CSU leaves their hurricane forecast unchanged; 92L and Colin's remains worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin was ripped apart by wind shear yesterday, and the storm's remnants are passing just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today. Most of the heaviest thunderstorms are passing north of the islands, as seen on Guadeloupe radar. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows this. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the disturbance is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots over Colin's remains this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours, though, and Colin's remnants will need to be monitored for re-development.

Forecast for Colin's remains
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Thursday. Wind shear will continue to decline over the weekend, and this relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next four days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. A major trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 8pm EDT tonight. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Canada.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains and Invest 92L.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) in the south-central Caribbean is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 20% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. This storm was being tagged as 98L yesterday; I'm not sure why it is being called 92L today.

CSU's forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season remain unchanged
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 185% of average. These are the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this summer. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1998, which featured 3 major hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Mitch; 1952, a relatively average year that featured just 7 named storms, but 3 major hurricanes; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2010 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 21% - 44% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 2). This is a good amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these August forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's August forecast uses a new formula, so we don't have any history on how the technique has behaved in the past. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.61 to 0.65 for their previous August forecasts using different techniques, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is scheduled to release their August forecast later today. NOAA will also be issuing their August forecast sometime in the next week.

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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might be TUTT enhanced right now. I am watching Google earth, and where they have found some very slight SSW winds (under 15 mph), they are very slight and were in a location that I would not have expected based on the last NHC position.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think ex-Colin is getting reorginized.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 16:28Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 4 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 06

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 16:24Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 18.9N 60.8W
Location: 346 miles (557 km) to the E (84°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 160° at 33 knots (From the SSE at ~ 37.9 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 24°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 18°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1013 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 140° at 30 knots (From the SE at ~ 34.5 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 31 knots (~ 35.7mph)
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Quoting Levi32:
The divergent flow aloft near the TUTT, although a moderate shearing flow, appears to actually be more favorable for Colin than what he was dealing with yesterday. Convectively he looks better than he ever did as a tropical storm. The key will be whether he moves slow enough to stay just enough under the left periphery of the upper ridge to allow the center to close off, and that would result in him being reclassified.
I'm interested in seeing what Recon finds in the remnants of Colin.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting JeffMasters:


I was thinking the close proximity to Honduras would be enough to preclude development, but you are correct, the predominant model track takes the potential center north of Honduras. I changed my wording a bit to:

"However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression."

Jeff Masters


I agree. It would seem that to move any farther north than that it would have to develop rather rapidly, and there are no signs of that right now. If it stays a tropical wave it is probably only a rain problem for central America.
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you should try to post more doc its very civil with your presence on the blog
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Quoting sky1989:


I thought Colin degenerated because of its extremely fast forward speed of around 35 mph, which caused the system to decouple as the low level center outran its mid-level center.


Yes, that was the main reason. Shear and Dry Air just really helped to destroy it.
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Quoting jeffs713:

Wind shear overall isn't bad. Its the ULL north of PR causing issues, and the A/B high speeding everything along at the low levels.
That's right! The NAO was positive when Colin was around.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting angiest:


See:

Link


11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF IVAN HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST SURFACE
WINDS REPORTS HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN AROUND 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE
INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/12. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN WILL GRADUALLY CURVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD...AND DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR.
AFTER THAT... A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WHICH WILL ACT TO
BLOCK IVAN AND TURN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

SINCE THE REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT...AT LEAST IN
THE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
A MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO
THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS WILL BE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ON IVAN. FUTURE INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT...FRIDAY MORNING.


and Link


7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA



Note this is an extreme case.


Ok.
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The divergent flow aloft near the TUTT, although a moderate shearing flow, appears to actually be more favorable for Colin than what he was dealing with yesterday. Convectively he looks better than he ever did as a tropical storm. The key will be whether he moves slow enough to stay just enough under the left periphery of the upper ridge to allow the center to close off, and that would result in him being reclassified.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its not really that bad, the strongest shear is associated with the TUTT, which is what degenerated Colin into a wave.


I thought Colin degenerated because of its extremely fast forward speed of around 35 mph, which caused the system to decouple as the low level center outran its mid-level center.
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HH is on task in Colin



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Jeff, I am an obvious amateur at this, but some of the models, respected ones at that... have 92L as a CAT 1 with landfall near Cancun.

You are saying it won't even make it to a TD?


Well, to be fair, a lot of models early on had pre-Colin as a cat 2/3. And at one time what is now 92L was forecast by GFS to be a major hurricane in the Gulf.
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Hello Dr. Masters! Thanks for stopping in and giving some of your on the spot analysis.
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I think ex-Colin is getting reorginized.

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Quoting cyclonekid:
This is August..why is the wind shear still so high. I would think it would be a little lower for this time of the year.

Wind shear overall isn't bad. Its the ULL north of PR causing issues, and the A/B high speeding everything along at the low levels.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its not really that bad, the strongest shear is associated with the TUTT, which is what degenerated Colin into a wave.
Not necessarily, shear wasn't that bad, what predominantly degenerated Colin was the fast W/WNW motion that was associated with it because it was embedded in a LLJ. This fast motion usually adds difficulty to a weak tropical cyclone in keeping its circulation closed. Dry air also helped in causing thunderstorm activity to collapse, thus the minimal amount of convection associated with Colin.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting JeffMasters:


I was thinking the close proximity to Honduras would be enough to preclude development, but you are correct, the predominant model track takes the potential center north of Honduras. I changed my wording a bit to:

"However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression."

Jeff Masters


Jeff, I am an obvious amateur at this, but some of the models, respected ones at that... have 92L as a CAT 1 with landfall near Cancun.

You are saying it won't even make it to a TD?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Basically bad timing. it happened that Colin developed when the TUTT axis was at its strongest.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Its not really that bad, the strongest shear is associated with the TUTT, which is what degenerated Colin into a wave.
Oh. When should it let up?
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Wow, it is great to have you commenting/posting with us real time today Dr. M.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oh...really? lol.

I thought I remembered someone saying that they left hours before landfall because they were low on gas.


This is what I remembered as well, but I did not know if it was completely accurate. I had also heard that the pressure may have even gotten lower than 947 mb possibly rivaling Hurricane Audrey's record. I guess we will see what happens.
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Quoting cyclonekid:
This is August..why is the wind shear still so high. I would think it would be a little lower for this time of the year.


Its not really that bad, the strongest shear is associated with the TUTT, which is what degenerated Colin into a wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
189. JeffMasters (Admin)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression

None of the models bring this into Nicaragua. It has 72 hours or so before a landfall in the Yucatan to develop. SHIPS brings this just below hurricane status. Great blog btw Doc!



I was thinking the close proximity to Honduras would be enough to preclude development, but you are correct, the predominant model track takes the potential center north of Honduras. I changed my wording a bit to:

"However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression."

Jeff Masters
AOI/XX/XL
MARK
8.31N45.63W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cyclonekid:
This is August..why is the wind shear still so high. I would think it would be a little lower for this time of the year.
Basically bad timing. it happened that Colin developed when the TUTT axis was at its strongest.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Which system is recon in?
The remnants of tropical storm Colin.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
This is August..why is the wind shear still so high. I would think it would be a little lower for this time of the year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Would it be the same if its circulation opened right up and was just the same low pressure system?


See:

Link


11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF IVAN HAS
BECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST SURFACE
WINDS REPORTS HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN AROUND 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE
INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/12. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN WILL GRADUALLY CURVE
NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD...AND DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR.
AFTER THAT... A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WHICH WILL ACT TO
BLOCK IVAN AND TURN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD
OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.

SINCE THE REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT...AT LEAST IN
THE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...
A MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO
THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS WILL BE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ON IVAN. FUTURE INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT...FRIDAY MORNING.


and Link


7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE
IMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS
FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS
AS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.

FORECASTER AVILA



Note this is an extreme case.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No, Recon was investigating the system right up to landfall. They had to leave because 1) they were low on gas and 2) they can't travel on foreign land.


Oh...really? lol.

I thought I remembered someone saying that they left hours before landfall because they were low on gas.
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Quoting RobbieLSU:
If the energy of a degenerated tropical wave is determined to be from a former named storm, such as would be the case for Colin should it redevelop, it retains the name of its former self.

So if this redevelops, it'll still be Colin. Guarantee ya


See Ivan. 5 days between advisories like I posted last night. One of the best NHC discussions you'll ever read ;)
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04L/REM LOW
MARK
18.68N/61.39W
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INV/92/L
MARK
13.68N/72.48W
MOVEMENT W
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, the recon left a couple of hours before landfall.
No, Recon was investigating the system right up to landfall. They had to leave because 1) they were low on gas and 2) they can't travel on foreign land.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
If the energy of a degenerated tropical wave is determined to be from a former named storm, such as would be the case for Colin should it redevelop, it retains the name of its former self.

So if this redevelops, it'll still be Colin. Guarantee ya
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30mph winds found in recon so far
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Quoting sky1989:


I think this is possible. Isn't 947 mb characteristic of a weak Category 4 hurricane or strong Category 3? Of course Alex was so large that the pressure gradient, which ultimately creates winds, may not have initiated 111+ mph winds. Were the recon in Alex up until the minute it made landfall? It strengthened rapidly at the very end and remained well defined up until well inland Mexico.


No, the recon left a couple of hours before landfall.
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Quoting Hurricanes12:


If it regenerates from the remnants that once was ex-Colin, than they will still call it TD - TS Colin.


Would it be the same if its circulation opened right up and was just the same low pressure system?
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171. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks closed but broad.


Really? Did they find west winds?
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
Will Colin become Colin again if it reforms or will it become TD5/Dannielle?
Because its the remnants, it would be reclassified as Colin. Not TD5 or Danielle.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I believe that in post season, Alex will be upgraded to a Major Hurricane. This is just my opinion however.


I think this is possible. Isn't 947 mb characteristic of a weak Category 4 hurricane or strong Category 3? Of course Alex was so large that the pressure gradient, which ultimately creates winds, may not have initiated 111+ mph winds. Were the recon in Alex up until the minute it made landfall? It strengthened rapidly at the very end and remained well defined up until well inland Mexico.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Looks closed but broad.
Looks that way to me as well.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Hurricanes12:


If it regenerates from the remnants that once was ex-Colin, than they will still call it TD - TS Colin.


I believe it could even absorb another system (this is hypothetical of course) and still keep the same name, so long as the NHC thinks the dominant circulation was always the remnants of Colin.
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Good afternoon Storm,

Great to see you as always. Are you altering your numbers based on your June 1 forecast? Or, are you sticking with it?

If you are changing your storm prediction numbers, what are they? Thanks as always and I love your tropical weather synopsis. Have a great day.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I believe that in post season, Alex will be upgraded to a Major Hurricane. This is just my opinion however.


With only 3mb higher pressure and considerable destruction, Ike is still listed as cat 2 at landfall. It may take a decade, as with Andrew, to upgrade either of these storms (and in the case of Ike I think there is very good justification for so doing).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.