CSU leaves their hurricane forecast unchanged; 92L and Colin's remains worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin was ripped apart by wind shear yesterday, and the storm's remnants are passing just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today. Most of the heaviest thunderstorms are passing north of the islands, as seen on Guadeloupe radar. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows this. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the disturbance is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots over Colin's remains this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours, though, and Colin's remnants will need to be monitored for re-development.

Forecast for Colin's remains
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Thursday. Wind shear will continue to decline over the weekend, and this relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next four days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. A major trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 8pm EDT tonight. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Canada.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains and Invest 92L.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) in the south-central Caribbean is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 20% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. This storm was being tagged as 98L yesterday; I'm not sure why it is being called 92L today.

CSU's forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season remain unchanged
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 185% of average. These are the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this summer. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1998, which featured 3 major hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Mitch; 1952, a relatively average year that featured just 7 named storms, but 3 major hurricanes; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2010 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 21% - 44% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 2). This is a good amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these August forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's August forecast uses a new formula, so we don't have any history on how the technique has behaved in the past. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.61 to 0.65 for their previous August forecasts using different techniques, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is scheduled to release their August forecast later today. NOAA will also be issuing their August forecast sometime in the next week.

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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wow look at invest 99E
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Quoting DestinJeff:
What in the Wide Wide World of Sports is going on over there in the far eatern Atlantic?



Large tropical wave that has potential to develop. Either that or some large mojo.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
What in the Wide Wide World of Sports is going on over there in the far eatern Atlantic?

Very large tropical wave with model support.
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Winds are constant out of the E-SE. No west winds.
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Enter it into the decoder located here: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/


or go here
Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We do not have a closed low.

000
URNT15 KNHC 041714
AF302 0104A INVEST HDOB 16 20100804
170500 1913N 06118W 9771 00302 0113 +236 +203 164023 024 030 000 00
170530 1912N 06119W 9772 00301 0113 +238 +202 169022 022 029 000 00
170600 1911N 06120W 9768 00305 0112 +239 +202 174021 021 028 000 00
170630 1909N 06121W 9771 00302 0112 +238 +203 178018 020 026 002 00
170700 1908N 06122W 9769 00305 0113 +238 +203 178015 016 020 001 00
170730 1907N 06123W 9772 00303 0114 +240 +204 180014 014 017 000 00
170800 1906N 06124W 9770 00303 0115 +237 +204 177013 013 011 000 00
170830 1905N 06125W 9772 00302 0115 +236 +205 178012 014 009 000 00
170900 1904N 06126W 9771 00305 0117 +235 +206 186011 013 017 000 00
170930 1903N 06127W 9771 00305 0117 +232 +206 184012 013 023 000 00
171000 1902N 06128W 9772 00304 0118 +230 +206 191013 014 025 000 00
171030 1901N 06129W 9768 00309 0120 +220 +206 192014 015 024 000 00
171100 1900N 06130W 9769 00309 0120 +222 +203 188014 015 022 001 00
171130 1859N 06131W 9774 00304 0120 +223 +198 186014 015 023 005 00
171200 1858N 06132W 9775 00303 0122 +207 +193 183011 012 033 014 03
171230 1857N 06134W 9771 00307 0123 +212 +189 179009 011 019 002 00
171300 1856N 06135W 9770 00308 0121 +232 +185 182008 009 004 001 00
171330 1854N 06136W 9773 00306 0121 +231 +184 185008 008 000 000 00
171400 1853N 06137W 9770 00308 0120 +238 +185 173008 009 000 001 03
171430 1852N 06138W 9770 00309 0120 +239 +188 174006 007 000 000 00
$$


Maybe next time.... ;)
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We do not have a closed low if the 1011mb readings are the lowest...which they seem to be.

000
URNT15 KNHC 041714
AF302 0104A INVEST HDOB 16 20100804
170500 1913N 06118W 9771 00302 0113 236 203 164023 024 030 000 00
170530 1912N 06119W 9772 00301 0113 238 202 169022 022 029 000 00
170600 1911N 06120W 9768 00305 0112 239 202 174021 021 028 000 00
170630 1909N 06121W 9771 00302 0112 238 203 178018 020 026 002 00
170700 1908N 06122W 9769 00305 0113 238 203 178015 016 020 001 00
170730 1907N 06123W 9772 00303 0114 240 204 180014 014 017 000 00
170800 1906N 06124W 9770 00303 0115 237 204 177013 013 011 000 00
170830 1905N 06125W 9772 00302 0115 236 205 178012 014 009 000 00
170900 1904N 06126W 9771 00305 0117 235 206 186011 013 017 000 00
170930 1903N 06127W 9771 00305 0117 232 206 184012 013 023 000 00
171000 1902N 06128W 9772 00304 0118 230 206 191013 014 025 000 00
171030 1901N 06129W 9768 00309 0120 220 206 192014 015 024 000 00
171100 1900N 06130W 9769 00309 0120 222 203 188014 015 022 001 00
171130 1859N 06131W 9774 00304 0120 223 198 186014 015 023 005 00
171200 1858N 06132W 9775 00303 0122 207 193 183011 012 033 014 03
171230 1857N 06134W 9771 00307 0123 212 189 179009 011 019 002 00
171300 1856N 06135W 9770 00308 0121 232 185 182008 009 004 001 00
171330 1854N 06136W 9773 00306 0121 231 184 185008 008 000 000 00
171400 1853N 06137W 9770 00308 0120 238 185 173008 009 000 001 03
171430 1852N 06138W 9770 00309 0120 239 188 174006 007 000 000 00
$$
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Surface pressures aren't convincing. 1011 mb at best.


You think the pressure is too high or the wind readings are off?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Surface pressures aren't convincing. 1011 mb at best.


they are still heading south, pressures could very well be lower
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Quoting ph34683:


Could someone help me out? How do you read this??

TIA!!


Enter it into the decoder located here: http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
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Surface pressures aren't convincing. 1011 mb at best.
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Quoting will45:


need a vortex
Precisely.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If they find a closed LLC its possible they might upgrade Colin back to TS Status with winds of 50 mph.


need a vortex
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
URNT15 KNHC 041704
AF302 0104A INVEST HDOB 15 20100804
165500 1935N 06056W 9773 00313 0129 +235 +184 126034 035 034 001 00
165530 1934N 06057W 9771 00314 0127 +235 +188 129035 035 034 001 03
165600 1932N 06058W 9769 00314 0126 +234 +191 127034 034 035 000 00
165630 1931N 06059W 9771 00311 0126 +232 +194 123031 032 032 000 03
165700 1930N 06100W 9774 00310 0126 +236 +196 124032 034 030 000 00
165730 1929N 06101W 9772 00311 0125 +239 +197 127033 033 032 000 00
165800 1928N 06102W 9771 00312 0124 +238 +198 129033 034 033 000 03
165830 1927N 06104W 9770 00312 0124 +236 +200 130032 033 032 000 00
165900 1926N 06105W 9773 00309 0124 +236 +201 129032 033 032 000 03
165930 1924N 06106W 9773 00307 0123 +236 +202 130031 032 032 000 00
170000 1923N 06107W 9771 00310 0122 +236 +203 134032 033 031 000 00
170030 1922N 06108W 9770 00310 0121 +236 +203 138033 034 032 000 03
170100 1921N 06109W 9770 00309 0120 +235 +204 138034 035 033 000 00
170130 1920N 06110W 9772 00305 0119 +235 +204 140033 034 033 000 00
170200 1919N 06111W 9776 00301 0118 +234 +204 141035 036 033 001 00
170230 1918N 06112W 9774 00301 0117 +234 +204 144033 034 033 002 00
170300 1917N 06113W 9768 00306 0116 +234 +203 146030 030 034 000 00
170330 1916N 06115W 9776 00299 0115 +236 +203 151029 029 032 000 00
170400 1915N 06116W 9768 00306 0114 +238 +202 157028 029 032 000 00
170430 1914N 06117W 9769 00304 0113 +237 +202 158026 028 032 000 00
$$
;


Could someone help me out? How do you read this??

TIA!!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If they find a closed LLC its possible they might upgrade Colin back to TS Status with winds of 50 mph.
They've found 60mph SFMR winds as well. However, if I were the NHC and recon found west winds I would only upgrade it to a 40 or 45mph TS.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pressures are at 1011mb, however there have been no west winds found.


They haven't exactly been in a place to find them though.
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If they find a closed LLC its possible they might upgrade Colin back to TS Status with winds of 50 mph.
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LRandyB is in St. Croix:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/LRandyB/comment.html?entrynum=166#commenttop



I'll be flying with the Hurricane Hunters ...to St. Croix as part of a normal deployment,


6. LRandyB 6:34 PM EDT on August 03, 2010
Made it here safe and sound! I'm flying tomorrow night!

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Estimated 30second winds are convincing too.
51.6 knots (~ 59.4 mph)
Tropical Storm
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
colin would get a new number and name?


No, same system so it would keep the name
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Pressures are at 1011mb, however there have been no west winds found.
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I've got a 1011mb at the moment


yea it is dropping
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I'm still interested in a tropical wave timing chart. I know everyone is focused on the big H, but a TS, or a TD or even a TW can still ruin some-ones day. A week to two week timing prediction on tropical wave arrival times can only help.
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Convincing Flight Level winds of a 40 mph system.
46 knots
(~ 52.9 mph)

Can't seem to find any evidence of a closed low.
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colin would get a new number and name?
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Quoting will45:
pressure 1012 now


I've got a 1011mb at the moment
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Below is the current 26.C isotherm depth chart. Note the hundreds of thousands of square miles of ocean with 26.C or warmer water down to between 250' (green) and 325' (yellow) below the surface. There's also a growing pool of water in the northwestern Caribbean where 26.C water extends down to nearly 500'. (The blue shading in the Bahamas, and along the eastern coasts of both continents and the Gulf of Mexico, doesn't mean warm water isn't far from the surface; it means, rather, that the water is shallow in those areas. That is, there is no water deeper than 100'.)Come and get it!

Next is the current SST map. Note that most of the non-land area in this image is capable of sustaining tropical cyclones; only those areas in blue and located outside the solid red line are too cool for TCs. Pay special attention to the expanding area of surface temperatures at or above 32.C (about 90.F) on Florida's west coast, in parts of the Bahamas, at the northern edge of Cuba, and stretched out in the western Atlantic between the 8th and 10th parallels.Come and get it!

And finally, the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) map. The entire light-blue (and lighter) area bounded by the solid line has a storm-developing potential of at least 70 kJ/cm2, while the red area surrounding Jamaica has a pretty remarkable TCHP of 110 kJ/cm2 or higher. Even a slow-moving storm in the latter area wouldn't have a problem overcoming upwelling, and would instead likely increase in strength.Come and get it!
Note: most of the Gulf generally sees its maximum SSTs in August, while the northern half of the Caribbean tops out in September. The southern Caribbean and parts of the eastern Atlantic max out in October. (Link)
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pressure 1012 now
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URNT15 KNHC 041704
AF302 0104A INVEST HDOB 15 20100804
165500 1935N 06056W 9773 00313 0129 +235 +184 126034 035 034 001 00
165530 1934N 06057W 9771 00314 0127 +235 +188 129035 035 034 001 03
165600 1932N 06058W 9769 00314 0126 +234 +191 127034 034 035 000 00
165630 1931N 06059W 9771 00311 0126 +232 +194 123031 032 032 000 03
165700 1930N 06100W 9774 00310 0126 +236 +196 124032 034 030 000 00
165730 1929N 06101W 9772 00311 0125 +239 +197 127033 033 032 000 00
165800 1928N 06102W 9771 00312 0124 +238 +198 129033 034 033 000 03
165830 1927N 06104W 9770 00312 0124 +236 +200 130032 033 032 000 00
165900 1926N 06105W 9773 00309 0124 +236 +201 129032 033 032 000 03
165930 1924N 06106W 9773 00307 0123 +236 +202 130031 032 032 000 00
170000 1923N 06107W 9771 00310 0122 +236 +203 134032 033 031 000 00
170030 1922N 06108W 9770 00310 0121 +236 +203 138033 034 032 000 03
170100 1921N 06109W 9770 00309 0120 +235 +204 138034 035 033 000 00
170130 1920N 06110W 9772 00305 0119 +235 +204 140033 034 033 000 00
170200 1919N 06111W 9776 00301 0118 +234 +204 141035 036 033 001 00
170230 1918N 06112W 9774 00301 0117 +234 +204 144033 034 033 002 00
170300 1917N 06113W 9768 00306 0116 +234 +203 146030 030 034 000 00
170330 1916N 06115W 9776 00299 0115 +236 +203 151029 029 032 000 00
170400 1915N 06116W 9768 00306 0114 +238 +202 157028 029 032 000 00
170430 1914N 06117W 9769 00304 0113 +237 +202 158026 028 032 000 00
$$
;
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i don't see why CSU would change their numbers, the peak of the season is not even here yet.

good morning all!
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Quoting angiest:


That wind doesn't necessarily have to be related to an overall circulation, it could indicate potent convection, no?


must be
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Quoting hydrus:
The GEM model has a low hanging off the Louisiana coast that may develop.Link



Interesting!!
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Quoting will45:


that 1014 pressure doesnt sound right tho


That wind doesn't necessarily have to be related to an overall circulation, it could indicate potent convection, no?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TS force wind readings were found inside the strongest convection so it is believable.



Colin will likely regenerate tomorrow, but I'm not sure about the other system...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The TS force wind readings were found inside the strongest convection so it is believable.



that 1014 pressure doesnt sound right tho
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Thanks Storm
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The GEM model has a low hanging off the Louisiana coast that may develop.Link
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The TS force wind readings were found inside the strongest convection so it is believable.

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Hi guys!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah I noticed that. Guess that the 52 knot reading was not contaminated. Let's see what the NHC says at 2PM.


As I recall, they found rather high winds in Bonnie when she was an invest and only went with 30kt when they initiated advisories...

Would be interesting if this is the same plane.
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Some impressive winds so far.



AOI
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269. amd
looks like there are a good area of tropical storm force winds (40-50 mph) associated with ex-Colin, but not much evidence of a surface circulation, and pressures are a bit high 1012-1014 mb.

I do have to admit, I am a little surprised at how post-tropical Colin has held up as a strong wave despite being in very unfavorable wind shear and a region of higher pressures.
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and notice the pressure at that reading 1014
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URNT15 KNHC 041654
AF302 0104A INVEST HDOB 14 20100804
164500 1957N 06033W 9769 00331 0149 211 166 125034 039 /// /// 03
164530 1956N 06034W 9766 00332 0149 198 167 128039 041 045 018 03
164600 1955N 06036W 9765 00333 0147 210 166 128037 039 042 008 00
164630 1954N 06037W 9773 00324 0146 211 164 130036 036 040 006 00
164700 1953N 06037W 9775 00323 0146 214 164 132037 041 040 005 00
164730 1951N 06039W 9766 00330 0145 210 163 135036 038 040 009 00
164800 1950N 06040W 9769 00328 0146 198 163 136036 040 045 012 00
164830 1949N 06041W 9772 00324 0145 207 162 134036 042 042 016 00
164900 1948N 06042W 9767 00326 0145 188 160 130045 046 048 015 00
164930 1947N 06043W 9766 00326 0141 192 157 130043 045 046 012 00
165000 1946N 06044W 9777 00313 0140 192 154 126038 039 053 019 00
165030 1945N 06045W 9768 00323 0138 211 154 125040 042 043 013 00
165100 1944N 06046W 9776 00316 0137 219 154 125037 039 040 010 00
165130 1943N 06048W 9776 00315 0136 226 157 129040 040 038 001 03
165200 1941N 06049W 9769 00320 0134 228 161 128037 038 037 000 00
165230 1940N 06050W 9768 00322 0134 224 166 127036 037 035 000 00
165300 1939N 06051W 9770 00319 0133 227 171 127037 037 035 001 00
165330 1938N 06052W 9771 00316 0131 231 174 125037 037 036 000 00
165400 1937N 06053W 9770 00317 0130 231 177 125037 038 037 001 00
165430 1936N 06054W 9772 00315 0129 234 181 124035 035 036 000 03
$$
;

Another 51.6 knots (~ 59.4 mph) surface level reading - that is not contaminated - its in very high levels of rain too.
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Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


From how its coded it looks like any reading picked up that has 03 on is contaminted and if it has 00 then it doesn't
Yeah I noticed that. Guess that the 52 knot reading was not contaminated. Let's see what the NHC says at 2PM.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Im using the TropicalAtlantic site and that 52 knot reading was not contaminated


Yeh I know - I was looking at the coding of the http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ur/urnt15.knhc..txt thing that Tropical Atlantic use and if it has an 03 it is contaminated and if it has an 00 it isn't - or so it appears.
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263. BDAwx
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Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 16:43Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)
Tropical Depression: Number 4 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 07

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Wednesday, 16:41Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 19.9N 60.5W
Location: 378 miles (608 km) to the ENE (74°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 300 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 140° at 39 knots (From the SE at ~ 44.8 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 20°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 16°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP): 1015 mb (extrapolated)

Optional Data...

Estimated Surface Wind: From 140° at 40 knots (From the SE at ~ 46.0 mph)

Remarks Section...

Surface Wind Speed (likely by SFMR): 40 knots (~ 46.0mph)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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