Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Looking at trends - if you look at the archives for the busier years, there are more than a few storms that head into the northern atlantic, along with the other storms that head where people live.

I think that these storms show a more activity in the season generally.

The slower years tend not to have CV storms that have curved into the north Atlantic.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


You should rephrase that to say "No surface oil sighted". The several million gallons of dispersants BP pumped into the deep waters did their job very well, that job being to keep the oil from coming to the top where it could be counted; now those millions of gallons of dispersants--along with tens of millions of gallons of uncollectred, unevaporated oil--are dispersing through the Gulf unseen. And so far as I know, all edible Gulf seafood lives and breathes not at the surface, but down among the dispersant-and oil-tainted waters.

Nah, much as I love Gulf shrimp, fish, and oysters, it'll be a long time before I dive into a plate of 'em. Pity...
Didn't say no oil in the gulf, said no oil sighted in Choctaw Bay, surface or otherwise. It's a shame you feel that way. You're costing people their livelyhood. The limited product being delivered is tested beyond code and IS SAFE. You're not helping with speculation, and ONLY speculation, that something may be amiss...
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Quoting hurricane556:
93L is becoming better organized. could become depression today.


I agree, if it continues to organize and perhaps if convection increases a bit more.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234

ate some baked red fish the other day I caught good stuff their.
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I'm on my iPhone so I can't see read the models very well. Are there 2 that have 93 taking a dive south then west or is it just one? Which one(s)? Thanks!
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Cybertedday -- I want to know where you will be spending hurricane season, as that seems to be the place not to be.

Morning to all that I missed.

I was looking at nogaps on 93l yesterday -- wondering why it was completely different than the others. Perhaps it caught something that is catching on.
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The tropical wave SE of 93L is interesting as well. Models don't really develop anything out of it from what I can tell, but still worth watching.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
93L is becoming better organized. could become depression today.
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Although 93L's convection isn't very intense, it appears to have become better organized.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Oil report: the floatilla just came thru Choctaw Bay, no oil sited. BUY GULF COAST SEAFOOD, it's safe and as good as ever. It's hot, muggy, flat water...


You should rephrase that to say "No surface oil sighted". The several million gallons of dispersants BP pumped into the deep waters did their job very well, that job being to keep the oil from coming to the top where it could be counted; now those millions of gallons of dispersants--along with tens of millions of gallons of uncollected, unevaporated oil--are dispersing through the Gulf unseen. And so far as I know, all edible Gulf seafood lives and breathes not at the surface, but down among the dispersant-and oil-tainted waters.

Nah, much as I love Gulf shrimp, fish, and oysters, it'll be a long time before I dive into a plate of 'em. Pity...
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Wow the CMC also turns 93L very far West and very far South as well....HUM....my gut is starting to get that feeling!

Like a feeling something is brewing? :)
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mornin' everyone.. miz zoo !

nice video Pat, you guys rock!
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Quoting hydrus:
We are on our way. Gulf Pinks, here I come.
Come on down...how many pounds do you want? We got crabs too (note to Louisiana people, yes, your crabs are bigger)
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Gotta run....I believe 93L is becoming a real Sleeper and will now be turning West. Something to watch in my opinion. Models are starting to spread very quickly on agreeing with any track. That is never a good sign as they were in good agreement accept the lonely NGP which had it futher south and moving wEst.....it just may have been correct or as close as any of them. Have a good day!
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2093. JavPR


something east of the island at 144h...
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2092. bird72
I'm new here, I can't embed photos, don't know what happen. Never mind, 30lat 13long looks interesting. I see a post last night about this one looking better than 93l, so i agree with him, and satellite also. NHC?
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2091. Patrap
Google ATCF tropical Tracking.

Its vary EASY
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no comment yet!
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2089. Patrap
Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery
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can someone post a link to atcf model site?
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Wow the CMC also turns 93L very far West and very far South as well....HUM....my gut is starting to get that feeling!
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Model plots still take 92L over the southern Bay of Campeche. SHIPS forecasts very favorable conditions there for development, and strengthens it to 50kts, LGEM brings it to 45kt. Both are probably unreasonable without a developed system.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2085. hydrus
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Oil report: the floatilla just came thru Choctaw Bay, no oil sited. BUY GULF COAST SEAFOOD, it's safe and as good as ever. It's hot, muggy, flat water...
We are on our way. Gulf Pinks, here I come.
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2084. Patrap
Morn' zoomiami
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2083. Patrap
One never,ever uses "Pre" in tropical forecasting. Never,Ever..

"Pre" isnt viable

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Quoting IKE:


Thanks:) That is subject to change.


Always - kind of like ship's schedule - written in sand, LOL.
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Morning Pat - nice piece on Portlight trailer
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Oil report: the floatilla just came thru Choctaw Bay, no oil sited. BUY GULF COAST SEAFOOD, it's safe and as good as ever. It's hot, muggy, flat water...
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2078. bird72
Quoting bird72:
13lat 30long?????

Invest???? TD????????

NHC, is very slow this year.......
Quoting

atlantic
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2077. hydrus
Quoting aquak9:


BWWAHAHAHAA!!! I LOVES THAT COMMERCIAL!!
Good Morning Aquak Some cool pics and a song.Link
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I did say last night pre-94L was soon going to loose it pre- the time is not now but soon


Ya....94L is out there.....just SE of 93L...its looking very strong but, should move West then NW and probably hit the gap between the 2 highs.

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Quoting LoneStarWeather:

I'll say "wow" when it actually turns into something significant...and based on this season so far, the chances of that are quite low IMO.
Yes agree, not an expert but I think the season was hype because "La niña", and SST. But dry air and TUTT are everywhere, waves really struggle to survive.So far 2 little extremely weak storms an a cat 2 hurricane south of Rio Grande.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ehh, I don't think so. If it is cold core it wouldn't take long to transition to warm cored. These waters are warmer than they where when Claudette span up.


I always takes 2-3 days when connected to a cold front.....maybe even longer. IMO
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The blog is relatively slow this morning.
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I did say last night pre-94L was soon going to loose it pre- the time is not now but soon
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Quoting aquak9:


think it'll make it as far as 55W a'fore it crosses 20?

yeah, ok, that's probably kinda stretching it there...



If you believe in some models yes...here is the NGP model



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I'm practing.

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Claudette was a great example of how quickly that can happen if the conditions are right, and they would be even better in this case.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ehh, I don't think so. If it is cold core it wouldn't take long to transition to warm cored. These waters are warmer than they where when Claudette span up.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


We was talking about that yesterday evening....how the tailend of the cold front could spin up something......but, it would be a slow process as it would probably be a cold core first.


Ehh, I don't think so. If it is cold core it wouldn't take long to transition to warm cored. These waters are warmer than they where when Claudette span up.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24173
2067. aquak9
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't think a loop will occur....but, i am sure less than 50% in my mind that its going to go harmlessly out to sea as models first thought. Not really sure as it move West much further that another gap will open...as it is now currently due South of the hole shot.....I believe 93L is coming much further West now.





think it'll make it as far as 55W a'fore it crosses 20?

yeah, ok, that's probably kinda stretching it there...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF latching on to a system in the Gulf by 120 hours.



We was talking about that yesterday evening....how the tailend of the cold front could spin up something......but, it would be a slow process as it would probably be a cold core first.
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thanks!

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yes.
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Still look to be coming from a cutoff low due to our gulf/east coast trough?



Yes.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24173
I know the West side of the bigh high is forecast to break down as well but, i'm not too sure its gonna break down completely as first appeared as models have backed off some now.
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Snow in Brazil, below zero Celsius in the River Plate and tropical fish frozen

For a second day running it snowed Wednesday in Southern Brazil and in twelve of Argentinas 24 provinces including parts of Buenos Aires as a consequence of the polar front covering most of the continents southern cone with zero and below zero temperatures.


Light snow storms in Brazil were concentrated in areas of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. O Globo network aired snow flakes falling in early morning, cars covered with a thin white coating and some roads dangerously slippery because of ice.

In Argentina the phenomenon extended to Northern provinces, geographically sub-tropical while in the Patagonia and along the Andes snow reached over a metre deep, isolating villages and causing yet undisclosed losses to crops and livestock.

The extreme cold weather is expected to peak Thursday dawn with below zero temperatures and even lower with the wind chill factor.

After a harsh weekend, Argentinas National Weather Forecast Service announced the cold weather is expected to stay until Thursday although it could again reach a freezing peak over the coming week-end.

On Wednesday a northbound cold front hit the Patagonia and central Argentine regions. In Patagonia, minimum temperatures went as low as minus 10 Celsius with even lower numbers in snowy regions, while maximum temps were in the range of zero to 7 Celsius.

Because of the freezing temperatures power consumption set new records both in Argentina and Uruguay. According to Argentinas Planning ministry, electricity demand reached 20.669 MW at 20:15 hours when most Argentine families are home back from work. Although residential demand was satisfied, hundreds of industries suffered an anticipated blackout.

In Uruguay the power record consumption was reached on Wednesday at 20:45. The lowest temperatures were registered in the north and west of the country: minus 7 Celsius.

In related news, reports from landlocked Bolivia indicate that to the east of the country in tropical areas temperatures plummeted to zero causing millions of dead fish in rivers that normally flow in an environment of 20 Celsius.

Santa Cruz governor Ruben Costas said the province was suffering a major environmental catastrophe and warned the population not to make use of water from rivers (because of the dead fauna and flora) promising to send drinking water in municipal trucks.

The last time something of this magnitude happened was 47 years ago, said governor Costas.
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92L just dried up and blew away!
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Quoting aquak9:
tampa- do you think there's any possibilty for a loop? Older BAM suite had such a hard dive to the SE a day or two ago.


I don't think a loop will occur....but, i am sure less than 50% in my mind that its going to go harmlessly out to sea as models first thought. Not really sure as it move West much further that another gap will open...as it is now currently due South of the hole shot.....I believe 93L is coming much further West now.



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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.