Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Still looks west to me.
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I'm coming into agreement with the 12z LGEM intensity forecast. Why? I see that after Colin passes through the TUTT it begins to re-intensify it, that makes sense to me considering the favorable conditions that could be north of the Bahamas.

AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 0, 140N, 485W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 12, 156N, 526W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 24, 173N, 567W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 36, 192N, 602W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 48, 213N, 632W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 60, 232N, 657W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 72, 250N, 676W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 84, 267N, 686W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 96, 285N, 688W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 108, 299N, 693W, 58, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 120, 313N, 701W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Making my second run on Colin, track changed a bit, but still posing a potential threat for NC, GOM is completely out of the scenario, Florida, is pretty much out of the scenario as well, but still in the cone. I'll be posting it soon.
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Quoting Relix:
It's not moving west. Check the visible. You can see the quick WNW movement. It's practically a few miles south of the forecast points, that's all.


TD4 is pretty much right on the NHC track. Even going back 24hours, its still running very close to the NHC forecasted track.

Its been moving WNW (overall movement) for the past 24 hours.
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118. Relix
It's not moving west. Check the visible. You can see the quick WNW movement. It's practically a few miles south of the forecast points, that's all.
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Quoting Chicklit:
I think that was StormPetrol Hurricane09, citing 'the John Hope Rule' about cyclones passing 50W south of 15.
This one's the Pee Wee Herman of tropical storms. (Thirty miles of wind field ain't much.)
With its dimunitive size and headed into dry air and shear, Colin doesn't appear to have much of a chance to bulk up.
Oh yea! It was Stormpetrol. Thanks!
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Seems to be getting a little extra nudge at the moment from the AB high to the SSW.


Correct that WSW.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
I think that was StormPetrol Hurricane09, citing 'the John Hope Rule' about cyclones passing 50W south of 15.
This one's the Pee Wee Herman of tropical storms. (Thirty miles of wind field ain't much.)
With its dimunitive size and headed into dry air and shear, Colin doesn't appear to have much of a chance to bulk up.

And it does appear to be taking a leap north.
Looks like I'll get a lot of work done again today.
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Quoting divdog:
should is a better choice of words. calling them as you see them seems to not work very well for you. maybe let the pros in here do that.
This is a blog, the purpose for it is for people to express their opinions on the tropics. The "pros" aren't the only ones that are "allowed" to express their opinion on here.
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112. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:
TS Colin Update..Latest Video Blog!


Thanks for the analysis 03...have yourself a nice day.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Someone said the Euro had issues with Bonnie due to it being small and the resolution didn't really work with it.

If that is true, perhaps its having similar issues with Colin.
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Morning, I see we have TS Colin as expected. I'm still on the west side of the models, weakening due to shear, moving slowly westward, possibly as an open wave. Once it clears the TUTT, get's in the right place either just west of the Bahamas, or in the western side of the Bahamas, it will start to head north NW towards the Carolinas, or east of it and could strengthen once again with it being on the western side of the TUTT by then. Still lots of uncertainty, it's still not WRITTEN IN STONE that Colin will recurve, I'm NOT convinced yet! Besides, Colin is moving WNW to the south of his forecast track.
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Looks like this year could be the year of the recurves
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Well I just I have to call it how i see and this trough off the coast of FL now and another one to reinforce should steer this out to sea.
should is a better choice of words. calling them as you see them seems to not work very well for you. maybe let the pros in here do that.
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106. Relix
The northern Antilles should be clear of Colin. It's nearly a fact now it's gonna miss us. I'll let the East Coast look at it now =P
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Quoting PRweathercenter:
this seems like a train that has gone off course, it's flying westward, with not much of northerly jog, i wonder when will it make that turn?


Seems to be getting a little extra nudge at the moment from the AB high to the SSW.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
TAFB: T2.5 -- TAFB, DS, VI, 5, 2525 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 2.5 BASED ON 0.5 BANDING. NLINEMET= 2.5 PAT=

SAB: T2.0 -- SAB, GG, VIM, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES13, LLCC, T, DT=2.0 BO CDO MET=2.0 PT=2.0 FTBO DT PA=40 NMI
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Yeah, the CMC is pretty good at predicting the location and movement of storms that are just forming, or haven't formed yet. I think it forms storms whenever good potential for a storm to form exists. Rarely ever does one form that the CMC did not predict.
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We'll probably see 92L out of the Caribbean area today. Usually once they hit 20% they declare invest. Exception is 91L, but the original 90L was declared a invest at 20%.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24167
Quoting MississippiWx:
Sea surface temperatures in the GOM have really made a leap this past week. Nearly the entire GOM is 30C or higher.



The South has experienced a huge heat wave. Made my life miserable.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24167
POWERFUL AUGUST STORMS HISTORICALLY
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Quoting sporteguy03:
Link

CMC still performing well around 30 miles off track.


Yes sir. I like a position between the 6 day 00z CMC and Nogaps(as bad as it can be at times) forecast points. Interesting both are showing an intensifying system at that point. Colin has maintained quite well considering its speed of movement which is the main reason for limited size and intensity to this point. This may get interesting as Colin slows in response to the changes to the north and west and approaches the SE Coast.
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I don't remember who said it but I remember someone saying that if Colin passes south of 15N before passing west of 50W it would likely affect one of the northern Lesser Antilles. We might see some watches get issued later today...
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wow 12Z model are crap I still say wait until the G-IV flys in I say the bet models are for 12Z would be XTRP(YES I KNOW IT IS NOT A MODEL)CMC AND THE CLP5 but I still think that even these are a little to north
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Anybody noticing low pressure trying to form just NE of the Bahamas this morning. It's obivous this trough off FL will kick Colin out to see and on the trough seems to be some developement trying to occur.
dr masters did not sound like it was OBVIOUS that the trough would take care of colin. man you need to use more non definitive language and people would not ride you about your forecasts
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Sea surface temperatures in the GOM have really made a leap this past week. Nearly the entire GOM is 30C or higher.

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Looking at the ECMWF it also develops a tropical wave and takes it directly northward out to sea behind Colin.

ECMWF 240 hours again, check north of 48W


I believe this is that tropical wave that will spawn development per ECMWF.


So we have 4 things to watch over the next couple of days, Colin, Caribbean AOI, Tropical Wave behind Colin, and the trough that will guide Colin out to sea.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24167
The Southwest tip of the peninsula is just above average precipitation-wise; here in Naples, we've received 30.71" year-to-date, while normal is 29.12" (and by comparison, last year we'd received only 11.08" by now). Of course, some of that has come in a few particular deluges--like yesterday's 1.46"--but I'll take that over drought any day.

Of course, our normal YTD cooling degree days are 1952, and we're at 2154, or 10% over average. Not cool (literally and figuratively); my electric bill is getting a little heavy...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13551
this seems like a train that has gone off course, it's flying westward, with not much of northerly jog, i wonder when will it make that turn?
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 60 Comments: 1011
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


It's gotta be taken into consideration. It's been very consistent with it's track. Consistently wrong? Maybe.

I have noticed the CMC seems to be performing better this year than last year unless I'm too much of a novice to be seeing the whole picture properly...
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Quoting gator23:

the CMC is better than peole give it credit for. It does spinup a lot of ghost storms but I feel it has been pretty good this season.


It's really nailing the short term track right now.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
TS Colin Update..Latest Video Blog!
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


It's gotta be taken into consideration. It's been very consistent with it's track. Consistently wrong? Maybe.

the CMC is better than peole give it credit for. It does spinup a lot of ghost storms but I feel it has been pretty good this season.
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But, not looking at satellite so far.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting sporteguy03:


ECMWF has done a lousy job on Colin it did not get the track or intensity right, ECMWF is back to the pack of models no longer the front runner.


Didn't develop Bonnie either.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24167
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I dont think you need to put the disclaimer in there.. No-one (I sure hope) wants anyone to get hurt or property damage... but yeah there is a lot of things happening out there.


just crossing my T's and dotting my i's lol some people can get real jumpy and things get taken the wrong way real fast

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More 12Z model runs Have a great day :)


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Quoting sporteguy03:
Link

CMC still performing well around 30 miles off track.


It's gotta be taken into consideration. It's been very consistent with it's track. Consistently wrong? Maybe.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
12Z



xtrp has moved south again. Roughly 24 hours ago it went to Okeechobee, today it goes to Yucatan. At this rate the storm will have to make a 90 degree turn to follow the models. :)
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Anybody noticing low pressure trying to form just NE of the Bahamas this morning. It's obivous this trough off FL will kick Colin out to see and on the trough seems to be some developement trying to occur.

NWS JAX says the cold front my stall N. off the areas so we will see.
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Link

CMC still performing well around 30 miles off track.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5351
colin looking wimpy
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Quoting Patrap:


Extreme heat buckles dozens of Kenner streets

It's a common sight across the metro area these days -- busted, broken concrete rising off the ground, as streets are buckling under the searing summer heat.



WOW unreal, thanks for sharing
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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