Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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2925. aquak9
"one cup dispenser"

on a coffee maker???

Does anyone else find this as totally hilarious as I do??

hi coops!! :)
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Well, I'm off to the Vet's. Should be an interesting day in the Tropics. Y'all enjoy your coffee!
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2922. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)

NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of WED 04 Aug 2010

2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
92L.INVEST
04L.REM.LOW
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
97W.INVEST
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
90B.INVEST
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Morning Storm - thanks for the synopsis!
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Quoting StormW:
COLIN REMNANT LOW / INVEST 92L SYNOPSIS AUG. 04, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.


Thanks for the update Senior Chief
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting BahaHurican:
Was looking at one of those "cup by cup" dispensing coffeemakers in Walmart.com the other day. I break carafes too regularly for me to ignore the possibilities.... lol. But I am staying away from the expresso. It's bad enough I'm hooked on plain ole' cafe americano.....
Folks at coffee house where I get together with a bunch of old Gizers and make retro Music most Weds when feeling well (maybe tonight) claims oz/oz drip about the same cafine as espresso, just more flavor. I think they just want me to get the High Dollar stuff.
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2918. 7544
wave at 9 n 45 west looks interesting maybe 93l latter
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2917. aquak9
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Mornin water pup... Tell hubby thanks! my vantage pro is eating up batteries (the dang $9 batteries at that) so I cant wait to get my Solar power pack!! woohoo...


Thank YOU, Dragonfly! We at RainmanWeather (better business seal of approval, authorized vendor for WeatherUnderground, authorized industrial vendor for NOAA, too) work really hard to please the customer.

And I love having THREE weather stations on the house, and getting to play with all the cool new technology from Davis, LaCrosse, Honeywell, Kestral, as well as all the ULTRA-COOL gadgets for emergency preparedness.

THANK YOU!!!
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2916. SeaMule
three areas to watch. we should be busier than a one-armed paper hanger soon....

is that politically incorrect? Will I be arrested for slamming one-armed people?

I think the Caribbean blow-up, and the wave just north of the ITCZ...are two areas that will develop. who knows...maybe anemic Colin will survive and suprise us.
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2915. scott39
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

COLIN REMNANT LOW / INVEST 92L SYNOPSIS AUG. 04, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.
Thank you for another informative synopsis. Why did the 8am yellow circle on 92L grow so much from the last 2?
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2912. breald
Quoting StormW:


Yes.


Thanks Storm!!
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NHC has admitted...

Wouldn't that be observed rather than admitted? Not like they were sweeping something under the table and now have to pull it out again...
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Morning, Aqua - just turned off the coffee pot here. Didn't get up until 0545 this morning - with the L&M gone I get to sleep in, LOL.
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2906. 7544
hmm they still send out a rekon to check out colin they must see something with it

also some models show more storms but recurve all of them whats up with all the fish stroms this month .
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Thank you, Storm Sir! :)
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Problem with those one cup dispensers---you have to use the K-cups or packets provided for those machines. Had one and got rid of it. I missed the art of grinding fresh ,and the aroma of fresh ground.
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Quoting b4dirt:
my coffee is just fine,but let an old man advise you that; look for the bermuda high and things will start happening!
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900_anim.html
OPC Current NATL surface analysis:



24 hour Forecast:



48 hour Forecast:

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2899. breald
If ex Colin flares back up will it still be Colin?
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Quoting aquak9:
coherent information all I know, I saw Shen's commment about the espresso--coffee coffee coffee

g'morning all, good evening if Aussie's here, lift coffee cup to everyone.


Mornin water pup... Tell hubby thanks! my vantage pro is eating up batteries (the dang $9 batteries at that) so I cant wait to get my Solar power pack!! woohoo...
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
2897. aquak9
Quoting FtLaudman:
NHC as admitted that ex Colin has become better organized as of 8 AM


I have a circular sprinkler running in the front yard that's more organized than Colin...
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2895. aquak9
coherent information all I know, I saw Shen's commment about the espresso--coffee coffee coffee

g'morning all, good evening if Aussie's here, lift coffee cup to everyone.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Now your wired for the day lol... I like the stuff too.. Morning to ya!
Morning to you and all the good folk on the blog.
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Goodmorning! I made "Community" coffee and had that on the way to work. Anyone like Community Arabica?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Morning. I was looking at the IR earlier this a.m. and thinking whether u guys get something is going to depend on how badly x-Colin is impacted by the shear to the north and by D-min.


Right now it could go both ways. We might continue with the lovely weather we are getting now or the mountains start to suck in any instability lurking around. we wait & see. Island could do with a "dry out" period.
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So true. I remember back in 2004 (the last time this list of names was used)...

OH MY GOSH, don't go THERE so early in the morning, lol! Some of us need more coffee before remembering and I'm all out. {8^P

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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Busted my coffee machine pitcher (caraff?) yesterday. Pulled out the espresso maker. Now I'm hooked again. More of a mess but SOO Good.
Was looking at one of those "cup by cup" dispensing coffeemakers in Walmart.com the other day. I break carafes too regularly for me to ignore the possibilities.... lol. But I am staying away from the expresso. It's bad enough I'm hooked on plain ole' cafe americano.....
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Busted my coffee machine pitcher (caraff?) yesterday. Pulled out the espresso maker. Now I'm hooked again. More of a mess but SOO Good.


Now your wired for the day lol... I like the stuff too.. Morning to ya!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting FLdewey:
I see they're going to burn some fuel in the Gulfstream today.
Noticed that too. Should be interesting to see what they find about the upper atmosphere, since that's what's most likely to affect the progress of xColin...
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2887. scott39
Goodmorning, Will high pressure protect the Gulf Coast from a potential developement of 92L?
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2886. pottery
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Morning Becca and Pottery!

Coming down hard again here this morning.
Makes the Robusta Coffee taste that much better........
aaaaahhhhh!
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Quoting Chicklit:
Yeah, they are Baha. Calling the monsta still on Afrika a ridge. Sorry bout that. Based on what we've seen in the past week, it's safe to say they will all become one in the next day or so though, don't you think?
OK, see where u are at.... given the "amalgamation" of the two systems over the Philipines overnight, I can see ur point....

No surface lows analysed, though.

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Quoting tkeith:
The mornings here is the best time to get real, coherent information about what's goin on in the tropics. Kudos to the early risers :)


Roger that, tkeith. Another day of wait and see, ect. I don't like 'em when they're this far north, LOL.
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2883. b4dirt
my coffee is just fine,but let an old man advise you that; look for the bermuda high and things will start happening!
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/plots/uv900_anim.html
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Good morning. I was going to sing the last song for Colin, but it looks like there are still signs of life there. Oh well! Time to make the coffee...
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2881. Tazbeat
Uh.... u might want to go get another cuppa, compadre.... lol.... it's only the 4th of August, not the 4th of November... lol



So true. I remember back in 2004 (the last time this list of names was used), we didn't get to the third named storm till Aug 13th (Charley) and then they started coming fast and furious afterward. We still have a long season to go.
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Morning Becca and Pottery!
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Thanks Baha! makes since! I just woke up and need one of StormW military strength Coffee.. known to us civilians as cappuccino.
Busted my coffee machine pitcher (caraff?) yesterday. Pulled out the espresso maker. Now I'm hooked again. More of a mess but SOO Good.
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2877. pottery
Quoting tkeith:
The mornings here is the best time to get real, coherent information about what's goin on in the tropics. Kudos to the early risers :)

Agreed....
Good Morning to you All.
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I wouldn't be surprised if current trends continue with 92L that it could be upgraded to medium chance by 2pm TWO. Work got to go, be back later.
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2875. Becca36
Good morning all! Just stopping in before I go to the gym hitting F5 over and over at the NHC site...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.