongly advised.



Naked swirl looks like its moving NE now... as a pulse of thunderstorms tries to grow westward north of the swirl. Trying hard to stack itself.
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Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Thanks Doc

Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know what's funny? Alex, TD2, and Bonnie are all ignored in that statement. Colin's going out to sea thanks to a unseasonable trough, 93L might follow, 'might', as the models are now starting to shift westward. One or two systems are not a indicator of the season.



Teddy --- That guy became #40 on my list. I truly am now a firm believer that the ignore list is the way to go, my blood pressure was only 130 over 85 this morning and I contribute that to the 100% increase on that list over the last couple of days... LOL

#41 just appeared on the new blog LMAO
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1402
The curious thing is....

You look at the rest of Europe, the temperatures aren't all that pronounced.

Berlin 25C, Paris 25C, Madrid 33C, Athens 32C...

Nothing bizarre for this time of year.

Someone in Moscow must've angered Nature this year.
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23. SLU
Quoting wfyweather:


One thing I'm seeing is the actuall llc is moving East Northeast while the convection isn't really moving a whole lot... but its building West... The llc might be trying to get sucked into the convection


Same thing I said at 1st glance because the overall pattern favours a more northward motion.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
Quoting FLdewey:
GW peeps can feel the hair on the back of their necks standing on end... they're coming.


Aww man!
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I expect it to be TS Danielle early next week


Its possible.. in fact... its quite possible it could do so this weekend.... But it is rather broad... and disorganized...
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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19. SLU
Quoting KennyNebraska:


LOL!

If Colin could just form a mirrored burst of convection on its western side, it would look just like a rear-end! :D


lol
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734
Quoting wfyweather:


Nice... is that the catl 93l?


I expect it to be TS Danielle early next week
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 109 Comments: 30287
Quoting SLU:
Rated-R

Parental guidance is strongly advised.



One thing I'm seeing is the actuall llc is moving East Northeast while the convection isn't really moving a whole lot... but its building West... The llc might be trying to get sucked into the convection
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Quoting wfyweather:


Nice... is that the catl 93l?
Yes.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Nice... is that the catl 93l?
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Quoting bjdsrq:
The funk in the western carib is flaring up this am a bit:
Link


Yeah but its really no big deal..
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Quoting Inyo:



yeah, best just to ignore global warming and hope it goes away.
lmao
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Rated-R

Parental guidance is strongly advised.

Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4734

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.