Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hurrkat05:
no being real taz thats what im doing ...a downcaster would not predict 12 storms to me that would be and average year and if we get that we will be fortunate...


I think the images of 92L are great. Imagine if it wasn't face to face with the Yucatan!

two Non Words I learned of tonight fit right in:

Griefer: Someone who spends their online time harassing others

Nonversation: A worthless conversation, wherein nothing is explained or otherwise elaborated upon

who knew AOL could be so informative!
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1384. BahaHurican 1:55 AM GMT on August 07,2010

Back on the 7/24 my Trend Micro found the JS_Webstart virus while I was blogging here.
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1407. SLU
Goodnight all.

I see that Colin has made a speedy recovery and that 92L is back on life support.

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Alright. I have another question lol. If a 35 knot storm is designated at lets say... 5AM EDT... would the ACE be calculated at 5AM right on the six-hour interval, or 11AM after six hours has passed since it was designated a 35 knot storm?


Nevermind I figured it out myself. It's the former. I used Bonnie as an example. Bonnie was only a 35 kt storm from 11PM July 22 to 5AM July 23 and from 5AM July 23 to 11AM July 23. So it was technically only a 35 knot storm for 12 hours, but when calculating ACE you count the six hour interval that it hits 35 knots. In this case that was 11PM July 22.. Of course this is assuming the .37 on wikipedia for bonnie is correct (which I assume is, it looks correct)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Dead on? You said no storm until August 10th, and of there one was going to develop it was going to be in the GOMEX. Well guess what, reality check, we have had 4 tropical cyclones this year. Please go to weather chat, I'll be more than happy to have a discussion with you.




no no better yet 09 whats send a few bare in his home may be that will wake him up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Colin is trying to battle the wind shear hard, 93L is trying to fire consolidating convection and 92L's structure looks 100 times better tonight, just need convection to fire up by DMAX, then I will get interested, good night everyone.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
cyber teddy pull some information posts i wrote ok no one elses please you are only being a real dunce doing this...i have been dead on this year pull my posts from the beginningof the year you ashamed to do that lol...you are a real trip.
Dead on? You said no storm until August 10th, and if there one it was going to develop it was going to be develop in the GOMEX. Well guess what, reality check, we have had 4 tropical cyclones this year. Please go to tropics chat, I'll be more than happy to have a discussion with you.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting JLPR2:


I believe Alex became a TD a tad farther to the east than 92L

Hello Everyone! :D


Not by much.
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Quoting thelmores:


YOU BLEW IT!

you should have said "pin-hole eye!" LOL



lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:



hey look i see an eye


YOU BLEW IT!

you should have said "pin-hole eye!" LOL
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92L looks good, but convection is at a minimum.
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whats have a bare party
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Alex hadn't developed at this location yet either. Wasn't he closer to the Yucatan when he became a TD ?
Yes it did...Alex developed further east than the current location of 92L.
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Bret (05) was very similar to 92L, its interesting to compare.
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hurrkat, if your out there please.. join my in weather chat for a discussion.
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1390. JLPR2
Quoting thelmores:


Best looking Nothing I have ever seen! LOL




post the WV and you'll think otherwise XD

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1389. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


04L/TS/C
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Evening all. I posted an entry on my blog about the classifications of the storms now vs. 2005. Take a look and see what you think.

The basis of this was Dr. Masters comment about the number of named storms in 1995 and 2005 vs this year. It made me wonder about the debate that goes on regarding the standards for classifications then and now.

I believe that storms were more likely in the past to be named then they are now. I also think that this has a lot to do with the technology that is available now, and with the fact that the forecasters have a much better idea of what will eventually form, and what does not form.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Looking at this image it looks like a possible circulation exactly where you pointed out.


Best looking Nothing I have ever seen! LOL


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hurrkat in 2008 under the alas stormkat's prediction.

67. stormkat 9:40 AM CDT on July 08, 2008 Hide this comment.
i told you guys last thursday bertha was going to be a fish storm..i told you the strong trough off the east coast would cause a major weakness in the high and bertha would pass 200 miles to the east of bermuda...well jw what happen to the storm that you said was going to develop in the leeward islands...thats the reason why i do my own forecasting i dont need these computers...you guys think they are gospel..if you continue to follow them you will very seldom be right in a forecast...jw it looks like you really bombed on that one but like i said we all makes mistakes..i was right on with bertha and my forecast for the rest of the month is no tropical storms the shear has kicked in all over...guys like i said all along the famous dr gray blew it again this year and he will have to revise his forecast from 15 named storms to 7 if he gets that many...the dust is starting to develop on the coast of africa so that could kill anything from developing ...my latest data shows the tropics to be very quiet for july unless a cold front heads into the GOM then we will have to watch it closely...but thats not expected to happen guys...i will keep you informed and ill be back in 3 weeks unless something develops in the GOM...if you guys would like to email me feel free to do so...i will answer any questions you might have...im here to help you...stormkat

Also..

my friend all i know its august 10 and we havent had one storm this month ...you need to go back to post 1332 on aug 6 or 7 and read what i said..i have been right on my man...im not trying to out due anyone just stating the facts...you need to read my posts i said ed would form before the computers even picked it up...my friend if you keep following storm w you are going to go down the tubes just like he does...i never seen someone that changes his forecast as much as he does...if you look in the atlantic midway between the the african coast and the lesser antilles there is nothing but a huge pool of dry air my friend so lets not count your chickens before they hatch..i upped my prediction to 9 storms up from 2 from my first prediction...i can tell you this big guy dr gray who i respect very much went way overboard on his prediction this year..it will not happen and like i said we are lucky to squeeze out 9 storms this year...shear and dry air will rule the cape verde season...dont say i didnt tell you...the only activity i think will come from the gulf due to these early cool fronts already starting to come down...i hope i opened your eyes up to a few things...StormKat

Obviously, this guy cannot be taken seriously and has never once been right in his life.
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Hmmm.... Norton antivirus is telling me that Wunderground is unsafe because of the following:

Viruses (what's this?)
Threats found: 1
Here is a complete list:

Threat Name: Adware.ADH
Location: http://www.wunderground.com/windowsinstall/install_whas11.exe




Embedded Link To Malicious Site (what's this?)
Threats found: 1
Here is a complete list:

Threat Name: Embedded link to malicious site wunderground.com
Location: http://www.wunderground.com/US/TX/Amarillo.html


Anybody know anything about this? It's not like I've had any problems blogging or anything.....
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Alex Developed further East
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1382. JLPR2
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Alex hadn't developed at this location yet either. Wasn't he closer to the Yucatan when he became a TD ?


I believe Alex became a TD a tad farther to the east than 92L

Hello Everyone! :D
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Quoting hydrus:
Very good point.
Thanks.
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Colin approaching Bermuda......

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1377. hydrus
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Alex hadn't developed at this location yet either. Wasn't he closer to the Yucatan when he became a TD ?
Very good point.
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1376. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)


the fading continues with clearing taking place
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes, but you don't see a major hurricane with absolutely favorable conditions around itself (like 92L has) just suddenly collapse in thunderstorm activity as 92L just did.
Alex hadn't developed at this location yet either. Wasn't he closer to the Yucatan when he became a TD ?
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Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
all most 10pm on the e coast
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92l completely disappeared last night and blew up today. i think it was erika that a lot of people kept killing and she just kept coming back:)
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Quoting stormpetrol:

That is pattern with this system at nighttime, possible circulation at 17/84.5w, we'll see what tomorrow brings, I still think it has potential as it will probably meander over water another day or two.
i agree. i have seen that a bunch of times where the storm dies down at night and blows up during the day. i wonder if it has something to do with the heat of the day?:)
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Not even a major hurricane can maintain great convection constantly.
Yes, but you don't see a major hurricane with absolutely favorable conditions around itself (like 92L has) just suddenly collapse in thunderstorm activity as 92L just did.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Looking at this image it looks like a possible circulation exactly where you pointed out.



heh that looks more like a TS
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1365. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
INV/93/L
16.30N/36.02W
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Quoting stormpetrol:

That is pattern with this system at nighttime, possible circulation at 17/84.5w, we'll see what tomorrow brings, I still think it has potential as it will probably meander over water another day or two.


Looking at this image it looks like a possible circulation exactly where you pointed out.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



yes but its looks march better
Sure the structure looks good, but that's about the only thing that looks good about it right now.
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Not even a major hurricane can maintain great convection constantly.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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