Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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One thing is for sure with 92L: It is moving rapidly, 15 to 20 mph towards the Belize coastline.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I thought this was a Tropics Blog. :)

hahaha, good one! :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you want me too take my pants down???


Back to weather?
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493. FloridaHeat 2:48 PM EDT on August 06, 2010

ok thats why i dont like the quote feature. I think they should remove it
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Quoting Snowlover123:


..........
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Quoting Tazmanian:
92L dos have a ch of be comeing a 40kt storm in 72hrs


Yea... a .01% chc. lol.
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499. TGTTX
Quoting homelesswanderer:


This is about the closest I found to the strange track. Not that it goes to TX but that it starts out off east coast then moves into the GOM. Just seems backwards. Lol



For really strange tracks, go back to 2002 and look at Ivan! As memory serves, that was a land-loving storm that just persisted for what seemed like an eternity, and took a tour of the entire Central and Western Atlantic, GOMEX and almost all of the Eastern half of the CONUS!
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Re#485

Thanks Storm--now I finally see it
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Maybe 4 circles in September!


Or 4 Major Hurricanes...
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Quoting sarahjola:
amen to that! i don't mind a small weak storm, but, everything gets scattered in a major hurricane. it's not just property people lose. even if people don't die they still get displaced and some like me realize that we will never get our life back the way it was on aug.28th. my family is all over the place now. we used to be close, but now we never see each other and hardly have the time to talk due to new jobs and longer hours. my daughter still cries about it, and that makes me sad. our new home is nice, but its just don't feel like home. i know this might make some mad, but i want this season to be a bust. i want fish storms. it's better that way. i also wouldn't mind getting something just a bit stronger than bonnie. i think i got a wind gust of 4mph.:)i wouldn't mind some 30 mph. winds and some scattered showers. i am also trying really hard to learn on here what makes these systems form or fall apart, and what to look at to understand steering, and the things that affect steering. i would also love to know some hard facts about the highs and fronts, and troughs, and how they are formed and what steers them. if i could figure all that stuff out i think i could make my own educated opinion and not worry about what i hear. i get freaked out when i think something can get into the gulf and i would like to end the stress:)


I understand completely. Storm in his blog and post answering a question to someone explained about the the fronts and troughs pretty good. At least what makes them what/where they are. Hope it helps you. :)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Looks like things are heating up again...



Back to multiple circles.... wondering if we'll have 3 AOIs and a TC again this season.... lol....


Maybe 4 circles in September!
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Quoting will45:


does it take you to your blog?


it did but i typed in the name i wanted to ignore i just ignorantly assumed ignoring someone would work in the quote sections as well
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492. beell
Quoting StormW:
92L

img src="Photobucket


That looks dead-on, StormW
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Quoting Tazmanian:
92L mode runs


Might have a chance if it gains enough latitude to make it into the BOC.
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490. SLU
Quoting Tazmanian:



is 92L back?


Sounds like someone's been caught with his pants down.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
92L mode runs




Weird
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Looks like things are heating up again...



Back to multiple circles.... wondering if we'll have 3 AOIs and a TC again this season.... lol....
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i love you too
Ummmmm....errrrrrrr.....uhhhhhhhhhh.......ok????????
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483. xcool
old news
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes JFV, it's flat. Everyone, you know the drill!


I'm not JFV.. so lets not

Thanks
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Quoting StormChaser81:


You can only ignore there post, if somebody comments on there post, you will still see them.


that makes the ignore user feature almost worthless
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478. SLU
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.0N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 34.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 14.1N LONM24 = 31.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i love you too


..........
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475. huber
Will the ULL in the western GOM affect the direction of 92L at all?
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Quoting Snowlover123:


92L doesn't have a COC. It's an open wave right now.
Well the "center" is the vort max which is just off the coast.

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Quoting mydiapersarefull:
swell to hit 4' at 12 seconds tomorrow morning...that's better than nothing.


Where are you surfing at?? Its flat ,in SFL but what else is new. :)
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471. FLHL2
This is what Bastardi was talking about....



Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
119 PM EDT Friday Aug 6 2010


Long term (sunday night through friday)...European model (ecmwf) and GFS remain
in agreement about bringing a TUTT low across the state through
Wednesday. Main difference is the position and the moisture return. GFS
pushes this upper level feature westward through Georgia and Alabama and
European model (ecmwf) brings it through the Central Peninsula. At the surface...
both models develop somewhat of a surface low. European model (ecmwf) is showing a
closed 1010 low forming over Tampa Bay while the GFS develops an
open wave across the eastern Gulf. Because of the relatively
uncertainty of these features and the difficultly the models
currently are having with this system...took a modest blend of the
the European model (ecmwf) and GFS on Monday and Tuesday. Therefore...with tropical
moisture significantly increasing by the start of the period and
with westerly flow in place...bumped up probability of precipitation to 60 across the
board on Monday. Will maintain the scattered probability of precipitation through Wednesday...but
may have increase if the models remain consistent. After this
system moves well west of the state...the surface ridge axis
builds back over the area with ridging building in aloft. Will
maintain the scattered probability of precipitation in the 30 to 40 percent range through
the end of the period.
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Quoting FLHL2:


ECMWF OOZ run picked up on the vorticity of this. Interesting. It shows it making a southward circle, crossing central Florida, then into the gulf and back out through the Carolinas. One big loop de loop. Shows this impacting Florida Sun/Mon


This is about the closest I found to the strange track. Not that it goes to TX but that it starts out off east coast then moves into the GOM. Just seems backwards. Lol

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469. xcool
16.5 84.6
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting stormpetrol:
I'm no expert , but I think the center for 92L is further E than labelled, I still say around 16.8N/82.3W, anyway time will tell thats for sure.


The low level circulation looks to be getting close to 85 west hugging the coast.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I'm no expert , but I think the center for 92L is further E than labelled, I still say around 16.8N/82.3W, anyway time will tell thats for sure.


92L doesn't have a COC. It's an open wave right now.
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I'm no expert , but I think the center for 92L is further E than labelled, I still say around 16.8N/82.3W, anyway time will tell thats for sure.
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464. SLU
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 27.9N LONCUR = 66.9W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 26.4N LONM12 = 67.3W DIRM12 = 340DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 24.4N LONM24 = 65.8W
WNDCUR = 40KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 40KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 90NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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Quoting Gearsts:
Las altas temperaturas que se esperaban para el día de hoy han comenzado a disiparse gracias a un cambio en la dirección del viento más temprano de lo que se esperaba.

Aunque en horas de la mañana se registró una temperatura de 92 grados Fahrenheit en el área de San Juan, a mediodía la temperatura había bajado a 89 grados, indicó la meteoróloga del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología (SNM), Odalys Martínez.Im burning :O


Translation to English:

The high temperatures were expected today have begun to dissipate due to a change in wind direction earlier than expected.

Although the morning was recorded a temperature of 92 degrees Fahrenheit in the area of San Juan, at noon the temperature had dropped to 89 degrees, said meteorologist National Weather Service (NWS), Odalys Martínez.Im burning: O


Thank you Google Translate.
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
i keep hitting ignore user for one person but they keep showing up in the comments anyway what am i doing wrong


You can only ignore there post, if somebody comments on there post, you will still see them.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FloridaHeat:
i keep hitting ignore user for one person but they keep showing up in the comments anyway what am i doing wrong


does it take you to your blog?
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swell to hit 4' at 12 seconds tomorrow morning...that's better than nothing.
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Quoting StormW:


Still the same...the "apparent" circulation center, which matches up with the 850mb vorticity, is just north of the coastline.

It's possible it could have a chance, if it gains latitude if it makes it to the BOC.


Yeah, It looks as if the actual low level circulation is just north of the coast down around 16 degees North.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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