Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 759 - 709

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

Quoting BigTuna:

Can anyone recommend a learning site that's a little more advanced than the JetStream site? I'd be especially interested in gaining a better understanding of the many different maps and charts that are posted here daily.


AHA...
I found it on Storms list of links

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

StormW has posted a resource for reading which I found useful which I thought I had bookmarked, but I don't see it. If you don't get a good recommendation here, you could try posting that question on Storm's blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog


Ike closes in on Galveston

Posted by: JeffMasters, 4:12 PM CDT on September 12, 2008


I had never gone back and thought to look at that. When the good doctor wrote that we were already without power and running around like a bunch of chickens without heads...

Ahhh memories..... that I would prefer to forget
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe all 500mb....but if this persists....hmmmmm

Quoting Patrap:
92L

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BigTuna:

Can anyone recommend a learning site that's a little more advanced than the JetStream site? I'd be especially interested in gaining a better understanding of the many different maps and charts that are posted here daily.
A lot of the sites that publish wx imagery / charts / data provide guidelines explaining their use. This is prolly the best way to learn about reading models, etc. The Navy also has a pretty extensive and sophisticated online manual to tropical cyclones. I've got a few links in my Faves; I'll look up what I have and post anything other pple haven't already given u...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Levi is absolutely correct, 92L is all mid-levels at the moment.



but slowy working its way down


in the new ceter
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
92L

Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
752. xcool
opps capslock
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi is absolutely correct, 92L is all mid-levels at the moment.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
750. xcool
Goldenblack .THANKS .LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great profile pic xcool...lol, kinda like our tropical season in the past couple of days.

Quoting xcool:
floater now on 93L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
748. xcool
floater now on 93L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thinking that 92 and 93L could become Danielle and Earl, that's give us 3 named storms in a matter of 10 ish days.

I saw for August 20- something, the GFS had a pretty monster hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic. It's long long away but just a sign of an increase of activity...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting all4hurricanes:
How much time does 92L have until landfall? it could pull an Humberto



hi with the center refroming a round 18N it would put 92L more time overe water
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Well, something is afoot. Where I agree with Levi and MH09 as well. I do say that the weakening of the steering currents, combined with the persistent convection can make 92L a candidate for center reformation under the most intense convection for 92L. I have noticed the SW flow occurring at the surface throughout most of FL. now, indicating the long awaited trough. Look out if 92L feels that

Quoting Tazmanian:



but do you think the center has in fac refrom???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:




it has


look at my post be low


the center of 92L have in fac refrom



you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow

you can see the tight turning

Link
I usually agree with what Levi has to say but after seeing the energy from the north and south converge right there at 17.5N and 82.5 west. I am inclined to think the center has reformed there or is in the process of doing so rapidly now. and is barley moving just west of north. I still have a hard time not listening to Levi because he usually turns out to be right. What is your thoughts on it Storm and HM09.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi-

Have you noticed how the 850mb and 700mb vort has moved NNW most of the day and appears to be attempting a realignment with the 500mb vort?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How much time does 92L have until landfall? it could pull an Humberto
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good Afternoon...

The NHC seems to have basically aced the track of Alex Bonnie and Collin so far, no major changes like Ivan of 2004.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
92L couldn't ask for a better anticyclone.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting sarahjola:
hi Miami- i asked you a question on your blog earlier, and was wondering if you could answer it if you have the time. it would be very appreciated as i value your input. thanks in advance:)
It was answered.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting zoomiami:
Had this conversation the other day about the posts in the blog during certain periods. The biggest time for posting is during formation, if you look back at almost any storm, after we know where its going, and basically what the intensity is going to be, the blog gets real quiet.

And that even works for Florida storms...
Very true. I think a lot blog activity is driven by the cyclogenesis possibilties. Only real exception to that is a scenario where there is unexpected strengthening or radical shift in direction of movement [which we haven't seen so much since 05, to be frank]. Landfall posting usually picks up the blog pace, but that depends more on location, i.e. posts tend to increase if landfall is imminent in areas where lots of bloggers reside.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting StormChaser81:


Sounds like you have it. =)

Takes awhile to learn the ropes with such complex systems like tropical systems.

Can anyone recommend a learning site that's a little more advanced than the JetStream site? I'd be especially interested in gaining a better understanding of the many different maps and charts that are posted here daily.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
looks like Colin is having probs with its center also
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting GetReal:
Taz I have to agree with Levi that the spin you are observing is in the mid-levels. That doesn't mean that it wii not work down to the surface tonight. I think there there is a good chance it may eventually become the surface center.



but do you think the center has in fac refrom???
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Quoting iahishome:
Thanks Levi,

I think many of us are watching and waiting and as we get nervous, we start to make more of the threat areas. So you don't think 92L has any shot of forming and getting far enough North to be a hurricane in the GOM a few days out?


To come far enough north to be a threat in the gulf it would have had to develop a couple days ago and be a strengthening tropical cyclone right now. I can't give it zero chance because of the nice cloud signature, but I think it's highly unlikely we see anything out of it before it runs into central America.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hummmmmmm...Looks vertically stacked albeit weak at the 500mb level on the CIMSS PREDICT page that updates hourly.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah I messed up typing it, fixed now.
hi Miami- i asked you a question on your blog earlier, and was wondering if you could answer it if you have the time. it would be very appreciated as i value your input. thanks in advance:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taz I have to agree with Levi that the spin you are observing is in the mid-levels. That doesn't mean that it wii not work down to the surface tonight. I think there there is a good chance it may eventually become the surface center.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
728. xcool
93L slowly organizing hmm maybe two named
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:


Didn't it end up just brushing by? I remember the intensity as it was moving up, and then it skirted the island.
Yeah. I think Florence was in some ways the most exciting thing that happened that year.... '06 was really anticlimatic after '05, even though there were some pretty decent storms [cat 3/4] that year...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Thanks Levi,

I think many of us are watching and waiting and as we get nervous, we start to make more of the threat areas. So you don't think 92L has any shot of forming and getting far enough North to be a hurricane in the GOM a few days out?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
Look at the visible loop of 92L around 17.2N/82.5W, I think thats where its all coming together, this could organize rapidly imo.


If the system in fact develops a CoC around there--17.2/82.5--it most likely will have a chance to become something before rolling up onto the Mexican sands. OTOH, if the center stays way to the southwest where the experts have it pegged for the moment, it won't have nearly enough time to do much of anything. Either way, though, it will have the chance to feast on an area of water with very high TCHP. Interesting, to be sure...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


850mb and 700mb yes but not 500mb which extends north into the area of spinning on satellite imagery, suggesting that it is mid-level.

Yeah I messed up typing it, fixed now.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Levi32:


850mb and 700mb yes but not 500mb which extends north into the area of spinning on satellite imagery, suggesting that it is mid-level.






the maps has not been update yet the the center has refrom


the center of 92L have in fac refrom



you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow

you can see the tight turning

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Quoting Levi32:
Any spin seen on satellite imagery is all mid-level near 500mb. The 850-700mb vort maxes are both along the northern coast of Honduras and it will take a lot more time than this has over water to stack them and develop the system. It simply will run out of time.
This has been NHC's take on 92L pretty much all along, imo. Not that they didn't think it had potential, but that it wasn't going to have enough time before hitting CA to fully develop that potential. I'm thinking if it lasts the CA crossing, we may see something of it, even if only a TD, shortly after the crossing.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting GetReal:


We may very well see 92L apply the brakes this evening... The steering in the NW Caribbean has weakened, and it should progress slowly towards WNW... It will be very interesting indeed, if a well defined LLC forms underneath the heavier convection tonight.




it has


look at my post be low


the center of 92L have in fac refrom



you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow

you can see the tight turning

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks vertically stacked to me on CIMSS vorticity product through 500mb.


850mb and 700mb yes but not 500mb which extends north into the area of spinning on satellite imagery, suggesting that it is mid-level.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Had this conversation the other day about the posts in the blog during certain periods. The biggest time for posting is during formation, if you look back at almost any storm, after we know where its going, and basically what the intensity is going to be, the blog gets real quiet.

And that even works for Florida storms...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
Quoting Tazmanian:



no


see my post be low


the center of 92L have in fac refrom



you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow

you can see the tight turning

Link


Mid-level.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


We may very well see 92L apply the brakes this evening... The steering in the NW Caribbean has weakened, and it should progress slowly towards WNW... It will be very interesting indeed, if a well defined LLC forms underneath the heavier convection tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Any spin seen on satellite imagery is all mid-level near 500mb. The 850-700mb vort maxes are both along the northern coast of Honduras and it will take a lot more time than this has over water to stack them and develop the system. It simply will run out of time.
Looks vertically stacked to me on CIMSS vorticity product through 700mb.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Levi32:
Any spin seen on satellite imagery is all mid-level near 500mb. The 850-700mb vort maxes are both along the northern coast of Honduras and it will take a lot more time than this has over water to stack them and develop the system. It simply will run out of time.



no


see my post be low


the center of 92L have in fac refrom



you can see that vary well here its all so moveing due N vary slow

you can see the tight turning

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Wonder if roatangardener is following the main blog this season....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20734
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


BAHA~ Hey, I remember the conversations on that one, I can't remember the name but alot of folks where worried about the folks over there.
Sheri


Didn't it end up just brushing by? I remember the intensity as it was moving up, and then it skirted the island.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4136
the models were calling for 92l developing right about where it is now a few days back. maybe the models were right. it is really weird how the models said right there it develops, and here it is doing just that.at least it looks to be trying to develop:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
latest modeLes are moving move to the west here.. one model got this STORM WEST.... EVERY TIME I WATCH THE MODELS ON HERE THERE KEEP GOING SOUTH.
IT appears to be a huge storm in the making, and it seems that it would move more to the west, not sure it will be a fish yet, as previews models were suggesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


The upper level low to the west of 92L shouldn't have too much impact on movement, should it? I've always been under the impression that upper lows do not impact movement.


If it's only a 200mb low, then no not usually. If it extends down to 500mb then it can impact movement.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 759 - 709

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.