CSU leaves their hurricane forecast unchanged; 92L and Colin's remains worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin was ripped apart by wind shear yesterday, and the storm's remnants are passing just north of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands today. Most of the heaviest thunderstorms are passing north of the islands, as seen on Guadeloupe radar. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico also shows this. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the disturbance is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Wind shear is a high 20 - 25 knots over Colin's remains this morning. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage over the past few hours, though, and Colin's remnants will need to be monitored for re-development.

Forecast for Colin's remains
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 15 - 20 knots on Thursday. Wind shear will continue to decline over the weekend, and this relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next four days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. A major trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 8pm EDT tonight. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Canada.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains and Invest 92L.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) in the south-central Caribbean is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday, or the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 20% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. This storm was being tagged as 98L yesterday; I'm not sure why it is being called 92L today.

CSU's forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season remain unchanged
A very active Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2010, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued today, August 4, by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team continues to call for 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index 185% of average. These are the same numbers as their June 2 forecast. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 14 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast continues to call for a much above-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (50% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (49% chance, 30% chance is average). The risk of a major hurricane in the Caribbean is also high, at 64% (42% is average.)

The forecasters cited four main reasons for an active season:

1) Moderate La Niña conditions should be present during the most active portion of this year's hurricane season (August - October). This should lead to reduced levels of vertical wind shear compared with what was witnessed in 2009.

2) Current SST anomalies are running at near-record warm levels. These very warm waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are very conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

3) Very low sea level pressures prevailed during June and July over the tropical Atlantic. Weaker high pressure typically results in weaker trade winds that are commonly associated with more active hurricane seasons.

4) We are in the midst of a multi-decadal era of major hurricane activity, which began in 1995. Major hurricanes cause 80 - 85 percent of normalized hurricane damage.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this summer. Those four years were 2005, the worst hurricane season of all time; 1998, which featured 3 major hurricanes, including Category 5 Hurricane Mitch; 1952, a relatively average year that featured just 7 named storms, but 3 major hurricanes; and 1958, a severe season with 5 major hurricanes. The mean activity for these five years was 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2010 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team over the past 12 years have had a skill 21% - 44% higher than a "no-skill" climatology forecast for number of named storms, hurricanes, intense hurricanes, and the ACE index (Figure 2). This is a good amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these August forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's August forecast uses a new formula, so we don't have any history on how the technique has behaved in the past. An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.61 to 0.65 for their previous August forecasts using different techniques, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Comparison of the percent improvement over climatology for May and August seasonal hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic from NOAA, CSU and TSR from 1999-2009 (May) and 1998-2009 (August), using the Mean Squared Error. The British firm Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) will issue their outlook for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season on June 4. Image credit: Verification of 12 years of NOAA seasonal hurricane forecasts, National Hurricane Center.

The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is scheduled to release their August forecast later today. NOAA will also be issuing their August forecast sometime in the next week.

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Orcasystems:
Man your battle stations... Model Shift left on Colin... Florida & the Carols are back in play


Not what I wanted to hear - but what I have been suspecting all day - the trough may not be enough to curve Colin... looks like the models show intensification also...
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2211. will45
Quoting AllStar17:
I am starting to wonder if the trough of low pressure will not totally recurve Colin out to sea.


He is getting too far Left to suit me
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Man your battle stations... Model Shift left on Colin... Florida & the Carols are back in play



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI

oh boy and i thought the blog was insane tonight
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2209. angiest
Quoting Orcasystems:
Man your battle stations... Model Shift left on Colin... Florida is back in play



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Has anyone done a model verification for the dynamic models on Colin? They still seem unbelievable.
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2208. Ossqss
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oss, I just think the quality of sources should be investigated. Anthony Watts is not a meteorlogist. He couldn't even get halfway through undergrad. And he claimed he was a certified AMS met before he was busted. And Anthony Watts has never written a peer-reviewed paper.

And 'Steve Goddard' is not a real person. He appeared on the internet in April 2008. No papers published. No record of him being employed by anyone. He's a cyber creation. A made up person. And it is not assassination to reveal the truth about your sources.


Do you know how foolish that comment is? This is about two different (official) sources for the same info. Not your perception of such. Quite telling for sure. Does your opinion change it? No, realize that and grow up. Gheeze,

I am outta here! Consider the source is all I will say, the data and the opinion are two different things >>>>>>>>
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2207. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2155. JLPR2 3:36 AM GMT on August 05, 2010


you are looking at the wrong file
AL, 04, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 202N, 628W, 35, 1009, WV, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 125, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, COLIN, S,


Tropical Wave category.. O_o
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I am starting to wonder if the trough of low pressure will not totally recurve Colin out to sea.
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Quoting ho77yw00d:


ah ur the best :) thanks!!


your welcome.

i'm not big on bookmarking, so i just google atlantic goes east

click on teh first search result and there you go the noaa
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12z GFS



00z GFS
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Man your battle stations... Model Shift left on Colin... Florida & the Carols are back in play



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting jlp09550:


Here you go:




thanks :)

Quoting texwarhawk:


Link


thanks to u 2 :)
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Quoting Ossqss:


Dude, give it up. We are comparing two data sets, not your personality preference. Gheeze!

Do you have any other position aside from irrelevant character assassination in your bag of tricks ? Wow, amazing......


don't bother arguing with him. no matter what you tell him, he tells you your source is not credible. however, his always are according to him. it's what he does. he's the czar of discrediting
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2198. JLPR2
Quoting truecajun:
looks like the convection on colin just keeps firing up in the same spot

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html


yep I noticed that, maybe ex Colin is ditching its old open circulation and forming a new one?
Hence the convection is stalled over the new LLC
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8459
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Funny thing is my hair used to be just as red?

Age gets to ya.


sure does. 30 has been a rude awakening in so many ways. lol
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Quoting ho77yw00d:
can someone post or link satellite imagery for colin plz


Link
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Quoting truecajun:


whole atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

colin and other wave

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rb.html


ah ur the best :) thanks!!
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hello everyone!
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Quoting ho77yw00d:
can someone post or link satellite imagery for colin plz


Here you go:

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Quoting ho77yw00d:
can someone post or link satellite imagery for colin plz


whole atlantic

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

colin and other wave

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/flash-rb.html
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there is noway this is only a 50 percent chance it a sixty or higher
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Quoting AllStar17:


Link?


Link

Scroll down a little to the computer models.
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
2189. Ossqss
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Anthony Watts? That's not a credible source. Considering he had no degree, and flunked out of Purdue end of his sophomore year.


Dude, give it up. We are comparing two data sets, not your personality preference. Gheeze!

Do you have any other position aside from irrelevant character assassination in your bag of tricks ? Wow, amazing......
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2188. Buhdog
Been a member since 2005 and I agree with everything Baha said...there have been fights since day one.
Lefty420 was the first to quit that i remember. I seem to be one who laughs at wild forecasts, shower curtains, chasers, and "convention". I guess since i lurk these things don't bother me...I am just surprised some of the bloggers still feed the trolls. I love Wunderground still....faults and all.

Cape Coral somehow got skipped in a ton of activity in SWFL....I hate when that happens.
Member Since: July 30, 2005 Posts: 1 Comments: 958
2187. xcool
HA
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2186. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Anthony Watts? That's not a credible source. Considering he had no degree, and flunked out of Purdue end of his sophomore year.
so why take a shot at the guy for it
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Quoting truecajun:
looks like the convection on colin just keeps firing up in the same spot

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html


Funny thing is my hair used to be just as red?

Age gets to ya.
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can someone post or link satellite imagery for colin plz
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Quoting pvbeachbum:
Well - need to go to bed now - will check back in on Colin in the AM and hope that it hasn't blown up to much. Keep all the sailors and ships in your prayers for safety this entire season please... fish storms still affect them!


good night. i'll have to add them to my prayers when i pray for those in the areas of landfall. i never really thought about the seamen.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


That's no oil spill mission

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM COLIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0204A COLIN
C. 04/2230Z
D. 18.3N 60.4W
E. 04/2230Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

Should have 2.5 hours left in the mission.


What? I thought the recon flight this afternoon was the only recon flight for today. There's another one this evening (thought there is only once per day when a system is not a tropical cyclone)? I really too want to know what they are seeing now.
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2180. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOMENG
11:00 AM PhST August 5 2010
=============================================

"Domeng" has weakened slightly as it moves in a West Southwest direction.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Domeng located at 19.1°N 124.0°E or 230 kms southeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 4 knots.

Signal Warning #1
==================

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Aurora
2.Quirino
3.Nueva Viscaya
4.Benguet
5.La Union
6.Mt. Province
7.Isabela
8.Ifugao
9.Kalinga
10.Apayao
11.Abra
12.Ilocos Sur
13.Ilocos Norte
14.Cagayan
15.Calayan Is.
16.Babuyan Is.
17.Batanes Group of islands

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Depression Domeng and the Low Pressure Area (LPA) estimated at 850 kms East of Luzon near 16.5°N 131.5°E would still enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring rains over the country.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin alert to be issued at 5 PM today.
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Good night everyone!

Blog Update!

August 4, 2010 - 9:15 PM EDT - Tropics Getting Active
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
looks like the convection on colin just keeps firing up in the same spot

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html
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Quoting truecajun:


your lil strawberry top is a cutie.


Thank you :-)
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Quoting xcool:
35w-10n big wave move WNW JMO

yah that wave is scarying the crap out of me its a BAMF(DANE COOK SKIT)
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2174. xcool



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Well - need to go to bed now - will check back in on Colin in the AM and hope that it hasn't blown up to much. Keep all the sailors and ships in your prayers for safety this entire season please... fish storms still affect them!
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2172. xcool
35w-10n big wave move WNW JMO
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Quoting melwerle:
Try neutragena 100 sunblock. When I would use it on the boat, i never got a tan. Nothing. But that was after years of being a butt head and loving the good glow of a tan. Not pushing a particular kind of sunblock - just know what works for me. Please...do it.


That is what my daughter and I now use when we are out in the sun - the 100 or the 85 - we never get anything either even after a whole day of being out... She likes the dry touch feel of it too. We will be taking plenty of it on the girl's beach trip we are going on with my Mom and Aunt in 2 weeks!
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
One must know right file to go to for storms, lol. The invest file is dropped once a storm has formed.


your lil strawberry top is a cutie.
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Quoting jlp09550:
Hmm, why does the Navy and RAMMB site say Colin is still Colin? *sigh*

have you seen the sat lately its a dead fliping give away
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Quoting hurricanejunky:
The 0000z models have shifted west considerably. The models are wildly flailing about this season thus far. They're all over the place like a compass needle in the Bermuda triangle...oh wait, they're all clustered over the Bermuda triangle (cue twilight zone music here)...


Link?
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Quoting truecajun:


uhhh. i'm usually diligent about watering with the hose and or buckets when it's dry, but it's just too hot. so instead, i've been hoping for rain. if none by the weekend, i'll have to get out there and water.


i wasn't saying uhhhhh like i don't know, i was trying to say ugghhh like i don't want to
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One must know right file to go to for storms, lol. The invest file is dropped once a storm has formed.
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The 0000z models have shifted west considerably. The models are wildly flailing about this season thus far. They're all over the place like a compass needle in the Bermuda triangle...oh wait, they're all clustered over the Bermuda triangle (cue twilight zone music here)...
Member Since: August 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Comments: 2895
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Look at the coords Alex, that is the initial ATCF?

good point
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Hmm, why does the Navy and RAMMB site say Colin is still Colin? *sigh*
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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