Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting angiest:
Extreme cold elsewhere in the world:

Link


Definitely cold...but "coldest winter in 40 years" isn't quite the same as "all-time record highs in multiple nations".

The heat is on.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13800
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
See AL92 is back from the dead


AL 92 2010080518 BEST 0 140N 808W 25 1009 DB
AL 92 2010080612 BEST 0 155N 830W 25 1009 DB


Looks like 92L's going to make another go at becoming a storm. Satellite revels good structure.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
156. SLU
Quoting ho77yw00d:
Link


LOL!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not much going on at the surface. It has a limited window for organization and it is slowly slimming down.


I disagree as most of the trcks take the system into the BOC now and not over land for a long period of time

I dont think they would have brought 92L back if they didnt feel it had a shot
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Quoting Thaale:

Quoting SLU:


I've seen one or two streakers already in my lifetime. ;)



So have I, sadly.

Probability of an attendee at a major sporting eventsdeciding to streak is directly proportional to a) number of Y chromosomes and b) amount of body hair.
******
c)amount of alcohol imbibed. d)quality of dare from equally besotted buddies e)lack of significant other
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Quoting reedzone:
MiamiHurricanes09, I just posted a new blog on HurricaneJunky, go check it out!
Hey! Me too! LOL. I'll check yours out in a sec.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Hmm....where do u think it might go?


I believe it is going well out to sea, should stay east of Bermuda IMO
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not much going on at the surface. It has a limited window for organization and it is slowly slimming down.


There is some vorticity with it. It wouldn't take much to spin down to the surface with the very favorable conditions. Proximity to land is the only inhibitor I can see. It may have just enough time. 12z GFS spins up a low in
24 hours still east of the the Yucatan. Moves it into the BoC in 48 hours.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
MiamiHurricanes09, I just posted a new blog on HurricaneJunky, go check it out!
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Quoting extreme236:


Not surprising at all. Very easily could become a tropical cyclone soon if trends continue.


Hmm....where do u think it might go?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not much going on at the surface. It has a limited window for organization and it is slowly slimming down.


finally someone who agrees
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146. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Until 93L separates from the ITCZ take the models with little credibility. 93L is much larger, so it will take longer to fully organize and that means it might go a similar path as Colin or even more south.


That's pretty much going to determine how strong it will get.
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Quoting extreme236:
GFS has been very persistent on sending 93L well out to sea, east of Colin's track, and that seems reasonable to me.


it is reasonable... in fact... likely... because the ridge will already be broken down...
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Quoting extreme236:


Not surprising at all. Very easily could become a tropical cyclone soon if trends continue.
Not much going on at the surface. It has a limited window for organization and it is slowly slimming down.
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GFS has been very persistent on sending 93L well out to sea, east of Colin's track, and that seems reasonable to me.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
See AL92 is back from the dead


AL 92 2010080518 BEST 0 140N 808W 25 1009 DB
AL 92 2010080612 BEST 0 155N 830W 25 1009 DB


Not surprising at all. Very easily could become a tropical cyclone soon if trends continue.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
You know... I haven't seen anyone say anything about this,.. but it definitely needs to be watched... a cold front now located over the southern states will be moving over the gulf ina couple days... and as indicated by the ecmwf... this may spur development.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Not sure if you are reffering to Colin or 92L.

In Colin's case, the water vapor imagery only shows the highest cloud tops, which are firing in the same place over the last few hours. But, the visible loop shows a recent erratic ENE motion of Colin's swirl, which should turn north soon. The ENE motion is likely due to Colin trying to reform underneath its sheared off storms. Water vapor imagery is not really good at showing exposed swirl centers when storms are sheared, so it hard to judge the motion of a sheared system in water vapor imagery.

In 92L's case, I see a general WNW motion of its cloudiness.


I agree with you on the WNW motion.

Thanks for your take on the WV loop.
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See AL92 is back from the dead


AL 92 2010080518 BEST 0 140N 808W 25 1009 DB
AL 92 2010080612 BEST 0 155N 830W 25 1009 DB
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my oh my oh my colin looks half naked there!
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Quoting angiest:


indecent or incident??


An indecent incident maybe?
The game where the browns' fans pelted the jaguars with cups and plastic beer bottles was definitely an indecent incident.
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Quoting SLU:
Meanwhile 93L is gaining more circulation but its in a region of lower SSTs and more stable air which is why I believe if it takes the path predicted by the models, it might not strengthen into a very powerful system. It will most likely remain a weak to moderate strength tropical storm.

It is still generally too early in the month to see major Cape Verde development unless the systems remain further south. A path like 93L will mostly result in a relatively weak system in early August.





Until 93L separates from the ITCZ take the models with little credibility. 93L is much larger, so it will take longer to fully organize and that means it might go a similar path as Colin or even more south.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Convection in with ex92L has continued to build...looks to be steadily organizing.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Colin reborn, 93L a threat to become Danielle
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24575
Quoting utilaeastwind:


On the WV loop it appears that the system is becoming close to stationary.

What are your thoughts on this?


Not sure if you are reffering to Colin or 92L.

In Colin's case, the water vapor imagery only shows the highest cloud tops, which are firing in the same place over the last few hours. But, the visible loop shows a recent erratic ENE motion of Colin's swirl, which should turn north soon. The ENE motion is likely due to Colin trying to reform underneath its sheared off storms. Water vapor imagery is not really good at showing exposed swirl centers when storms are sheared, so it hard to judge the motion of a sheared system in water vapor imagery.

In 92L's case, I see a general WNW motion of its cloudiness.
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127. BDAwx
Looks a little like convections is trying to wrap around Colin to the north and is building on the southern side.
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BBL, Gotta go do some grocery shopping -- Kids want food!
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12z thru 48 keeps the wave behind 93L and 93L separate, and weak.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
122. SLU
Meanwhile 93L is gaining more circulation but its in a region of lower SSTs and more stable air which is why I believe if it takes the path predicted by the models, it might not strengthen into a very powerful system. It will most likely remain a weak to moderate strength tropical storm.

It is still generally too early in the month to see major Cape Verde development unless the systems remain further south. A path like 93L will mostly result in a relatively weak system in early August.



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Quoting extreme236:
Accuweather thinks that 93L will combine with the wave to its east, which will spur development.
Colin part 2 huh? I didn't think of that until now.
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Quoting stormlvr:


I agree with your point but I don't want to touch that age group thing LOL. I brought up recurvature earlier this season and again yesterday because it is good news and it should not be unexpected with the pattern for the season. No one should let their guard down because of a few recurving storms. This season has the potential to have multiple landfalls with devastating consequences. If we are lucky, 1/3 to 1/2 of say 18 storms could recurve or form on decaying off shore frontal boundaries and move away. That still leaves 9-12 landfalling storms in the Atlantic Basin.


Yeah, LOL, not trying to start a reverse don't trust anyone under 30 meme! I know there are plenty of teens here, never mind 20-somethings, who do know what they're talking about. It's probably just harder when you can't remember years like 1995 and 1996 and have to learn about them in the history books.

One thing I like seeing, inasmuch as I like seeing development at all, is the waves coming off of Africa at relatively high latitudes and getting fairly well organized E of 35°. Is there something about some years that makes it more likely that waves will come off the coast at 12° to 15° N like this recent one and maybe the next one, rather than 9° or so? Of course, they sometimes track WSW for a while after they do make it to the Atlantic.

A system like 93L is exactly the type that doesn't look like it should pose much risk to the Caribbean or CONUS (and hopefully not Bermuda). If they could all form at that general area instead of 300-400 miles south or SW of there, I could enjoy watching these things.
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Quoting extreme236:
Accuweather thinks that 93L will combine with the wave to its east, which will spur development.

That's what happened with Colin. so It could happen again
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Accuweather thinks that 93L will combine with the wave to its east, which will spur development.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting lakeEFX:

oops. But I like your answer better. LOL


Ohio (Cleveland) Just can't catch a break -- Red right 88 -- Browns leave town and win Superbowl in Baltimore -- the Drive -- the Fumble -- The beer incidents (including the beer bottle throwing at JAX players) -- Cuyahoga River catches fire -- Michael Jordan -- LeBron leaves town -- Rock and Roll Hall of fame (not as big of attraction as anticipated) --- Two outs away from winning the World Series -- Kucinich bankrupting the city in the 70's.

Sorry if I depressed you, but it's all facts. I still have a tiny place in my heart for NE Ohio, but it's very small... LOL
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Quoting utilaeastwind:


On the WV loop it appears that the system is becoming close to stationary.

What are your thoughts on this?

Any disturbance or storm in that area this time of year runs into very weak steering currents that is usually why they blow up so fast former 92L could be one these systems not saying its going to but could very well be
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Quoting SLU:


I've even seen female streakers too ... more than once.


I wouldnt mind a female streaker. XD
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Well peeps, I'll be offline for a few day to a week, moving 2 doors down. Everyone take care, I will keep myself updated on the NHC via my mobile. Goodnight, Stay safe,
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111. myway
Quoting stormlvr:


I agree with your point but I don't want to touch that age group thing LOL. I brought up recurvature earlier this season and again yesterday because it is good news and it should not be unexpected with the pattern for the season. No one should let their guard down because of a few recurving storms. This season has the potential to have multiple landfalls with devastating consequences. If we are lucky, 1/3 to 1/2 of say 18 storms could recurve or form on decaying off shore frontal boundaries and move away. That still leaves 9-12 landfalling storms in the Atlantic Basin.


If we are lucky....they will all recurve.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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