Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

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A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Heck Colin might just miss Bermuda on the East side of Bermuda......I could not understand how some had Colin coming toward the ConUs.

I posted the track of Colin on July 29th....came very close i believe....sometimes one gets lucky i guess. One can also see the track on that date of 92L!



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurrkat05:
yes i can tell you for sure texas will have no more tropical activity this year it has to do woth how the azore -bermuda highis setting up teaxas will always be in the clear..extreme slight possibility to the upper texascoast i...


now there is a responsible forecast..
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1655. NotJFV
Quoting CybrTeddy:


post 1240.

OMG thats the best ever!!
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1651. EricSFL
Quoting CybrTeddy:


post 1240.


LOL
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Quoting PsychicMaria:


HurrKat05 - Thank you for your interest! As we near the peak of this 2010 season, we will face an extremely active Cape Verde season. For the remainder of August (as depicted in my map) we will see 3 more named storms, all of which will be hurricanes, including TWO major hurricanes. For September, we will see a staggering total of 10 named storms, 3 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of which will be major. As for October, my extrasensory perception is not in its correct state as of yet, however it will be within the next few weeks.

U.S. Mainland to be Affected Through September:

1. Florida's; with emphasis on the East coast & Panhandle.
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. U.S. Gulf Coast; not including Texas with emphasis on Alabama & Mississippi.


Are there Psychic Models for hurrican season? Is that what your waiting on for September?
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Quoting btwntx08:
no tx is not in the clear


I know....I guess we will see come September and October.
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1648. robj144
Quoting Krycek1984:


That's just absolutely too precious. I'm so glad we've been graced by the presence of a psychic ::rolls eyes::


As long as she can email me the powerball numbers, I'm fine with it. :)
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


What is the Meaning of Life?

=)
Wake up, be healthy, have a bowl of Cocoa Krispies and get back to me tomorrow.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


oh great...so TX is in the clear then....


Yes, as far as August-September goes.
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Quoting TampaSpin:




Classic example of a sheared system trying to intensify in the face of shear but does appear to be abating now (the COC has been mostly under the convection for the past 6 hours)
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24200
1644. NotJFV
hello all... how do I change my settings so that all or mastly all comments arent hidden? thanks in advance for the help
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yup. I think sometimes people forget about Bermuda.
Only some people. U know Bahamian and Bermudian pple, we got links.... [gotta know ur history]. Plus Bermuda is the island hit by a hurricane in Shakespeare [allegedly in The Tempest]. I just hope this little window of opportunity for Colin doesn't turn into a shipwrecking event for BDA....

Quoting TexasGulf:


I read the article. National Geographic didn't say anything about the glacier moving faster than previously, or that the glacier was melting faster than expected. This was an ice shelf. It was bound to break off sooner or later. It just happened to do it in one big piece instead of 20 little pieces.

They did say it was the largest break-off of a glacier in 'recorded history', but then we've only been recording such things since the late 1960's and the age of satellites. Other than that, it is the largest one we KNOW of before that, but it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

I didn't see anything alarmist or really significant about this.
Another site says since 1959 or some such, and sites another shelf breakoff up there that was larger. Also it makes the point that this is large by Artic standards, but by Antartic ones, not so much. For me it's more of a "fitting in with the trend" of the NW passage being open than anything else. And one of those interesting statistics that are just fun to know. Like the Moscow heat wave, one has to wonder whether this is part of a cycle we haven't completely recognised, or part of a larger climatic shift. I agree some change is occurring, but how well we understand the mechanisms I hesitate to speculate....

Quoting sammywammybamy:


I Did some resarch on Bermuda.

Incoming flights to bermuda tommorow are still schedualed.
I wouldn't expect them to close until winds get over a certain point (strong TS, I guess) and I don't believe that's supposed to happen until later in the day, right? or has Colin sped up again?

Anyway, they'd likely cancel if conditions require [most likely in the p.m.] rather than the whole day. Be interesting to see what airlines / the airport is saying in the a.m. .....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22323
1642. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE (EP072010)
3:00 AM UTC August 7 2010
===================================

SUBJECT: "Estelle" Strengthens Further And Continues To Move West Northwestward

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Estelle (1000 hPa) located at 17.2N 106.2W or 155 NM southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
45 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 hrs: 18.3N 109.0W - 60 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
48 hrs: 19.1N 111.3W - 55 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
72 hrs: 19.3N 112.2W - 40 knots (Tropical Cyclone)
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Quoting Chicklit:


where did you get that hat?
My sister gave it to me. I'm not crazy about it. Blows off in the smallest TD. Really kind of an obligation thing to wear it.
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What are the latest models saying for 93L?
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Quoting PsychicMaria:


HurrKat05 - Thank you for your interest! As we near the peak of this 2010 season, we will face an extremely active Cape Verde season. For the remainder of August (as depicted in my map) we will see 3 more named storms, all of which will be hurricanes, including TWO major hurricanes. For September, we will see a staggering total of 10 named storms, 3 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of which will be major. As for October, my extrasensory perception is not in its correct state as of yet, however it will be within the next few weeks.

U.S. Mainland to be Affected Through September:

1. Florida's; with emphasis on the East coast & Panhandle.
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. U.S. Gulf Coast; not including Texas with emphasis on Alabama & Mississippi.


oh great...so TX is in the clear then....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1631. EricSFL
PsychicMaria: I just want to make sure you are not Susan Soltero...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PsychicMaria:


HurrKat05 - Thank you for your interest! As we near the peak of this 2010 season, we will face an extremely active Cape Verde season. For the remainder of August (as depicted in my map) we will see 3 more named storms, all of which will be hurricanes, including TWO major hurricanes. For September, we will see a staggering total of 10 named storms, 3 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of which will be major. As for October, my extrasensory perception is not in its correct state as of yet, however it will be within the next few weeks.

U.S. Mainland to be Affected Through September:

1. Florida's; with emphasis on the East coast & Panhandle.
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. U.S. Gulf Coast; not including Texas with emphasis on Alabama & Mississippi.


That's just absolutely too precious. I'm so glad we've been graced by the presence of a psychic ::rolls eyes::
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LOL.. Now that's entertainment!
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Quoting hurrkat05:
im interested psychic maria what you are thinking this year your number of storms and any us landing hurricanes ...also how many majorhurricanes affect the us mainland....


HurrKat05 - Thank you for your interest! As we near the peak of this 2010 season, we will face an extremely active Cape Verde season. For the remainder of August (as depicted in my map) we will see 3 more named storms, all of which will be hurricanes, including TWO major hurricanes. For September, we will see a staggering total of 10 named storms, 3 tropical storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 of which will be major. As for October, my extrasensory perception is not in its correct state as of yet, however it will be within the next few weeks.

U.S. Mainland to be Affected Through September:

1. Florida's; with emphasis on the East coast & Panhandle.
2. North Carolina
3. South Carolina
4. U.S. Gulf Coast; not including Texas with emphasis on Alabama & Mississippi.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1625. JLPR2
Quoting EricSFL:


Maybe that will be the invest that really devolops. Jasoniswhatever posted the "possible cyclone development" chart showing that the area would be further south than 93L.


ha! XD
Yep and 93L has done an outstanding job clearing dry air and SAL for it.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

using caps and exclamtion points


Hurrikat?
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1621. EricSFL
Quoting JLPR2:


Actually you can follow it all the way from inland in Africa, seems it started to fire convection today again.
Link


Maybe that will be the invest that really devolops. Jasoniswhatever posted the "possible cyclone development" chart showing that the area would be further south than 93L.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Allright, I have a few minutes free. If anyone has any questions, fire away, and I'll do my best to answer.


where did you get that hat?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


lol how do u yell on a blog?


heheh CAPS :)
Evening EDF
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Quoting weatherman12345:

o, ok thanks, ppl were yellin at me like i was crazy


Although the graphic above shows 10kts.......visible surely shows something different as evedent on this loop caused by the ULL to its West.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think its not so much its Bermuda, its the fact that its not a large place like the CONUS. For example, back in '07 I was flipping channels on the TV with a few of my friends and we stopped to watch the 'Tropical update' on BayNews9 and Dean was about to hit the Yucatan as a Category 5. He just says 'well, better them than us right?'. Humberto got more attention than Dean.


Its a pet peeve of mine on here... People calling something a FISH as long as landfall on CONUS is not a direct threat, then its really an irrelevant system, regardless how many people are effected.
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Quoting weatherman12345:

o, ok thanks, ppl were yellin at me like i was crazy


lol how do u yell on a blog?
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Quoting TexasGulf:


I read the article. National Geographic didn't say anything about the glacier moving faster than previously, or that the glacier was melting faster than expected. This was an ice shelf. It was bound to break off sooner or later. It just happened to do it in one big piece instead of 20 little pieces.

They did say it was the largest break-off of a glacier in 'recorded history', but then we've only been recording such things since the late 1960's and the age of satellites. Other than that, it is the largest one we KNOW of before that, but it doesn't mean it didn't happen.

I didn't see anything alarmist or really significant about this.


I thought it was very interesting and I would venture to say it was significant. But I haven't seen anything alarmist mentioned in the article or here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Allright, I have a few minutes free. If anyone has any questions, fire away, and I'll do my best to answer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1610. JLPR2
Quoting JLPR2:
Another interesting area south of the Cape Verde islands.

But Ascat missed it, so unusual right? -.-






Actually you can follow it all the way from inland in Africa, seems it started to fire convection today again.
Link
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i'm sure we'll understand it all better in the morning.
goodnight.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.