CSU leaves their hurricane forecast unchanged; 92L and Colin's remains worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin was ripped apart by wind shear yesterday, and the storm's remnants are passing just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today. Most of the heaviest thunderstorms are passing north of the islands, as seen on Guadeloupe radar. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows this. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the disturbance is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots over Colin's remains this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours, though, and Colin's remnants will need to be monitored for re-development.

Forecast for Colin's remains
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Thursday. Wind shear will continue to decline over the weekend, and this relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next four days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. A major trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 8pm EDT tonight. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Canada.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains and Invest 92L.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) in the south-central Caribbean is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 20% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. This storm was being tagged as 98L yesterday; I'm not sure why it is being called 92L today.

CSU's forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season remain unchanged
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 185% of average. These are the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this summer. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1998, which featured 3 major hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Mitch; 1952, a relatively average year that featured just 7 named storms, but 3 major hurricanes; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2010 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 21% - 44% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 2). This is a good amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these August forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's August forecast uses a new formula, so we don't have any history on how the technique has behaved in the past. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.61 to 0.65 for their previous August forecasts using different techniques, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is scheduled to release their August forecast later today. NOAA will also be issuing their August forecast sometime in the next week.

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 16:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 4 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 16:41Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.9N 60.5W
Location: 378 miles (608 km) to the ENE (74°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 140° at 39 knots (From the SE at ~ 44.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 16°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1015 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 140° at 40 knots (From the SE at ~ 46.0 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0mph)
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


From how its coded it looks like any reading picked up that has 03 on is contaminted and if it has 00 then it doesn't


Im using the TropicalAtlantic site and that 52 knot reading was not contaminated
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they are having probs they turned SFMR off again
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I find it crazy that the Tropical Atlantic website decoder said that the 52 knot reading was not contaminated.

As we say, its obviously "high".
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Back later.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 4th, with Video
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I find it crazy that the Tropical Atlantic website decoder said that the 52 knot reading was not contaminated.


From how its coded it looks like any reading picked up that has 03 on is contaminted and if it has 00 then it doesn't
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Quoting xCat6Hurricane:


Appreciate that insight, i could use some knowledge on the different agencies.


Link
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Quoting will45:
something seems wrong i think his had the wrong tail number unless i looked at it wrong


Theirs a Dropsode mission going on which was the SFMR totally off and theirs the one I posted the 52kts reading from which is in ex-Colin
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Quoting cyclonekid:
This is August..why is the wind shear still so high. I would think it would be a little lower for this time of the year.
Those upper low pressure areas are responsible for most of the shear. The rapid movement of these systems running in to the shear does not help the waves to develop either.
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Quoting serialteg:


i reckon wanting to stick to your guns...
we wait till the 15th my numbers were 21 to 23 in total those numbers are to be reduced but awaiting outcome of early augusts activity
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now that last one had the right tail number so guess it is right
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251. BDAwx
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Highly, highly unlikely. A remnant low isn't going to have winds of 52 knots.


Could its fast forward speed make its surface winds strong like that?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Highly, highly unlikely. A remnant low isn't going to have winds of 52 knots.


There could be 52 knots winds embedded in heavy thunderstorms and they just so happened to catch a down burst or winds from the thunderstorm.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Highly, highly unlikely. A remnant low isn't going to have winds of 52 knots.
I find it crazy that the Tropical Atlantic website decoder said that the 52 knot reading was not contaminated.
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92L is looking fairly healthy on the visible satellite loop. Some outflow boundaries can be seen moving towards the north-west away from the system, but new thunderstorms are developing. You can clearly see some bands beginning to develop in the north-eastern semi-circle as well as the western side, and streaming towards where a LLC may eventually develop. Anyone know if there is anything at the surface as of yet? Link
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something seems wrong i think his had the wrong tail number unless i looked at it wrong
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Still exciting though - unless thats what their really getting :O
Highly, highly unlikely. A remnant low isn't going to have winds of 52 knots.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
231. IpswichWeatherCenter 12:45 PM EDT on August 04, 2010

Probably having problems, that's why we saw the 44 knot reading.


Still exciting though - unless thats what their really getting :O
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Quoting angiest:


Appears to be LBAR, which I don't think is very skillful with tropical systems. Of course, time will tell.


Appreciate that insight, i could use some knowledge on the different agencies.
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And back to the original mission:


URNT15 KNHC 041645
AF302 0104A INVEST HDOB 13 20100804
163500 1930N 06038W 9770 00322 0140 +200 +179 131037 038 046 009 00
163530 1931N 06037W 9771 00321 0141 +195 +172 136038 039 052 014 00
163600 1933N 06037W 9771 00320 0140 +199 +166 139040 041 041 007 00
163630 1935N 06037W 9768 00324 0141 +200 +160 136041 042 041 006 00
163700 1936N 06036W 9770 00322 0141 +200 +157 136041 042 041 004 00
163730 1938N 06036W 9773 00320 0142 +198 +155 135043 044 045 011 00
163800 1940N 06035W 9771 00322 0141 +208 +154 136045 047 046 005 00
163830 1941N 06035W 9770 00326 0142 +223 +153 137046 047 046 001 03
163900 1943N 06034W 9766 00330 0143 +220 +153 138045 046 041 005 00
163930 1945N 06034W 9769 00328 0145 +211 +154 138040 044 039 009 00
164000 1946N 06034W 9775 00322 0145 +201 +155 140040 043 042 010 00
164030 1948N 06033W 9769 00328 0147 +197 +155 136041 045 044 010 00
164100 1950N 06033W 9770 00327 0146 +210 +155 137042 045 042 005 00
164130 1951N 06032W 9782 00316 0148 +197 +155 136040 042 047 019 03
164200 1953N 06032W 9764 00334 0148 +205 +155 138046 046 041 006 00
164230 1955N 06031W 9774 00326 0149 +203 +154 135040 041 043 009 00
164300 1956N 06031W 9763 00336 0149 +211 +154 128039 041 040 009 00
164330 1958N 06031W 9776 00324 0146 +221 +155 124040 041 037 006 03
164400 1959N 06032W 9769 00331 0146 +227 +158 122039 041 /// /// 03
164430 1959N 06033W 9769 00330 0146 +220 +162 120036 037 /// /// 03
$$
;

Surface Pressure: 1014.0 mb
(~ 29.94 inHg)

Flt Level Winds :
From 137° at 46 knots

Highest non suspect sea level reading:
50.7 knots (~ 58.3 mph)
Tropical Storm
(From the SE at ~ 52.9 mph)
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Recon definitely having problems with the SFMR.

000
URNT15 KNHC 041645
AF302 0104A INVEST HDOB 13 20100804
163500 1930N 06038W 9770 00322 0140 200 179 131037 038 046 009 00
163530 1931N 06037W 9771 00321 0141 195 172 136038 039 052 014 00
163600 1933N 06037W 9771 00320 0140 199 166 139040 041 041 007 00
163630 1935N 06037W 9768 00324 0141 200 160 136041 042 041 006 00
163700 1936N 06036W 9770 00322 0141 200 157 136041 042 041 004 00
163730 1938N 06036W 9773 00320 0142 198 155 135043 044 045 011 00
163800 1940N 06035W 9771 00322 0141 208 154 136045 047 046 005 00
163830 1941N 06035W 9770 00326 0142 223 153 137046 047 046 001 03
163900 1943N 06034W 9766 00330 0143 220 153 138045 046 041 005 00
163930 1945N 06034W 9769 00328 0145 211 154 138040 044 039 009 00
164000 1946N 06034W 9775 00322 0145 201 155 140040 043 042 010 00
164030 1948N 06033W 9769 00328 0147 197 155 136041 045 044 010 00
164100 1950N 06033W 9770 00327 0146 210 155 137042 045 042 005 00
164130 1951N 06032W 9782 00316 0148 197 155 136040 042 047 019 03
164200 1953N 06032W 9764 00334 0148 205 155 138046 046 041 006 00
164230 1955N 06031W 9774 00326 0149 203 154 135040 041 043 009 00
164300 1956N 06031W 9763 00336 0149 211 154 128039 041 040 009 00
164330 1958N 06031W 9776 00324 0146 221 155 124040 041 037 006 03
164400 1959N 06032W 9769 00331 0146 227 158 122039 041 /// /// 03
164430 1959N 06033W 9769 00330 0146 220 162 120036 037 /// /// 03
$$
;
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totally worth reading back!! DocMaster's posting? oh yeah, I'll re-read the last 230 posts.

This is gonna be SWEET!!
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 175 Comments: 26505
Quoting angiest:
231 - Maybe it was smoking (something)? :)


Lol - the SFMR got turned off because it got high...
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231. IpswichWeatherCenter 12:45 PM EDT on August 04, 2010

Probably having problems, that's why we saw the 44 knot reading.
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231 - Maybe it was smoking (something)? :)
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Is it me or do they have a second recon on its way out?
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I say this hesitantly but Colin looks better than it ever has and looks like its trying to close the COC.
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235. Prgal
I am VERY happy to see Dr. Masters here answering some questions or commenting. Good to see you around (not only sharing information in the blog).
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234. BDAwx
Here's what i see of ex-Colin. Vorticity has increased and has become more concentrated since its final advisory. Surface Convergence has increased a lot. It has slowed down quite a bit. Upper divergence has increased significantly. Wind shear has increase a respectable amount, but I can't tell if its harming or helping the system.
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Quoting xCat6Hurricane:


That model that takes 92L up to the texas/louisana area does not look pretty


Appears to be LBAR, which I don't think is very skillful with tropical systems. Of course, time will tell.
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Levi, Just got back from my meetings. Have you put up your Tropical Tibit yet. You have some great info on there.
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They just turned the SFMR off.


URNT15 KNHC 041640
AF304 WXWXA 100804144014304 HDOB 12 20100804
163100 3017N 08920W 9114 00959 0166 +221 +189 348004 006 /// /// 03
163130 3018N 08919W 9111 00959 0163 +220 +190 316005 007 /// /// 03
163200 3019N 08918W 9138 00941 0168 +222 +190 308006 007 /// /// 03
163230 3020N 08916W 9293 00795 0171 +232 +190 290005 006 /// /// 03
163300 3019N 08915W 9424 00668 0166 +241 +190 305005 006 /// /// 03
163330 3018N 08916W 9458 00633 0161 +244 +192 346005 006 /// /// 03
163400 3017N 08918W 9444 00644 0160 +245 +194 358004 004 /// /// 03
163430 3017N 08919W 9453 00638 0159 +245 +197 047003 004 /// /// 03
163500 3018N 08920W 9444 00645 0160 +243 +199 074002 004 /// /// 03
163530 3019N 08918W 9451 00639 0160 +245 +201 287002 003 /// /// 03
163600 3020N 08917W 9452 00638 0159 +247 +202 268003 004 /// /// 03
163630 3022N 08917W 9454 00637 0159 +250 +203 344003 004 /// /// 03
163700 3023N 08917W 9446 00644 0158 +250 +204 321002 004 /// /// 03
163730 3025N 08917W 9452 00638 0158 +250 +206 309002 003 /// /// 03
163800 3026N 08917W 9455 00635 0157 +254 +208 310004 006 /// /// 03
163830 3027N 08918W 9454 00634 0157 +252 +210 008003 005 /// /// 03
163900 3028N 08920W 9453 00637 0158 +253 +212 350003 005 /// /// 03
163930 3029N 08920W 9450 00638 0156 +255 +213 319003 004 /// /// 03
164000 3030N 08919W 9454 00633 0156 +255 +215 277004 006 /// /// 03
164030 3031N 08917W 9447 00646 0159 +255 +217 273004 005 /// /// 03
$$
;
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Yeh - heres the source if you don't believe me: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt


I didn't dispute your post, I disputed the validity of the data. :)
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of WED 04 Aug 2010

2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
99E.INVEST
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
97W.INVEST
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
90B.INVEST
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
216. IpswichWeatherCenter 12:37 PM EDT on August 04, 2010

Appears contaminated to me.


How do you know its contaminated?

Also - it may be a gust?
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Look to be from the SSE, unless I am reading that wrong.

Quoting angiest:


That can't be right... This is used-to-be Colin, right?
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"This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.)"

And, of those three, only Alex managed to reach Hurricane status (Category 1) before reaching land, while the other two were weak Tropical Storms, at best.
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Quoting btwntx08:


That model that takes 92L up to the texas/louisana area does not look pretty
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Quoting Waltanater:
Interestly enough, the name Colin means "dark". Another meaning is "Victorious poeple"...maybe it will survive after all!


makes me think of navy seals...they go "dark" and sneak up on you, then when you arent expecting it they come out of nowhere and are victorious
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216. IpswichWeatherCenter 12:37 PM EDT on August 04, 2010

Appears contaminated to me.
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Quoting angiest:


That can't be right... This is used-to-be Colin, right?


Yeh - heres the source if you don't believe me: http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt
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lunch is over back at 3
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
URNT15 KNHC 041634
AF302 0104A INVEST HDOB 12 20100804
162500 1857N 06046W 9770 00313 0125 +235 +184 154033 034 031 000 03
162530 1859N 06046W 9776 00308 0125 +237 +185 153032 032 030 000 00
162600 1900N 06045W 9769 00315 0127 +235 +186 150031 032 031 000 03
162630 1902N 06045W 9768 00317 0128 +233 +187 147030 030 031 000 00
162700 1904N 06045W 9771 00315 0128 +234 +187 146031 032 031 000 03
162730 1905N 06044W 9768 00318 0128 +235 +187 145031 033 032 000 03
162800 1907N 06044W 9775 00311 0129 +235 +187 143031 032 031 000 00
162830 1909N 06043W 9771 00315 0129 +235 +188 141033 034 032 000 00
162900 1910N 06043W 9769 00316 0129 +235 +187 143034 035 033 000 03
162930 1912N 06042W 9772 00316 0130 +235 +188 140032 033 030 000 00
163000 1914N 06042W 9771 00316 0131 +235 +189 139031 032 030 000 00
163030 1915N 06042W 9770 00319 0131 +235 +188 138031 031 030 000 03
163100 1917N 06041W 9772 00317 0132 +235 +189 135031 031 029 000 00
163130 1919N 06041W 9768 00322 0134 +235 +189 131029 030 029 000 00
163200 1920N 06040W 9769 00321 0134 +233 +190 129029 030 030 001 00
163230 1922N 06040W 9773 00319 0134 +230 +189 133031 032 033 001 00
163300 1923N 06040W 9772 00320 0136 +229 +189 128030 031 034 001 00
163330 1925N 06039W 9771 00321 0136 +227 +188 121034 034 036 000 00
163400 1927N 06039W 9770 00322 0137 +221 +186 125036 037 039 001 00
163430 1928N 06038W 9770 00322 0139 +211 +184 125036 037 044 007 00
$$
;

Estimated Surface Wind 42.8kts
SFMR: 44kts


That can't be right... This is used-to-be Colin, right?
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Is the Southern Hemisphere also having an unusually warm winter as the northern has a warm summer? What's happening with Antarctic ice?
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Dear Dr. Masters,

Good afternoon. I am a big fan of yours. I read your wunderblog everyday. Your analysis and expertise is awesome and I love your insight.

I would be the happiest person to get a reply from you to my questions below. I know you are busy but if you get a chance to respond, that would be great.

Given the major forecasters for hurricanes, do you think their numbers are a bit far fetched given we have had only 3 storms so far? Also, I know June and July are the quietest months for hurricanes but what exactly do you think is the reason for all the dust from SAL being present in the ocean? Do you predict August - October to be well above average?

Lastly, what are you predictions for the season and your analysis on chances of a hurricane(s) hitting Florida given the emerging La Nina on the horizon?

Sorry for all the questions. Thank you Dr. Masters and let me say it has been a pleasure writing this comment to you. Have a wonderful day and I look forward to hearing from you.
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URNT15 KNHC 041634
AF302 0104A INVEST HDOB 12 20100804
162500 1857N 06046W 9770 00313 0125 +235 +184 154033 034 031 000 03
162530 1859N 06046W 9776 00308 0125 +237 +185 153032 032 030 000 00
162600 1900N 06045W 9769 00315 0127 +235 +186 150031 032 031 000 03
162630 1902N 06045W 9768 00317 0128 +233 +187 147030 030 031 000 00
162700 1904N 06045W 9771 00315 0128 +234 +187 146031 032 031 000 03
162730 1905N 06044W 9768 00318 0128 +235 +187 145031 033 032 000 03
162800 1907N 06044W 9775 00311 0129 +235 +187 143031 032 031 000 00
162830 1909N 06043W 9771 00315 0129 +235 +188 141033 034 032 000 00
162900 1910N 06043W 9769 00316 0129 +235 +187 143034 035 033 000 03
162930 1912N 06042W 9772 00316 0130 +235 +188 140032 033 030 000 00
163000 1914N 06042W 9771 00316 0131 +235 +189 139031 032 030 000 00
163030 1915N 06042W 9770 00319 0131 +235 +188 138031 031 030 000 03
163100 1917N 06041W 9772 00317 0132 +235 +189 135031 031 029 000 00
163130 1919N 06041W 9768 00322 0134 +235 +189 131029 030 029 000 00
163200 1920N 06040W 9769 00321 0134 +233 +190 129029 030 030 001 00
163230 1922N 06040W 9773 00319 0134 +230 +189 133031 032 033 001 00
163300 1923N 06040W 9772 00320 0136 +229 +189 128030 031 034 001 00
163330 1925N 06039W 9771 00321 0136 +227 +188 121034 034 036 000 00
163400 1927N 06039W 9770 00322 0137 +221 +186 125036 037 039 001 00
163430 1928N 06038W 9770 00322 0139 +211 +184 125036 037 044 007 00
$$
;

Estimated Surface Wind 42.8kts
SFMR: 44kts
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm interested in seeing what Recon finds in the remnants of Colin.

So far some 28kt winds
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Recon found a non-contaminated 32mph SFMR reading.

162400 1854N 06047W 9771 00313 0126 +236 +184 154030 031 028 000 00
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Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Flood, Morning, so what cha think about 92L?
sheri


Lots of rain for central America...
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might be TUTT enhanced right now. I am watching Google earth, and where they have found some very slight SSW winds (under 15 mph), they are very slight and were in a location that I would not have expected based on the last NHC position.

Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I think ex-Colin is getting reorginized.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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