Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/92/L
MARK
17.21N/83.39W
KOTG very close to what I've been sayin I have at it 17.2N/82.5W, I think its working its way down to the surface fast too. This is expanding giving the appearance of rapid movement this thing is creepin WNW-NW imo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7695
may be time will tell when the new maps come updates come in

but in the mean time am staying with this the center has refrom the new center is at 18N and it has stalled or moveing N vary slow


all so all the tigh spining a round is at 18N i dont see any kind of spin at all near the coast




Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114767
Quoting zoomiami:
Levi if your still around: why do you think nogaps is the outlier on 93L?

Find it unusual that it is so far off the other models.


The NOGAPS might actually have a better handle on the situation than the other models, and the ECMWF shows the same thing which says a lot. The other models have a poleward bias early in the game and always underestimate the strength of ridges. It should move northwest initially but could turn west for a while before recurving. It's moving around one ridge and running into another, which should steer it west for a time.
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Quoting Patrap:
93L



I know that when systems look organized in structure and ragged in convection, the next day they become TDs. That's all i'm saying, just by past observations with similar invests.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
BBL or tommorow.......Enjoy your afternoon and happy hunting...Gotta go home and get the tackle ready for some redfishing tommorow morning in "oil free" Apalachee Bay........WW


Good luck and have fun.
sheri
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So you are saying we should abandon science decades in the making for your speculation....

I think that is why the pffft came out sir

Quoting KennyNebraska:


pfft yourself! Best to throw out them models!
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


AHA...
I found it on Storms list of links

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

StormW has posted a resource for reading which I found useful which I thought I had bookmarked, but I don't see it. If you don't get a good recommendation here, you could try posting that question on Storm's blog.

Thanks to you and BahaHurican both! I've lurked here for several years and picked up just enough good info to be dangerous.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


POOF.


Then poof everyone commenting on what 92L is going to do.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yup the way its going


No... all those saying 92L will become a hurricane are acting ridiculous.... IT DOESNT EVEN HAVE A SURFACE LOW.... It doesnt matter if it looks nice....
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Quoting TexasHurricane:



Probably because colin will be a fish. The other area in the Atlantic is impressive but not close to land, and the 92L is pretty impressive to the eye and close to land and if by chance it could go a little more north and give it more time over water than it could be a different story. Just my guess


+1
very nicely put.
sheri
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LOL....

Quoting Patrap:
..Thats no Moon Chewy,

..dats a CV Space Station..



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BBL or tommorow.......Enjoy your afternoon and happy hunting...Gotta go home and get the tackle ready for some redfishing tommorow morning in "oil free" Apalachee Bay........WW
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


None of the models predict that 92L will be a US event. All Mexico.


pfft yourself! Best to throw out them models!
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93L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127640
Quoting wfyweather:
Why is everyone throwing a fit about 92L when we have an active tropical storm... and another invest with more potential out there? I just don't get it... 92L probably won't develop...
That's why. It's got "underdog" qualities, which makes its fate more suspenseful and therefore more interesting....
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Pat I would keep and eye on 92L as it may track in your direction as well as possible tropical developement around FL would move your way.
Both of those assumptions have no model support. 92L is forecasted to move WNW into the BOC and off into Mexico. That trough split occurring in the NE GOMEX will likely move SE towards northern Florida as indicated by the ECMWF.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting wfyweather:
Why is everyone throwing a fit about 92L when we have an active tropical storm... and another invest with more potential out there? I just don't get it... 92L probably won't develop...


Well maybe cause it's closer to land. DUH We are talking about all the tropics. Chill out
Sheri
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93L

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127640
Quoting KennyNebraska:
92L might be a depression tomorrow, a TS late tomorrow, and a hurricane by Sunday as it shoots the gap and enters the GoM

Every where east of NO could be under the gun.

Wilma type storm developing, imo.


pfft.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
Quoting BDAwx:
surf has definitely picked up in Bermuda!
I would estimate south shore is seeing waves at least 3-5 feet.
otherwise there isn't too much to say theres a tropical storm on the way.


well... dont get comfy yet... this thing has time to strengthen before hitting you.
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Quoting wfyweather:
Why is everyone throwing a fit about 92L when we have an active tropical storm... and another invest with more potential out there? I just don't get it... 92L probably won't develop...



Probably because colin will be a fish. The other area in the Atlantic is impressive but not close to land, and the 92L is pretty impressive to the eye and close to land and if by chance it could go a little more north and give it more time over water than it could be a different story. Just my guess
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Levi32:
I don't deny it's a nice-looking system. We'll see. It could work down before moving inland, but I doubt it has the time to become a depression.
Like I said I have a hard time not listening to what you have to say. How long does it usually take for a mid level circulation take to work its way down to the surface.
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Quoting all4hurricanes:
I answered my own question 92L is moving at 15-20mph it is 324 miles from the Yucatan so it has 16-21 hours over water If it persists it could easily be a TS tomorrow and possibly even a hurricane



yup the way its going
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114767
..Thats no Moon Chewy,

..dats a CV Space Station..



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127640
Quoting Jeff9641:


Pat I would keep and eye on 92L as it may track in your direction as well as possible tropical developement around FL would move your way.


None of the models predict that 92L will be a US event. All Mexico.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
am thinking 92L will pull a Humberto
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114767
Jeff you got a link? I am going to check out the SWFL water management district models page


Quoting Jeff9641:


Wow and it looks as if the models are starting to think more west with 93L.
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I answered my own question 92L is moving at 15-20mph it is 324 miles from the Yucatan so it has 16-21 hours over water If it persists it could easily be a TS tomorrow and possibly even a hurricane
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Levi if your still around: why do you think nogaps is the outlier on 93L?

Find it unusual that it is so far off the other models.
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92L might be a depression tomorrow, a TS late tomorrow, and a hurricane by Sunday as it shoots the gap and enters the GoM

Every where east of NO could be under the gun.

Wilma type storm developing, imo.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'll be watching for any wind shift on the Buoy off the East Coast of the Yucatan. If in fact 92L is reforming North and East, the winds should shift to out of the Northeast: Wind Direction at 42056

The winds and gusts are already at their highest points in the 5 day history: Wind and Pressure
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Quoting wfyweather:
Why is everyone throwing a fit about 92L when we have an active tropical storm... and another invest with more potential out there? I just don't get it... 92L probably won't develop...


Two words....

Sleeper cell..... it's the no see ums that get ya like Humberto
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Tighten up dem seat belts..

The Atlantic Vs MJO with a SST Bonus is about to get a cranking..


Boogity,boogity Boogity
Boys..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127640
771. BDAwx
surf has definitely picked up in Bermuda!
I would estimate south shore is seeing waves at least 3-5 feet.
otherwise there isn't too much to say theres a tropical storm on the way.
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That is one of the largest circulations I have seen in the past 6 years....93L

Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L may have a shot in the BOC, assuming the Yucatan doesn't disrupt it too much. 93L however, remains massive.

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INV/92/L
MARK
17.21N/83.39W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Good Afternoon...

The NHC seems to have basically aced the track of Alex Bonnie and Collin so far, no major changes like Ivan of 2004.
It's my oft-recited opinion that while the 2005 season wasn't that wonderful for the humans in the path of its multitudinous storms, it did wonders for TC wx modeling / forecasting, as it provided such a wealth and variety of atmospheric data.
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I don't deny it's a nice-looking system. We'll see. It could work down before moving inland, but I doubt it has the time to become a depression.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L may have a shot in the BOC, assuming the Yucatan doesn't disrupt it too much. 93L however, remains massive.




i think the nhc may go high with 93L at the next two
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114767
Do we really need to answer that?

Quoting wfyweather:
Why is everyone throwing a fit about 92L when we have an active tropical storm... and another invest with more potential out there? I just don't get it... 92L probably won't develop...
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92L may have a shot in the BOC, assuming the Yucatan doesn't disrupt it too much. 93L however, remains massive.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23619
from Presslord


ABC News4 in Charleston will be broadcasting a story about our relief trailer tonight (August 6) at 6 PM EDT. It can be viewed after 7 PM EDT at:
www.abcnews4.com


Portlight Blog

Here are photos of our Relief Trailer...and the first items being stored in it. By the end of this week, we will be 100% ready to deploy.

Thanks!!!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127640
Why is everyone throwing a fit about 92L when we have an active tropical storm... and another invest with more potential out there? I just don't get it... 92L probably won't develop...
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Quoting BigTuna:

Can anyone recommend a learning site that's a little more advanced than the JetStream site? I'd be especially interested in gaining a better understanding of the many different maps and charts that are posted here daily.


AHA...
I found it on Storms list of links

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/

StormW has posted a resource for reading which I found useful which I thought I had bookmarked, but I don't see it. If you don't get a good recommendation here, you could try posting that question on Storm's blog.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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