Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BahaHurican:
It's not just that; if there was some uncertainty about intensity, we'd still be blogging hard. When that '06 storm, the B one, IIRC was heading up towards Bermuda, there was fierce discussion about variations in track and intensity because pple weren't sure how bad it would get in Bermuda...


BAHA~ Hey, I remember the conversations on that one, I can't remember the name but alot of folks where worried about the folks over there.
Sheri
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You know conditions are favorable in the upper levels when you have outflow fanning out in all four quadrants.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting GetReal:


What is this?...please.
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Quoting bwi:
Winds gradually went calm last hour at 17n 81.5w. Weird.
Conditions at 42057 as of
(3:50 pm EDT)
1950 GMT on 08/06/2010:
Wind Speed (WSPD): 0.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 1.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.1 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1011.8 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.8 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.1 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.0 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 24.8 °C
Heat Index (HEAT): 30.7 °C
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
3:50 pm ESE ( 106 deg ) 0.4 m/s
3:40 pm S ( 177 deg ) 0.7 m/s
3:30 pm S ( 176 deg ) 1.6 m/s
3:20 pm SSW ( 193 deg ) 2.6 m/s
3:10 pm S ( 189 deg ) 3.6 m/s
3:00 pm S ( 178 deg ) 4.0 m/s


See my post below; same observation......
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Quoting bwi:
Winds gradually went calm last hour at 17n 81.5w. Weird.
Conditions at 42057 as of
(3:50 pm EDT)
1950 GMT on 08/06/2010:
Wind Speed (WSPD): 0.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 1.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.1 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1011.8 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.8 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.1 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.0 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 24.8 °C
Heat Index (HEAT): 30.7 °C
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
3:50 pm ESE ( 106 deg ) 0.4 m/s
3:40 pm S ( 177 deg ) 0.7 m/s
3:30 pm S ( 176 deg ) 1.6 m/s
3:20 pm SSW ( 193 deg ) 2.6 m/s
3:10 pm S ( 189 deg ) 3.6 m/s
3:00 pm S ( 178 deg ) 4.0 m/s
think the center of 92L is reforming at 17.5N and 82.5w. Watch the convection band to the north and the convection band to the south of those coordinates and see how the energy shoots from both of them and meets in the middle showing what looks like vorticity in the AVN loop from NOAA. I am an amateur so if any professionals would care to address this it would be much appreciated. Thank you and everybody have a wonderful day. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html
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Check out this extreme weather:

Link
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Quoting StormChaser81:


Probably doing what Colin is doing and pulling it under the strongest storms.


I'm not saying this will be a hurricane or anything, but was just wondering can it make it between the Yucatan peninsula and cuba and come in to the GOM or is there to much out there to stop it? I am just trying to understand if it can do that and then can it do anything after that?
Sheri
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Quoting asgolfr999:


That's because it's not going in a Floridian direction
It's not just that; if there was some uncertainty about intensity, we'd still be blogging hard. When that '06 storm, the B one, IIRC was heading up towards Bermuda, there was fierce discussion about variations in track and intensity because pple weren't sure how bad it would get in Bermuda...

EDIT: it was FLORENCE. Kewl storm to track...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting Squid28:
The real acid test will be if 92l can maintain convection overnight, as up to now it seems to diminishing when it should have been increasing over the last couple days. (during diurnal cycles)


With extremely warm waters underneath it, might not have a problem fueling itself.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I'm starting to lean towards a center redevelopment around 83W-84W and 17N. I think the mass of convection is the cause.
I think so too, if the convection can release enough latent heat either a new center will form or the current one relocates further northward.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
649. bwi
Winds gradually went calm last hour at 17n 81.5w. Weird.
Conditions at 42057 as of
(3:50 pm EDT)
1950 GMT on 08/06/2010:
Wind Speed (WSPD): 0.0 m/s
Wind Gust (GST): 1.0 m/s
Wave Height (WVHT): 1.1 m
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 5 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1011.8 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.8 mb ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 27.1 °C
Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.0 °C
Dew Point (DEWP): 24.8 °C
Heat Index (HEAT): 30.7 °C
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
3:50 pm ESE ( 106 deg ) 0.4 m/s
3:40 pm S ( 177 deg ) 0.7 m/s
3:30 pm S ( 176 deg ) 1.6 m/s
3:20 pm SSW ( 193 deg ) 2.6 m/s
3:10 pm S ( 189 deg ) 3.6 m/s
3:00 pm S ( 178 deg ) 4.0 m/s
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... also according to Wiki, 1986 was a doozy of a year in several ways...

A total of 32 tropical depressions formed in 1986 in the Western Pacific over an eleven month time span. Of the 32, 30 became tropical storms, 19 storms reached typhoon intensity, and 3 reached super typhoon strength.

This was Supertyphoon Tip's year.... conditions in the WPac must have been splendiferous.... lol


Tip was 1979.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thanks hadn't heard that one. Added it to my collection. Here's the saddest hurricane song I ever heard. :( Link


Hi Homeless.....you got mail
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Quoting MississippiWx:
92L's image continues to improve and is rapidly organizing. Shear is almost nothing due to an upper level high positioned directly over the system. The only impediment is the Yucatan, but if it can gain latitude, it might have a chance at depression to weak TS status before landfall. There is currently a weakness in the ridge across the Eastern Gulf, so it might try to gain a little latitude over the next few hours.

If it can stay over water for another 18-24 hours it may have a shot to develop into a cyclone. Interestingly enough it is vertically stacked through 500mb down to 925mb. However, the circulation is on the coast of Honduras so if it can make some northward progress chances go up for development. One thing propelling this is not only favorable upper level winds but SSTs are at 30-31C.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
i think the center is re forming in 92L under the havey t-storms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Hmmm.... also according to Wiki, 1986 was a doozy of a year in several ways...

A total of 32 tropical depressions formed in 1986 in the Western Pacific over an eleven month time span. Of the 32, 30 became tropical storms, 19 storms reached typhoon intensity, and 3 reached super typhoon strength.

.... conditions in the WPac must have been splendiferous.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
The real acid test will be if 92l can maintain convection overnight, as up to now it seems to diminishing when it should have been increasing over the last couple days. (during diurnal cycles)
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Can someone answer a question for me:

I see 92L, and when I look at it on the floaters (especially visible on water vapor here) I see what looks like good outflow on the North and South. This makes me think the storm is strengthening, but quite often, it turns out to be nothing. Sometimes, like now, I'm also fooled by persistent convection far from the center.

Am I just being confused by the high level flow? Also, am I being fooled by low level convergence? What causes that stronger convection far from the center?

Thank You in Advance!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


I'm starting to lean towards a center redevelopment around 83W-84W and 17N. I think the mass of convection is the cause.


Probably doing what Colin is doing and pulling it under the strongest storms.
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Winds have died down considerably since this am (gusting to 17 knots in the am) but pressure is falling at this time as opposed to rising this morning in the vicinity of 92L:

Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 6 Aug 2010 19:50:00 UTC

Winds: at 0.0 kt gusting to 1.9 ktSignificant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 5 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and fallingAir Temperature: 80.8 F
Dew Point: 76.6 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F

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Notice the direction low level vorticity moved from 1500 to 1800.


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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Wayne wins! Lol. Wow. Can't see where it started or ended. :)

Wayne even had a bit of the Fujiwara going on with TC Vera, according to Wiki, as "the cyclone began to rotate around the circulation of Vera to its north. Tropical Depression Wayne sped up to the northeast, but when Vera moved far enough away, Wayne drifted northeastward through the South China Sea"....

What a hoot! lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting StormChaser81:


Almost looks like a North West movement right now.


I'm starting to lean towards a center redevelopment around 83W-84W and 17N. I think the mass of convection is the cause.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
92L's image continues to improve and is rapidly organizing. Shear is almost nothing due to an upper level high positioned directly over the system. The only impediment is the Yucatan, but if it can gain latitude, it might have a chance at depression to weak TS status before landfall. There is currently a weakness in the ridge across the Eastern Gulf, so it might try to gain a little latitude over the next few hours.



Almost looks like a North West movement right now.
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92L's image continues to improve and is rapidly organizing. Shear is almost nothing due to an upper level high positioned directly over the system. The only impediment is the Yucatan, but if it can gain latitude, it might have a chance at depression to weak TS status before landfall. There is currently a weakness in the ridge across the Eastern Gulf, so it might try to gain a little latitude over the next few hours.

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Quoting floridastorm:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WpdQE61eRY
Best Hurricane/Weather song I ever heard


Thanks hadn't heard that one. Added it to my collection. Here's the saddest hurricane song I ever heard. :( Link
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Can't imagine what a storm track like that would be, these days. It just wanted to hit everything, particularly Puerto Rico.

Only a year after it became under the United States' control.
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Quoting centex:
Impressive convection on 92L as compared to poor Colin.





92L is over serious fuel. 87-89 degree waters or higher in smaller patches on the surface.

The warm waters are also at great depths in the area where 92L is located.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Maybe 4 circles in September!
lol... I as thinkin' more like 3 TCs and a yellow circle... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22687
Quoting 7544:
92l reminds u of wilma where its at now lol


Except Wilma was a beast with 140mph winds and a 100 mile wide eye.
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Quoting 7544:
92l reminds u of wilma where its at now lol


Wilma was already a minimal hurricane in the location of 92L.
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Impressive convection on 92L as compared to poor Colin.



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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Wow. I bet Colin feels ignored right now. The blog seems to be focused on anything but him at the moment.


That's because it's not going in a Floridian direction
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I think the center of 92L is reforming at 17.5N and 82.5w. Watch the convection band to the north and the convection band to the south of those coordinates and see how the energy shoots from both of them and meets in the middle showing what looks like vorticity in the AVN loop from NOAA. I am an amateur so if any professionals would care to address this it would be much appreciated. Thank you and everybody have a wonderful day. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html
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620. 7544
92l reminds u of wilma where its at now lol
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Blog's pretty slow now. BBL
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Quoting 7544:
colin just will not give in wouldnt we be surpised if he decides to do aloop lol
Colin = Victorious!
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617. 7544
Quoting Jeff9641:
We may have a spurious low develope off NE FL or NE Gulf. Bottomline is lots of rain for FL.


does that include so fla ? or will they be dry
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Wow. I bet Colin feels ignored right now. The blog seems to be focused on anything but him at the moment.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Those are in mph.


Thanks. :)
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614. bwi
Winds turning more southerly south of GCM too. Curiouser. Here's the buoy at 17n 81.5w

Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
2:50 pm SSE ( 157 deg ) 4.2 m/s
2:40 pm SE ( 130 deg ) 4.3 m/s
2:30 pm SE ( 126 deg ) 4.2 m/s
2:20 pm SE ( 124 deg ) 3.9 m/s
2:10 pm ESE ( 116 deg ) 4.9 m/s
2:00 pm ESE ( 119 deg ) 5.1 m/s
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613. 7544
colin just will not give in wouldnt we be surpised if he decides to do aloop lol
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Wayne wins! Lol. Wow. Can't see where it started or ended. :)


LOL It's Dizzying.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WpdQE61eRY
Best Hurricane/Weather song I ever heard
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Quoting Cotillion:
When it comes to tracks, you don't get much more strange than Typhoon Wayne in 1986.


Wayne wins! Lol. Wow. Can't see where it started or ended. :)

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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