Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Question: What was the strongest hurricane ever recorded to NOT form from a tropical wave (ie, trough split)? The strongest one I could find was Hurricane Diana in 1984.


Think I found the answer, Hurricane Claudette in 1991 was a Category 4 hurricane that formed out of a non-tropical system.
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INV/92/L
MARK
16.31N/83.23W
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, I don't even think it has a low pressure area.


It's just an interesting Tropical Wave.
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386. Jeff9641 11:13 AM PDT on August 06, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


read this again

SHEAR
WILL
DROP
TONIGHT!!



Read this again no stronger than TS. LOL




poof
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114960
Quoting Tazmanian:
09 or 101 dos 92L have a closed low??? all so dos it have a ch be comeing name be for land fall thing can spin up fast
No, I don't even think it has a low pressure area.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


last I saw, it did not


ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114960
401. BDAwx
Quoting Jeff9641:
The convection is much more impressive with former 92L than Colin. Colin just can't seem to escape the shear. Probably gets no stronger than 50 mph during it's life cycle. Area around FL this weekend thru Tuesday looks intriguing and so does ex 92L.


it was a 60mph storm yesterday.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Diana was a Category 4 that formed off a trough split. That's the strongest one I could find.
1984. It hit a nuclear power plant in N.C. It was on the news of course.
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Here we go! Pressure down to 1008mb and still not at the center.

000
URNT15 KNHC 061810
AF306 0304A COLIN HDOB 15 20100806
180030 2723N 06557W 9772 00300 0112 240 164 190033 034 033 003 00
180100 2723N 06558W 9776 00295 0111 240 166 187031 033 035 003 03
180130 2724N 06600W 9774 00297 0109 240 168 186034 035 035 004 00
180200 2725N 06601W 9772 00297 0108 240 170 188034 034 034 002 03
180230 2725N 06603W 9769 00299 0107 243 172 187035 038 035 005 00
180300 2726N 06605W 9773 00295 0107 243 173 186036 038 036 002 00
180330 2727N 06606W 9774 00293 0106 241 174 189037 037 038 001 00
180400 2728N 06608W 9772 00292 0104 239 175 187038 039 039 002 00
180430 2728N 06610W 9772 00291 0103 233 174 185039 040 037 003 00
180500 2729N 06611W 9774 00287 0102 226 170 183042 042 039 002 00
180530 2730N 06613W 9772 00289 0101 222 166 184041 043 039 006 03
180600 2730N 06615W 9775 00284 0099 233 163 186039 040 038 003 00
180630 2730N 06616W 9771 00288 0098 229 160 186037 038 039 001 03
180700 2731N 06618W 9774 00282 0095 236 160 190036 037 039 002 00
180730 2731N 06620W 9772 00283 0093 235 160 193035 035 038 002 00
180800 2731N 06621W 9766 00289 0092 244 161 204033 034 037 002 00
180830 2731N 06623W 9777 00275 0089 246 163 216032 033 033 005 03
180900 2732N 06624W 9773 00279 0088 249 168 221031 032 037 003 03
180930 2732N 06626W 9774 00278 0086 250 173 225030 031 035 002 03
181000 2733N 06627W 9770 00278 0084 250 178 227027 028 033 003 00
$$
;
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Quoting Tazmanian:
09 or 101 dos 92L have a closed low??? all so dos it have a ch be comeing name be for land fall thing can spin up fast


last I saw, it did not
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looks like sheer over the carib/gom should be dropping big time to favorable conditions over the next 168hrs...
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Quoting Jeff9641:


That is what i said! Man you are a trip! Colin is weak system and looks to remain that way.
No, you said that shear will remain high, which it won't.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
"I think Recon Droped Colin some clothes"



Didn't the recon drop clothes for Colin yesterday? :/
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09 or 101 dos 92L have a closed low??? all so dos it have a ch be comeing name be for land fall thing can spin up fast
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114960
Quoting Jeff9641:


That is what i said! Man you are a trip! Colin is weak system and looks to remain that way.


no you are the trip, seems like you are ignoring what most of us are saying

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


its not affecting Florida, that is why he won't listen


exactly well said
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Read this again no stronger than TS. LOL


wow ok AND?

I think most of us feel the strongest Colin will get is a strong tropical storm
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
About the eighth time someone's told him.


its not affecting Florida, that is why he won't listen
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


read this again

SHEAR
WILL
DROP
TONIGHT!!
About the eighth time someone's told him.
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Quoting Gearsts:
Wasn't it wilma?Tip in the pacific?


Wilma formed because of monsoonal development, like Alex did.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
The convection is much more impressive with former 92L than Colin. Colin just can't seem to escape the shear. Probably gets no stronger than 50 mph during it's life cycle. Area around FL this weekend thru Tuesday looks intriguing and so does ex 92L.
Gut feeling or fact? Check out the models, you'll see that conditions will get favorable by tonight.
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Quoting angiest:


I'll set a baseline. Alicia, minimal cat 3, formed off a front.


Diana was a Category 4 that formed off a trough split. That's the strongest one I could find.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
The convection is much more impressive with former 92L than Colin. Colin just can't seem to escape the shear. Probably gets no stronger than 50 mph during it's life cycle. Area around FL this weekend thru Tuesday looks intriguing and so does ex 92L.


read this again

SHEAR
WILL
DROP
TONIGHT!!
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Off for a bit, but wanted to leave this as a going-away present: this afternoon's big MDR picture:

The Big Picture: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES14452010218ukjcwN.jpg
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Wasn't it wilma?Tip in the pacific?
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Quoting Jeff9641:
The convection is much more impressive with former 92L than Colin. Colin just can't seem to escape the shear. Probably gets no stronger than 50 mph during it's life cycle. Area around FL this weekend thru Tuesday looks intriguing and so does ex 92L.

=|
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Click to enlarge



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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Question: What was the strongest hurricane ever recorded to NOT form from a tropical wave (ie, trough split)?


I'll set a baseline. Alicia, minimal cat 3, formed off a front.
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WOW
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Question: What was the strongest hurricane ever recorded to NOT form from a tropical wave (ie, trough split)? The strongest one I could find was Hurricane Diana in 1984.
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362. IpswichWeatherCenter 2:03 PM EDT on August 06, 2010

They're still far from the circulation.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dos 92L have a closed low ???


Looks like it gained some forward speed in the last couple of frames.

Which means it has less time till the land mass approaches.

RGB
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Quoting Ossqss:
Holiday Inn Express ? LOL



It looks like it's heading in a NNW fashion.
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366. SLU
Quoting Gearsts:
Any here knows what was the tropical system that hit PR in 2007?




Noel, Olga and a "good" brush from Dean.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dos 92L have a closed low ???
no and is not close to getting 1 ether
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levi32, is there anything to the system in the caribbean?
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Holiday Inn Express ? LOL

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URNT15 KNHC 061800
AF306 0304A COLIN HDOB 14 20100806
175030 2706N 06526W 9772 00316 0131 +235 +154 174033 034 034 004 00
175100 2707N 06528W 9773 00313 0130 +235 +155 174033 034 034 003 00
175130 2707N 06529W 9773 00313 0130 +235 +156 174032 033 035 002 00
175200 2708N 06531W 9775 00312 0130 +235 +157 178032 033 036 001 00
175230 2709N 06533W 9772 00314 0130 +235 +158 181030 031 035 003 00
175300 2710N 06534W 9770 00316 0129 +236 +160 181029 031 034 002 00
175330 2711N 06536W 9772 00313 0128 +235 +161 180030 031 034 002 00
175400 2712N 06537W 9770 00314 0127 +235 +162 183029 030 033 002 00
175430 2713N 06539W 9772 00312 0126 +237 +162 187031 032 033 002 00
175500 2713N 06541W 9772 00310 0124 +237 +163 185030 031 033 004 00
175530 2714N 06542W 9771 00310 0123 +238 +165 186031 031 033 003 00
175600 2715N 06544W 9770 00308 0122 +240 +166 185029 031 033 001 00
175630 2716N 06545W 9782 00298 0121 +240 +167 183031 032 035 000 03
175700 2717N 06546W 9768 00310 0120 +240 +168 180032 033 034 003 00
175730 2719N 06547W 9774 00304 0119 +240 +169 183032 033 033 005 00
175800 2720N 06548W 9772 00305 0119 +235 +170 184032 033 034 004 03
175830 2722N 06550W 9771 00306 0118 +234 +169 185031 032 032 005 03
175900 2722N 06551W 9775 00300 0117 +232 +166 187033 034 035 005 00
175930 2722N 06553W 9774 00301 0115 +244 +163 189034 035 035 001 00
180000 2723N 06555W 9773 00300 0113 +241 +162 189032 033 033 003 00
$$
;


1011mb pressure.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dos 92L have a closed low ???


Doesn't look like it. Fairly impressive blowup of convection this afternoon though.
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 17:50Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Colin (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 05

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 17:47Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 27.0N 65.3W
Location: 368 miles (592 km) to the S (185°) from Hamilton, Bermuda (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 180° at 32 knots (From the S at ~ 36.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 14°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Clear
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1013 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 200° at 35 knots (From the SSW at ~ 40.2 mph)

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 35 knots (~ 40.3mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

SE INBOUND
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dos 92L have a closed low ???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114960

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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