Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting PtownBryan:
I am starting to feel this year is going to be a bust. Waves are slow to develop, keep encountering too much dry air and shear, and take forever to get where they are going(just threw that in cause it is annoying! lol). Wonder if we will even have one decent looking storm this year. Alex was the best of course by far but even Alex was ragged.
I'm going to pull a "StormW":

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1455. Relix
I like reading hurrkat. His forecasts are so idiotic they just relax me. Hopefully he isn't banned. Also, if you people are taking him seriously you need a chill pill. It's just a 12 year troll looking for attention, but at least he's funny with them in a way. =P
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Quoting Tazmanian:



reported


Mellow Taz
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92L is one deceitful system, I'll check in tomorrow
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Wow. The blog is very interesting tonight. Too bad it doesn't have much to do with the tropics :)
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1450. Patrap
Presslord on TV tonight with the New Portlight Response Trailer and more.

Note the wunderground Logos too.






TravelMets's WunderBlog



TravelMets Podcast with the Portlight Info as well,from yesterday
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Satellite imagery suggests that upper level conditions are indeed becoming more favorable. Currently Colin is in the process of developing a CDO, which of course is an indication of a intensifying system. Now take a look at water vapor. You can tell that the TUTT fractured into 2 ULL's ones stationary over the Bahamas while the other is backing off towards the NE. This will allow for ridging to develop in the upper levels, allowing for favorable upper level conditions, thus propelling Colin to intensify.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
I am starting to feel this year is going to be a bust. Waves are slow to develop, keep encountering too much dry air and shear, and take forever to get where they are going(just threw that in cause it is annoying! lol). Wonder if we will even have one decent looking storm this year. Alex was the best of course by far but even Alex was ragged.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I haven't had a nice downpour in over 2 weeks in Florida. I am starting to think Georgia stole all of it.


We've gotta keep those thirsty Atlanta people happy. :P
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Quoting SavannahStorm:
I'm about to get smacked... surprised i haven't heard any warnings yet.



I haven't had a nice downpour in over 2 weeks in Florida. I am starting to think Georgia stole all of it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627
Quoting stormpetrol:
True but even major hurricanes wax & wane. Last night 92L was nothing, today it was the talk of the town :) what will it be tomorrow, just a memory or maybe something to remember, who knows?

Sorry Taz I meant to quote MH09 and quoted you, but basically you're in agreement with me.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


thanks, I am on an iPad and the link, image, etc. buttons evidently are flash based and don't work on iPad.... when I look at the link I copied, it looks like a space crept in after petermann


I think it was just missing a "/1" on the end! but really good info. thanks
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I'm about to get smacked... surprised i haven't heard any warnings yet.

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1436. SLU
Meanwhile, a quiet Eastern Pacific normally means a noisy Atlantic.

Excerpt from the Governing body:

AFTER A RATHER LONG...PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED...BREAK IN TROPICAL
STORM ACTIVITY IN THE HEART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...
ESTELLE HAS FORMED.



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Quoting Tazmanian:



yes but its looks march better
True but even major hurricanes wax & wane. Last night 92L was nothing, today it was the talk of the town :) what will it be tomorrow, just a memory or maybe something to remember, who knows?
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Nevermind I figured it out myself. It's the former. I used Bonnie as an example. Bonnie was only a 35 kt storm from 11PM July 22 to 5AM July 23 and from 5AM July 23 to 11AM July 23. So it was technically only a 35 knot storm for 12 hours, but when calculating ACE you count the six hour interval that it hits 35 knots. In this case that was 11PM July 22.. Of course this is assuming the .37 on wikipedia for bonnie is correct (which I assume is, it looks correct)


Close

They actually use synoptic time, which is the start of the forecast cycle (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z). If you look at the best track data for Bonnie, it became a TS 2010072300 and then back to a TD 2010072318 so for ACE purposes a total of 12 hours.
AL 03 2010072218 BEST 0 222N 749W 30 1007 TD
AL 03 2010072300 BEST 0 231N 759W 35 1007 TS
AL 03 2010072306 BEST 0 238N 778W 35 1008 TS
AL 03 2010072312 BEST 0 248N 797W 35 1008 TS
AL 03 2010072315 BEST 0 254N 803W 35 1008 TS
AL 03 2010072318 BEST 0 258N 811W 30 1008 TD

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Quoting hurrkat05:
miami if yu call colin a storm then you are a real joke..colin is barely hanging on and i expect it be downgraded to a tropical depression by saturday morning


Well I believe that Colin will still become a hurricane before it becomes extra-tropical....
Add I also don't believe it will be downgraded either......

but hey, what do I know..... I am just a red-neck from South Carolina! LOL
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Quoting hurrkat05:
miami if yu call colin a storm then you are a real joke..colin is barely hanging on and i expect it be downgraded to a tropical depression by saturday morning...the only true storm we will see this year we already saw alex..we may see a few really ramp up in the gom but thats why im still predicting 12 storms...18+ is simply a joke and these professionals are really looking like fools tonight because i see shear coming in for at least the next 6 days...that will put us in a really bad hostile enviroment for storms...like i said and ill saty this one more time for you miami danielle will develop in the gom in 5-7 days not off the coast of dry aired africa...
You make me laugh. Are you in any way associated with Jerry Seinfeld?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting RMM34667:


I copied and pasted your URL and it didn't work.. So I googled it.. LINK
thanks


thanks, I am on an iPad and the link, image, etc. buttons evidently are flash based and don't work on iPad.... when I look at the link I copied, it looks like a space crept in after petermann
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
1427. SLU
This guy's nuts.
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Quoting SLU:
Whatever hurrkat says, just expect the absolute opposite.


+10000 LOL
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1424. SLU
Whatever hurrkat says, just expect the absolute opposite.
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Our local - Channel 6 - Beaumont,TX

The only system to watch for the Gulf in the tropics is an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is moving to the west-northwest and will likely move across the Yucatan into the southwestern Gulf this weekend. However, high pressure in the upper levels will prevent this system from moving to the Texas coast and keep it well to our southwest.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting hurrkat05:
miami if yu call colin a storm then you are a real joke..colin is barely hanging on and i expect it be downgraded to a tropical depression by saturday morning...the only true storm we will see this year we already saw alex..we may see a few really ramp up in the gom but thats why im still predicting 12 storms...18+ is simply a joke and these professionals are really looking like fools tonight because i see shear coming in for at least the next 6 days...that will put us in a really bad hostile enviroment for storms...like i said and ill saty this one more time for you miami danielle will develop in the gom in 5-7 days not off the coast of dry aired africa...




Lack of patience, ect.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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1418. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Jeez hurrkat, there is too much to explain
1) you said in mid-July no named storms until August 10th, we've had two.
2) You said TD3 would not develop into Bonnie
3) you said Bonnie would explode in the Gulf
4) you said 2008 would featured 10 storms
5) you said 2007 would feature less than 10 storms
6) you said Hurricane Dean would curve out to sea
7) you said Felix would not develop
8) you said Ike would curve out to sea
9) you said Karen would be a serious threat to the Caribbean.

And the list goes on and on.


lol. talk about wishful downcasting.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Tow this to the gulf to cool the sst....


An ice chunk four times the size of Manhattan has broken off of Greenland's Petermann glacier—possibly the biggest glacier collapse in recorded history, scientists announced Friday...

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/08/100806-ice-chunk-island-greenland-glacier-petermann -biggest-science/


I copied and pasted your URL and it didn't work.. So I googled it.. LINK
thanks
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1415. JLPR2
Quoting thelmores:


OH SURE! BE THAT WAY! JUST RUIN IT ALL! LOL

seriously...... if 92L had another day over water...... still has a little time..... but with a lack of any convection, just a bunch of rotating mid-level clouds at the moment.


XD LOL
Yep, needs time and fortunately it doesn't have it. :D
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Jeez hurrkat, there is too much to explain
1) you said in mid-July no named storms until August 10th, we've had two.
2) You said TD3 would not develop into Bonnie
3) you said Bonnie would explode in the Gulf
4) you said 2008 would featured 10 storms
5) you said 2007 would feature less than 10 storms
6) you said Hurricane Dean would curve out to sea
7) you said Felix would not develop
8) you said Ike would curve out to sea
9) you said Karen would be a serious threat to the Caribbean.

And the list goes on and on.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627
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1412. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Tow this to the gulf to cool the sst....


An ice chunk four times the size of Manhattan has broken off of Greenland's Petermann glacier%u2014possibly the biggest glacier collapse in recorded history, scientists announced Friday...

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2010/08/100806-ice-chunk-island-greenland-glacier-petermann -biggest-science/
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
Quoting JLPR2:


post the WV and you'll think otherwise XD



OH SURE! BE THAT WAY! JUST RUIN IT ALL! LOL

seriously...... if 92L had another day over water...... still has a little time..... but with a lack of any convection, just a bunch of rotating mid-level clouds at the moment.
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Quoting hurrkat05:
no being real taz thats what im doing ...a downcaster would not predict 12 storms to me that would be and average year and if we get that we will be fortunate...


I think the images of 92L are great. Imagine if it wasn't face to face with the Yucatan!

two Non Words I learned of tonight fit right in:

Griefer: Someone who spends their online time harassing others

Nonversation: A worthless conversation, wherein nothing is explained or otherwise elaborated upon

who knew AOL could be so informative!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.