Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Autistic2:
Why is the black line on the computer models for the ionvest so far different from all the others.


Which black line? The NOGAPS model? That's the black line on Wunderground.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
All 93L needs is a convective boost.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


92L is def looking better. Came back from the dead just like Colin! I think the high over us here in Houston will continue to be strong enough to keep anything that develops away from us. But that just means more heat advisories =(


This sparked a question from me -- how long do highs tend to linger over an area.. do they vary or is there a general pattern? I know there is prob a lot of factors involved so I'm wondering more generally -- For example, if a TS was entered into the Gulf this weekend and was heading towards Texas where there is a high, can you anticipate the high would still be there by the time it was a threat (ie.. say 4-5 days out)?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Colin - B - 45 mph

92L - B - 20%

93L - B - 40%
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For the poll, I would say B,C,D
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Why is the black line on the computer models for the ionvest so far different from all the others.
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It never fails.......I'm leavin for a cruise out of New Orleans tomorrow and this low is sitting right by Cozumel...just my luck...the last cruise I went on dropped me off in Galveston because "K" was in the Gulf!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: At 8 PM, what will Colin be in terms of intensity?

A. 40 mph
B. 45 mph
C. 50 mph
D. 55 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: At 8 Pm, what will Invest 92L be in terms of percentages?

A. 10%
B. 20%
C. 30%
D. 40%
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: At 8 pm, what will Invest 93L be in terms of percentages?

A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%
E. Higher or lower than listed


B, C, C.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Grothar:


Just watching the tropics and having a new generator installed. They won't let me in any taverns anymore. They say my walker is a distraction. How you been? Back now that the tropics are beginning to heat up?
If you'd quit using that walker to trip the pretty girls and bash their boyfriends you might not get tossed out.
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Quoting Grothar:


That was back in the 70's. (Not my 70's, THE 70's)LOL I am within walking distance, well, not anymore.

well it'll just take you a little longer to get there then... lol... bar closes at 2 so if you start now.....hmmmm..... make sure to tell everyone something will be brewing in the Bahamas.....
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
B, B, D
I would give 93L a 60% chance, however I know the probably won't so I went with 50%.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
So I dug through my lengthy list of favorites, and here are some informative links if u want some more detail than the Jetstream approach:

StormJunkie's list of links, which is always very useful.
http://www.stormjunkie.com/qcklnk.html

StormCarib's general guide which is straightforward and hands-on.
http://www.stormcarib.com/guide.htm

The Navy's Handbook.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/tropcycl.htm

The Aussie BOM guide to TCs.
http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/tcguide/globa_guide_intro.htm

A manual for using satellite imagery in wx analysis and forecasting. http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/main.htm

An article about determining TC intensity.
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap13/cyclone_intensity.html

NOAA's Dvorak conversion chart.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Something about African Easterly Waves [AEWs].
http://www.newmediastudio.org/DataDiscovery/Hurr_ED_Center/Easterly_Waves/Easterly_Waves.html

I'd also strongly suggest looking at back issues of DocMaster's, StormW's and Weather456's blogs, as they all have very good blog articles on topics of interest to budding wx masters....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Link -- Near real-time.

Hey Miami Great modis satelite Thanks for putting up the link.
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938. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:09 PM EDT on August 06, 2010

B, A, C.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting hydrus:
You can use a hova-round instead of walker. Tropics are heating up.


Keep that up, hydrus and the tropics aren't the only thing that is going to heat up!! What do you think of 93L? Some models are shifting away from the NW projection.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: At 8 PM, what will Colin be in terms of intensity?

A. 40 mph
B. 45 mph
C. 50 mph
D. 55 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: At 8 Pm, what will Invest 92L be in terms of percentages?

A. 10%
B. 20%
C. 30%
D. 40%
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: At 8 pm, what will Invest 93L be in terms of percentages?

A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%
E. Higher or lower than listed



D for 92L E for 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115076
Quoting weatherman12345:

No ULL


HH cant even fly 93L its too far out
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Link -- Near real-time.

Great link. Thanks!
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B, B, D
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Quoting Snowlover123:
I think that 93L deserves at least a 50% in the next TWO, and 92L looks much better than yesterday. At least a 20-30%, from the NHC, but you know the NHC... always conservative... *sigh*.


92L is def looking better. Came back from the dead just like Colin! I think the high over us here in Houston will continue to be strong enough to keep anything that develops away from us. But that just means more heat advisories =(
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Poll time!

Q: At 8 PM, what will Colin be in terms of intensity?

A. 40 mph
B. 45 mph
C. 50 mph
D. 55 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: At 8 Pm, what will Invest 92L be in terms of percentages?

A. 10%
B. 20%
C. 30%
D. 40%
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: At 8 pm, what will Invest 93L be in terms of percentages?

A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%
E. Higher or lower than listed
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
92L is looking pretty spry at this hour
Spry as in vigorous? I like the new words, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting 954FtLCane:

not even the elbow room?


That was back in the 70's. (Not my 70's, THE 70's)LOL I am within walking distance, well, not anymore.
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Quoting Grothar:


Just watching the tropics and having a new generator installed. They won't let me in any taverns anymore. They say my walker is a distraction. How you been? Back now that the tropics are beginning to heat up?
You can use a hova-round instead of walker. Tropics are heating up.
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92L is looking pretty spry at this hour
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92L

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Quoting psuweathernewbie:
I agree stormpetrol, great post. I don't ignore anyone as well.

93L should be red at 8pm TWO. Needs some deeper convection over the center.


I don't have anyone on ignore either. I'm not on hear to argue. Just to see what's going on in the tropics. :)
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href="http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/" rel=nofollow target=_blank>Link -- Near real-time.
Many thanks!
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93L's center appears to be near 35W and 18N.
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#897 sammywammybamy ...

I like the colorful FL, but I'm sorta dense and can't figure out the context/key. I'm up in orange Santa Rosa - is that good or bad ??
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I agree stormpetrol, great post. I don't ignore anyone as well.

93L should be red at 8pm TWO. Needs some deeper convection over the center.
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Quoting Grothar:


Just watching the tropics and having a new generator installed. They won't let me in any taverns anymore. They say my walker is a distraction. How you been? Back now that the tropics are beginning to heat up?

not even the elbow room?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
+1. I agree!


Me too! :) +1
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Here's Belize's radar. Its starting to show activity.
The loop was working. But a minute ago it wasn't?

http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/Latest_Radar_Image.htm
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Quoting sammywammybamy:

Great map, I'm on the beachside in Daytona Bch &
we have only had three 15 minute rain showers in almost 2 months...feels like a desert...
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Quoting superpete:
Post 908 MH09.May I ask you for the site that provided that satelite image/ a great view.I could see my place if it were not for that cloud...lol
Link -- Near real-time.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
I wonder how you could possibly tie buzz in with the word Tavern. Oh what the hell one more can't hurt.
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I think that 93L deserves at least a 50% in the next TWO, and 92L looks much better than yesterday. At least a 20-30%, from the NHC, but you know the NHC... always conservative... *sigh*.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting stormpetrol:
Damn, you post an honest opinion here whether you're right or wrong and you're labelled a "wishcaster" or you're jumped on like tics on a bull by some! To be quite honest I'm getting fed up and disheartened by this blog, I don't put anyone on ignore, personally I think what everyone has to say is valid, if I don't agree well just overlook it and move on, if you put everyone on ignore then you'd soon only be looking at your comments, probably agreeing and smiling all day long. A good decent opinionated debate is what this blog should be about, not who's right or wrong, time and a little patience will us that, Have a good evening & night everyone!
+1. I agree!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Post 908 MH09.May I ask you for the site that provided that satelite image/ a great view.I could see my place if it were not for that cloud...lol
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Quoting Grothar:


Just watching the tropics and having a new generator installed. They won't let me in any taverns anymore. They say my walker is a distraction. How you been? Back now that the tropics are beginning to heat up?


hahaha :P

yeah ive had a little more time in the evenings now that my softball league is over as of tomorrow. been missing being on here, but a break wasnt a bad thing at all.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Damn, you post an honest opinion here whether you're right or wrong and you're labelled a "wishcaster" or you're jumped on like tics on a bull by some! To be quite honest I'm getting fed up and disheartened by this blog, I don't put anyone on ignore, personally I think what everyone has to say is valid, if I don't agree well just overlook it and move on, if you put everyone on ignore then you'd soon only be looking at your comments, probably agreeing and smiling all day long. A good decent opinionated debate is what this blog should be about, not who's right or wrong, time and a little patience will us that, Have a good evening & night everyone!


+2 great comment and i agree......my 2 cents
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Almost no buildings in Moscow have air conditioning. Normal high and low there today is 70/52. And the city is built for winter---thick buildings that trap heat.


I had no idea. That is horrible!
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Quoting tornadodude:


haha yeah yeah. whats up stranger?


Just watching the tropics and having a new generator installed. They won't let me in any taverns anymore. They say my walker is a distraction. How you been? Back now that the tropics are beginning to heat up?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Mmmmm, ah ha!!! Okay I see it where you see it now. Is it at 85W, 17.2N at this very moment? That's west of Taz's center location.

Also, that major upper trough/low over the NE US and E Canada that's supposed to bend the track of Colin NEward later, isn't that trough causing a low-level ridge weakness along the Gulf coast of the US? That would keep 92L somewhat WNW to NW, with a bend back to the west once it emerges in the SW Gulf of Mexico/northern Bay of Campeche once the weakness passes off to the east. Is that what you are seeing with regards to steering? Does anyone have a 700-850 mb steering map right now?


Yep yep and yep! Great minds think alike! :)

I would initialize the Center about where you would. Also the SSTs are more than favorable for rapid development.

The SSTs are an incredible 31 C over 92L, 30C over Colin, and a toasty 28 Degrees C over 93L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-vis.html
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Damn, you post an honest opinion here whether you're right or wrong and you're labelled a "wishcaster" or you're jumped on like tics on a bull by some! To be quite honest I'm getting fed up and disheartened by this blog, I don't put anyone on ignore, personally I think what everyone has to say is valid, if I don't agree well just overlook it and move on, if you put everyone on ignore then you'd soon only be looking at your comments, probably agreeing and smiling all day long. A good decent opinionated debate is what this blog should be about, not who's right or wrong, time and a little patience will us that, Have a good evening & night everyone!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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