Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Deep convection firing off on Colin.



Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24161
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
I was right, 40% and 10%.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24161
ok, who screwed up the blog with the pop-up?

Enter username and password for http://www.hydromet.gov.bz
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
Quoting kmanislander:


You should also size it


You can do that, though since WU doesn't enforce that, I left it out for purposes of clarity. It is good practice to always size them, though, plus complete the ALT tag.:

<img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg" width="600" height="400" alt="92L" />
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L is really winding up in my opinion...... were it not the proximity to land, I have no doubt this would be a tropical storm!

I believe it might be a TD now..... or very close!



Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
Quoting Tazmanian:




wunder why the nhc hold 93L at 40% for


Large, disorganized and limited deep convection.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening folks

Still relatively quiet out there.

A couple of things of interest though. Anti-cyclones have now established themselves overhead both 92 and 93L. With 92L this is particularly noticeable with the fanning out of the high cirrus cloud tops.

With 93L, there appears to be another low trying to establish itslef further South near 14N and 36W. The cloud deck is so confusing that it is hard to tell whether the low that is being tracked is really dominant or not. Personally, I prefer the 14N location but we'll see how this plays out.

92L is hanging around the NW Caribbean and does not appear to be moving WNW at any pace at all. Tonight could be interesting with this feature.

Finally Colin. Just a marginal TS on the way out.

Good Evening neighbor, How have you been, haven't seen you around , on well deserved vacation I guess! Well, finally a voice of reason on the blog , great to have your input as always.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Snowlover123:
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 700
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS
SYSTEM COULD GAIN SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.




wunder why the nhc hold 93L at 40% for
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 700
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE CIRCULATION.
THIS
SYSTEM COULD GAIN SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Neapolitan:


Enter the following exactly as you see it:

<img src="http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/pp114/SGOS/Latestloop.gif" alt="" />


You should also size it
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842


Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
I agree with the TWO on 92L...yes it looks good on satellite but nothing is going on at the surface.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
000
ABNT20 KNHC 062333
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI AUG 6 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 700
MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...PRESSURES ARE NOT FALLING
AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS
SYSTEM COULD GAIN SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION BEFORE MOVING OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ON SATURDAY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 6
Location: 28.7°N 66.6°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
and 10% and 40% respectively for the invests
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting aquak9:


i always have, but sometimes they're not needed. I can't figure it out.


Enter the following exactly as you see it:

<img src="http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/pp114/SGOS/Latestloop.gif" alt="" />
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1143. aquak9
Quoting spathy:

And no purple hippo over top fertilizing the circulation.
Is there much of a flood threat from 92?


hi spathy. I can not answer that question. Gonna go water. Pretty bad when even the cayenne peppers are complaining about the heat.

later ya'll
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This is where I have the area of low pressure.



I'd have it a tad north (20-30 miles) but that looks good to me.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
8:00 PM AST Fri Aug 6
Location: 28.7°N 66.6°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: N at 9 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The NHC has fixed their "Mariners 1-2-3" chart.

Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
1139. barbamz
Sfloridacat5, here it is:

" alt="" />
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This is where I have the area of low pressure:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
we follow what the nhc say if the nhc say it has time it has time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting Neapolitan:
TS Estelle and 92L settling in for the night:



Looks impressive. Nice spiral banding is observed with both systems.
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
1134. aquak9
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
img src="http://i403.photobucket.com/albums/pp114/SGOS/Latestloop.gif">


you forgot the < in the front of it
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
92L looks great, but I'm with Levi's thinking that it doesn't have enough time to consolidate a surface circulation and become vertically stacked with the mid-level circulation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
TS Estelle and 92L settling in for the night:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7307
1130. aquak9
Quoting hunkerdown:
did he find any good food on his mission ?


nope, he just found me banned!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
Quoting hunkerdown:
class, your response...


:P

how's Colin looking tonight?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1128. BDAwx
"Breaking News: Tropical Storm Colin to come within 30 miles of Bermuda
Beaches being closed as storm causes dangerous rip tides" - The Royal Gazette
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Close enough. May well be 18 by the time the update comes out.



yup i am we are right
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting aquak9:
Recoon: Link
did he find any good food on his mission ?
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting Tazmanian:



to me it looks more like 18N


Close enough. May well be 18 by the time the update comes out.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That isn't hurricane hunters data, that is the ATCF best track...163N means 16.3 north.


Okay. Thanks for enlightening the noob here. ;)
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
1122. aquak9
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Do you need to include the quotes?


i always have, but sometimes they're not needed. I can't figure it out.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
Quoting Snowlover123:


Ted, I'm still learning the HH data, as I am still a novice meteorologist. What exactly does that mean, what you've bolded?
That isn't hurricane hunters data, that is the ATCF best track...163N means 16.3 north.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Around 00Z or 8PM EDT. Although sometimes the update doesnt come out until about 8:30 but we should see it within the next hour.


ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting tornadodude:
evening all
class, your response...
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
1118. aquak9
.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 166 Comments: 26045
Quoting Tazmanian:



when is the next update


Around 00Z or 8PM EDT. Although sometimes the update doesnt come out until about 8:30 but we should see it within the next hour.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1116. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm 04L (COLIN) Warning
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of FRI 06 Aug 2010 23:15:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
93L.INVEST
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
07E.SEVEN
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
98W.INVEST
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Snowlover123:


Ted, I'm still learning the HH data, as I am still a novice meteorologist. What exactly does that mean, what you've bolded?
16.3 North
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
Quoting Snowlover123:


Ted, I'm still learning the HH data, as I am still a novice meteorologist. What exactly does that mean, what you've bolded?



its old
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting aquak9:
sfloridacat5

it's img space src ="

then post the code

then ",>


Do you need to include the quotes?
Member Since: September 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7307
Quoting kmanislander:


I place the "center" of 92L near 17.5 N 84.8 W

Still looks like WNW towards the Yucatan



to me it looks more like 18N
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
evening all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
AL, 92, 2010080618, , BEST, 0, 163N, 846W, 25, 1009


Ted, I'm still learning the HH data, as I am still a novice meteorologist. What exactly does that mean, what you've bolded?
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
Quoting Tazmanian:


I place the "center" of 92L near 17.5 N 84.8 W

Still looks like WNW towards the Yucatan
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.