CSU leaves their hurricane forecast unchanged; 92L and Colin's remains worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin was ripped apart by wind shear yesterday, and the storm's remnants are passing just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today. Most of the heaviest thunderstorms are passing north of the islands, as seen on Guadeloupe radar. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows this. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the disturbance is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots over Colin's remains this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours, though, and Colin's remnants will need to be monitored for re-development.

Forecast for Colin's remains
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Thursday. Wind shear will continue to decline over the weekend, and this relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next four days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. A major trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 8pm EDT tonight. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Canada.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains and Invest 92L.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) in the south-central Caribbean is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 20% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. This storm was being tagged as 98L yesterday; I'm not sure why it is being called 92L today.

CSU's forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season remain unchanged
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 185% of average. These are the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this summer. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1998, which featured 3 major hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Mitch; 1952, a relatively average year that featured just 7 named storms, but 3 major hurricanes; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2010 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 21% - 44% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 2). This is a good amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these August forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's August forecast uses a new formula, so we don't have any history on how the technique has behaved in the past. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.61 to 0.65 for their previous August forecasts using different techniques, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is scheduled to release their August forecast later today. NOAA will also be issuing their August forecast sometime in the next week.

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Hmm, why does the Navy and RAMMB site say Colin is still Colin? *sigh*
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Quoting truecajun:


that's so scary. after watching the perfect storm, i told my husband how glad i was that he wasn't a sailor, soldier, racecar driver, or football player.


It took me many years to get up the courage to watch that movie - same as Titanic - my daughter and I did not watch that for about 8 years after it came out - I didn't want to scare her about her Dad's job...
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Quoting jlp09550:


I've had to water all our plants to keep them from dying. And it's a little too hot to be watering almost daily.


uhhh. i'm usually diligent about watering with the hose and or buckets when it's dry, but it's just too hot. so instead, i've been hoping for rain. if none by the weekend, i'll have to get out there and water.
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Try neutragena 100 sunblock. When I would use it on the boat, i never got a tan. Nothing. But that was after years of being a butt head and loving the good glow of a tan. Not pushing a particular kind of sunblock - just know what works for me. Please...do it.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:
oh crap
AL, 04, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 123N, 403W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Look at the coords Alex, that is the initial ATCF?
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Quoting JLPR2:


you are looking at the wrong file
AL, 04, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 202N, 628W, 35, 1009, WV, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, S,

oh crap
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


That's no oil spill mission

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM COLIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0204A COLIN
C. 04/2230Z
D. 18.3N 60.4W
E. 04/2230Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Should have 2.5 hours left in the mission.


Oh.....I know that. But I never got updates from them past the northern GOM.

Mechanical issues? I really do not know what the deal is.

This is what I have from Google Earth.....and it has not updated since 8:00 pm.
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2155. JLPR2
Quoting AlexEmmett:

its a td agian atcf site says so
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912010_al042010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008021807
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END




you are looking at the wrong file
AL, 04, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 202N, 628W, 35, 1009, WV, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, S,
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I am hoping that Colin's convection does the same thing too, heads more toward the NW like it has done some today. It must be different knowing you have a loved-one out at sea when you have a storm out there (don't know what that's like). This is an important reminder that the so-called 'fish' storms (storms that don't end up near landmasses) are also a danger.


Exactly why I don't like the term fish storm - there are actually lots of ships just about everywhere on the water and someone is always getting affected even though they try to avoid known storms. I think the developing ones are the most dangerous since they can develop right on top of them like Andrea did when they didn't expect it...
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Quoting pvbeachbum:


But why have we not gotten any information from recon yet then?


No clue. I could see grounds to cancel the mission for sure. However, they usually make that known. I will say that updates this year from a lot of sources, not just the NHC have been slow coming. Seems different this year than years past.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:
oh crap
AL, 04, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 123N, 403W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

its a td agian atcf site says so
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al912010_al042010.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201008021807
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 04, 2010, TD, O, 2010080106, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL042010
AL, 04, 2010073106, , BEST, 0, 88N, 329W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010073112, , BEST, 0, 89N, 335W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 75, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010073118, , BEST, 0, 91N, 342W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 75, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080100, , BEST, 0, 93N, 347W, 20, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 75, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080106, , BEST, 0, 96N, 353W, 20, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 170, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 04, 2010080112, , BEST, 0, 101N, 361W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 170, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 04, 2010080118, , BEST, 0, 106N, 370W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 160, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 04, 2010080200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 380W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 04, 2010080206, , BEST, 0, 118N, 391W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
AL, 04, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 123N, 403W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2151. Ossqss
Never mind, I found it.

Discrepancies In Sea Ice Measurements
Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting pvbeachbum:


They are a cargo ship on their way to PR from Jax - they are currently east of the central Bahamas heading right into the potential track on Ex-Colin - I am hoping it starts to move NW so they can sneak under it to the south on their route to PR before it develops. They were under the developing Andrea a few years ago off the Virginia coast, and had a lot of damage and injuries.


that's so scary. after watching the perfect storm, i told my husband how glad i was that he wasn't a sailor, soldier, racecar driver, or football player.
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oh crap
AL, 04, 2010080212, , BEST, 0, 123N, 403W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 50, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting melwerle:
Hey kids - may be weather related- hope i don't get "banned" Long time here and just wanted to say - it's sunny out, hot, great outdoor weather. Please wear your sun block. I know it seems stupid when you're younger and I thought it was too. Not So stupid today. I sailed for 20 years wore sunblock intermittently. Today all hell broke loose with docs thinking it was melanoma and had surgery immediately. Military medicine is amazing. Looking at 4 - 5 more reconstructive surgeries - wear your friggin sunblock. It's not that much of a hassle. DO it.

\
VERY good advice and also weather related!!!! Very scary when docs find something that they are suspicious of!!!I have had 5 skin cancers removed and the first was when I was 20.AND I wear sunblock religiously!!!
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


That's no oil spill mission

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM COLIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0204A COLIN
C. 04/2230Z
D. 18.3N 60.4W
E. 04/2230Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Should have 2.5 hours left in the mission.


But why have we not gotten any information from recon yet then?
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Quoting pvbeachbum:


They are a cargo ship on their way to PR from Jax - they are currently east of the central Bahamas heading right into the potential track on Ex-Colin - I am hoping it starts to move NW so they can sneak under it to the south on their route to PR before it develops. They were under the developing Andrea a few years ago off the Virginia coast, and had a lot of damage and injuries.


Yeah, I am hoping that Colin's convection does the same thing too, heads more toward the NW like it has done some today. It must be different knowing you have a loved-one out at sea when you have a storm out there (don't know what that's like). This is an important reminder that the so-called 'fish' storms (storms that don't end up near landmasses) are also a danger.
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Pottery -I'm sure you've seen it a thousand times but here is for your dog. Ours are part of our family - I'm so sorry.

Just this side of heaven is a place called Rainbow Bridge.

When an animal dies that has been especially close to someone here, that pet goes to Rainbow Bridge. There are meadows and hills for all of our special friends so they can run and play together. There is plenty of food, water and sunshine, and our friends are warm and comfortable.

All the animals who had been ill and old are restored to health and vigor. Those who were hurt or maimed are made whole and strong again, just as we remember them in our dreams of days and times gone by. The animals are happy and content, except for one small thing; they each miss someone very special to them, who had to be left behind.

They all run and play together, but the day comes when one suddenly stops and looks into the distance.

His bright eyes are intent. His eager body quivers. Suddenly he begins to run from the group, flying over the green grass, his legs carrying him faster and faster.

You have been spotted, and when you and your special friend finally meet, you cling together in joyous reunion, never to be parted again. The happy kisses rain upon your face; your hands again caress the beloved head, and you look once more into the trusting eyes of your pet, so long gone from your life but never absent from your heart.

Then you cross Rainbow Bridge together....

Author unknown...



To Enter your Baby as
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Quoting truecajun:


i hope i get some rain from it. my trees and plants are wilting from thirst


I've had to water all our plants to keep them from dying. And it's a little too hot to be watering almost daily.
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2143. JLPR2
Quoting jlp09550:
Looks like a train in the Atlantic. I wonder how closely the NHC is watching this..



Looks like our CATL explosion is the result of the TW that was south of the Cape Verde Islands and the blob of convection that emerged yesterday from Africa.
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Quoting melwerle:
Hey kids - may be weather related- hope i don't get "banned" Long time here and just wanted to say - it's sunny out, hot, great outdoor weather. Please wear your sun block. I know it seems stupid when you're younger and I thought it was too. Not So stupid today. I sailed for 20 years wore sunblock intermittently. Today all hell broke loose with docs thinking it was melanoma and had surgery immediately. Military medicine is amazing. Looking at 4 - 5 more reconstructive surgeries - wear your friggin sunblock. It's not that much of a hassle. DO it.


thanks for the advice. i just (last week) purchased sunscreen for daily use. i hate wearing it everyday, but in long run, i suppose it's worth.

hang in there with your surgeries.
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Quoting AllStar17:


I think it was just an oil spill mission.


That's no oil spill mission

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM COLIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0204A COLIN
C. 04/2230Z
D. 18.3N 60.4W
E. 04/2230Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Should have 2.5 hours left in the mission.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


In the surface analyses from the NHC, Colin's remnant has actually been moving steadily to the WNW. I believe though that some are seeing Colin stalling because the center is reforming to the NE in the deep convection. I am personally not sold on the center reformation occurring yet. Not so sure about that.
thanks! sorry for the re-post. for some reason my post are taking forever to appear:)
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2139. angiest
Quoting BreadandCircuses:
The New Orleans AAA baseball team's mascot is a nutria, with the big yellow teeth and all. Has to be the goofiest mascot around, right up there with the UC Santa Barbara Banana Slugs.


St. Louis College of Pharmacy Eutectics
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting melwerle:
Hey kids - may be weather related- hope i don't get "banned" Long time here and just wanted to say - it's sunny out, hot, great outdoor weather. Please wear your sun block. I know it seems stupid when you're younger and I thought it was too. Not So stupid today. I sailed for 20 years wore sunblock intermittently. Today all hell broke loose with docs thinking it was melanoma and had surgery immediately. Military medicine is amazing. Looking at 4 - 5 more reconstructive surgeries - wear your friggin sunblock. It's not that much of a hassle. DO it.


Sorry to hear that Melwerle - I sail-raced for many years also and was not as diligent with my sunblock as I should have been. Hope all turns out well for you...
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Quoting blsealevel:
Lot of light flashing in the sky's just getting to me looks to be moving rather fast to
ant going to last to long.


i hope i get some rain from it. my trees and plants are wilting from thirst
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


LOL, you guys are having a light show in LA, we are having one here coming in fast from Virginia, I am in Raleigh, NC.



Where is your hubby's ship at?


They are a cargo ship on their way to PR from Jax - they are currently east of the central Bahamas heading right into the potential track on Ex-Colin - I am hoping it starts to move NW so they can sneak under it to the south on their route to PR before it develops. They were under the developing Andrea a few years ago off the Virginia coast, and had a lot of damage and injuries.
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2133. Ossqss
Quoting aspectre:
1717 Skyepony "NW passage, almost open [Arctic sea ice map]"

As is the NorthEast Passage, though the sea ice extent has yet to reach the 2003 minimum...

- - - - - - - - link to large map - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - link to large chart - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
...which makes me wonder if the years odd enough to make headlines will soon be the ones in which either the NorthWestPassage or the NorthEastPassage fails to open for regular*shipping from earlyAugust through midOctober.

* Continuously navigable without icebreaker escorts.




Why the discrepancy with the DMI?
Melt pools on top of the ice?

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

Member Since: June 12, 2005 Posts: 6 Comments: 8186
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


They are supposed to be, it was never canceled. No info though.


I think it was just an oil spill mission.
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Hey kids - may be weather related- hope i don't get "banned" Long time here and just wanted to say - it's sunny out, hot, great outdoor weather. Please wear your sun block. I know it seems stupid when you're younger and I thought it was too. Not So stupid today. I sailed for 20 years wore sunblock intermittently. Today all hell broke loose with docs thinking it was melanoma and had surgery immediately. Military medicine is amazing. Looking at 4 - 5 more reconstructive surgeries - wear your friggin sunblock. It's not that much of a hassle. DO it.
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Quoting wfyweather:
Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating... correct?


They are supposed to be, it was never canceled. No info though.
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Quoting jlp09550:


Where are you at? Can't wait for those storms to reach here. :D


LOL, you guys are having a light show in LA, we are having one here coming in fast from Virginia, I am in Raleigh, NC.

Quoting pvbeachbum:
I hate not having updates or recon on Ex-Colin tonight - by tomorrow my hubby's ship will be much closer to it... reminds me of the last storm where I tracked the ship and the developing storm to see how they intersected - but this time I don't have enough information on ex-Colin...


Where is your hubby's ship at?
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Refreshing isn't it? To talk about 92L, ex-Colin and the CATL disturbances....instead of drama.




it's a freakin rush... I tell you that lol I LOVE THIS STUFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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See yall tommorrow, I going out side to soak up some of that wind and watch the light show
Thanks
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Can you all not get access to the site or something? I can, and its not there. :\

why would there be an 11pm update, there is no active systems, just invests. Will be just the normal T.W.O's
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Quoting pvbeachbum:


Hi Truecajun - the poetry was for Pottery who had to put down his 13 year old black lab today. We were sending condolences to him and his wife...


awww. that's hard. i had to stay with our old childhood family dog as she was put to sleep a few years ago. it affected me more than i expected. sorry for your loss, pottery.
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I hate not having updates or recon on Ex-Colin tonight - by tomorrow my hubby's ship will be much closer to it... reminds me of the last storm where I tracked the ship and the developing storm to see how they intersected - but this time I don't have enough information on ex-Colin...
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Looks like a train in the Atlantic. I wonder how closely the NHC is watching this..

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x-cool, allstar,anyone else who wants too, can you answer this-what would cause ex-colin to stall? is this stall a possible shift? if so, a shift in what direction? thanks in advance:)
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CMC------------------http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/cmc/2010080412/850vort0.png
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Lot of light flashing in the sky's just getting to me looks to be moving rather fast to
ant going to last to long.
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Quoting sarahjola:
what would cause ex-colin to stall? is this stall a possible shift? if so, a shift in what direction? thanks in advance:)


In the surface analyses from the NHC, Colin's remnant has actually been moving steadily to the WNW. I believe though that some are seeing Colin stalling because the center is reforming to the NE in the deep convection. I am personally not sold on the center reformation occurring yet. Not so sure about that.
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Quoting alaina1085:

Yup thats coming for me!
And we are having the best light show


Where are you at? Can't wait for those storms to reach here. :D
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Quoting truecajun:


hello everyone. i'm just logging in. i'm wondering, why the poetry?

also, check this out

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/flash-rb.html


Hi Truecajun - the poetry was for Pottery who had to put down his 13 year old black lab today. We were sending condolences to him and his wife...
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Quoting sarahjola:
it was a good light show:)


bonnie dropped 7 inches of rain on a neighborhood about a mile from my house. Almost everyone in the subdivision had water in their homes. really weird because all of the other neighborhoods in the area were fine, including mine??
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2114. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:


GFS, ECMWF, NOGAPS, CMC develop this.


That's too much model support!
One or two should drop it on its next run. XD
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Quoting blsealevel:

Yup thats coming for me!
And we are having the best light show
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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