Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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It's funny that people were wondering why some of the old bloggers don't come on anymore. They do actually, just not in the evenings. Thanks to all of you who brave the frustration and provide me and the rest of the lurkers (and occasional posters) on here with our evening information!
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1558. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PsychicMaria:
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WTF IS THIS
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting Levi32:
New track takes Colin's center right next to the west side of Bermuda....pretty much the worst track for them.



Good thing this isn't Fabian.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


You got it, he is just a repeater LOL
Sure am. Good night everyone. Oh by the way...Poof!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1555. JLPR2
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


You got it, he is just a repeater LOL


If he's a repeater then he is able to explain what he repeats nicely.
He knows waaaay more than me and I have been around for three years, I would be an old man when I know as much as him about weather.
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Quoting Chicklit:
Hey, Chick. I keep looking at that little area just behind 93L and wondeing if it's still got any spin left to it....

Seems like the Twaves are rolling a bit slower this year than the last two seasons...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
1549. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Just a young kid who repeats everything that he hears. Listen to the old time bloggers if you want accurate info. He's been on my ignore list since the day he arrived and was every other post. I may get 24 hours in the hole for this, but it;s worth it


silence

lol
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1548. EricSFL
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
more to the south in 48 hours.


Interesting since the models took it northwestward...
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I'm not so sure that its "conservative" vs. a more standard set of characteristics, and the technology to measure those characteristics.

I still remember when a warning was 150 mile area, and now they can narrow that to 75 miles. Lots of learning going on.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
looking at 93L, I have to agree with the comments made by kman, the area further to the south and east; may indeed become the dominant area of development


93L's main problem is its shear size. It appears to be developing multiple, competing centers. Heck, it almost looks like monsoonal development out in the ITCZ.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627
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looking forward to school starting back!
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Whats up Baha?

S.FL and bahamas have been safe so far this year.

Lets hope it lasts.
U know what they say.... Prepare for the worst, pray for the best.

So far, so good. However, I'm realistically expecting TC/Bahamas/S or C FL to get something between the 15th of this month and the 15th October. I'm just hoping it's nothing too horrible...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
1540. Levi32
New track takes Colin's center right next to the west side of Bermuda....pretty much the worst track for them.

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Quoting weatherman12345:
20k of vertical shear
What are you talking about?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
looking at 93L, I have to agree with the comments made by kman, the area further to the south and east; may indeed become the dominant area of development
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1537. Levi32
Quoting weatherman12345:

ITS GETTING SHEARED THE HECK OUT OF TONIGHT


It's not getting sheared. Dry air is its problem.
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Quoting BDAwx:
Bermuda Weather service has gusts up to 70mph in the forecast for Saturday evening. :(


My kind of weather. :P

No but seriously, I hope you guys down there stay safe. Good luck.
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Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Not!


not what?
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1532. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Wow. People must be very bored to wasting so many blog messages on HK.... then again it's Friday night, and I'm surprised to see this many bloggers on here in the first place.

LOL


there consumed by it
we are all here to work together
for one goal thats for the best
possible information out there
nothing more nothing less but
at times like this it
becomes more of a drama forecast
then a weather forecast and it
degenerates the site into
nothing more then gibberish
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting zoomiami:
Hey Orca, see you swimming around!
That halo's obscuring his view of things.... lol

U still have the humor in comments, Orca? I'm afraid to go over there because the last time I nearly injured myself....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi RMM, haven't seen you in a while.


Life gets in the way sometimes! But sunny skies here in Tampa Bay these days (wicked hot too)!
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1529. JLPR2
Quoting weatherman12345:

ITS GETTING SHEARED THE HECK OUT OF 20K wind


eh?
great anticlone over that one
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1466. zoomiami

Re the 1995/2005 storms... some interesting ideas in ur blog. Wonder if pple's comments about NHC being more conservative these days actually might turn out to have some basis in fact....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
N.E Gulf development next week??

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wind shear is 20kt right now overe 93L un less it see some in going on with it by AM it looks ike it done

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
Nice post patrap showing true American can do spirit. I especially like broadcast from Sullivan's Island. Long live the Irish or Erin Go Bragh.
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Quoting will45:
well said he is soo much better off in here than roaming the streets. He is very good at what he does and is a good resource for the blog


exactly!!
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Just my guess that storm top is a regular on the blog under a different name. I thought i remembered that being discussed when he first appeared but I may be mistaken.
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Colin may not be a fish storm because it will affect Bermuda, but cannot find anything interesting about this system. So shoot me.
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.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
Wow. People must be very bored to wasting so many blog messages on HK.... then again it's Friday night, and I'm surprised to see this many bloggers on here in the first place.

LOL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
1513. will45
well said he is soo much better off in here than roaming the streets. He is very good at what he does and is a good resource for the blog
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
1512. BDAwx
Bermuda Weather service has gusts up to 70mph in the forecast for Saturday evening. :(
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Not a bad blowup over the COC of Colin.


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23627

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 20N34W 14N37W 7N41W...MOVING WESTWARD 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH HIGH VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. BROAD SURFACE/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DERIVED WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 43W. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL ORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.