Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting KarenRei:


COC relocation? What circulation? ;) The only vorticity it has is practically on land.


I does look like main circulation has shifted to the North. In these developing systems that is not unusual. The "Center" goes from less favorable position to more favorable position.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



dont start crap on this blog oh you are looking too start crap go too other site



MARK MY WORDS I WILL NOT PUT UP WITH ANY ONE SAY SO ABOUT MY WRITEING YOU WILL BE PUT ON Ignore IF YOU DO SAY SOME IN DONT NOT Quote HIM OR SAY ANY THING TOO HIM OR YOU WILL BE Ignore


I'm sorry. I'm new to this and I don't comment too much. I just like to be informed with all the information that is posted.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


What is YOUR thinking, Taz?




see my photo for more the center has reform
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Jeff9641:


Really! Well here you go.

Tampa Discussion
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
WED. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE POSITION AND THE MOISTURE RETURN. GFS
PUSHES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WESTWARD THROUGH GA AND AL AND
ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A SURFACE LOW. ECMWF IS SHOWING A
CLOSED 1010 LOW FORMING OVER TAMPA BAY WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF



I wouldn't be surprised if we hit 20 inches before August is over, we have already had 9.23 to start this month!!!

Ground is saturated around here, plus its only 6 ft elevation here, so the ground looks like swamp everywhere right now. We have had an inch or greater every day since August started!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



way too far S it not even down there


What is YOUR thinking, Taz?
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Quoting Goldenblack:
That is what I have been saying...but more of a reformation than relocation to me...

92L is in the "sweet spot " for reformation and RI.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
bwi what hat you just posted show that a LLC is forming
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Quoting Tazmanian:



way too far S it not even down there



see my photo

may be time will tell when the new maps come updates come in

but in the mean time am staying with this the center has refrom the new center is at 18N and it has stalled or moveing N vary slow


all so all the tigh spining a round is at 18N i dont see any kind of spin at all near the coast




Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting stormpetrol:
92L also looks like its starting to ventilate well.


92L is suprising me a little, thought it was dead in the water last night as it looked like the system was making landfall in Central America. The southern portion of the wave axis indeed has made landfall, but the northern portion has produced an continually organizing storm cluster over water. See some rotation off the north coast of Honduras, which makes sense because that's where the folks running the computer models initialize the center of 92L. Still, don't know if it has enough time to develop before getting to the Yucatan, and we'll see what happens when it gets to the Bay of Campeche.
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Quoting Snowlover123:
Good Evening!

In my opinion, I think that the models are too far south for 92L. A path similar to Alex and TD2 is what I'm thinking.




way too far S it not even down there
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Jeff9641:


A coc relocation?


COC relocation? What circulation? ;) The only vorticity it has is practically on land.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It is likely that the Moscow heatwave will be deadlier than the entire 2010 hurricane season.


Lets hope so!
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Good Evening!

In my opinion, I think that the models are too far south for 92L. A path similar to Alex and TD2 is what I'm thinking.

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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It is likely that the Moscow heatwave will be deadlier than the entire 2010 hurricane season.
You don't know that...
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Quoting Jeff9641:


What? the Euro tries to develope a low and track it to LA. Man you are out of it sometimes.

http://www.dejongonline.com/weather/weathermodel.htm
Ok. The 12z ECMWF hasn't update on the Raleigh site...weird.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Click the MSLP Box

92L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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That is what I have been saying...but more of a reformation than relocation to me...

Quoting Jeff9641:


A coc relocation?
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That is an interesting observation. It does....indicative of strengthening, no matter what atmospheric level it is currently center within

Quoting stormpetrol:
92L also looks like its starting to ventilate well.
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we live in "wine country" in northern california. we had our second coolest july in since the 1960's. our personal grapes and some of the vineyards in this area are having what's called green rot. vineyards will be hit hard this year.

can't wait to see what winter brings..........
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Quoting Levi32:


It really depends on the situation and how rapid the system is developing, but generally when something is not vertically stacked it takes a little while, often over a day, and sometimes longer or never.
Thank you and keep up the great work.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It is likely that the Moscow heatwave will be deadlier than the entire 2010 hurricane season.


Likely, but I'd hate to be the one to jinx it. Impossible to tell where we'll be 3 months from now.
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Afternoon folks,

Someone at the National Hurricane Center needs to be fired for this graphic:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203315.shtml?basin#contents

LOL, this person obviously doesn't know how to plot latitude and longitude. They got 93L in the wrong spot completely.
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Welcome! Have some thick skin, some new posters have been chased recently. Just remember, for every nasty post, there are two or three people who are here with the patience and understanding to discuss, answer questions, or look objectively at your additions

Quoting tornadolarkin:
I'm new to commenting on here. I'm here to post about weather and nothing else.

Looks like the mjo is becoming more favorable.
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92L also looks like its starting to ventilate well.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
824. bwi
Winds still light south at Grand Cayman, and winds light north now 2 degrees south at the buoy:
Continuous Winds TIME
(EDT) WDIR WSPD
4:50 pm N ( 358 deg ) 2.5 m/s
4:40 pm N ( 351 deg ) 1.8 m/s
4:30 pm NNW ( 331 deg ) 1.0 m/s
4:20 pm NNW ( 340 deg ) 0.7 m/s
4:10 pm N ( 356 deg ) 0.9 m/s
4:00 pm NNE ( 30 deg ) 0.9 m/s
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Quoting cheaterwon:
Like I said I have a hard time not listening to what you have to say. How long does it usually take for a mid level circulation take to work its way down to the surface.


It really depends on the situation and how rapid the system is developing, but generally when something is not vertically stacked it takes a little while, often over a day, and sometimes longer or never.
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Thanks Levi
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
I'm new to commenting on here. I'm here to post about weather and nothing else.

Looks like the mjo is becoming more favorable.
Member Since: May 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 352
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


+1
very nicely put.
sheri


Thanks... :)
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By the way, any of your Floridians in the Tampa area know that the Ruskin weather office is EXTREMELY conservative and understated compared with the rest of the Florida offices. If they said something, there is model support.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Really! Well here you go.

Tampa Discussion
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
WED. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE POSITION AND THE MOISTURE RETURN. GFS
PUSHES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WESTWARD THROUGH GA AND AL AND
ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A SURFACE LOW. ECMWF IS SHOWING A
CLOSED 1010 LOW FORMING OVER TAMPA BAY WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
my wunderground is all messed up.... just me?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


Really! Well here you go.

Tampa Discussion
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT BRINGING A TUTT LOW ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
WED. MAIN DIFFERENCE IS THE POSITION AND THE MOISTURE RETURN. GFS
PUSHES THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WESTWARD THROUGH GA AND AL AND
ECMWF BRINGS IT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...
BOTH MODELS DEVELOP SOMEWHAT OF A SURFACE LOW. ECMWF IS SHOWING A
CLOSED 1010 LOW FORMING OVER TAMPA BAY WHILE THE GFS DEVELOPS AN
OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
Yeah you just proved my point. No models take anything to New Orleans as you suggested, they take it to Florida.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
You are correct....another round of heat on the way for the US too. This summer has been scary

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It is likely that the Moscow heatwave will be deadlier than the entire 2010 hurricane season.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/92/L
MARK
17.21N/83.39W
KOTG very close to what I've been sayin I have at it 17.2N/82.5W, I think its working its way down to the surface fast too. This is expanding giving the appearance of rapid movement this thing is creepin WNW-NW imo.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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