Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ho77yw00d:


lol I think she was awsome :)

Me too........
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Good post Storm, Thanks.
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205. SLU
No prizes for guessing where the party is going to be this year.

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
yes sarahjola I see it too
thanks! thought i was seeing that right. so what could this mean for 92l? could this have the potential to develop in the next 24-48 hours? it seems to be headed wnw. what do see as far as steering goes? thanks in advance:)
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Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 6th, with Video
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Quoting StormW:
EXPLANATION OF THE RELATION OF THE NAO and STORM RECURVATURE


StormW~ thank you for such a awesome explanation, even i could understand. Thank you again.
sher
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198. 7544
when will we see the new runs on the speghitti models for 92l tia
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yes sarahjola I see it too
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


What the... Lol


lol I think she was awsome :)
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StormW
Post 160.
Thank You.
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What did I tell you all about two or three days ago about the thunderstorms ont he Gulf Coast? Signs the high is shifting meaning 92L would jog to the north. Not saying it will go right into the Gulf but it will jog to the north and we are seeing that. the models are sucking all up and down the gulf coast. It is going to affect their tracks on 92L.
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Below is the current 26.C isotherm depth chart. Note the hundreds of thousands of square miles of ocean with 26.C or warmer water down to between 250' (green) and 325' (yellow) below the surface. There's also a growing pool of water in the northwestern Caribbean where 26.C water extends down to nearly 500'. (The blue shading in the Bahamas, and along the eastern coasts of both continents and the Gulf of Mexico, doesn't mean warm water isn't far from the surface; it means, rather, that the water is shallow in those areas. That is, there is no water deeper than 100'.)Come and get it!

Next is the current SST map. Note that most of the non-land area in this image is capable of sustaining tropical cyclones; only those areas in blue and located outside the solid red line are too cool for TCs. Pay special attention to the expanding area of surface temperatures at or above 32.C (about 90.F) on Florida's west coast, in parts of the Bahamas, at the northern edge of Cuba, and stretched out in the western Atlantic between the 8th and 10th parallels.Come and get it!

And finally, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. The entire light-blue (and lighter) area bounded by the solid line has a storm-developing potential of at least 70 kJ/cm2, while the red area surrounding Jamaica has a pretty remarkable TCHP of 110 kJ/cm2 or higher. Even a slow-moving storm in the latter area wouldn't have a problem overcoming upwelling, and would instead likely increase in strength.Come and get it!
Note: most of the Gulf generally sees its maximum SSTs in August, while the northern half of the Caribbean tops out in September. The southern Caribbean and parts of the eastern Atlantic max out in October. (Link)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13510
Update...info...scoop...skinny...411...news...
Link
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thanks beell
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WOW



WOW



WOW

img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/rb-l.jpg" alt=""

Maybe when 12Z TWO comes out we may see two oranges 93L 40% and 92L 30% and Colin
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184. beell
Quoting sarahjola:
does anyone else see the spin in that area, or is it just me?:)


Maybe. For me, best spin along 15-16N. Just moving onshore.
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Quoting 7544:
92l back on the navy site

if it gets in the gulf could it turn ne with the front coming down tia

waiting for the models on 92l


yeah the front could play a role in its track.... the front itself could spin up something too,....
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Quoting sarahjola:
i see a spin at 18n 82w. what do you think?
does anyone else see the spin in that area, or is it just me?:)
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Thanks storm. Been waiting. Lol
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
Impressive cyclonic curvature associated with 93L (which would explain the nearly closed surface low on ASCAT). Not much going on with 92L, just some broad curvature.



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The big picture:

Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13510
176. 7544
92l back on the navy site

if it gets in the gulf could it turn ne with the front coming down tia

waiting for the models on 92l
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L


Good Afternoon!

Looks like 92L is trying to organize into a TD. Look at those nice feeder bands!
-----

Does anyone think that this map is at least a tad off?

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EXTREMELY great post... stormw :)
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
164. mcluvincane 4:21 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

Its not ex, 92L was never deactivated
Yes it was.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
164. mcluvincane 4:21 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

Its not ex, 92L was never deactivated


Earlier today it was

08/06/2010 12:32PM 1,646 invest_DEACTIVATE_al922010.ren
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170. RayT
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I do see rotation also. Run a visible loop of Colin though (which is currently a weak tropical storm) and compare that with the visible loop of 92L. 92L's rotation is not nearly as impressive in speed, and doesn't look as closed as Colin's does. 92L needs more time, time it may not have before getting to the Yucatan. There could be a weak low pressure center before it gets tot he Yucatan, and then it will enter the Gulf of Campeche, and we'll see what we have by then.


well, all I know is the SST's are boiling. As a guy who has lurked for some time, it is my understanding that tropical system will churn up cold water from the depths and cool off the SSTs in its wake. So my hope is that this storm will be strong enough to churn up some of the cold water from below then hopefully the next storm doesnt come along and become a beast in the hot waters.
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Some weak 925mb vorticity under 92L. Let's see, it may have time, although slow motion is key.

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164. mcluvincane 4:21 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

Its not ex, 92L was never deactivated
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colins llc is slowly... but surely getting pulled into the convection... organizing nicely :)
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Great post storm! :)
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165. SLU
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Quoting extreme236:


I believe it is going well out to sea, should stay east of Bermuda IMO


Sorry you may have misunderstood. I meant ex92L
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1339
i see a spin at 18n 82w. what do you think?
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92L
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23929
Quoting angiest:
Extreme cold elsewhere in the world:

Link


Definitely cold...but "coldest winter in 40 years" isn't quite the same as "all-time record highs in multiple nations".

The heat is on.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13510

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.