Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Good Morning Everyone!!!!
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Good Morning Folk and a special good morning to Ike; thanks for posting most of the relevent discussions this morning.........Here's one more:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
646 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. A TUTT LOW NEAR 26N 64W EXTENDS A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO PUERTO RICO/EASTERN HISPANIOLA. A CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE IS
BUILDING FROM THE EAST...WITH AXIS FORECAST TO DISPLACE THE TUTT/TUTT LOW AS IT BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE WILL THEN BECOME THE DOMINANT MESO/SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

AT LOW/MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE TUTT ALOFT IS INDUCING AN INVERTED TROUGH IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE INVERTED TROUGH
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE REMNANTS OF TS COLIN ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WILL RAPIDLY RISE IN TANDEM WITH THESE SYSTEMS...WITH MOISTURE TO SURGE ACROSS THE ISLANDS BY 18UTC TODAY...AND ARE TO REMAIN HIGH THROUGH EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY. THE GFS THEN BRIEFLY DRY SLOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF THE STORM PULL TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE TO FOLLOW. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT VALUE WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR MASS
TO ESTABLISH INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF FOLLOWS A SIMILAR SCENARIO/EVOLUTION AS THE GFS...BUT IN A REVERSAL TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...IT NO LONGER SHOWS ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WETTER THAN THE ECMWF...WITH 24 HRS MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF 25MM. THE NAM IS THE WETTEST...PARTICULARLY ON DAY 03...BUT IT SEEMS OVERDONE IN THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THIS CLOSE TO THE MODEL BOUNDARY...I HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM CAPABILITIES...BUT
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING IN CASE IT IS INTO SOMETHING.

MJO PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...AS INDICATED BY THE CFS MODEL AND LATEST CPC ANALYSIS. BUT IT IS GOING TO BE A
COUPLE MORE DAYS BEFORE IT PEAKS...SO WE MIGHT GET A MUCH NEEDED BREAK FROM ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

DISCUSSION FROM AUG 03/0000 UTC. ISSUED.

ESCALON... (HONDURAS)
NARANJO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
DAVISON...NCEP (USA)


Guess we'll be watching Colin's remnants get ripped to shreads by sheer and the models over the next several days.........Prime time not quite here yet.
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2823. 606
Is there antything on the wave 42W. It is starting to look impressive.
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At 82.5w and 18n.... Is that an ULL?
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Well, I have a relatively late start today, so I may still be around to see what they have to say. Meanwhile, that first cup of coffee is still calling my name....
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Looks like we have 92L this morning in the central Caribbean Sea. Looks good this morning with some impressive convection, consolidating as well and relatively light wind shear. 20knot belt to the north.
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2818. gator23
Quoting IKE:


What about truth-caster?

The lack of evidence isnt the evidence of absence -Don Rumsfeld

lol
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2817. IKE
Seems like it comes out about 9-10 am CDST.
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Quoting IKE:


I think you're correct on what they will do. Slightly lower it...maybe only by 1 total.
Personally I think they'd be fine sticking w/ the # of named storms. It seems entirely possible for us to get 15 more storms by the end of November. I'd consider going down one on the hurricane and major hurricane #s, but only because the window for those storms is getting smaller every day. Also because a certain je ne se quois is minimizing hurricane formation over the EATL and CATL, which is keeping CV systems that would otherwise blow up into monsters rather mild. Not that THAT's guaranteed to last for too much longer, but it does at least potentially allow for reduced # of 'canes.

Wonder if they're up early out there in the intermountain zone.... lol
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Morning Everyone, Had a great thunder boomer last night. Great lightning and 1.10 inches of rain in 25 min.
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2813. breald
morning all. So now we are watching 92L. And mabe later on down the road Colin may make a come back.
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2812. IKE
Quoting BahaHurican:
If they go down, it'll likely be no more than 2/1/1/. Still too many positive indicators out there.


I think you're correct on what they will do. Slightly lower it...maybe only by 1 total.
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Bonni and Colin werent much in the way of systems to recognize. only Alex after getting in the gulf took off. something is missing in the TATL to get things going. To much dry air? Jet too far south? Regardless of the ocean heat content, La Nina, etc. ther is an inhibiting factor at this time in the Tropical Atlantic
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2810. IKE
Latest 6Z NOGAPS through next Tuesday....Link
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Today the Colorado State University team Klotzbach / Gray will release their August update. Will they leave the numbers the same as their June 2nd ones (18/10/5)? Or will they go down from there? We will find out later this morning.
If they go down, it'll likely be no more than 2/1/1/. Still too many positive indicators out there.
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As always THANK YOU very much =)
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Am I the only person who finds it pretty quiet across the MDR Twave wise? I think it was busier in May!

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Today the Colorado State University team Klotzbach / Gray will release their August update. Will they leave the numbers the same as their June 2nd ones (18/10/5)? Or will they go down from there? We will find out later this morning.
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2803. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's a 1012mb low.

This is from the first advisory on TD4...which became Colin.......MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

The rebuttal is...the ECMWF has had issues this year recognizing systems...like Bonnie or Colin. That's true, but I can't look at that model and say..I see the D and E storm on it.


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2802. DDR
Morning all
Its raining heavily again in Trinidad.
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Quoting StormW:


For some reason it's mis-labeled. That would be 92L. Looks like it's a little better this morning.


That what I was not understanding but the intensity models show quite intensity even though I know we shouldnt rely on models what do you think about this one Storm? as far as us threat and intensity?
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Brutal weather:

Link
Member Since: September 11, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 71
Quoting IKE:
Colin Racing Northwest a Remnant Low...

Aug 4, 2010 5:35 AM


Colin weakened to a general area of low pressure on Tuesday evening as the convection has become less organized and a closed low-level circulation can no longer be detected. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, the remnant center of Colin was located at 16.5 north and 56.7 west or about 630 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Colin continues to race northwestward at 25 mph. We expect the remnants of Colin to continue tracking northwestward over the next 24 to 48 hours, possibly affecting the northern Lesser Antilles and even Puerto Rico by Thursday before taking a more northwest track. The good news for these areas is that we don't expect what is left of Colin to increase much in strength over the next few days. Colin could re-strengthen into a tropical depression this weekend as it heads into a less hostile environment over the southwestern Atlantic. However, this is uncertain at this time and there are several mitigating factors for regeneration.

First, there is a considerable amount of drier air to the north of this system and also in the region out ahead of it. In fact, this air is laden with Saharan dust from the African continent, which tends to weaken convection needed to fuel tropical systems. This air mass is forecast to push westward in conjunction with the remnants of Colin, and perhaps impinge on redevelopment late in the week. A second factor that should limit the re-intensification of Colin will be a projected increase in wind shear. An upper-level trough will push into the northeastern United States on Friday and, ahead of this trough winds will increase across the western Atlantic. Increasing winds aloft are detrimental to storm development, so this will also play a role in the prospects for re-intensification of Colin.

The aforementioned trough will also likely initiate a more northerly component to the track, and it's quite possible that this system could become caught up in the midlatitude flow and head out to sea. However, if this trough doesn't pick up the leftovers of Colin, the system could get caught out in the Atlantic Ocean meandering between Bermuda and the Carolinas. If this happens, Colin would be in an environment conducive to strengthening and could re-establish tropical cyclone status. Regardless, we will certainly keep an eye on the situation and update the forecast accordingly over the next several days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, we have one tropical wave moving in to the central Caribbean, but development of this feature is quite unlikely at this point. Should anything more significant become likely, we'll let you know.

Check back with AccuWeather.com for updates on the status of the remnants of Colin, and all of your weather-related needs.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Leister


thanks ike, thought that caribbean feature had an a/c over it
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Quoting StormW:


what is that?
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2794. IKE
Quoting TankHead93:
Okay Dr. Downcaster, we get it, lol.


What about truth-caster?
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Quoting IKE:
Reply to post #2777.....Here's the 96 hr. ECMWF. Where do you see the D and/or E storm on here?



Here's 144 hrs....



Here's 192 hrs....



Here's 240 hrs....

Okay Dr. Downcaster, we get it, lol.
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so anyone know whats going on with invest 98?
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2789. Engine2
Good Morning Storm: When can we expect to see the remains of Colin emerge out from the high shear and the TUTT? When would be the key time to watch for this to possibly redevelop? Thanks
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Morning all. Ex Colin putting on the Ritz as the sun comes up.



Looks like the NE Antilles from Guadeloupe to PR may get some rain from this today.
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good morning Storm
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2786. IKE
Colin Racing Northwest a Remnant Low...

Aug 4, 2010 5:35 AM


Colin weakened to a general area of low pressure on Tuesday evening as the convection has become less organized and a closed low-level circulation can no longer be detected. As of 5:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday, the remnant center of Colin was located at 16.5 north and 56.7 west or about 630 miles east-southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Colin continues to race northwestward at 25 mph. We expect the remnants of Colin to continue tracking northwestward over the next 24 to 48 hours, possibly affecting the northern Lesser Antilles and even Puerto Rico by Thursday before taking a more northwest track. The good news for these areas is that we don't expect what is left of Colin to increase much in strength over the next few days. Colin could re-strengthen into a tropical depression this weekend as it heads into a less hostile environment over the southwestern Atlantic. However, this is uncertain at this time and there are several mitigating factors for regeneration.

First, there is a considerable amount of drier air to the north of this system and also in the region out ahead of it. In fact, this air is laden with Saharan dust from the African continent, which tends to weaken convection needed to fuel tropical systems. This air mass is forecast to push westward in conjunction with the remnants of Colin, and perhaps impinge on redevelopment late in the week. A second factor that should limit the re-intensification of Colin will be a projected increase in wind shear. An upper-level trough will push into the northeastern United States on Friday and, ahead of this trough winds will increase across the western Atlantic. Increasing winds aloft are detrimental to storm development, so this will also play a role in the prospects for re-intensification of Colin.

The aforementioned trough will also likely initiate a more northerly component to the track, and it's quite possible that this system could become caught up in the midlatitude flow and head out to sea. However, if this trough doesn't pick up the leftovers of Colin, the system could get caught out in the Atlantic Ocean meandering between Bermuda and the Carolinas. If this happens, Colin would be in an environment conducive to strengthening and could re-establish tropical cyclone status. Regardless, we will certainly keep an eye on the situation and update the forecast accordingly over the next several days.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, we have one tropical wave moving in to the central Caribbean, but development of this feature is quite unlikely at this point. Should anything more significant become likely, we'll let you know.

Check back with AccuWeather.com for updates on the status of the remnants of Colin, and all of your weather-related needs.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Eric Leister
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Colin got in some higher shear and it looks like he is not as organized. Yesterday, the SHIPS Intensity Model said it'll strengthen then fizzle. I guess it was half right, but it did not really intensify.

I think that it could reform after it gets out of that upper-level low. I think that Puerto Rico, or Bermuda should look out for that storm, but he might just go towards the East Coast.

Hard to tell right now whether or not Colin would survive.
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Quoting hurricanehunter27:
L92 is looking impressive today.


reckon that's the attention garner round here
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storm, morning... how's that caribbean lesser antilles feature doin ... interests in puerto rico
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2780. IKE
Reply to post #2777.....Here's the 96 hr. ECMWF. Where do you see the D and/or E storm on here?



Here's 144 hrs....



Here's 192 hrs....



Here's 240 hrs....

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L92 is looking impressive today.
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Quoting IKE:
Colin is about to get a haircut and it is moving NW...



Yep...check out the high clouds streaming E-ward to the WNW of the low.
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Quoting IKE:
00Z ECMWF...through August 14th...


Eastern ATL view...Link


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 71W WILL REACH ALONG 77W THU
AND ALONG 83W FRI...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI
NIGHT. THE REMNANT TROUGH OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN WILL MOVE NW
ACROSS WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND EXIT THE
NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THU.


SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL EXTEND W ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
THROUGH SUN WITH HIGH PRES OCCASIONALLY FORMING ALONG THE RIDGE
AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS THE FAR SE WATERS LATE THU AND
CONTINUES W ACROSS THE S CENTRAL WATERS FRI AND SAT...AND MOVES
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN.
..............................................


Folks along the northern gulf coast look to be protected...still...by high pressure...for awhile.



That format doesn't really pick up TS's, really only hurricanes. Plus it doesn't show the entire Atlantic view..

I prefer this link more:
Link

Not because I'm a wishcaster but I guess because I like to see even the minimal details.

According to Euro we will have both Danielle and Earl soon. Danielle is a TS that goes into Texas, and Earl is a TS-possibly a weak hurricane-that goes out to sea.

EDIT: Also there is a wave with very strong vorticity that just comes off at the end in the run. I'm looking forward to see what Euro does with that in the future.

EDIT 2: Looks like the Texas storm Euro spins up in this run isn't 92L, 92L plows into Belize and never really hits the BOC, it travels on the coast between the BOC and Mexico before getting absorbed to the NW. "Danielle" is spawned by the tail end of a front, possible home-grown mischief as Levi has been talking about for a while.
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2776. IKE
Colin is about to get a haircut and it is moving NW...

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