CSU leaves their hurricane forecast unchanged; 92L and Colin's remains worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin was ripped apart by wind shear yesterday, and the storm's remnants are passing just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today. Most of the heaviest thunderstorms are passing north of the islands, as seen on Guadeloupe radar. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows this. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the disturbance is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots over Colin's remains this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours, though, and Colin's remnants will need to be monitored for re-development.

Forecast for Colin's remains
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Thursday. Wind shear will continue to decline over the weekend, and this relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next four days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. A major trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 8pm EDT tonight. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Canada.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains and Invest 92L.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) in the south-central Caribbean is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 20% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. This storm was being tagged as 98L yesterday; I'm not sure why it is being called 92L today.

CSU's forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season remain unchanged
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 185% of average. These are the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this summer. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1998, which featured 3 major hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Mitch; 1952, a relatively average year that featured just 7 named storms, but 3 major hurricanes; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2010 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 21% - 44% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 2). This is a good amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these August forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's August forecast uses a new formula, so we don't have any history on how the technique has behaved in the past. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.61 to 0.65 for their previous August forecasts using different techniques, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is scheduled to release their August forecast later today. NOAA will also be issuing their August forecast sometime in the next week.

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Ascendant:


So let me get this straight...it sounds like you want there to be a lot of dangerous storms. Correct?


hmmmmm, I don't think anyone said anything about wanting....
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so florida is 100% in the clear??
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Quoting Snowlover123:


I'm not saying I like Joe B, but you opinionated your details by saying that Jeff Masters was better than Joe B. That's a matter of someone's opinion! Joe B has his own club on Facebook. Over 70,000 people would disagree with your opinion...



They can't forecast half as good so they tear him down to make they're pitiful selves feel better. It's ok we understand.
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Quoting StormW:


Hurricane won't eat the drone, will it? LOL!


Heh, do you watch Storm Chasers? Reid Timmer has been flying drones into supercells and dropping parachuted probes into the air around tornadoes. Actually has some of them get picked up by the tornado.
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505. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 ,tacobell. ha


But I'm in the mood for Chili's. XD

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hey! :D


Hello! Didn't you start school today, already out?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
my opinion:

slowish start to the hurricane season has given some folks a sense that it will continue this way. august & september will bring a freight train of storms.
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503. viman
Quoting Jeff9641:
San Juan
WeatherSave Location
Updated: Aug 4, 2010, 1:56pm Local TimeUPDATE DATAView Options
Right Now
Forecast:
Partly Cloudy Temperature: 87°F
Feels Like: 99° Past 24-hr: Precip: N/A
Snow: N/A Wind: From N at 9mph


Seems like some sort of surface circulation passing to the north of St. Thomas right now, completely devoid of any showers although some are starting to pop on the northern side of this rotation as per radar out of SJU.
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502. xcool




583
WHXX01 KWBC 041823
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1823 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922010) 20100804 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 1800 100805 0600 100805 1800 100806 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.0N 73.9W 14.8N 76.7W 15.7N 79.4W 16.5N 81.8W
BAMD 14.0N 73.9W 14.9N 76.5W 15.9N 78.8W 16.9N 80.9W
BAMM 14.0N 73.9W 14.8N 76.6W 15.8N 79.1W 16.8N 81.4W
LBAR 14.0N 73.9W 14.7N 76.5W 15.7N 79.1W 16.9N 81.7W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 1800 100807 1800 100808 1800 100809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 84.2W 18.4N 88.7W 20.0N 93.5W 21.9N 98.2W
BAMD 17.8N 82.7W 19.0N 86.4W 20.2N 90.3W 21.1N 94.5W
BAMM 17.7N 83.5W 19.0N 87.8W 20.8N 92.2W 22.6N 96.4W
LBAR 17.9N 84.0W 19.8N 88.0W 21.9N 91.5W 24.3N 94.0W
SHIP 57KTS 69KTS 77KTS 81KTS
DSHP 57KTS 58KTS 42KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 73.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 71.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 68.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting StormW:


Outstanding...wasn't picking on ya...just wanted to get the info out here on Docs blog.

GREAT JOB!! Just like the explanation in Met. class.


Thank you. :)

I suspect that this is part of why base reflectivity on all but the most intense tropical cyclones doesn't actually look that impressive. There is a lot of wind but the storms outside the eyewall are not themselves that powerful due to the conditions the cyclone needs in order to sustain them.
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Quoting StormW:


Shhhhhhh...not too loud. Mother Nature is teasing us at the moment, but giving us fair warning. When it goes, it's gonna go.


LOL...ok,ok. I see..... :)
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Quoting xcool:
728
WHXX01 KWBC 041834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE COLIN (AL042010) 20100804 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 1800 100805 0600 100805 1800 100806 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 61.2W 20.9N 64.3W 22.4N 66.8W 23.5N 68.2W
BAMD 19.4N 61.2W 20.9N 63.2W 22.5N 64.7W 24.1N 65.6W
BAMM 19.4N 61.2W 20.8N 63.6W 22.2N 65.6W 23.4N 66.6W
LBAR 19.4N 61.2W 21.3N 63.8W 23.2N 66.0W 24.7N 67.5W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 55KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 1800 100807 1800 100808 1800 100809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 68.9W 25.8N 68.9W 27.4N 69.0W 29.4N 70.7W
BAMD 25.5N 65.9W 28.1N 65.5W 30.3N 65.8W 31.6N 66.8W
BAMM 24.6N 67.3W 26.5N 67.0W 28.2N 67.0W 29.8N 68.7W
LBAR 26.4N 68.2W 28.6N 67.7W 31.6N 66.9W 34.7N 66.8W
SHIP 58KTS 63KTS 74KTS 79KTS
DSHP 58KTS 63KTS 74KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.4N LONCUR = 61.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 23KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 57.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 52.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

I said 1009 about 15mins. ago.
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Quoting Snowlover123:


Well, that's simply a matter of someone's opinion...
All opinions are not equal. Who are you going to consult about a pain in your stomach, an Md. or an M.Ed Psych? This brainiac bout to kill himself with self diagnosing.
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493. hercj
Quoting StormW:


I can imagine they are. The DC-8, just flying surveillance, not into the eye, correct?

Yeah Senior all of this is synoptic, no eyewall low level penny at all. What has got NOAA more concerned than anything else is the unmanned drone. The fact that they can keep this thing in the air so long, so cheep scares the crap out of the guys at Macdill.
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Hi Storm,

Do you think we will be seeing a definite increase in storms and strength as we move on to the peak season or will things be kinda like they have been - having trouble developing and then when they do, not being able to sustain it? (besides Alex of course)
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At 144 hours the 12z Euro has a cut off low developing from a frontal boundary dwelling in the NE GOMEX. The run hasn't finished, but it will be interesting to see what it does with it. There is also a 1014mb low with a closed isobar approaching the Lesser Antilles.

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The HWRF doesn't develop 92L much at all but does track the system up into the northwestern Caribbean which would be the system would have more time over water.
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483. xcool
728
WHXX01 KWBC 041834
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1834 UTC WED AUG 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE COLIN (AL042010) 20100804 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100804 1800 100805 0600 100805 1800 100806 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.4N 61.2W 20.9N 64.3W 22.4N 66.8W 23.5N 68.2W
BAMD 19.4N 61.2W 20.9N 63.2W 22.5N 64.7W 24.1N 65.6W
BAMM 19.4N 61.2W 20.8N 63.6W 22.2N 65.6W 23.4N 66.6W
LBAR 19.4N 61.2W 21.3N 63.8W 23.2N 66.0W 24.7N 67.5W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 55KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 50KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100806 1800 100807 1800 100808 1800 100809 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 68.9W 25.8N 68.9W 27.4N 69.0W 29.4N 70.7W
BAMD 25.5N 65.9W 28.1N 65.5W 30.3N 65.8W 31.6N 66.8W
BAMM 24.6N 67.3W 26.5N 67.0W 28.2N 67.0W 29.8N 68.7W
LBAR 26.4N 68.2W 28.6N 67.7W 31.6N 66.9W 34.7N 66.8W
SHIP 58KTS 63KTS 74KTS 79KTS
DSHP 58KTS 63KTS 74KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 19.4N LONCUR = 61.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 23KT
LATM12 = 17.0N LONM12 = 57.0W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 24KT
LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 52.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 30NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
482. hercj
Quoting hercj:

Hey Senior, have you heard NASA is getting into the Hurricane Recon game?
Quoting StormW:


No...didn't know that!

ok get this. today the are bringing the DC-8 from Drydon flight research center at Edwards AFB to Ft Lauderdale, the WB-57 which is a high altitude very fast recon aircraft similar to the U-2 is going to fly out of Ellington field in Houston and they are going to fly a global hawk drone out of drydon to park over the top of a cyclone at 60.000' for 20 hours or more to gather data. You can go to the nasa web and read about the different experiments they are going to conduct. The DC- 8 alone has about 10 or 11 different experiments. This is all in a effort to improve cyclogenesis and rapid intensification forecasting. and oh by the way. NOAA is furious.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


You think that will be typical this year?


No once we get into a good negative NAO that will allow the A/B high to come further westward pushing tracks further westward.
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478. xcool
takes it out to sea hmmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
If The GFS forecast came true we would be up to the F storm by August 20th with pretty much consecutive development of storms.
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Quoting JLPR2:



hey! :)

Hey! :D
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Quoting BA:


accuweather pro has a lot more resources than just JB, it is worth the cost imo, especially with all the model data (including the ecmwf now)

I pay here and for accuweather pro...in addition, I think JB is one of the best, simple as that :)


You can find every resource they offer on the internet for free. Might not be as nice, but same stuff.
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474. xcool
JLPR2 ,tacobell. ha
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Drakoen:
ECMWF 12z develops the wave south of the CV islands and takes it out to sea.



You think that will be typical this year?
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Quoting SLU:
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 73.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 71.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 68.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

1009MB? Cool.
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Here is what Drakoen was referencing to:

Here it is at 324 hours emerging off of Africa, as you can tell it already is a potent tropical storm.



By 384 hours it is a strong hurricane with 6 closed isobars and many hurricane force wind isobars. Also notice the tropical cyclone making landfall over the Yucatan.

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Quoting StormW:


Why?


Different energy sources? Tropical cyclones derive their energy from the evaporation of water from the sea surface, releasing heat. This energy gets pulled into the system's center and ejected into higher levels of the atmosphere (with a small amount sinking back to the surface). Under shear this mechanism is disrupted and the cyclone cannot properly ventilate itself.

For thunderstorms such as those forming over the plains, the energy source is moisture in the atmosphere and heat from the sun. Without shear the convective cell that develops does not form a cyclone (typically) and does not sustain itself. Under shear, the cell starts to rotate, forming a mesocyclone. The shear also tilts the cyclone, moving the downdraft away from the updraft and reducing the ability of the cell to destroy itself by feeding rain cooled air into the updraft. The rotation in a thunderstorm is what makes it a supercell, it is able to keep drawing in warm, moist, unstable air into the cell. The rotating updraft is also what causes the tornado to form, when it does.

These were not meant to be rigid explanations. :)
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Most of the computer guidance takes the remains of 04L to hurricane strength.
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467. bwi
I wish that buoy at 15n 75w was operating. Would be helpful to check on 92l.
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Quoting BA:


accuweather pro has a lot more resources than just JB, it is worth the cost imo, especially with all the model data (including the ecmwf now)

I pay here and for accuweather pro...in addition, I think JB is one of the best, simple as that :)


I don't have a problem with JB. Just my opinion though...
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465. SLU
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.0N LONCUR = 73.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 13.9N LONM12 = 71.0W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.4N LONM24 = 68.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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463. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:
JLPR2 .hey/93L soon. jmo



hey! :)
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8732
462. BA
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Don't think you can go on without JB's expert analysis? He isn't any better than any of the other experts. I'll take Dr. Masters over JB any day of the week. Which is why I pay for a WU sub not an inaccuweather sub.


accuweather pro has a lot more resources than just JB, it is worth the cost imo, especially with all the model data (including the ecmwf now)

I pay here and for accuweather pro...in addition, I think JB is one of the best, simple as that :)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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