Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I do see rotation also. Run a visible loop of Colin though (which is currently a weak tropical storm) and compare that with the visible loop of 92L. 92L's rotation is not nearly as impressive in speed, and doesn't look as closed as Colin's does. 92L needs more time, time it may not have before getting to the Yucatan. There could be a weak low pressure center before it gets tot he Yucatan, and then it will enter the Gulf of Campeche, and we'll see what we have by then.


On the WV loop it appears that the system is becoming close to stationary.

What are your thoughts on this?
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Morning/Afternoon all

Just wanted to tell you guys about a woman who had a story run on her last night on the Houston news. They were talking about her track record for storm prediction accuracy. She has been on "target" 22 out of the last 25 years allegedley. The method to her madness has to do with historical tracks and sunspot activity I believe.

Here is a link to the news website if anyone wants to take a look.

Houston Woman Predicts Hurricanes

Sorry I forgot to mention, that she is predicting 8 storms this year with five becoming hurricanes
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Both LMAO



What was the saying? Don't look ethal booga booga here comes the streak. I probably spelled it wrong.
sheri

So colin is going to swipe Bermuda and some are saying 92l isn't really gonna do anything and 93l?
sheri
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Thanks for this blog entry/update. I'm especially appreciative of the information on the Russian fires and potentiality of radioactive waste release. Mike
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Quoting utilaeastwind:


I see rotation and some strong banding developing.

If the current intensification continues we could have a TS before 92 reaches the Yucatan.


Yeah, I do see rotation also. Run a visible loop of Colin though (which is currently a weak tropical storm) and compare that with the visible loop of 92L. 92L's rotation is not nearly as impressive in speed, and doesn't look as closed as Colin's does. 92L needs more time, time it may not have before getting to the Yucatan. There could be a weak low pressure center before it gets tot he Yucatan, and then it will enter the Gulf of Campeche, and we'll see what we have by then.
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Quoting Thaale:
As a general observation that wouldn't of course apply to many individuals, I've thought in recent years that younger people don't always appreciate just how common the recurve solution is. There seems to be a genral feeling afloat among many of the sub-30s that recurve years are relatively rare and usually occur in low activity seasons (2006, 2009), and that recurving major storms are rare within other years. Whereas years like 2004, 2005, 2007 are taken to be the norm.

But as a long-term rule, that doesn't hold true. Look at pretty much all the years 1995-2001. All in the current active phase of the AMO, a number of them high activity years. But pretty much all of them dominated by recurves (especially among the major storms, which are the most important for this discussion).

I can remember many a year in the 90s - and some in the 80s - where the wave train in Aug-Sep was queued up like an assembly arc, reading from E to NW: T-wave, Depression, TS, Hurricane - and all at different points on the same recurve trajectory.

Sometimes from the comments it seems like many expect a storm to just track due W along the 20th parallel like it's reading a map unless there's an overwhelming pull to the N somewhere, whereas I think it's more accurate that the neutral solution is to keep turning unless there's an unusually powerful ridge with no weaknesses in it in place all across the Atl - a situation that prevails much less than half the time.

Obviously later in the season, as storms begin to form in the E Caribbean and then the W Caribbean, there's no time for this to occur - and as some have noted, nowhere safe for a storm to recurve to from a human POV. But for classic CV storms like we're seeing now and likely still will for three-four more weeks, there's usually plenty of time and room for Coriolis and troughs to do their thing.


I agree with your point but I don't want to touch that age group thing LOL. I brought up recurvature earlier this season and again yesterday because it is good news and it should not be unexpected with the pattern for the season. No one should let their guard down because of a few recurving storms. This season has the potential to have multiple landfalls with devastating consequences. If we are lucky, 1/3 to 1/2 of say 18 storms could recurve or form on decaying off shore frontal boundaries and move away. That still leaves 9-12 landfalling storms in the Atlantic Basin.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Both LMAO

oops. But I like your answer better. LOL
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Quoting utilaeastwind:


I see rotation and some strong banding developing.

If the current intensification continues we could have a TS before 92 reaches the Yucatan.


thats wishcast of the week
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Quoting angiest:


indecent or incident??


Both LMAO
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Quoting lakeEFX:

Panhandle- I remember nickle beer night, too. There was a similar indecent like that at a Browns game a few years ago, also. I live in Lake County, just east of Cleveland. Where are you from?


Grew up in Y-town then moved to the Akron area for about 20 years before making my way down South. No more Lake effect for me LOL
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The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C. HOLY CRAP!!!! Now that is what I call a heat wave ;)
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former 92L looking better than Colin or 93L in terms of organization this morning, This is not moving over land as quick as they speculated imo, could go right through the yucatan channel and get in the Gulf imo., rainy day here in Grand Cayman btw.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


But could it reemerge out into the gulf??


It looks like it would continue due WNW into the Bay of Campeceh in the southwestern Gulf. Depending on how it looks when it crosses the Yucatan will determine if it develops over the Bay.
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Quoting SLU:


I've seen one or two streakers already in my lifetime. ;)


So have I, sadly.

Probability of an attendee at a major sporting eventsdeciding to streak is directly proportional to a) number of Y chromosomes and b) amount of body hair.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


While that visible sat. image looks a bit ominous, look at the loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I admit there is some organization in those clouds, but no real rotation in the animation. I think at most this would produce a weak low pressure spin before making it to Belize and the Yucatan.


I see rotation and some strong banding developing.

If the current intensification continues we could have a TS before 92 reaches the Yucatan.
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Quoting lakeEFX:

Panhandle- I remember nickle beer night, too. There was a similar indecent like that at a Browns game a few years ago, also. I live in Lake County, just east of Cleveland. Where are you from?


indecent or incident??
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Quoting K8eCane:
Oh yes they call him the streak
Fastest thing on two feet
Hes just as proud as he can be
Of his anatomy
He gonna give us a peek


that's it.lol
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which make me think that the NHC plots are wrong tatoprweather
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Being an Ohio native, that one ranks up there with nickle beer night at the Indians game. LOL

Panhandle- I remember nickle beer night, too. There was a similar indecent like that at a Browns game a few years ago, also. I live in Lake County, just east of Cleveland. Where are you from?
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Quoting K8eCane:
Oh yes they call him the streak
Fastest thing on two feet
Hes just as proud as he can be
Of his anatomy
He gonna give us a peek


lol
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Thanks Dr.....Dobre Dien.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


But could it reemerge out into the gulf??


Sure it could but it won't really matter... IF this thing is even able to get a weak surface low before the Yucatan then it might be something to watch.. however.. it remains this open... disorganized wave... then thats what it will exit as... and tropical waves enter the gulf all the time...
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Oh yes they call him the streak
Fastest thing on two feet
Hes just as proud as he can be
Of his anatomy
He gonna give us a peek
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Second to Third Week of August....One word....Yikes

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Extreme cold elsewhere in the world:

Link
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


While that visible sat. image looks a bit ominous, look at the loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I admit there is some organization in those clouds, but no real rotation in the animation. I think at most this would produce a weak low pressure spin before making it to Belize and the Yucatan.


But could it reemerge out into the gulf??
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82. SLU
Quoting weathermancer:


Naked swirl looks like its moving NE now... as a pulse of thunderstorms tries to grow westward north of the swirl. Trying hard to stack itself.


Quoting wfyweather:


Yep it would be really hard for it to sustain an eastward motion with the current steering pattern and overall setup.... besides... on satellite you can almost see it getting sucked into the convection.


It is definitely trying to get its act together.

Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Colin is the streaker, remember the guy back in the late 70's that streaked across the Cinn Reds baseball game? I was there with my pawpaw he covered my eyes i was really young then the song came out. The Streaker I think it was called.

sheri


I've seen one or two streakers already in my lifetime. ;)
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 12 Comments: 4915
the wave that cam off the coast of africa yesterday tropicfreak now I am saying that it might become 94L so don't get confused now it might


Neapolitan 92L is not moving fast it moving slow might be sunday or monday before hitting the yucatan
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


The Green is over the East Atlantic.

So its Hinting where going to have more CV Activity?


Pretty Much, yeah.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Not so sure 92L won't have time to stage a comeback before hitting the Yucatan tomorrow. Lookin' good right now, there's a bit of rotation, shear is low, and it's over the highest TCHP in the entire MDR.



While that visible sat. image looks a bit ominous, look at the loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

I admit there is some organization in those clouds, but no real rotation in the animation. I think at most this would produce a weak low pressure spin before making it to Belize and the Yucatan.
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Wow

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Quoting will45:


the mention of the word heat will bring them
Dr. Master as usual present different weather related issues, sometimes could be GW, today is about a phenomenal that happens every 500 years, which is a High been block, causing the excessive heat over portions of Europe and Big Mother Russia. He will bring the GW subject when he pleases, is his blog.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Explain What it means?

Not Familar with that graphic.


Its the GFS's forecast for the MJO. The green (Upward Motion) means that conditions will be more favorable for development, while the organish colors mean Downward Motion, making it harder for disturbances to form.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


This is far southwest that the actual coordinates for 93L
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As a general observation that wouldn't of course apply to many individuals, I've thought in recent years that younger people don't always appreciate just how common the recurve solution is. There seems to be a genral feeling afloat among many of the sub-30s that recurve years are relatively rare and usually occur in low activity seasons (2006, 2009), and that recurving major storms are rare within other years. Whereas years like 2004, 2005, 2007 are taken to be the norm.

But as a long-term rule, that doesn't hold true. Look at pretty much all the years 1995-2001. All in the current active phase of the AMO, a number of them high activity years. But pretty much all of them dominated by recurves (especially among the major storms, which are the most important for this discussion).

I can remember many a year in the 90s - and some in the 80s - where the wave train in Aug-Sep was queued up like an assembly arc, reading from E to NW: T-wave, Depression, TS, Hurricane - and all at different points on the same recurve trajectory.

Sometimes from the comments it seems like many expect a storm to just track due W along the 20th parallel like it's reading a map unless there's an overwhelming pull to the N somewhere, whereas I think it's more accurate that the neutral solution is to keep turning unless there's an unusually powerful ridge with no weaknesses in it in place all across the Atl - a situation that prevails much less than half the time.

Obviously later in the season, as storms begin to form in the E Caribbean and then the W Caribbean, there's no time for this to occur - and as some have noted, nowhere safe for a storm to recurve to from a human POV. But for classic CV storms like we're seeing now and likely still will for three-four more weeks, there's usually plenty of time and room for Coriolis and troughs to do their thing.
Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All this "recurvature year" nonsense it truly premature. Out of the 4 tropical cyclones we've witnessed, only 1 is about to recurve.


I second that
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All this "recurvature year" nonsense it truly premature. Out of the 4 tropical cyclones we've witnessed, only 1 is about to recurve.
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Quoting centex:
It needs to be watched.


as does any wave or disturbance moving across a favorable spot in the atlantic... even unfavorable spots for that matter... I just do not see this thing organizing a whole lot...
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
It appears that a COC is developing at 16.5N 84W and there is rapid intensification.

I do not think the central american coast will affect development at all.

I see a COC at 16.5N 82.5W moving slowly WNW Central America should not be a problem for it
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Quoting AussieStorm:

to much vodka poured down the drains.


The only Russian I've ever known only drank wine when it came to alcohol.

Back to Moscow:

Vodnikii, Vodnikii, MOSCOW OBLAST (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 46 sec ago

34.1 °C
Smoke
Humidity: 37%
Dew Point: 17 °C
Wind: Calm

Wind Gust: 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 1019.2 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 35 °C
Visibility: 0.4 kilometers
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Elevation: 212 m

You don't see that too often when it comes to weather observation.
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No AGW crap for me today. I'm burned out on subject. Time will tell. One way or the other.
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Quoting wfyweather:


I like the looks of that.


I do too.
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Quoting StormW:


I like the looks of that.
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Quoting wfyweather:


I think the Central American Coast will prohibit development.... I cannot see it organizing much.... if any further
It needs to be watched.
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Not so sure 92L won't have time to stage a comeback before hitting the Yucatan tomorrow. Lookin' good right now, there's a bit of rotation, shear is low, and it's over the highest TCHP in the entire MDR.

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13470
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
repost from last blog


guys couple of things before I go

1 92L is making a comback look like to at 16.5N 82.5W

2 93L might not become a fish and maybe impact the leeward Islands

3 colin seems to be moving east now

4 pre-94L what is going on !?!?


Wait, where is this pre-94L?
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Quoting utilaeastwind:
It appears that a COC is developing at 16.5N 84W and there is rapid intensification.

I do not think the central american coast will affect development at all.


Rapid Intensification is a drop of pressure by 42 points in a 24 hour poeriod. Definitely not RI.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.