Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting aquak9:
tampa- do you think there's any possibilty for a loop? Older BAM suite had such a hard dive to the SE a day or two ago.


I don't think a loop will occur....but, i am sure less than 50% in my mind that its going to go harmlessly out to sea as models first thought. Not really sure as it move West much further that another gap will open...as it is now currently due South of the hole shot.....I believe 93L is coming much further West now.



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Still look to be coming from a cutoff low due to our gulf/east coast trough?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF latching on to a system in the Gulf by 120 hours.

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2057. Patrap
Presslord on TV with the New Portlight Response Trailer and more.

Note the wunderground Logos too.





TravelMets's WunderBlog



TravelMets Podcast with the Portlight Info as well,from Thursday show Premiere.
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Howdy everyone...
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2055. aquak9
Quoting NotJFV:
on that note y'all have an opulent day... I gotta go walk my little Giraffe


BWWAHAHAHAA!!! I LOVES THAT COMMERCIAL!!
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I am still getting some bad vibes coming from 93L ....Models are not as agreeable now as they once was.....i am starting to believe it will get trapped under the high and not move as far north as first thought.






Thought about that myself too
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Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:






LOOK AT 30 WEST WOW

I'll say "wow" when it actually turns into something significant...and based on this season so far, the chances of that are quite low IMO.
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00z ECMWF latching on to a system in the Gulf by 120 hours.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
2051. NotJFV
on that note y'all have an opulent day... I gotta go walk my little Giraffe
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Impressive wave behind 93L, this is the same one that was very impressive coming off the African coast.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
93L looks better this am.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
2048. aquak9
tampa- do you think there's any possibilty for a loop? Older BAM suite had such a hard dive to the SE a day or two ago.
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morning ms
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Quoting Eugeniopr:
Ladies and Gents, get your rod and reel instead of your computers for a fishy season.


Lack of patience, to early to say, ect.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
Good morning everyone
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I am still getting some bad vibes coming from 93L ....Models are not as agreeable now as they once was.....i am starting to believe it will get trapped under the high and not move as far north as first thought.




timing is everything, if it slows down isnt drawn northward, has more time to strengthen & isnt drawn into the gap between highs it could continue further west, the models seem to be struggling with it.
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I am still getting some bad vibes coming from 93L ....Models are not as agreeable now as they once was.....i am starting to believe it will get trapped under the high and not move as far north as first thought.




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2042. Patrap
.."I Jump in it"..
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Look how shear is running below average in the Caribbean and GOM.




That might come back to haunt us.
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2040. QMiami
from local 10 in miami. interesting all morning they have been circling the blob at 30 west as the 40% and how it is looking better. not circling where nhc has 93l?

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2039. aquak9
NotJ_V- awesome song, but that commercial at the beginning liked to kill me!! Good song to scream the lyrics to. Always got LinkinPark, or some Korn for music when I gotta go on a RedCross call.

Coops- I do enjoy BF&F. Love the way they incorporate the african influence and instruments in, as well.

Walking a thin line here folks- I don't need another ban- we're hoping for some good thunderboomers here in NE Fla today. Need rain bad. Hoping also for some good churning action at the local coastline, too.
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Quoting StormW:

Storm, is there a reason for the MJO charts not being updated since Wednesday?
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I always listen to everyone's opinions, however i listen to some more than others, if Levi or StormW speak i listen & read everyone, theirs are trusted fact backed illustrated , the cv season is just starting even though the itcz is low the sal is north & the a/b high is as well with sst's above normal especially in the gom & surrounding western carib, we have all the ingrediants for systems to grow with RI, depending on steering currents, the late season is western carib is less likely to produce "fish", ( back to lurking)
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2036. IKE
Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning, all. Morning, Aqua - how'd you like Bela Fleck and the Flecktones?

Ike, I always like it when you indicate another stress free week ahead, LOL.




Thanks:) That is subject to change.
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Look how shear is running below average in the Caribbean and GOM.



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2034. NotJFV
Link

ok aqua... here you go!!! I might get a ban now....
hmmmm... ok how can I link this to tropical weather..... I can't..
I'm self imposing a ban on myself then, see ya in 24
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Quoting Eugeniopr:
Ladies and Gents, get your rod and reel instead of your computers for a fishy season.


Afraid there will be a few of those critters on the bank before Turkey Day. As the Fish might say instead of the Cow ......"EAT MORE TURKEY" i hope.
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Morning, all. Morning, Aqua - how'd you like Bela Fleck and the Flecktones?

Ike, I always like it when you indicate another stress free week ahead, LOL.


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Quoting WindynEYW:
Morning Tampa i think everyone is getting false sense of security based on events to date. it only takes one "REAL" storm for any season to be bad


Yep i agree we have been lucky thus far that most of the spin action has been in the Atlantic as shear has been running mostly below average slightly there, while shear in the Caribbean and GOM is running much more below average. Luck will be running out soon i'm sure.
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My take:

Judging from today's 12UTC multiplatform satellite surface wind analysis, I believe 93L could very well receive a TD designation later today.

It also wouldn't surprise me at all to see the area a few hundred miles to 93L's southeast get at least a colored circle later today; it appears very healthy on satellite, which it should, as this is the energy from that beautiful, robust wave that slid off the African coast two days ago.

92L lost most of its convection overnight, though while it's flaring up again this morning, it really appears to have no time to make a name for itself, at least not unless/until it crosses the Yucatan still somewhat intact.

As others have noted, the tail end of the cold front coming off the eastern seaboard will need to be watched for the next couple of days for signs of development, but right now there seems to be nothing.

Colin? Well, Colin's Colin. What more can I say? :-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13473
Ladies and Gents, get your rod and reel instead of your computers for a fishy season.
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2028. breald
Quoting TampaSpin:


Morning, ya i wish but, don't get too use to it. If you know what i mean.


I hear you guys. We are in the beginning of the active season.

Be back later this afternoon. Have a good one.
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Well, with cold PDO, some of the warmest AMO numbers ever (in line with 1998 and higher figures than 2005), a strong La Nina coming...

I wouldn't want to signal the 'bust' of the season until September. 1998 didn't get kicked off until mid August, and most of the 1950 seasons didn't get kicked off until mid August either (similar condition: warm waters, lots of warm water, and PDO recently changed to cold, and strong La Ninas.).

If things are still quiet in a month, then we'll see. But, history tells us...
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Quoting StormW:


It varies...here's a table which provides the monthly means since 1950, each year beginning with January:

NAO Tabular Format


Umm; i think i got it, just looking at the numbers anyway, but looking at all the figures
to get to these numbers is a lot to wrap my mind around right now.
Thanks for the response i'm planning on looking at this in more detail though, looks like a good tool.
Thanks
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Yes, I am curious about 30 West too
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Morning, ya i wish but, don't get too use to it. If you know what i mean.
Morning Tampa i think everyone is getting false sense of security based on events to date. it only takes one "REAL" storm for any season to be bad
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Quoting aquak9:


g'morning Bre! Yes I think we should enjoy this as long as possible. Like, till November would work for me. :)


Morning, ya i wish but, don't get too use to it. If you know what i mean.
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2021. IKE
Clothes off again?

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2019. aquak9
Quoting breald:
Morning Everyone. Nothing much has changed in the tropics.


g'morning Bre! Yes I think we should enjoy this as long as possible. Like, till November would work for me. :)
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Happy Birthday...To ME! :)
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI
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2016. breald
Morning Everyone. Nothing much has changed in the tropics.
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2015. aquak9
cotilion- got it in the backgorund, yeah that's good wake-up music. I'll have some LinkinPark/Jay-Z later on (go on brush your shoulders off)

Hey Ike! thank you SO MUCH for sharing- we got 0.13 last night. You are so generous!

(sarcasm flag ON)
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Quoting StormW:



Hmmm....lots of green I see
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2012. IKE
You may be correct aquak, about too much of a good thing.

Not too hard to take this morning....

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Quoting aquak9:
whoa cotilion- ballroom blitz? Heavy stuff so early, think I'll stick w/the straits...

Ike I compared it to an ice cream sundae. Ice cream, hot fudge, a cherry = perfect.

But this Season%u2122 is like three flavors of ice cream, hot fudge, nuts, whipped cream, sprinkles, strawberries, bananas, pineapples, and circus music in the background.

Kinda overloaded, and it's just too much of a good thing.


Morning.

Well, I did add some classical composition before to even it out...

And, it's afternoon here. :)

But, here's something softer to wake gently to...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.