Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2159. SLU
Quoting Neapolitan:


From what I know, that graph shows the number of storms to be expected per 100 years on any given day. That is, not how many are born, but how many are active on that day on average. (If it were the number of storms born, there'd have to be one that formed on September 10th virtually every year, and that just doesn't happen.)


I think that would be the best explanation.
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367

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Quoting greentortuloni:


Dude, you are so right it's scary. Also, I was reading in Southern Patagonian Icefisherman Weekly that 1 out of every ice fisherman said the ice seemed colder this year than last. Where is that info?


A) The world's getting quickly warmer:



B) A cold snap isn't proof of the absence of GW anymore than a warm spell is proof of the opposite (though if we were to compare and contrast, we'd have to note that the current South American phenomenon hasn't happened for 47 years, while the Russian/European heat wave hasn't happened forever).
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
2156. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting truecajun:


+1. It's concerning. The covering if the ears they can do like children "I'm not listening. I'm not listening"


LOL
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
Quoting greentortuloni:


Dude, you are so right it's scary. Also, I was reading in Southern Patagonian Icefisherman Weekly that 1 out of every ice fisherman said the ice seemed colder this year than last. Where is that info?


+1. It's concerning. The covering if the ears they can do like children "I'm not listening. I'm not listening"
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Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL STORM COLIN / 92L / 93L SYNOPSIS AUGUST 07, 2010 ISSUED 10:20 A.M.


Thank You Sir
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
Quoting Thaale:
Hi SLU, or anyone who knows: I've been wondering about how to read that TS frequency graph that SLU posted. It is often posted here and elsewhere, and I see it's a NOAA product, but I can't find their description of it.

Do you know what exactly is being represented, say on Sept 10? Are they saying that in a 100 year period, a total of 50 hurricanes are expected to form on September 10 specifically? Or that in 100 years, the expected number of hurricanes active on September 10 is 50?

It makes a big difference, as the first way a storm would only be counted once (or maybe in Colin's case twice, once for each day on which he was upgraded to TS), whereas the second way, a storm would contribute to multiple points.

I think the second interpretation is more likely, but if anyone knows the answer or could point me toward a NOAA explanation, I'd appreciate it. TIA



From what I know, that graph shows the number of storms to be expected per 100 years on any given day. That is, not how many are born, but how many are active on that day on average. (If it were the number of storms born, there'd have to be one that formed on September 10th virtually every year, and that just doesn't happen.)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Quoting spathy:


The Gulf is a big place.
And there is no oil down here near Naples and Fort Myers Fl.
There is plenty of non tainted seafood coming out of the Gulf.
Eat up:0)
Ah Ooo Ah, Ah Ooo ah, Ah Ooo Ah...(my best John Boy)...on that note, gotta go prep for a boil this afternoon. Yep, we're eating this mornings' catch, dispersants and all (note to those without a joke filter: there are no dispersants here)...have a great day all
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Quoting hydrus:
A little 30 weight wont kill me...jk...


Hey probably safe as any other meat. Hasn't been there long enough to bio-accumulate. For once the big fish are the best. Lol
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Radarscope is the best radar program for your phone. There are many weather apps but that's the first one that I paid for. If you have any questions feel free to shoot me a WU email.


thanks. I will check it out. My dad was talking about a few weather app the other day, but I can't recall which.
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2147. Relix
Future 94L is the one to watch for the Caribbean guys!
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Quoting mckyj57:
Sigh -- this is getting tiresome. You post a promo for James Hansen's book instead of mentioning the unusual cold in the Southern hemisphere that kills scores of people. Doesn't fit with the narrative, I guess.

I think I will take my weather business elsewhere.


Dude, you are so right it's scary. Also, I was reading in Southern Patagonian Icefisherman Weekly that 1 out of every ice fisherman said the ice seemed colder this year than last. Where is that info?
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2144. JavPR
Quoting bird72:


see your inbox

done...
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2143. Thaale
Hi SLU, or anyone who knows: I've been wondering about how to read that TS frequency graph that SLU posted. It is often posted here and elsewhere, and I see it's a NOAA product, but I can't find their description of it.

Do you know what exactly is being represented, say on Sept 10? Are they saying that in a 100 year period, a total of 50 hurricanes are expected to form on September 10 specifically? Or that in 100 years, the expected number of hurricanes active on September 10 is 50?

It makes a big difference, as the first way a storm would only be counted once (or maybe in Colin's case twice, once for each day on which he was upgraded to TS), whereas the second way, a storm would contribute to multiple points.

I think the second interpretation is more likely, but if anyone knows the answer or could point me toward a NOAA explanation, I'd appreciate it. TIA

Member Since: October 19, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 308
Quoting truecajun:


I love it. It took some getting used to since I upgraded from a 1998 Nokia candybar. But now that I've got the hang of it, I couldn't imagine being without. It's like a little traveling computer.

What's radarscope? An app?


Radarscope is the best radar program for your phone. There are many weather apps but that's the first one that I paid for. If you have any questions feel free to shoot me a WU email.
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2140. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:


Catsup? With your shrimp? :-) Seriously, though, I tend to agree with what a Louisianan oysterman/crab & shrimp fisherman said on the news a few days ago: "If I put fish in a barrel of water and poured oil and Dove detergent over that, and mixed it up, would you eat that fish?"

You do know there are other safer sources of seafood right now than the oily Gulf, right?
A little 30 weight wont kill me...jk...
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Catsup? With your shrimp? :-) Seriously, though, I tend to agree with what a Louisianan oysterman/crab & shrimp fisherman said on the news a few days ago: "If I put fish in a barrel of water and poured oil and Dove detergent over that, and mixed it up, would you eat that fish?"

You do know there are other safer sources of seafood right now than the oily Gulf, right?
Safer? No, other? Yes. Thank you! BP boss Tony said the same thing a while back. Glad to see you support his statement about other sources of seafood besides our Gulf. Again, enjoy whatever you eat. I will continue to eat the best. I really don't like Thai shrimp, even when I was there...
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2138. SLU
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 66.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367
here's an articles that was published in Thursday's Palm Beach Post (as hyped or useless as it may be):

A geographic area that includes Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast is second only to Miami on a list of major Florida metropolitan areas most vulnerable to strong hurricane winds, according to a Florida State University study.

The study, set to be published in the November issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, ranks a 100-kilometer area centered on Port St. Lucie near the top of a list of 12 areas analyzed under the university's Hurricane Risk Calculator. That area includes almost all populated areas in Palm Beach County, plus the entirety of Martin and St. Lucie counties.

Areas centered on Key West, Cape Coral and Sarasota rounded out the top five on the list of 12 regions, while Tampa, Jacksonville and Tallahassee ranked as the least vulnerable areas of the places studied.

University officials announced the invention of the tool this week. Port St. Lucie leaders say they haven't seen the study, but its findings aren't going to change the hurricane plan they already have in place.

"From a city standpoint, we're not very concerned about it. Rather than feeling like we're the most vulnerable, we feel that we're the most prepared," Port St. Lucie spokeswoman Rita Hart said.

Hart said city officials already stay prepared for possible hurricanes by testing generators year-round, holding a hurricane expo each year and consistently providing residents with tools such as a laminated hurricane preparedness guide available at all city buildings.

In addition, Hart said, department heads throughout the city meet with other community organizations monthly to discuss emergency plans. All city buildings built since Frances and Jeanne hit the Treasure Coast in 2004 have been built to withstand strong hurricane winds, Hart said.

Sharon Rayner, director of emergency services for the North Treasure Coast chapter of the American Red Cross, says her agency's response to hurricane season has always been to adjust to the intensity of each storm.

"No matter where you are on a list, whether you're first or second or last, when a hurricane hits you need to be prepared," Rayner said. "So we're just always prepared."

Geography doctoral student Jill Malmstadt, who created the calculator with help from Professor James B. Elsner and research consultant Thomas H. Jagger, said she encourages the preparedness mindset for all Floridians.

The statistical model, Malmstadt says, is based on "extreme value theory," which unlike most statistical theories evaluates the likelihood of things that don't happen often.

So in this case, Malmstadt said, the calculator only tested vulnerabilities to major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger. Malmstadt, who plans to expand the calculator's use to other states, said she picked the 12 areas in Florida for her study because they were the areas that had the highest populations.

"I don't want someone to say, well, we're number 6 or we're not on the list so we're okay," she said. "As long as you live in Florida, you should be prepared."
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


No problem :) How do you like your Iphone and do you have radarscope for it yet ? Have a great day


I love it. It took some getting used to since I upgraded from a 1998 Nokia candybar. But now that I've got the hang of it, I couldn't imagine being without. It's like a little traveling computer.

What's radarscope? An app?
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2135. ackee
Quoting hurricane556:
the wave southeast of 93L has exhibited an increase in vorticity and lower level convergence has strengthen as well. this could become 94L in the next day.
agree much further south too may not be a fish system if it develops
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2134. mckyj57
Sigh -- this is getting tiresome. You post a promo for James Hansen's book instead of mentioning the unusual cold in the Southern hemisphere that kills scores of people. Doesn't fit with the narrative, I guess.

I think I will take my weather business elsewhere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Ahhh, OK, it is your choice. When the voice in the speaker asks, tell him/her that yes, you do, indeed, want fries with that. In the meantime, Hydrus and I will be enjoying a little bit of heaven. Catsup?


Catsup? With your shrimp? :-) Seriously, though, I tend to agree with what a Louisianan oysterman/crab & shrimp fisherman said on the news a few days ago: "If I put fish in a barrel of water and poured oil and Dove detergent over that, and mixed it up, would you eat that fish?"

You do know there are other safer sources of seafood right now than the oily Gulf, right?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
the wave southeast of 93L has exhibited an increase in vorticity and lower level convergence has strengthen as well. this could become 94L in the next day.
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Quoting truecajun:
I meant to say thanku hardcoreweather


No problem :) How do you like your Iphone and do you have radarscope for it yet ? Have a great day
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Quoting Neapolitan:


I'm not costing people their livelihood; BP did that all on their own. But that's beside the point here; the point is that A) tens of millions of gallons of oil and highly toxic dispersant were pumped into the Gulf in a single location and over a relatively short time, and B) not all of that oil was collected or evaporated or burnt, meaning that there's still a lot of it hanging around out there. My own personal opinion--that is, the opinion that dictates what I eat or don't eat--is that I'm not going to ingest any Gulf seafood until I know that every last drop of that oil and dispersant is gone.

BTW, the testing the FDA did is based in large part on a human "sniff" test. Before I put my money or my health at risk, I'd like something a little more thorough than an annlouncement of "Well, it doesn't smell all that bad." Call me overcautious if you want, but I call my aversion to possibly-carcinogenic chemicals plain smart.
Ahhh, OK, it is your choice. When the voice in the speaker asks, tell him/her that yes, you do, indeed, want fries with that. In the meantime, Hydrus and I will be enjoying a little bit of heaven. Catsup?
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2129. SLU
The wave behind 93L should be called an invest. While it was very "blobbish" last night, it has acquired some excellect cyclonic signature this morning indicative of a system trying to strengthen.

93L is moving through an area of relatively stable air and lower SSTs which explains why it is not generating very vigorous convection. However, as it passes 45w, conditions should continue to improve.

92L is very weak and I believe the NHC has been rather generous to it by maintaining a 10 - 20% chance of development over the last couple of days.

Finally Colin's struggles are indicative of an Atlantic which is not 100% favourable for development as yet. Yet still we are getting several systems trying to form all at once. We do not normally see an explosion of activity until about August 15th to 20th so this kind of early August activity is not really a good sign. We are still about 10 - 15 days away from the climatological detonation of the season.



Member Since: July 13, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 5367


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Neopolitan, Im a little afraid as well. I don't trust the FDA.

Also, It's a shame BP used the dispersants. What they could have cleaned up is now swept under the rug and can't be. It's a shame.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya....94L is out there.....just SE of 93L...its looking very strong but, should move West then NW and probably hit the gap between the 2 highs.

might feel some movement to the N/NW but if it keeps low enough it may squeak just under the split between the two.
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2124. bird72
Quoting JavPR:


something east of the island at 144h...


see your inbox
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I meant to say thanku hardcoreweather
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Quoting TampaSpin:



If you believe in some models yes...here is the NGP model



I would tend to totally throw out the NOGAPS and UKMET until a/the system is actually formed (at least TD if not TS).
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2121. hydrus
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Done!! You're only problem for you is picking the place that can supply all of the above. I'd tell 'ya who we supply, but that would just be wrong...or maybe not (Gulf Coast Seafood)...
I am fricken starving...We have purchased fresh seafood from Gulf Coast before. But there has to be more than one purveyor with the Gulf Coast moniker. Colin is looking anemic....lol
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Quoting RipplinH2O:
Didn't say no oil in the gulf, said no oil sighted in Choctaw Bay, surface or otherwise. It's a shame you feel that way. You're costing people their livelyhood. The limited product being delivered is tested beyond code and IS SAFE. You're not helping with speculation, and ONLY speculation, that something may be amiss...


I'm not costing people their livelihood; BP did that all on their own. But that's beside the point here; the point is that A) tens of millions of gallons of oil and highly toxic dispersant were pumped into the Gulf in a single location and over a relatively short time, and B) not all of that oil was collected or evaporated or burnt, meaning that there's still a lot of it hanging around out there. My own personal opinion--that is, the opinion that dictates what I eat or don't eat--is that I'm not going to ingest any Gulf seafood until I know that every last drop of that oil and dispersant is gone.

BTW, the testing the FDA did is based in large part on a human "sniff" test. Before I put my money or my health at risk, I'd like something a little more thorough than an annlouncement of "Well, it doesn't smell all that bad." Call me overcautious if you want, but I call my aversion to possibly-carcinogenic chemicals plain smart.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
Thank you hydrus.
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Quoting hydrus:
Tell ya what. We will take ten pounds of the Pinks( 5 to eat when we get there, and 5 for the freeze) and some pan seared snapper w/o-rings and cole slaw. Ice cold beer.
Done!! You're only problem is picking the place that can supply all of the above. I'd tell 'ya who we supply, but that would just be wrong...or maybe not (Gulf Coast Seafood)...
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Quoting truecajun:
I'm on my iPhone so I can't see read the models very well. Are there 2 that have 93 taking a dive south then west or is it just one? Which one(s)? Thanks!


Just 2

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2116. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:
93L looking better and better. Depression status later, I'm a-thinkin'...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES13452010219L2xvz2.jpg
Not a lot in the way of convection with 93. Nice looking swirl to it.
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Redfish is the BEST! Grill it on the pit in foil with veggies or cook it up in a courtbouillion. Yuuuumy!
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TAFB at 12:15 UTC gave 93L a T1.0, so still some work to do. Link
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2112. hydrus
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Come on down...how many pounds do you want? We got crabs too (note to Louisiana people, yes, your crabs are bigger)
Tell ya what. We will take ten pounds of the Pinks( 5 to eat when we get there, and 5 for the freeze) and some pan seared snapper w/o-rings and cole slaw. Ice cold beer.
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93L looking better and better. Depression status later, I'm a-thinkin'...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES13452010219L2xvz2.jpg
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13805
AL, 04, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 292N, 665W, 35, 1008, TS
AL, 92, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 173N, 883W, 25, 1009, DB
AL, 93, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 188N, 388W, 25, 1011, DB
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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