Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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The issue is: What if I take a picture of a weather event: A waterspout, a tropical storm forming and the associated clouds that go with it and what it looks like from the ground. I am right on the beach so I have no obstructions. It may not prove to be useful to the acronym touting professors here on the blog (I can't count 'em all) but it is a different perspective. Apparently, not useful enough to "help a brothuh out" and tell him how to post the pics in a timely manner. Or do they all have to go through an approval process that may take hours? I don't know. That's what I was asking. But either nobody else knows or nobody else cares (which is the difference between ignorance and apathy a feature prevelant here certain times of the day).
I'm not trying to be a ...donkey. I just wanted to add something that would be a little more interesting than the inane drivel sometimes found here, not that there isn't interesting stuff, but how many pictures do you see of the real thing going on? (not from space)
It's frustrating to me and I'm getting too old to submit to something that frustrates me that can be cured with one click of a mouse.
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Someone (Austin ...) just asked a question about how long areas of high pressure stay over an area (i.e. Houston). I'm curious too. Anyone have an answer or a link to a place to find one? Thanks in advance.
Nicole
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SammyWammy's Guide to Posting Pictures on Blogs:

Hello All.

Find an Image you want to Share.

Lets Say a Google image.

Right Click on the image

Click on Properties.

Highlight and Copy it.

This is an example:

"hhtp://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/tracker/dynamic/images/201004N_3.png"

Press Image in the Text Box

Delte the Http that is already in the box

then post the info you Copied earlier.

Click Okay

And DING DING

thats how you do it.

Your Welcome
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Im here to say that Ive done it... I am much more careful now when Im talking about potibility!!! I mean clean water in Basins should be safe to drink.. Especially if you have to augment the filtration!!!!!

SO LISTEN CLOSELY FOLKS!!!



Just kidding Baha!!! Afternoon everyone!!!
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1004. barbamz
Quoting tornadolarkin:


Thanks. I've learned a lot from reading the comments over the past couple weeks. By the way, how do you post a picture?


Here you go
http://wiki.wunderground.com/index.php/WunderBlogs_-_Adding_images
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Ya'll peeps talking about how StSimons "doesn't KNOW" that didn't notice he was talking about likelihood, or PROBABILITY. Given that a death toll of over 4000 would put this season in the top ten worst seasons on record for the basin, I think he CAN know that it's unlikely. Look at pple's word choice a little more carefully sometimes - it might save an unnecessary argument...


Im here to say that Ive done it... I am much more careful now when Im talking about potibility!!! I mean clean water in Basins should be safe to drink.. Especially if you have to augment the filtration!!!!!

SO LISTEN CLOSELY FOLKS!!!
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I think you have to put your picture on the internet hen link to it. I dont think they need to be approved unless you put them in your blog. But other can tell you better. I never posted a picture before.
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Tropical Storm Estelle
National Hurricane Center Advisory #4
5pm EDT Graphics Update

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Quoting scott39:
This season is about to get real interesting!

yep
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Thank you everyone for the answers. One thing I do know is that storms dot travil in a strait line for verylong.
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This season is about to get real interesting!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Welcome to the blog.


Thanks. I've learned a lot from reading the comments over the past couple weeks. By the way, how do you post a picture?
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Quoting KanKunKid:
Well, I'll probably get booted for this but since I'm apparently on everyone's ignore list:

I just asked a simple question and nobody wants to answer it or direct me to where to find the information. You all are watching 92L from a satellite, I'm watching it out my window, right outside. I was thinking you all would appreciate a picture of what I see, but apparently if it doesn't come from a satellite you don't wanna see it. I guess I don't fit into your "clique" so, in the immortal words of Eric Cartman: "Screw you guys, I'm going home"!


I do not have ayyone on ignore, but I am too new on here to know how to post a picture. I Hope someelse here helps you out!
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Quoting Grothar:


Keep that up, hydrus and the tropics aren't the only thing that is going to heat up!! What do you think of 93L? Some models are shifting away from the NW projection.
To early to speculate on it. Plenty of time to watch though. 92L looks impressive, but will go ashore soon. Probably heavy rains for Mexico again.
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Quoting CapeObserver:


The black line is the extrapolated course. It's the current direction in a straight line if it didn't change course or follow steering currents. The others are the models.

Im sorry but I believe the black line he was referring to was the nogaps not the xtrap
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Ya'll peeps talking about how StSimons "doesn't KNOW" that didn't notice he was talking about likelihood, or PROBABILITY. Given that a death toll of over 4000 would put this season in the top ten worst seasons on record for the basin, I think he CAN know that it's unlikely. Look at pple's word choice a little more carefully sometimes - it might save an unnecessary argument...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Fresh bursts with colin and 93L.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
So I dug through my lengthy list of favorites, and here are some informative links if u want some more detail than the Jetstream approach:

StormJunkie's list of links, which is always very useful.
http://www.stormjunkie.com/qcklnk.html

StormCarib's general guide which is straightforward and hands-on.
http://www.stormcarib.com/guide.htm

The Navy's Handbook.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/tropcycl.htm

The Aussie BOM guide to TCs.
http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/pubs/tcguide/globa_guide_intro.htm

A manual for using satellite imagery in wx analysis and forecasting. http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/main.htm

An article about determining TC intensity.
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap13/cyclone_intensity.html

NOAA's Dvorak conversion chart.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Something about African Easterly Waves [AEWs].
http://www.newmediastudio.org/DataDiscovery/Hurr_ED_Center/Easterly_Waves/Easterly_Waves.html

I'd also strongly suggest looking at back issues of DocMaster's, StormW's and Weather456's blogs, as they all have very good blog articles on topics of interest to budding wx masters....

Wow thanks for the treasure trove!
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Quoting KanKunKid:
Well, I'll probably get booted for this but since I'm apparently on everyone's ignore list:

I just asked a simple question and nobody wants to answer it or direct me to where to find the information. You all are watching 92L from a satellite, I'm watching it out my window, right outside. I was thinking you all would appreciate a picture of what I see, but apparently if it doesn't come from a satellite you don't wanna see it. I guess I don't fit into your "clique" so, in the immortal words of Eric Cartman: "Screw you guys, I'm going home"!
Quoting KanKunKid:
Well, I'll probably get booted for this but since I'm apparently on everyone's ignore list:

I just asked a simple question and nobody wants to answer it or direct me to where to find the information. You all are watching 92L from a satellite, I'm watching it out my window, right outside. I was thinking you all would appreciate a picture of what I see, but apparently if it doesn't come from a satellite you don't wanna see it. I guess I don't fit into your "clique" so, in the immortal words of Eric Cartman: "Screw you guys, I'm going home"!

It's an invest... please take a picture for us during a cat 5.... then the clique will definitely be in awe.....
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Quoting KanKunKid:
Well, I'll probably get booted for this but since I'm apparently on everyone's ignore list:

I just asked a simple question and nobody wants to answer it or direct me to where to find the information. You all are watching 92L from a satellite, I'm watching it out my window, right outside. I was thinking you all would appreciate a picture of what I see, but apparently if it doesn't come from a satellite you don't wanna see it. I guess I don't fit into your "clique" so, in the immortal words of Eric Cartman: "Screw you guys, I'm going home"!



The # of people on my ignore list 0
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Quoting KanKunKid:
Well, I'll probably get booted for this but since I'm apparently on everyone's ignore list:

I just asked a simple question and nobody wants to answer it or direct me to where to find the information. You all are watching 92L from a satellite, I'm watching it out my window, right outside. I was thinking you all would appreciate a picture of what I see, but apparently if it doesn't come from a satellite you don't wanna see it. I guess I don't fit into your "clique" so, in the immortal words of Eric Cartman: "Screw you guys, I'm going home"!


Not sure what the issue in the first place is... but imo weather from a local ground perspective is always a plus, so im not sure why people wouldn't let you share your picture. Without information from the ground we could easily miss out on important and vital information.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:

wow 93L looks good 50-60% imo at 8pm
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anyone have an updated MJO octant map...the site I have hasnt updated since Aug. 3rd..must be having problems with the site???
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
Quoting Autistic2:
So most of the models take the inves n/w but the other is almost w. That looks like a big difference. Is the black model a reliable one?


The black line is the extrapolated course. It's the current direction in a straight line if it didn't change course or follow steering currents. The others are the models.
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968. ho77yw00d 6:18 PM EDT on August 06, 2010

did you see my post? it is too far out for HH to fly it
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Tropical Storm Colin
National Hurricane Center Advisory #12
5pm EDT Graphics Update



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hello all from arrived in houston now
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Quoting Autistic2:
So most of the models take the inves n/w but the other is almost w. That looks like a big difference. Is the black model a reliable one?


IMHO, the NOGAPS is a fairly decent model, although some of the other models packed into that consensus to the NW are pretty good as well. There isn't really any better one, although that used to be the case, and partially still is, with the ECMWF and the GFS models.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Well, I'll probably get booted for this but since I'm apparently on everyone's ignore list:

I just asked a simple question and nobody wants to answer it or direct me to where to find the information. You all are watching 92L from a satellite, I'm watching it out my window, right outside. I was thinking you all would appreciate a picture of what I see, but apparently if it doesn't come from a satellite you don't wanna see it. I guess I don't fit into your "clique" so, in the immortal words of Eric Cartman: "Screw you guys, I'm going home"!
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How long is 92L expected to go WNW?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



how about raw fish??


Anything, we'll see if I'm wrong!
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Nice satellite site there mh09. 92l looking like trouble.
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So most of the models take the inves n/w but the other is almost w. That looks like a big difference. Is the black model a reliable one?
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Quoting tornadolarkin:
I'm new to commenting on here. I'm here to post about weather and nothing else.

Looks like the mjo is becoming more favorable.
Welcome to the blog.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting weatherman12345:

No ULL


oh ok thanks.... duh...lol
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Eh, 92L will be 10%, 93L will be 40%.

There is no way in Hades that the odds will be upped imo, crow me if I'm wrong.



how about raw fish??
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115435
The issue with 92L is the fact that it keeps waning its convection, and it doesn't exactly have much time left to get its act together.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Eh, 92L will be 10%, 93L will be 40%.

There is no way in Hades that the odds will be upped imo, crow me if I'm wrong.


ok.

With that said, I'll be back in about an hour and fifteen minutes!

C ya!
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Eh, 92L will be 10%, 93L will be 40%.

There is no way in Hades that the odds will be upped imo, crow me if I'm wrong.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Poll time!

Q: At 8 PM, what will Colin be in terms of intensity?

A. 40 mph
B. 45 mph
C. 50 mph
D. 55 mph
E. Higher or lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: At 8 Pm, what will Invest 92L be in terms of percentages?

A. 10%
B. 20%
C. 30%
D. 40%
E. Higher or Lower than listed
-----------------------------------------------

Q: At 8 pm, what will Invest 93L be in terms of percentages?

A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%
E. Higher or lower than listed


I fell like I'm taking the SATs again... um

C, B, D
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Quoting Autistic2:
Why is the black line on the computer models for the ionvest so far different from all the others.


its the xtrap. that shows the xtrapolitated direction that the system is actually moving
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
It is likely that the Moscow heatwave will be deadlier than the entire 2010 hurricane season.
I sho'nuff hope u are right. That's a lot of pple to be killed off by any wx event, and we sure don't need another Mitch type scenario with casualites in the near 10000 range.... I hope they get some moderation in the temps soon, though....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting Autistic2:
Why is the black line on the computer models for the ionvest so far different from all the others.


Which black line? The NOGAPS model? That's the black line on Wunderground.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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