Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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258. SLU
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Tropical Storm Colin in terms of Wind Speeds?

A. 40 mph
B. 45 mph
C. 50 mph
D. 55 mph
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 92L in terms of percentages?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 93L in terms of percentages?

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: Will the National Hurricane Center mention the wave to the East of 93L?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Not sure
-----------------------------------------------

Phew! For me, I have to go with B, B, C or D, B.
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257. DVG
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 6th, with Video


Appreciate your work. The split you refer to I believe Bastardi called a few days ago. Yes?
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some surface convergence w/92L,could be next td imo,something near 15.5N and 81.5W,maybe a new surface LLC !!!!
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C B D B for me
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Does Colin have the park break on? It doesn't seem to be going anywhere.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Thanks Levi!
Quoting KimberlyB:


Afternoon and thanks for the update Levi.


No problem =)
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252. unf97
Bryan Norcross is indeed going to the Weather Channel as an OCM and "Hurricane Specialist". This is an excellent move by TWC as I have a good deal of respect for Norcross. This may make me watch them now during their tropical updates.

Link:

http://twctoday.com/forums/new-ocm-bryan-norcross/
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

C C E B
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm 04L (COLIN) Warning
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of FRI 06 Aug 2010 17:09:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
93L.INVEST
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
07E.SEVEN(T.C.F.W.)
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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Quoting Levi32:


I don't think so, but don't be caught sleeping.


Afternoon and thanks for the update Levi.
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248. Skyepony (Mod)
7544~ it is true..
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241. TropicalAnalystwx13 1:07 PM EDT on August 06, 2010

B, B, D, B for me.
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Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog Update:

Tropical Tidbit for Friday, August 6th, with Video

Thanks Levi!
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244. unf97
Good afternoon everyone!
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Quoting sarahjola:
could 92l be the storm that models were picking up a few days ago and bringing it into the gulf?
Yes.
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:

I think the "plenty Moisture" remark was to do with the Caribbean Blob........
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Poll time!

Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Tropical Storm Colin in terms of Wind Speeds?

A. 40 mph
B. 45 mph
C. 50 mph
D. 55 mph
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 92L in terms of percentages?

A. Near 0%
B. 10%
C. 20%
D. 30%
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: What will the National Hurricane Center give Invest 93L in terms of percentages?

A. 20%
B. 30%
C. 40%
D. 50%
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: Will the National Hurricane Center mention the wave to the East of 93L?

A. Yes
B. No
C. Not sure
-----------------------------------------------

Phew! For me, I have to go with B, B, C or D, B.
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could 92l be the storm that models were picking up a few days ago and bringing it into the gulf?
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Quoting GetReal:


Not bad. Has some divergence and convergence, but not nearly as much as Colin does.
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Good Afternoon! Back from school.
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Quoting Relix:
So anything that can pose a threat to the Caribbean in the next 7 days?


I don't think so, but don't be caught sleeping.
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Quoting 7544:
dont know if its true but is bryan noycross from fla working for the twc as a hurricane expert this year ?
WHAT?!?!?!?!? You serious? If you are, that's awesome! Now I may actually watch TWC.
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234. SLU
Quoting StormW:


Your place? (j/k).

Afternoon SLU.


LOL. Let's hope not.

Good afternoon StormW
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233. 7544
dont know if its true but is bryan noycross from fla working for the twc as a hurricane expert this year ?
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Afternoon all.

Good afternoon Storm. I'm on my way to your update now. Looking forward to it, especially after reading all the trainees, like me, and their great feedback.

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Quoting 7544:
92l back on the navy site

if it gets in the gulf could it turn ne with the front coming down tia

waiting for the models on 92l


If that were to occur, Florida would be in deep trouble.
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Thanks storm....
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Quoting Thaale:
Quoting SLU:


I've seen one or two streakers already in my lifetime. ;)


So have I, sadly.

Probability of an attendee at a major sporting eventsdeciding to streak is directly proportional to a) number of Y chromosomes and b) amount of body hair.


C) home teams score D) number of beers ingested
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Quoting GetReal:



I have to slightly disagree with that analysis on 92L... There is PLENTY of energy currently piling up in the NW Caribbean!!!
You mean moisture? Yes there is plenty of moisture associated with 92L. However there are no signs that there is a low associated with it.

Surface observations suggest that pressures are relatively high, around 1013mb. Winds are also all below 10 knots within the system.
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I think convection is starting to flare up over the center again
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Any models on 92L?
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223. Relix
So anything that can pose a threat to the Caribbean in the next 7 days?
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222. Skyepony (Mod)
CMC picked up on the frontal low yesterday.. I'm somewhat in a agreement Colin may pull it like over GA or in the ATL before it detaches, which would bring more rain to the SE & NFL as opposed to a 'cane to the gulf. Hard to say with real confidence at the moment. Something interesting to see unfold..
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Quoting Skyepony:
Miami~ 92L does show an insane amount of moisture compared to the rest on the TPW you posted.. Central America should get drowned again..

Yup, plenty of moisture.
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Quoting sarahjola:
thanks! thought i was seeing that right. so what could this mean for 92l? could this have the potential to develop in the next 24-48 hours? it seems to be headed wnw. what do see as far as steering goes? thanks in advance:)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Impressive cyclonic curvature associated with 93L (which would explain the nearly closed surface low on ASCAT). Not much going on with 92L, just some broad curvature.






I have to slightly disagree with that analysis on 92L... There is PLENTY of energy currently piling up in the NW Caribbean!!!
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Ty Storm, so basically what you're saying is that the ridges don't push the storms, they pull them...so the stronger the ridge, the storm wants to recurve.
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217. Skyepony (Mod)
I gave Hurricane Colin a good chance of affecting Bermuda 2 days ago. Suppose I should scale that back a touch to strong TS or weak hurricane. Still think Bermuda is in for some Colin.
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Any bloggers in Aruba/Bonaire/Curacao?
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215. Skyepony (Mod)
Miami~ 92L does show an insane amount of moisture compared to the rest on the TPW you posted.. Central America should get drowned again..

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Quoting wfyweather:
You know... I haven't seen anyone say anything about this,.. but it definitely needs to be watched... a cold front now located over the southern states will be moving over the gulf ina couple days... and as indicated by the ecmwf... this may spur development.



JB mentioned it in his blog this morning. Something to watch.
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Hello everyone, so the other area is moving NW too? (orange circle). Weird, I thought things were suppose to be more westward this year. Will that NW direction stay or will it change?
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


lol I think she was awsome :)

Me too........
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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