CSU leaves their hurricane forecast unchanged; 92L and Colin's remains worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin was ripped apart by wind shear yesterday, and the storm's remnants are passing just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today. Most of the heaviest thunderstorms are passing north of the islands, as seen on Guadeloupe radar. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows this. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the disturbance is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots over Colin's remains this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours, though, and Colin's remnants will need to be monitored for re-development.

Forecast for Colin's remains
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Thursday. Wind shear will continue to decline over the weekend, and this relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next four days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. A major trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 8pm EDT tonight. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Canada.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains and Invest 92L.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) in the south-central Caribbean is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 20% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. This storm was being tagged as 98L yesterday; I'm not sure why it is being called 92L today.

CSU's forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season remain unchanged
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 185% of average. These are the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this summer. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1998, which featured 3 major hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Mitch; 1952, a relatively average year that featured just 7 named storms, but 3 major hurricanes; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2010 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 21% - 44% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 2). This is a good amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these August forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's August forecast uses a new formula, so we don't have any history on how the technique has behaved in the past. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.61 to 0.65 for their previous August forecasts using different techniques, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is scheduled to release their August forecast later today. NOAA will also be issuing their August forecast sometime in the next week.

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:


I'd waste neither the time nor the money on JB. It's not just that I have an issue with JB's caustic commentary, constant self-congratulation, endless peer-thrashing, or even his whiny and non-funny sarcasm; it's just that he is so very often wrong about things. And I'm not even refering to his non-scientific views on GW; I'm talking just about his weather forecasting "abilities". Yeah, he's right sometimes, often enough to call himself a meteorologist...but he's not accurate nearly often enough to act like the Weather God he too frequently professes to be.


+1
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Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurrican .sign up for a 30-Day trial ?


I'd waste neither the time nor the money on JB. It's not just that I have an issue with JB's caustic commentary, constant self-congratulation, endless peer-thrashing, or even his whiny and non-funny sarcasm; it's just that he is so very often wrong about things. And I'm not even refering to his non-scientific views on GW; I'm talking just about his weather forecasting "abilities". Yeah, he's right sometimes, often enough to call himself a meteorologist...but he's not accurate nearly often enough to act like the Weather God he too frequently professes to be.
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Quoting angiest:


Couldn't find the original post...
Conditions are unfavourable to develop an organized tropical cyclone, but that doesn't mean conditions are unfavourable for the development of a semi-organized convective system.

Some of the same atmospheric conditions that are the death of TC's are what cause supercells and mesoscale-convective systems (primarily being shear).


Certain amounts of shear can vent storms, almost like a supercharger on a car. Gets the cool air out of them allowing warm air to rush in and force its way upwards.

There is no "this will happen book" on weather.
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408. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting mrpuertorico:
So stormw any thoughts on how much moisture PR might get from colin.

I was gonna ask the same thing. My mom hates rain, but I love it, unless it turns into flooding.
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St. Eustatius, Golden Rock, and Nevis have winds out of westerly directions. Anywhere from W to SW.
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18.4N and 64W between St Thomas and St Martin moving WNW near 22mph.. very weak cirucluation with little if any convection.
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Quoting StormChaser81:


It's nature, any thing is possible. It is just a strong low pressure system.


Couldn't find the original post...
Conditions are unfavourable to develop an organized tropical cyclone, but that doesn't mean conditions are unfavourable for the development of a semi-organized convective system.

Some of the same atmospheric conditions that are the death of TC's are what cause supercells and mesoscale-convective systems (primarily being shear).
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So stormw any thoughts on how much moisture PR might get from colin.
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18.4N and 64W between St Thomas and St Martin moving WNW near 22mph.. very weak cirucluation with little if any convection
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
where's them louisiana boys at? i see one!

weather in my area has been not normal for weeks probably about a month. we keep on getting fog in here and that is not normal for this area. it's like we are close to the ocean. i don't get it!


I'm in here just lurking today
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Quoting srada:
I just dont understand how the forecasters are saying unfavorable conditions for development but yet Colin keeps intensifying..this storm might just make it to a major before all is said and done with it..
A system needs to organize before it intensifies. And in reality the remnants of Colin aren't organizing much, the recent blow up of convection is just because of the diffluent flow provided by the TUTT.
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Quoting WaterWitch11:
where's them louisiana boys at? i see one!

weather in my area has been not normal for weeks probably about a month. we keep on getting fog in here and that is not normal for this area. it's like we are close to the ocean. i don't get it!



right here!
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396. xcool
MiamiHurricanes09 LOL, I'll just use my mom's. However, I read that if you cancel it before 30 days they won't charge you...so I'll just cancel it in 29 days


/yea .cancel 27 days
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, I'll just use my mom's. However, I read that if you cancel it before 30 days they won't charge you...so I'll just cancel it in 29 days.


A lot of places say that until you try to cancel and there was print in 2 size at the bottom, DOH.
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Quoting Drakoen:


You need a credit card on file so Joe can drain out the money out of your account after your 30 day trail is up.

I don't think Miami has a credit card.
LOL, I don't, that's why I'll just use my mom's. However, I read that if you cancel it before 30 days they won't charge you...so I'll just cancel it in 29 days.
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393. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting srada:
I just dont understand how the forecasters are saying unfavorable conditions for development but yet Colin keeps intensifying..this storm might just make it to a major before all is said and done with it..


It's nature, any thing is possible. It is just a strong low pressure system.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Mid-August thru October is prime time for Fla & The SE

Right on time, seems like.
Indeed.
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Quoting xcool:
MiamiHurrican .sign up for a 30-Day trial ?


You need a credit card on file so Joe can drain out the money out of your account after your 30 day trail is up.

I don't think Miami has a credit card.
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Starting to get some very heavy showers in the mountains here in Dominica. Result of slack winds & day time heating all a result of ex Colin pulling away to our N.
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Quoting StormW:


Sure...he was showing the patter with the 500mb height anomalies. Right now, the 500 mb positive height anomaly is centered very far south (what we see in water vapor imagery). With it that far south, and bringing the killer heat with it, it has a tendency to distort the upward motion in the Atlantic, as the focus of heat isn't ALL in the Atlantic.

Come near the 18th to 20th of this month, and from what I gather, Sept., the 500 mb positive height anomaly is supposed to be located very far north, near Nova Scotia, and pressures are supposed to lower more over the Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR. With a cooler pattern over the SE U.S., this will focus upward motion more in the Atlantic and BOOM!. He also pointed out the the coming set up puts the SEUS and FLA. in play.
Very similar pattern to 2005 with the ridging focused in the NE. Gonna be an interesting several months...
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Quoting SLU:


Where are they? They can sometimes be localized winds. Winds have been SW - W all morning in St. Lucia but they are not directly associated with Colin.


Check the station history from the weather stations in the northern Lesser Antilles.
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where's them louisiana boys at? i see one!

weather in my area has been not normal for weeks probably about a month. we keep on getting fog in here and that is not normal for this area. it's like we are close to the ocean. i don't get it!
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Maybe at the 8pm TWO we might have two 30% which would be Colin and 92L and a 20% over out CV AOI/WAVE
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Quoting StormW:


Sure...he was showing the pattern with the 500mb height anomalies. Right now, the 500 mb positive height anomaly is centered very far south (what we see in water vapor imagery). With it that far south, and bringing the killer heat with it, it has a tendency to distort the upward motion in the Atlantic, as the focus of heat isn't ALL in the Atlantic.

Come near the 18th to 20th of this month, and from what I gather, Sept., the 500 mb positive height anomaly is supposed to be located very far north, near Nova Scotia, and pressures are supposed to lower more over the Gulf, Caribbean, and MDR. With a cooler pattern over the SE U.S., this will focus upward motion more in the Atlantic and BOOM!. He also pointed out the the coming set up puts the SEUS and FLA. in play.



Mid-August thru October is prime time for Fla & The SE

Right on time, seems like.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
he is still moving too fast to close it off im thinking
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
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380. SLU
When the trade winds are weakened, west winds can occur in the Lesser Antilles as a result of sea breeze effects.
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4 majors hurricanes + a half of one. lol!
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378. xcool
MiamiHurrican .sign up for a 30-Day trial ?
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
377. SLU
Quoting Drakoen:
There are multiple reports from stations located within the northern Lesser Antilles of winds out of the west


Where are they? They can sometimes be localized winds. Winds have been SW - W all morning in St. Lucia but they are not directly associated with Colin.
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Very large outflow boundaries being coughed up in the western quadrant by the remnants of Colin.

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375. srada
I just dont understand how the forecasters are saying unfavorable conditions for development but yet Colin keeps intensifying..this storm might just make it to a major before all is said and done with it..
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Is that a low forming off the coast of louisiana?
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371. xcool
extreme236 .i agree
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting Drakoen:
There are multiple reports from stations located within the northern Lesser Antilles of winds out of the west


Recon's not finding that however. Link?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23913
There are multiple reports from stations located within the northern Lesser Antilles of winds out of the west
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368. SLU
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.


I suspected that from the time the recon arrived just before 16z.
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Twave SW of CV islands IMO will probably be our next invest. 92L and exColin not looking too bad.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041754
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


It should have been 30% for both.
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365. xcool
Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Wednesday, August 4, 2010 810 am EDT/710 am CDT

Discussion

Remnant Low Pressure Colin:
Tropical Storm Colin was downgraded to a remnant low pressure system late yesterday afternoon and is located this morning about 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands. The reason why Colin was downgraded was because the combination of a low-level easterly jet, strong high pressure and stronger wind shear than what was anticipated basically decapitated Colin and the low-level center outran the convection. It should be noted that analysis this morning indicates that the mid level center is still fairly strong. So, I expect the strong shear to continue through tonight and possibly into part of Thursday; however, after Thursday, both the shear and Colin’s forward speed are forecast to dramatically decrease and it looks fairly likely that regeneration into a tropical storm could occur as soon as late Friday or Saturday. This is why I have not removed the webpage dedicated to Colin, since I do expect regeneration and then intensification.

In the short term, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely across the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands today into tonight as the remnant low Colin passes just northeast of you folks.

Looking further out, the environmental conditions late this week into this weekend may be quite favorable and basically the further west it can get over the next few days, the higher the risk on the US East Coast. The NOGAPS model is the furthest west and forecasts Colin to be intensifying while it approaches the coast of South and North Carolina early next week. Many of the other hurricane track models seem to have shifted to the east a bit overnight and curve the storm out to sea around 68 or 69 West Longitude. The European model is kind of interesting as it initially forecasts Colin to curve northward around 68 West Longitude on Saturday, but then be pushed westward towards the North Carolina coast by high pressure to its north on Sunday and Monday.

I continue to stick to my guns and think that Colin will track west of most of the hurricane track models. I am just having a really hard time believing that the weakness to the north will pick up a weak system like this in just 24 to 48 hours. This is what I am thinking for a track and intensity over the next five days:


Thursday Morning: 20 North Latitude, 67.5 West Longitude. 30 mph remnant low.
Friday Morning: 23.5 North Latitude, 71.5 West Longitude. 30 mph remnant low.
Saturday Morning: 25.5 North Latitude, 71.0 West Longitude. 40 mph tropical storm.
Sunday Morning: 28.0 North Latitude, 70.9 West Longitude. 50-55 mph tropical storm.
Monday Morning: 30.0 North Latitude, 73.0 West Longitude. 75 mph hurricane.


So, bottom line is that I do not think we have heard the last from Colin and regeneration and then intensification seems fairly likely this weekend. Needless to say, I will be monitoring things closely over the next few days and will keep you all updated.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Thursday morning.

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
364. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 041749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2010


TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
COLIN IS ABOUT 125 NM NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER...PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W.
THE REMNANTS OF COLIN WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE SLOW TO DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KT.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 041754
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN INDICATE THAT
THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...
THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20
TO 25 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND
VIRGIN ISLANDS ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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20/20 for both systems.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23913

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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