Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1109. kmanislander
11:23 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:


I place the "center" of 92L near 17.5 N 84.8 W

Still looks like WNW towards the Yucatan
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
1108. aquak9
11:22 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
sfloridacat5

it's img space src ="

then post the code

then ",>
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
1107. Tazmanian
11:22 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
i got a new name for the TUTT raw fish
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
1106. hunkerdown
11:22 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
Here ya go. No Racoons were harmed in the posting of this pic.

and coming from a water dog, thats saying something :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1105. Tazmanian
11:21 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Yeah it is it's from 2PM.



when is the next update
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
1103. hunkerdown
11:21 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the TUTT recently fractured into 2 cold lows, ones off to the NE and one over the Bahamas. Looks like now is when the TUTT should not be a problem.
TUTT needs to see an orthopedist
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1101. aquak9
11:21 PM GMT on August 06, 2010
Here ya go. No Racoons were harmed in the posting of this pic.

Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think thats old


Yeah it is it's from 2PM.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting Tazmanian:
any ways new two comes out soon


back too the weather


20-30% 92L, 50-60% 93L.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting kmanislander:


Good stuff. I am watching 92L the most right now due to proximity to land,near perfect conditions aloft and the TCHP.





do you think the center refrom?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
Quoting kmanislander:


What's up ?. The season still struggling with shear and TUTTs.
Yeah, the TUTT recently fractured into 2 cold lows, ones off to the NE and one over the Bahamas. Looks like now is when shear should not be a problem since there is only one ULL over the Bahamas.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I'm practicing.

[IMG]http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/pp114/SGOS/Latestloop.gif[/IMG]
so you know, I have found photobucket images usually don;t post for me,
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting Tazmanian:



yep


Good stuff. I am watching 92L the most right now due to proximity to land,near perfect conditions aloft and the TCHP.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Taz. You still got everything under control here ?? LOL
relatively speaking...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515


Check it out; twins almost.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
I'm practicing.
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
Quoting aquak9:


I got poofed and ported, too, hunkerdown, for the Recoon pic. But man, a lotta folks got a good laugh. Somehow, with a sincere and humble apology, I squirmed out of a ban.
I served my game misconduct and 3 game suspension last week...gotta watch those pictures :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi taz. You still got everything under control here ?? LOL



yep
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
Howdy everyone...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
AL, 92, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 163N, 846W, 25, 1009



i think thats old
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
Quoting wfyweather:
"Why is everyone throwing a fit about 92L when we have an active tropical storm... and another invest with more potential out there? I just don't get it... 92L probably won't develop..."

I believe this blog means different things for different people. For me its all about Tropical Genesis..... I get as much satisfaction tracking a wave as I do an active storm. It's more about the chase, than actually catching something. Why in the same apparent conditions do some storms develop, while others don't? It's the idea of studying models...... to understand their strengths and weaknesses...... and every season, we see something rare, unusual, or unlikely.....

See there is more to this blog than just looking at tropical storms...... we spend much more time discussing, studying, tracking things that are not tropical storms......

hopefully this helps put into perspective your comment! :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
hi kmanislander:


Hi Taz. You still got everything under control here ?? LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
AL, 92, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 163N, 846W, 25, 1009
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hey Kman! Good to see ya' on.


What's up ?. The season still struggling with shear and TUTTs.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
any ways new two comes out soon


back too the weather
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
hi kmanislander:
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
Quoting btwntx08:
taz it was a joke from him not true...i thought ur nice with me



i am nic with you
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

Still relatively quiet out there.

A couple of things of interest though. Anti-cyclones have now established themselves overhead both 92 and 93L. With 92L this is particularly noticeable with the fanning out of the high cirrus cloud tops.

With 93L, there appears to be another low trying to establish itslef further South near 14N and 36W. The cloud deck is so confusing that it is hard to tell whether the low that is being tracked is really dominant or not. Personally, I prefer the 14N location but we'll see how this plays out.

92L is hanging around the NW Caribbean and does not appear to be moving WNW at any pace at all. Tonight could be interesting with this feature.

Finally Colin. Just a marginal TS on the way out.
Hey Kman! Good to see ya' on.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1076. aquak9
Quoting hunkerdown:
oh goodie, I have been poofed, and soon to be ported.


I got poofed and ported, too, hunkerdown, for the Recoon pic. But man, a lotta folks got a good laugh. Somehow, with a sincere and humble apology, I squirmed out of a ban.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25732
Quoting hunkerdown:
oh goodie, I have been poofed, and soon to be ported.



i un poof you this watch what you say and how you say it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
Good evening folks

Still relatively quiet out there.

A couple of things of interest though. Anti-cyclones have now established themselves overhead both 92 and 93L. With 92L this is particularly noticeable with the fanning out of the high cirrus cloud tops.

With 93L, there appears to be another low trying to establish itslef further South near 14N and 36W. The cloud deck is so confusing that it is hard to tell whether the low that is being tracked is really dominant or not. Personally, I prefer the 14N location but we'll see how this plays out.

92L is hanging around the NW Caribbean and does not appear to be moving WNW at any pace at all. Tonight could be interesting with this feature.

Finally Colin. Just a marginal TS on the way out.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL! Don't poof him he's just messing around with you.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
oh goodie, I have been poofed, and soon to be ported.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting Tazmanian:
1064. hunkerdown 4:07 PM PDT on August 06, 2010 Hide this comment.

Quoting Tazmanian:



hi 09


any thing new about 92 and 93L?

he just logs on and yo have been logged in, why are u asking him ? why don't you fill him in with all of the forecasted gloom and doom, death and destruction that has been predicted by all of the "experts" on the last two pages.




poof
LOL! Don't poof him he's just messing around with you.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
The Belize loop will work for a few minutes then it goes down for a few minutes. Then it starts working again?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6092
Quoting hunkerdown:
he just logs on and yo have been logged in, why are u asking him ? why don't you fill him in with all of the forecasted gloom and doom, death and destruction that has been predicted by all of the "experts" on the last two pages.
LOL. Nah. I was here an hour or so ago and was away because I was doing analysis.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Here are my percentages...a blog entry will be released later this evening.

92L: 20% chance of turning into a tropical storm.
93L: 70% chance of turning into a tropical storm.



cool i was thinking 70% has well
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114720
Quoting hunkerdown:
in unison and harmony, all logged in bloggers respond, "Good evening Mr. MiamiHurricanes09"
LOL, Good evening sir. Hunkerdown.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Tazmanian:



hi 09


any thing new about 92 and 93L?
Here are my percentages...a blog entry will be released later this evening.

92L: 20% chance of turning into a tropical storm.
93L: 70% chance of turning into a tropical storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good evening everyone!
in unison and harmony, all logged in bloggers respond, "Good evening Mr. MiamiHurricanes09"
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.