Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MississippiWx:


The upper level low to the west of 92L shouldn't have too much impact on movement, should it? I've always been under the impression that upper lows do not impact movement.


If it's only a 200mb low, then no not usually. If it extends down to 500mb then it can impact movement.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Any spin seen on satellite imagery is all mid-level near 500mb. The 850-700mb vort maxes are both along the northern coast of Honduras and it will take a lot more time than this has over water to stack them and develop the system. It simply will run out of time.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
Quoting Levi32:


Keep in mind its daily 2mb diurnal swing is just now heading down towards its minimum and the overall pressure trend is not that impressive...pretty flat.





The upper level low to the west of 92L shouldn't have too much impact on movement, should it? I've always been under the impression that upper lows do not impact movement.
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the center of 92L have in fac refrom



you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow

you can see the tight turning

Link



09 what you think ???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Station 42057 is reporting 1011 mb and falling not to far away from where 92L might be reforming.


Keep in mind its daily 2mb diurnal swing is just now heading down towards its minimum and the overall pressure trend is not that impressive...pretty flat.



Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652
5:00 PM AST Fri Aug 6
Location: 28.3°N 66.8°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Look at the visible loop of 92L around 17.2N/82.5W, I think thats where its all coming together, this could organize rapidly imo.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Station 42057 is reporting 1011 mb and falling not to far away from where 92L might be reforming.


only 1.9 wind gusts at that buoy also
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
I think 92L is at 17N and 87W near the recent blow up of convection.
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Heavier Convection coming into range on Bermuda Radar now.

Bermuda Radar
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803

WTNT34 KNHC 062032

TCPAT4

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM COLIN ADVISORY NUMBER 12

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010

500 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010



...COLIN LOSES SOME ORGANIZATION AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...





SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.3N 66.8W

ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSW OF BERMUDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...



NONE.



SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BERMUDA



A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.



FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.





DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.8 WEST. COLIN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR

OVER BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT COLIN HAS BECOME A LITTLE

LESS ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT.

SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.



TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM

MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.



THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER

BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.



STORM SURGE...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE COASTAL FLOODING AND

LARGE AND BATTERING WAVES IN BERMUDA...PARTICULARLY ALONG

SOUTH-FACING BEACHES.



RAINFALL...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS

OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IN BERMUDA.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54315


Some signs of the beginning of banding features with 92L... Look over NE Honduras, and the SW side of 92L, near Roatan Island, and on the north side of the system.
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Oh ok so other wise if it's a small storm going over land it doesn't hurt it as bad as if it was a big storm. Have i got that right? I appreciate you answering my question I am still learning things and I really try to figure it out my self but sometimes I get stumped.
Sheri


Sounds like you have it. =)

Takes awhile to learn the ropes with such complex systems like tropical systems.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
92L looks pretty darn good for a 10% system lol.

lol
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694. xcool
92L try development & slows down to
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Quoting iahishome:
Thanks StormChaser... I guess that really was outflow as others have started seeing it. Next Question, what causes a storm's center to reform? Many people that I respect have identified the center position as very far south and near the coast. In that position, even the northern most models take it barely into the BOC and ashore in Southern Mexico. This would of course be ideal, preventing it from strengthening.

I think we're all watching it to see if it has any shot of getting more time over water, and moving into a position where it could be grabbed by the trough, and end up being a TX/LA event. Of course we hope it doesn't, but is this a slight possibility?

It appears to me that it's not really possible unless the center re-forms North of 17N and East of 83W. Thoughts?


The center has possibly already moved away from the coast and under the heavy convection.

Dont think its reforming. Just relocated to a better position.

I dont know a lot about reforming centers, you might want to ask Levi or a more skilled person in that aspect of tropical formation.
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92L looks pretty darn good for a 10% system lol.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


Hi Homeless.....you got mail


Hy Tex. You got mail> :)

Thanks CaicosRetiredSailor for the answer and the link. :)

Yeah Baha, I noticed that was one wild busy season over there in 86. Glad to know there was at least some explanation of Wayne's crazy track. Those steering currents would make a typhoon seasick. Lol.

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689. bwi
The convection associated with 92l has been cycling up and down for days now, since it was a blob east of Trinidad, I think. All through the Caribbean, it's been on and off. So maybe that's what happens tonight. On the other hand, if that area around 17n 83w keeps firing this evening, I wonder if they'll consider sending in an aircraft to see what's going on, given the conditions.
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Station 42057 is reporting 1011 mb and falling not to far away from where 92L might be reforming.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
INV/93/L
MARK
16.30N/36.02W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54315
Near real-time Aqua Terra satellite images of 92L.



Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actually the convection is trying to suck up the circulation.


doesnt look that way to me on the floater
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting StormChaser81:


It's most likely going to go over the Yucatan and then exit into the GOM. Actually not strengthening would be better, when considering crossing land. Less of a circulation to disrupt while going over land.


Oh ok so other wise if it's a small storm going over land it doesn't hurt it as bad as if it was a big storm. Have i got that right? I appreciate you answering my question I am still learning things and I really try to figure it out my self but sometimes I get stumped.
Sheri
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92L is starting to get the comma look to it.
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Thanks StormChaser... I guess that really was outflow as others have started seeing it. Next Question, what causes a storm's center to reform? Many people that I respect have identified the center position as very far south and near the coast. In that position, even the northern most models take it barely into the BOC and ashore in Southern Mexico. This would of course be ideal, preventing it from strengthening.

I think we're all watching it to see if it has any shot of getting more time over water, and moving into a position where it could be grabbed by the trough, and end up being a TX/LA event. Of course we hope it doesn't, but is this a slight possibility?

It appears to me that it's not really possible unless the center re-forms North of 17N and East of 83W. Thoughts?
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04L/TS/C
MARK
27.98N/66.73W
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Quoting will45:


its trying to suck that convection back to the center
Actually the convection is trying to suck up the circulation.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Tazmanian:
09 could the center of 92L be reforming?


its trying to suck that convection back to the center
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting cheaterwon:
think the center of 92L is reforming at 17.5N and 82.5w. Watch the convection band to the north and the convection band to the south of those coordinates and see how the energy shoots from both of them and meets in the middle showing what looks like vorticity in the AVN loop from NOAA. I am an amateur so if any professionals would care to address this it would be much appreciated. Thank you and everybody have a wonderful day. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html
i agree. i was seeing this earlier.
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92L really exploded during the day. If 92L was stationary or moving slowly mexico would be in trouble.
That area of the Caribbean is famous for fast developing systems.
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Looking at the AVN color imagery loop it appears that the main cluster of energy for 92L has shifted to around 17.5N up from 16N. I wouldn't be surprised to see a new center coalesce there.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
09 could the center of 92L be reforming?
It might be relocating further north, don't think it is reforming at this point.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I'm not saying this will be a hurricane or anything, but was just wondering can it make it between the Yucatan peninsula and cuba and come in to the GOM or is there to much out there to stop it? I am just trying to understand if it can do that and then can it do anything after that?
Sheri


It's most likely going to go over the Yucatan and then exit into the GOM. Actually not strengthening would be better, when considering crossing land. Less of a circulation to disrupt while going over land.
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Uh oh! We are out of floaters, we have Colin, 92L, 93L, and oil spill floaters. If we need another floater I assume that they will remove the oil spill floater.
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09 could the center of 92L be reforming?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
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INV/92/L
MARK
16.79N/83.47W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54315


The steering in the area of 92L has gotten a little more interesting IMO... It looks like it could possibly move more WNW, at a slower pace, and even possibly stall near, or over the Yucatan... That could lead to it eventually drifting NW into GOM...
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:
WWB~When it says
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1011.8 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.8 mb ( Falling )
does this mean pressures are falling, i'm not trying to sound stupid i am just wondering if it means it's trying to get it's act together. Just a little help.
sheri
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If the current organization trend continues with 92L I reckon we may see orange or red at 8PM EDT. The key is that it keeps its deep convection.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
665. 7544
just for the record i think i have this right so far this year bonnie colin and now 92 l joins the list of systems that have been droped or faded and came back strong . wierd season so far imo

so if you see a system get droped you just might see it come back even stronger so this year think twice before saying rip lol
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Quoting Cotillion:


Tip was 1979.
U r right; different, weaker Tip....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22307
Quoting iahishome:
Can someone answer a question for me:

I see 92L, and when I look at it on the floaters (especially visible on water vapor here) I see what looks like good outflow on the North and South. This makes me think the storm is strengthening, but quite often, it turns out to be nothing. Sometimes, like now, I'm also fooled by persistent convection far from the center.

Am I just being confused by the high level flow? Also, am I being fooled by low level convergence? What causes that stronger convection far from the center?

Thank You in Advance!


The storm itself causes lots of unstable air to form around it. Also moisture being pulled into the storm.
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Weatherwannabe~ I hope I spelled it right.When it says
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1011.8 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.8 mb ( Falling )
does this mean pressures are falling, i'm not trying to sound stupid i am just wondering if it means it's trying to get it's act together. Just a little help.
sheri
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You know conditions are favorable in the upper levels when you have outflow fanning out in all four quadrants.



Both 92L and 93L have anti-cyclones.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24164
Quoting homelesswanderer:


... Wonder which letter storm has been retired most? Have to save that hunt for another day. :)





Number of retired names by starting letter:

A-7
B-3
C-9
D-7
E-3
F-8
G-4
H-5
I-7
J-4
K-3
L-3
M-3
N-1
O-1
P-1
R-2
S-1
W-1


From:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/retirednames.shtml



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Quoting BahaHurican:
It's not just that; if there was some uncertainty about intensity, we'd still be blogging hard. When that '06 storm, the B one, IIRC was heading up towards Bermuda, there was fierce discussion about variations in track and intensity because pple weren't sure how bad it would get in Bermuda...


BAHA~ Hey, I remember the conversations on that one, I can't remember the name but alot of folks where worried about the folks over there.
Sheri
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.