Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Weak steering currents. There is still motion, it is just much slower than 6 hours ago.



that would give it more time overe water
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Quoting Tazmanian:
09 why did 92L stall?
Weak steering currents. There is still motion, it is just much slower than 6 hours ago.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1307. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
92L is fading quickly you can clearly see it on IR sat
<>img src="http://" alt="" />
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09 why did 92L stall?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ROFL, I wonder how the blog would be that day!


It's a shame we can't roll over the storms to see what Cat they might be. Does he go realistic or Hollywood (Cat 7s and whatnot...)?
Member Since: May 19, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 481
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Why don't you email the NHC LOL.


I've tried..... they blocked my email addy! LOL (j/k)

Ah...... Friday night, have a few brews, couple sips of Whiskey, stirring the pot, trying to have a little fun! :)

It's all good! :)
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Quoting amd:
after looking at the CIMSS maps, I know why 92L looks so well, but has no reflection on the surface. Basically, just about all of the activity so far was caused by plenty of upper level divergence. Notice the utter lack of lower level convergence.



The convection is new. You have to keep in mind that the divergence aloft is what lowers surface pressures. If surface pressures aren't lowered the atmosphere isn't going to correspond with convergence in the lower levels. Wait another couple of hours for surface pressures to lower, if they don't, chances for development decrease since there is no convergence (what enhances convection) and pressures are high (the reason that there is no convergence).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Preliminary satellite derived winds on AL92


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1299. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/93/L
MARK
16.47N/36.13W
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Hey, thelmores-

Hope your Gamecocks are ready for when Southern Miss comes to town on September 2! LOL. Gonna be a great football game!

But so I don't get banned...

92L is trying to organize something at the surface. Whether or not steering gives it enough time to get it together is anyone's guess.


Southerm Miss coach has stuck his foot in his mouth..... time for his rear to pay the price! USC by at least 17!

I agree with your assessment of 92L......

Considering we have seen stranger things...... until the COC for 92L is over the Yucatan..... better watch close...... for me, this is as exciting as it gets..... I see a system developing right in front of my eyes, when most have dismissed the possibility!

Not saying the NHC is wrong...... but my assessment far exceeds 10%!

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no update on 92L and 93L?

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1296. amd
after looking at the CIMSS maps, I know why 92L looks so well, but has no reflection on the surface. Basically, just about all of the activity so far was caused by plenty of upper level divergence. Notice the utter lack of lower level convergence.



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Quoting crashingwaves:
I don't post all the time on here. I was posting on storm 2010 until some poster decided to ruin them with name calling ect. The moderators took it down because of it. But anyway I like coming to a forum where people actually gather to talk about the weather.



i see and welcome too the blogs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1293. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

04L/TS/C
MARK
28.33N/66.58W
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Meh, nuthin' much at 925mb.



If it starts regaining convection, I'll be a little more impressed. That would tell me there is convergence going on at the surface and that something is really trying to form. These mid-level features like to blow up convection and then die without reforming.
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I don't post all the time on here. I was posting on storm 2010 until some poster decided to ruin them with name calling ect. The moderators took it down because of it. But anyway I like coming to a forum where people actually gather to talk about the weather.
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how did 92L stall 09??
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
Quoting thelmores:
For nothing going on at the surface...... it damn sure looks like something is going on at the surface! LOL

Who you gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes? LOL



Why don't you email the NHC LOL.
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1287. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/92/L
MARK
17.23N/84.11W
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Meh, nuthin' much at 925mb.




how about 93L?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1285. robj144
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Now I know why I didn't understand summing the squares lol I thought it meant for storms individually rather than all the storms in a year.

EDIT: And considering all storms obviously only have one 1 minute sustained estimated wind speed reading at those six-hour intervals...


Sorry to correct myself and potentially make it more confusing, but I understand it better now. Supposed we have one storm that has just formed. In the first six hour interval, supposed it's max. winds after six hours is 35 knots. Then after 12 hours, it's 50 knots, and then after 18 hours, it's 70 knots. Then for the first 18 hours of this one storm it's ACE would be (35^2 50^2 70^2)/10^4 = 0.86 knot^2, for the first 18 hours of the storm. You keep doing this for the entire duration of the storm which will give you an index for that one storm. You do this for every storm of the year and them up, and that's your ACE for the entire year. I believe this is correct now.
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Meh, nuthin' much at 925mb.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting thelmores:
For nothing going on at the surface...... it damn sure looks like something is going on at the surface! LOL

Who you gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes? LOL



Sure looks funny for a NOTHING!!!!
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Quoting crashingwaves:
Taz, why did you think I was JFV?



i was this makeing sure

i ask some time be come i dont see a name that has not evere post on the blogs befor
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1280. Gearsts
Quoting thelmores:
For nothing going on at the surface...... it damn sure looks like something is going on at the surface! LOL

Who you gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes? LOL

Is going poof needs deep convection is still far from TD.
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Taz, why did you think I was JFV?
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Quoting thelmores:
For nothing going on at the surface...... it damn sure looks like something is going on at the surface! LOL

Who you gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes? LOL



Hey, thelmores-

Hope your Gamecocks are ready for when Southern Miss comes to town on September 2! LOL. Gonna be a great football game!

But so I don't get banned...

92L is trying to organize something at the surface. Whether or not steering gives it enough time to get it together is anyone's guess.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


ROFL, I wonder how the blog would be that day!
probably not that busy just about everybody on here would have a storm over their head and no power or internet. Except Levi he is safe in Alaska.
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No Taz! I'm not JFV. Why do you ask?
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The latest infrared images seem to show a well formed 92L :
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb.jpg


The latest infrared video shows a lot of high level outflow too:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html
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1273. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm 04L (COLIN) Warning
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of SAT 07 Aug 2010 00:45:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
93L.INVEST
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
07E.ESTELLE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
98W.INVEST
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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For nothing going on at the surface...... it damn sure looks like something is going on at the surface! LOL

Who you gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes? LOL

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1271. aquak9
Quoting thelmores:
You gonna believe the NHC's drivel..... or are you going to even bother to do you own research?

Look, I am not saying we have a Cat-5 on our hands..... but I have been around the block a few times, and recognize tropical genesis when I see it..... like I said in my ORIGINAL post, the ONLY thing stopping 92L is Land Ho! :)



Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 06 Aug 2010 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in and falling

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.874N 85.059W
Conditions as of:
Fri, 06 Aug 2010 23:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (120°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (114°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.89 in and falling


looking at rainbow, it is really pretty. Thank goodness for it's location, and westward-ho.

If it was anywhere else...oh man...
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Now I know why I didn't understand summing the squares lol I thought it meant for storms individually rather than all the storms in a year.

EDIT: And considering all storms obviously only have one 1 minute sustained estimated wind speed reading at those six-hour intervals...
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1269. robj144
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Oh wow, much easier when someone experienced can explain well! Thanks! But it said something about it is updated or calculated every six hours, so if it does that for uhmm.. 6 hours.. then the ACE would be 3.62?


Yes, if the storms were active for twelve hours. I just posted a correction to my explanation a little while ago.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Oh, what the heck. I WU-mailed it to the three who asked, but here it is for all to, er, enjoy. :-\

OHMIGOD!!!!!


ROFL, I wonder how the blog would be that day!
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1267. amd
92L's moisture covers up the entire western caribbean, which is remarkable because at this time last night, there was almost zero clouds associated with it.

In terms of any possible turning, I agree with the NHC for now. I don't see a surface low yet (or much turning for that matter), although the cloud structure on IR looks interesting. This system could be one of those classic cases where frictional effects from the Yucatan could cause a surface low to spin up as 92L makes landfall on the Yucatan.

Also, timing will be key with 92L. If it can take advantage of 1 more D-Max before landfall on the Yucatan, it could develop a low pressure that way as well.

All of this is JMHO.
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Quoting robj144:


Taz, don't take this wrong way, but please tell me you're not an editor. :)



lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115074
1265. robj144
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Every six hours, so if that scenerio was for 1 day = 1.81*4


That's right, I just posted a comment to correct myself.
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Quoting robj144:


The sigma means to sum or add for all the storms and summing the squares means first squaring the max wind for each storm and then adding it. For example, from what I understand that is, if the three storms had max. winds of 50, 75, and 100 Knots, the ACE would be (50^2 +75^2 +100^2)/10^4 = 1.81.


Oh wow, much easier when someone experienced can explain well! Thanks! But it said something about it is updated or calculated every six hours, so if it does that for uhmm.. 6 hours.. then the ACE would be 3.62?
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1263. robj144
Quoting Tazmanian:
we may see two new TD be for the weekend is out


Taz, don't take this wrong way, but please tell me you're not an editor. :)
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Oh, what the heck. I WU-mailed it to the three who asked, but here it is for all to, er, enjoy. :-\

OHMIGOD!!!!!
not liking the look of Oscar. Hope nothing like this never happens. Pretty scary!
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Quoting robj144:


The sigma means to sum or add for all the storms and summing the squares means first squaring the max wind for each storm and then adding it. For example, from what I understand that is, if the three storms had max. winds of 50, 75, and 100 Knots, the ACE would be (50^2 +75^2 +100^2)/10^4 = 1.81.


Every six hours, so if that scenerio was for 1 day = 1.81*4
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Might start turning to the north, since it stalled.
Steering is weak, but it suggests WNW/NW motion.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1259. robj144
Quoting robj144:


The sigma means to sum or add for all the storms and summing the squares means first squaring the max wind for each storm and then adding it. For example, from what I understand that is, if the three storms had max. winds of 50, 75, and 100 Knots, the ACE would be (50^2 +75^2 +100^2)/10^4 = 1.81.


Sorry, to correct myself, you need to sum the maximum speed every six hours for each storm, so it's a little more involved. Just learned about this myself five minutes ago...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.