Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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3224. mikatnight
3:12 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Colorado State team sticking to June hurricane season forecast
August 4th, 2010, 11:07 am by Eliot Kleinberg

The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University is sticking to its June prediction of 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The historical 1950-2000 average is 9.6, 5.9 and 2.3.

In November 2009, the team had predicted a “well above average” 2010 season, with 11 to 16 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. In April, it got more specific, calling for 15, eight and four. It then tweaked its forecast more in June.

For today’s update, the team continued to cite unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of La Niña, the opposite of El Niño, the warm water phenomenon that tends to hinder hurricane activity.

“We have witnessed the development of La Niña conditions over the past couple of months, and we believe that a moderate La Niña will be present over the next several months, which is associated with decreased levels of vertical wind shear and increased hurricane activity,” veteran forecaster William Gray said in a release.

Gray’s protege, Phil Klotzbach, also cited especially warm surface temperatures in both the tropics and the North Atlantic.

The team gave a 75 percent chance a major hurricane will strike somewhere along the 3,690-mile coastline from Maine to Florida to Texas; the 1950-2000 historical average is 52 percent.

Florida’s 1,350-mile coastline, from Jacksonville around to Pensacola, accounts for a little more than one third of that. And the 90 or so miles of coastline from Boca Raton to Fort Pierce represents about two percent of the total.

The Colorado State team gave a 50 percent chance a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula; the long-term average is 31 percent.

On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will update its May forecast, which had called for 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes and 3-7 major hurricanes.

The private forecasting company AccuWeather has reported its hurricane expert, Joe Bastardi, is expecting 16-18 named storms.

For the record, in 2009:

The Colorado State University team called for 14 named storms, of at least tropical storm strength, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of those major hurricanes.

NOAA predicted 14, four-to-seven, and one-to-three.

Accuweather.com predicted 13 storms, eight becoming hurricanes.

They all were pretty much off the mark. The season ended up with 9, 3 and 2
Member Since: October 18, 2005 Posts: 4 Comments: 3052
3223. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:58 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Silly left winger...
You make that sound so sexy.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
3222. nyhurricaneboy
2:49 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
New blog!
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 104 Comments: 503
3221. SeniorPoppy
2:46 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


Ikes probably hitting his head on the keyboard right now..... naaa, Ikes cool and straight up about things :)


I'm kind of surprised they kept with the same numbers.
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
3220. nyhurricaneboy
2:45 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting caneswatch:


Chill dude. While he has no degree, like some others on here who are also good, he's actually good at what he forecasts. BTW, he said for the day, not for a week.


Thank you.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 104 Comments: 503
3219. SeniorPoppy
2:45 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting: sammywammybamy

Are you for Real???

Are you Mad?

Look at the Temps in the gulf! Do you want another Katrina?

You Need to be Run over with a truck!!

First of all, even if this disturbance were to go in the Central Gulf, the conditions are not conducive for such explosive development. Again, enough with the darn K word.
Member Since: August 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 497
3218. SeaMule
2:44 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting Neapolitan:


It's obvious JB likes to hear his own voice, but still, isn't it about time that someone explain to that chest-beating fool that simply spouting rhetoric without offering a single shred of proof is just silly? (And I'd like him, for starters, to say just what he means by "shoving an agenda down the throat of the American people". Is that kinda like when your doctor "shoves his agenda down your throat" when he breaks the news that you have heart disease and need to stop eating junk food and smoking cigarettes now? Darn those "agenda driven" people!)



I love it when nobodies with no education slam somebody like Joe Bastardi. Their is a definite agenda and political posturing for almost every thing under the sun. People who spout global warming, and maintain that the earth is getting warmer may take that side, because it is "fashionable", or because so many others believe it. I have no scientific moxy or intellect to make a call either way. One thing I won't do is trash someone who is an elite in the field. It makes me ill when people trash one another, as though they were smarter. It's all that really is....by denigrating others, they assume we will think they are much smarter. the opposite is true. those that slam their fellow men....are the real losers. I would prefer people give their opinion, right or wrong....base it on gut feel or scientific reasoning, and we all let it go at that. Get tired of all the bickering and whining and self promoting. (by some)

Joe Bastardi gets paid well....and lot's of people and businesses listen to him. there is a reason for that...and it ain't hype..neither.
Member Since: October 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 113
3217. StadiumEffect
2:43 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting Squid28:
Are 92L and Colin close enough to each other that one of them will steal the others "mojo" and possibly hinder development?

Thanks to those who try to answer during the "high season" for hurricane activity.
The two systems are way too far apart for them to influence each other in terms of development.
3216. PensacolaDoug
2:42 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
Distortion and hiding of the facts, pure and simple.


JB..should be a FOX anchor.

LOL


Silly left winger...
Member Since: July 25, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 591
3215. weathermanwannabe
2:42 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


No one predicted that Katrina would be a CAT 1 coming across Broward County and head south through the FL Keys and turn directly north in the GOM. There are always abnormalities that's what makes it so interesting to watch. Any statements/predictions beyond 24 hours out are possible projections based on a GUESS!


What history has shown us, as far as the tropics is concerned, is that "anything" could happen during the peak of the season, and, after the peak periods if conditions are right.....When in doubt, just pay attention to the NHC 3 and 5 day tracks during H-Season but a surprise can arise that catches everyone off guard from time to time.
Member Since: August 8, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 9330
3214. nyhurricaneboy
2:42 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I'm not the troll, there are only a few on here that I respect for their opinion and you're not one of them. Not trying to start a fight, just kinda humorous when people come in here and say that there is nothing to worry about. By the way where did you get your degree. Take it easy and don't get so offended. People need thicker skin.


You know what, whether or not you respect my opinion, it's here. Bloggers have a right to state their opinion and subject it to argument. However, they do not have to be subjected to ridicule.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 104 Comments: 503
3213. unf97
2:41 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting Orcasystems:
I hope we get a new Blog soon... like to see Jeff's opinions on what is happening :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Dr. Masters should be posting an update at any time now.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
3212. caneswatch
2:41 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I'm not the troll, there are only a few on here that I respect for their opinion and you're not one of them. Not trying to start a fight, just kinda humorous when people come in here and say that there is nothing to worry about. By the way where did you get your degree. Take it easy and don't get so offended. People need thicker skin.


Chill dude. While he has no degree, like some others on here who are also good, he's actually good at what he forecasts. BTW, he said for the day, not for a week.
Member Since: October 8, 2008 Posts: 14 Comments: 4553
3211. ShenValleyFlyFish
2:41 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You wouldn't be the first blogger on here to have a deadly hurricane with their name on it. Ike for example.
Ivan has always been a bit of a task. Wanted to change it when in grade school but no one would take up my middle. Proud of it now.
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
3209. reedzone
2:40 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting 2010StormNames:
Not surprised, CSU kept their original numbers! WAKE UP CALL, PEOPLE!!!! Ike must be confounded right about now. Anyhow, good morning to all, and Senior Chief.


Ikes probably hitting his head on the keyboard right now..... naaa, Ikes cool and straight up about things :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7423
3208. mcluvincane
2:39 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I'm not the troll, there are only a few on here that I respect for their opinion and you're not one of them. Not trying to start a fight, just kinda humorous when people come in here and say that there is nothing to worry about. By the way where did you get your degree. Take it easy and don't get so offended. People need thicker skin.


Very well said
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1390
3207. Orcasystems
2:39 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
NEW BLOG

I should have asked sooner :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
3206. NewYork4Life
2:39 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
invest 92L LOOKING GOOD


Cat 3 by tomorrow!
Member Since: September 11, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 59
3205. Skyepony (Mod)
2:39 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Looks like the hurricane hunters may still be headed to Colin this evening/night 05/0000Z & 05/0600, then 06/1800 (if still a viable system). Possible flight to 92L 06/1500Z.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 193 Comments: 38698
3204. wunderkidcayman
2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Hey guys you know we would of has maybe TD Colin by now if he was further south wind shear is for the most part low and the steering curent is not very strong but if RL Colin can make it into the Caribbean he is very lucky but on the other hand 92L/ex98L lol is doing just fine
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12545
3203. Orcasystems
2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
I hope we get a new Blog soon... like to see Jeff's opinions on what is happening :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
3202. hurricanehunter27
2:38 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Colin is looking fantastic compared to yesterday when there was almost no convection at all. Also it seems to me from the latest sat loop that it is trying to get convection completly around the COC but the dry air is giving colin a hard time to get convection on the southern side of COC.

Member Since: July 22, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3851
3198. PanhandleChuck
2:37 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
@3182 - Why must you come on here and try to start a fight? Every single day, we get incessant trolling from various people. Does it bother you that I made a statement regarding the tropics? If so, please fell free to WU mail me. Don't add to the trolling. Thanks. Me and the entire blogging community appreciates it.


I'm not the troll, there are only a few on here that I respect for their opinion and you're not one of them. Not trying to start a fight, just kinda humorous when people come in here and say that there is nothing to worry about. By the way where did you get your degree. Take it easy and don't get so offended. People need thicker skin.
Member Since: May 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1414
3196. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:35 PM GMT on August 04, 2010


and ice still melts
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54858
3195. Squid28
2:34 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Are 92L and Colin close enough to each other that one of them will steal the others "mojo" and possibly hinder development?

Thanks to those who try to answer during the "high season" for hurricane activity.
Member Since: May 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 343
3194. nyhurricaneboy
2:34 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
@3182 - Why must you come on here and try to start a fight? Every single day, we get incessant trolling from various people. Does it bother you that I made a statement regarding the tropics? If so, please feel free to WU mail me. Don't add to the trolling. Thanks. Me and the entire blogging community appreciates it.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 104 Comments: 503
3190. WhereIsTheStorm
2:32 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
For Floridians, Andrew in an El Nino year, in late August, shattered any perceptions about the actual numbers and timing.


No one predicted that Katrina would be a CAT 1 coming across Broward County and head south through the FL Keys and turn directly north in the GOM. There are always abnormalities that's what makes it so interesting to watch. Any statements/predictions beyond 24 hours out are possible projections based on a GUESS!
Member Since: August 14, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 443
3187. JLPR2
2:31 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Well quick hello!
Ex-Colin:


92L:


Cape Verde TW:


I must say all three disturbances look healthy.
And now goodbye, till later. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
3186. ColdInFL
2:30 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Colin is a bust, check this out:

Link
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
3185. Patrap
2:30 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Distortion and hiding of the facts, pure and simple.


JB..should be a FOX anchor.

LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
3183. Patrap
2:28 PM GMT on August 04, 2010



Morn irg..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
3181. Patrap
2:27 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

Yeah,.."wake up" could b the words of the day.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
3178. indianrivguy
2:26 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting Patrap:
The numbers dont mean squat as they cant say when, nor where.

Its more ego posturing than anything.

If they spent 10% of what they do on the numbers across the board,to Preparedness and education,we would have a much better aware Public.


So the numbers to me..are MOOT as where a storms been,,as to where itsa going.


well said Pat..prep is nearly everything.. and goos morning sir!

you too Senior Chief.
Member Since: September 23, 2006 Posts: 1 Comments: 2587
3177. RitaEvac
2:26 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting StormW:


However, the numbers do have a tendency to get some folks attention, as to maybe we should wake up.


It's more for insurance agents, so they can jack up rates and drop people in prone areas
Member Since: July 14, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 9648
3176. sporteguy03
2:26 PM GMT on August 04, 2010
Quoting StormW:
CSU Still calling for 18?

Storm I do not think he included Colin since Colin happened in August so 15 storms ahead it seems based on his numbers.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5415

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.