Colin ready to re-form; TSR keeps their Atlantic hurricane forecast numbers high

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2010

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The remains of Tropical Storm Colin continue to generate heavy thunderstorm activity over the waters a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the storm is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Despite the high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, Colin's remains have grown more organized during the past day, and a low-level circulation has formed. A pass of the Windsat satellite last night revealed that ex-Colin is already generating tropical storm force winds of 40 mph in isolated regions. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage this morning, and a low level circulation that may or may not persist has formed near 23.5N 65.5W (Figure 1.)

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 10 - 20 knots on Friday. This relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next three days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. A major trough of low pressure will move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the north and cause it to slow down. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 2 pm EDT this afternoon. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains show a low-level circulation, exposed to view, has formed at the edge of a region of heavy thunderstorms.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) a few hundred miles south of Jamaica is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday and the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model is predicting that a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday will develop into a tropical depression early next week. None of the other models is showing any obvious tropical cyclone development over the coming week. The current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Atlantic favors upward motion and enhanced probabilities of tropical storm formation, so it would not be a surprise to see a new tropical depression form next week between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.

TSR keeps their forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season high
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) joins CSU in calling for a very busy Atlantic hurricane season. The latest TSR forecast issued August 4 calls for 17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes, 4.5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 183% of average (assuming an ACE of 101 is average.) These storm numbers are a slight drop from their July 6 forecast of 19.1 named storms, 10.4 hurricanes, and 4.8 intense hurricanes, but this is still a very aggressive forecast. The 50-year average is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 96% chance that this season will have an above-average ACE index, and only 4% chance it will be near normal. TSR rates their skill level for August forecasts as 51% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 64% skill for hurricanes, and 47% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 5.7 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. TSR's skill in making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 19% - 23% above chance. They give an 89% chance that the U.S. landfalling ACE index will be above average. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.8 named storms, 0.8 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for keeping their numbers high: below-average trade winds and near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. TSR expects trade winds in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean) to be 1.53 meters per second (about 3.4 mph) slower than average in this region, which would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up, due to decreased mixing of cold water from the depths and reduced evaporational cooling.

Forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season
Here are the number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecast groups in their late May or early June forecasts:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU COAPS dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

And here are the new late July/early August forecast numbers so far:

15 named storms, 8 hurricanes: FSU COAPS dynamical model (July 15 forecast)
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes, 4.5 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique (Note: TSR had higher numbers of 19.1, 10.4, and 4.8 in their July 6 forecast)

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

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URNT15 KNHC 051836
AF302 0204A INVEST HDOB 18 20100805
182630 2457N 06522W 9918 00182 0127 +228 +177 113038 039 033 000 03
182700 2458N 06521W 9912 00189 0129 +226 +178 115039 043 033 000 03
182730 2459N 06520W 9909 00190 0129 +225 +178 118039 040 033 000 00
182800 2500N 06519W 9916 00187 0131 +224 +178 121039 041 034 000 03
182830 2501N 06518W 9914 00190 0132 +224 +177 124037 039 031 000 00
182900 2502N 06517W 9908 00194 0134 +219 +175 125036 038 031 002 00
182930 2503N 06516W 9917 00189 0137 +203 +173 125034 036 039 004 00
183000 2504N 06515W 9913 00193 0137 +203 +169 117038 041 035 002 00
183030 2505N 06514W 9906 00198 0136 +212 +165 117041 046 036 001 03
183100 2506N 06512W 9914 00192 0138 +205 +162 121046 048 040 001 03
183130 2507N 06511W 9914 00195 0140 +205 +160 119043 045 034 002 03
183200 2509N 06511W 9918 00192 0140 +208 +158 110042 046 037 006 00
183230 2510N 06511W 9915 00196 0140 +214 +157 110043 047 037 001 03
183300 2512N 06511W 9910 00197 0141 +202 +156 103041 044 037 000 03
183330 2513N 06510W 9916 00193 0140 +211 +156 099042 042 035 001 03
183400 2515N 06510W 9917 00192 0140 +224 +155 102041 043 037 001 03
183430 2516N 06509W 9912 00200 0141 +227 +157 105043 044 035 000 03
183500 2518N 06509W 9918 00191 0142 +227 +159 107042 044 036 004 03
183530 2519N 06508W 9912 00201 0143 +221 +162 104040 042 035 000 03
183600 2520N 06508W 9911 00204 0145 +222 +164 106038 041 033 003 00
$$
;

1012.7 mb
(~ 29.91 inHg)

From 121° at 46 knots
(From the ESE at ~ 52.9 mph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF initialized a low pressure center with the CATL disturbance
Hopefully it wakes up the NHC.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ECMWF tries to develop a tropical cyclone in the Gulf.






Yesterday's 12z.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24763
620. Skyepony (Mod)
Cyber~ He was mad that Grace wasn't named sooner. Looked like a little hurricane. I was arguing well persistence cause it had blown up a few hrs before from a naked swirl that had been twirling for days. & well the waters were a few degrees less than the official definition, in the 10th hour NHC finally names it. There really is some gray lines in the changing climate. Grace was another that was really far NE, not where a traditional 'cane is pictured. Something like lower pressure in the basin or a layer of upper shear vented it to give an advantage & lift to pull off the look of a heat pump without the usual minimum requirement.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z ECMWF initialization:



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Quoting sporteguy03:


so every Global model develops it plus HWRF as a bonus seems the next TWO should mention it now.


Track on danielle. if it becomes that looks like it might take the same general path as Colin???
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.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15952
positive nao usually leads to more fish storms(recurvers) as we're seeing w/colin,negative nao favors further westward movement which leads to more landfalls....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Whoa! Look at that, A ECMWF hat trick on the blog. LOL. And they are all at different times.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Drakoen:
Oh and BTW the ECMWF 12z develops Danielle out in the CATL.



any more storms too follow?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115748
The ECMWF initialized a low pressure center with the CATL disturbance
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31596
Maybe they're focused on Colin and 99E rather than the two waves which would make sense as they are in a more immediate position to develop where as the two CV waves aren't as close as developing. Very impressive wave emerging off Africa though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24763
Quoting Drakoen:
Oh and BTW the ECMWF 12z develops Danielle out in the CATL.


Yeah. ECMWF 48 hours:

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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


It means that its been contaminated.

03 = Contaminated
00 = Normal.
Other way around...00 is contaminated, 03 is not.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Levi32:


I never said that you said that.


just let FLdewey think what he wants to, again I am the only one that emailed them. I also never criticized them or was going to criticized them

I just wanted to see what they were thinking about it, of course Dewey will only take a piece of that and turn it into something it is not, it is how he operates, he loves the drama

just stop reacting to him, neither of us need to prove anything to him
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12z ECMWF initialization:



Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15952
ECMWF 12z in 24 hours:

Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31596
ECMWF 12z 48 hours, Colin caught in a trough and is off to the fishes. Danielle is in the Atlantic.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

Quoting Drakoen:
Oh and BTW the ECMWF 12z develops Danielle out in the CATL.

so every Global model develops it plus HWRF as a bonus seems the next TWO should mention it now.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wow! That NAO really tanks! I wouldn't be surprised to see 2 named storms develop in a week of August. We had Colin this first week... could we have Danielle by August 7th-8th?
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Continuing a conversation begun in the last blog 1566
1717 Skyepony "NW passage, almost open [Arctic sea ice map]"
2105 aspectre "As is the NE passage, though sea ice extent has yet to reach the 2003minimum
- - - - - - - - - - link to large map - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - link to large chart
which makes me wonder if the years odd enough to make headlines will soon be the ones in which either the NorthWestPassage or the NorthEastPassage fails to open for regular*shipping from earlyAugust through midOctober.
* Continuously navigable without icebreaker escorts."
2133 Ossgss "Why the discrepancy with the DMI? Melt pools on top of the ice?"

I doubt it. Radar signal-processing can easily discriminate between snow, crustal ice, firn, thick ice, slush, water layering on ice, and deep waters.
Your DMI link states "areas with ice concentration higher than 30% are classified as ice" while NSIDC uses 15% as its parameter for inclusion. And JAXA appears to use yet another (though I can't find what).
There's a large portion of the Arctic in which there is more than 15%coverage but less than 30%coverage by sea ice during winter. NSIDC includes that ice while DMI does not. From comparing the charts, that difference has melted by the end of summer
I'd also guess that part of the discrepancies arise from agencies' use of different parameters for inclusion between sea ice AREA charts and sea ice EXTENT charts.
Then the agencies further confuse the matter with their labeling and chart-sizing practices.
JAXA sea ice area (daily chart)

DMI sea ice extent (daily chart)
-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - NSIDC sea ice extent (monthly chart)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
JAXA sea ice extent chart

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - NSIDC daily sea ice extent chart
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
(Sorry about distortion on the last chart, hadda squeeze it to make the charts easily comparable)
And I think the agencies use different satellites for obtaining their raw data. So I also suspect that the radar frequencies utilized and signal-processing&analysis capabilities differ between those agencies.
Differing frequencies result in different reflection patterns, and differing signal-processing capabilities handle raw data differently. Add independent analyses by those agencies, and there'd better be differences between the results.
Too much similarity would mean that somebody is deliberately screwing with the scientific process.
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Quoting FLdewey:


I didn't say any government agency was unquestionable, those are your words. My comment was more along the lines of people on a weather blog emailing an agency of scientists questioning their judgement. This is not a game to the National Hurricane Center as it is to most on this blog. They're not swayed by where they live, or by how very desperately they want to be "right" on a blog.

Hey people email me all the time telling me how I should write the software they're using. They do this without a good understanding of software development. The emails make me smile, and are usually worth a laugh in the breakroom. ;-)

Hopefully the NHC get's a chuckle out of the inquires.


I never said that you said that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stillwaiting:
funny story,my friends girlfriend was showing me some pictures she took 2 days ago of some nasty looking shelf clouds moving in here in sarasota,she told me they we're because of the "solar storm",pretty funny stuff,I reassured her they were just our usual afteronoon seabreeze storms,to much "2012" I guess!!!,lol


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting neonlazer:
Wish i understood what those graphs mean..lol(like the wind is disturbed or something..)

Doesnt the 03 at the end of the flight messages mean something?


It means that its been contaminated.

03 = Contaminated
00 = Normal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
Wow look at this....40-knot winds and they're not even in the convection yet.



Levi, if you will remember last week that low that was spinning off the coast of Wilmington, NC, looked just as good as Colin and it was not a TS or anything even close. Looks can be deceiving although I know this thing is what it is.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15952
Oh and BTW the ECMWF 12z develops Danielle out in the CATL.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31596
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on recon observations I would think that Colin is a 45mph tropical storm.


Agreed, but they haven't even gotten into the convection yet! :o
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37.2 knots (~ 42.8 mph)
Tropical Storm

Highest wind I've seen recently.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
There is little to no harm in waiting for the RECON (which was enroute at the time the TWO was issued) to verify what is expected based on satellite imagery. Better to have that additional info before naming and whatever steps happen as a result.

Rather than name, then drop the name based on RECON. Nobody likes a name-dropper.


Except that 6 hours ago when the sun came up, the TWO before this one....the visible satellite showed the closed center. If you need a plane to confirm that, then you must not be a meteorologist. It's not that big of a deal but I made it one because the NHC inconsistency drives me nuts. Name the darn thing. It's been a TS for many hours now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
funny story,my friends girlfriend was showing me some pictures she took 2 days ago of some nasty looking shelf clouds moving in here in sarasota,she told me they we're because of the "solar storm",pretty funny stuff,I reassured her they were just our usual afteronoon seabreeze storms,to much "2012" I guess!!!,lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
quick question to those who understand weather patterns. i live in western CT and we have been missed by almost every front that goes by. Even today if you look at the NE radar there is a huge chuck missing that will line up with us. this has been happening all summer and i would like to know why? Thanks to whoever would like to respond.
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Colin has been a TS since this morning lol.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31596
Quoting neonlazer:
Bad thing? Wish i understood what those graphs mean..lol


That's a measurement of the NAO, we have been in a positive NAO, which could have led to the halt of our active hurricane season, but now, the NAO is forecast to turn negative, meaning that the horses are about to be let out of their stables. ;)
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Quoting Levi32:


Moderate.



oh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115748
Based on recon observations I would think that Colin is a 45mph tropical storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Tazmanian:



that would make this a strong TS


Moderate.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
Rut roh!




rut roh? why rut roh? explain plzzzzzzzzzzz
thanks
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
Quoting StormW:
Rut roh!

Wish i understood what those graphs mean..lol(like the wind is disturbed or something..)

Doesnt the 03 at the end of the flight messages mean something?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
47 knots at flight-level...numerous TS-force SFMR readings.

000
URNT15 KNHC 051826
AF302 0204A INVEST HDOB 17 20100805
181630 2439N 06542W 9883 00190 0101 +219 +177 088039 041 035 003 03
181700 2440N 06541W 9877 00196 0103 +217 +173 090039 040 038 000 03
181730 2441N 06540W 9876 00197 0104 +219 +169 091039 041 037 000 00
181800 2442N 06539W 9880 00196 0105 +219 +167 092041 042 038 000 00
181830 2443N 06538W 9873 00202 0105 +226 +165 093041 044 041 002 03
181900 2443N 06537W 9878 00198 0105 +226 +165 094041 043 039 001 00
181930 2444N 06537W 9879 00197 0106 +225 +166 095043 044 038 001 03
182000 2445N 06536W 9874 00206 0109 +227 +168 096043 045 036 001 03
182030 2446N 06535W 9875 00206 0112 +226 +170 097042 044 036 000 03
182100 2447N 06534W 9880 00202 0112 +227 +171 100044 046 036 001 03
182130 2448N 06533W 9879 00205 0115 +225 +173 101044 045 039 001 03
182200 2449N 06532W 9878 00207 0116 +226 +174 102043 045 036 001 03
182230 2450N 06531W 9877 00209 0118 +225 +175 103042 044 037 000 03
182300 2451N 06530W 9881 00207 0118 +226 +175 102044 046 036 001 03
182330 2452N 06529W 9880 00209 0119 +225 +176 104046 047 037 000 03
182400 2452N 06528W 9875 00215 0120 +226 +176 105043 043 036 002 03
182430 2453N 06526W 9882 00212 0123 +226 +176 108042 044 037 001 03
182500 2454N 06525W 9876 00215 0123 +227 +176 108039 040 033 002 03
182530 2455N 06524W 9879 00215 0124 +225 +176 110039 041 033 000 03
182600 2456N 06523W 9893 00202 0125 +226 +177 113038 039 031 001 03
$$



that would make this a strong TS
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5093 Comments: 115748
47 knots at flight-level...numerous TS-force SFMR readings.

000
URNT15 KNHC 051826
AF302 0204A INVEST HDOB 17 20100805
181630 2439N 06542W 9883 00190 0101 +219 +177 088039 041 035 003 03
181700 2440N 06541W 9877 00196 0103 +217 +173 090039 040 038 000 03
181730 2441N 06540W 9876 00197 0104 +219 +169 091039 041 037 000 00
181800 2442N 06539W 9880 00196 0105 +219 +167 092041 042 038 000 00
181830 2443N 06538W 9873 00202 0105 +226 +165 093041 044 041 002 03
181900 2443N 06537W 9878 00198 0105 +226 +165 094041 043 039 001 00
181930 2444N 06537W 9879 00197 0106 +225 +166 095043 044 038 001 03
182000 2445N 06536W 9874 00206 0109 +227 +168 096043 045 036 001 03
182030 2446N 06535W 9875 00206 0112 +226 +170 097042 044 036 000 03
182100 2447N 06534W 9880 00202 0112 +227 +171 100044 046 036 001 03
182130 2448N 06533W 9879 00205 0115 +225 +173 101044 045 039 001 03
182200 2449N 06532W 9878 00207 0116 +226 +174 102043 045 036 001 03
182230 2450N 06531W 9877 00209 0118 +225 +175 103042 044 037 000 03
182300 2451N 06530W 9881 00207 0118 +226 +175 102044 046 036 001 03
182330 2452N 06529W 9880 00209 0119 +225 +176 104046 047 037 000 03
182400 2452N 06528W 9875 00215 0120 +226 +176 105043 043 036 002 03
182430 2453N 06526W 9882 00212 0123 +226 +176 108042 044 037 001 03
182500 2454N 06525W 9876 00215 0123 +227 +176 108039 040 033 002 03
182530 2455N 06524W 9879 00215 0124 +225 +176 110039 041 033 000 03
182600 2456N 06523W 9893 00202 0125 +226 +177 113038 039 031 001 03
$$
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:


Funny how any government agency is unquestionable. People email the NHC with questions about their procedures all the time. Even StormW asked them about 92L and they gave him an answer. It's one way to learn about how they do things and their reasoning behind their decisions.

Weather456 also nailed them with an aggressive email on TS Grace last year and there is evidence it swayed their opinion.


I have a good one, I really do. But I have no desire to go down that rat hole.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting StormW:
Rut roh!



Lol, Storm, you crack me up. :)
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Quoting sailfish01:
WOW that wave off Africa looks really impressive. Stormchaser - link to that graphic?


Sure
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15952
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ask him, my memory is fussy but I do remember 456 doing that last year.
Oh, ok. Thanks.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
***Off Topic Question**** Does anyone know what the sun symbol on ebay means ... ex (Link)


**** On Topic ****

Why isnt this a TS right now and when is recon supposed to get there?
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574. Skyepony (Mod)
~24.050N 66.267W. Looks like there's a closed low. Hunters are flying ~500'.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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