Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

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Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would suggest you ask StormW or extreme236, either will answer your questions very well. However I do believe that shortwave troughs usually come into play for about a day before moving
off, I'm not sure though.


I'm pretty sure you are correct. I believe troughs are usually only in play for a day or two before moving off, although their effects can be felt for some time before or after in terms of their effects on ridges...I'm sure StormW knows more about it.
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Quoting smuldy:
looks pretty certain this storm will in fact recurve and head out to sea despite westward tracking, first time the euro model was wrong early in a storm's existence this year, but 2/3 ain't bad. hoping i'm wrong and models are wrong but wishcasting does nothing to effect real conditions, wave will probably head west if anything forms, so all is quiet on SE front atm at least up to NC


ECMWF missed Bonnie.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I'm paying special attention to this storm because he has my brothers name I think It would be funny if Colin came and hit me if he does I'll hit him back. Anywho has anyone noticed the little blob in the Caribbean? As soon as it moves away from SA it could develop


zoom in on it here Loop
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Colin becoming better organized.



It is developing more intense convection over the center now.
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Colin's going to hit a barrier of 40 knot shear. AOI in Caribbean has a anticyclone.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
looks pretty certain this storm will in fact recurve and head out to sea despite westward tracking, first time the euro model was wrong early in a storm's existence this year, but 2/3 ain't bad. hoping i'm wrong and models are wrong but wishcasting does nothing to effect real conditions, wave will probably head west if anything forms, so all is quiet on SE front atm at least up to NC
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm coming into agreement with the 12z LGEM intensity forecast. Why? I see that after Colin passes through the TUTT it begins to re-intensify it, that makes sense to me considering the favorable conditions that could be north of the Bahamas.

AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 0, 140N, 485W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 12, 156N, 526W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 24, 173N, 567W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 36, 192N, 602W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 48, 213N, 632W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 60, 232N, 657W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 72, 250N, 676W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 84, 267N, 686W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 96, 285N, 688W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 108, 299N, 693W, 58, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 120, 313N, 701W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


You copycater!!! lol.. you'll like my new forecast...
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Quoting extreme236:


Certainly possible, unless it gets destroyed by the wind shear. If it does indeed make it to 55kts and becomes more organized, it should be able to survive.

Check out this link.
http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang=en&satdir=/models/gemglb_amer_00/&satname=gemglbPR00&satext =gif&num=56&speed=5&src=1&title=GEM%20GLB%2000Z%20ANIM

Is it possible that it stays weak, gets steered more west and ends up doing a curve right up the Florida coast and follows the contour of the coastline up to SC/NC and ends pretty much being a summertime nor'easter for the north east?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would suggest you ask StormW or extreme236, either will answer your questions very well. However I do believe that shortwave troughs usually come into play for about a day before moving off, I'm not sure though.


ok will do, Thanks
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
I'm paying special attention to this storm because he has my brothers name I think It would be funny if Colin came and hit me if he does I'll hit him back. Anywho has anyone noticed the little blob in the Caribbean? As soon as it moves away from SA it could develop
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Colin becoming better organized.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484


A picture worth a thousand words.
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Quoting extreme236:
ECMWF on the 00z run developed another CV storm several days from now, but moves it well to the north and east of any landmasses...also develops the Caribbean system somewhat and moves it into Central America.


Active couple of days coming up, just as predicted.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
Quoting ho77yw00d:
MH09... I have a QUESTION ok so on models and tracks ect, how many days out give the best and a more accurate reading when it comes to landfalls? also, how long do troughs stay in play or can it change quickly and change tracks just as fast? not just for colin but in general.
I would suggest you ask StormW or extreme236, either will answer your questions very well. However I do believe that shortwave troughs usually come into play for about a day before moving off, I'm not sure though.
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ECMWF on the 00z run developed another CV storm several days from now, but moves it well to the north and east of any landmasses...also develops the Caribbean system somewhat and moves it into Central America.
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Do we at least get some rain out of Colin here in NC?
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TS Colin:

TS Colin

20% area in the eastern Caribbean:

Something later?
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13611
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wasn't defending anyone, even if he was wrong this is still a blog and he should be allowed to voice his opinion be it right or wrong.
I do not believe making a prediction that a storm will be a monster and hit florida when the storm is over 10 days away is anything more than irresponsible. what about the people that don't know Jeff and he scares the hell out of them with one of his wild predictions. like i said if you throw enuf darts at a dartboard you will eventually hit the bullseye.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


I admit I was wrong but it wasn't until Sunday that the models started showing this trough. This trough kinda fooled a lot of people considering the pattern we've been in all summer.

That is what happens when you are a model forecaster. Hate to say it but it was pretty clear this was a fish storm if it detached itself from the ITCZ. Just got to look a a good satellite picture and the synoptic pattern. I didnt say anything because I would have been jumped all over again for being a downcaster when so many were forecasting a FL strike. I just sat back and enjoyed the entertainment.
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Quoting BDADUDE:
Can't believe you are still wishcasting these things to hit America. You have some mental deficiencies, you need to listen to the experts. This system is not going to affect anyone. Don't be a wishcaster reedzone, look at the facts and don't wish these storms to hit land and cause devastation!!
You seem to be crossing forecasting with wishcasting. There is still a very good possibility that this may hit the U.S, there's also a very good possibility that this will recurve, there is also a very good possibility that this will get killed by the TUTT axis.
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For me I can't see Colin having significant impacts on the US the only storm I can think of that came near Bermuda than impacted US is Diane 55 I think Colin might Act like Bertha 08 but have the intensity of Florence 06
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149. XLR8
Record high set in Jackson, Ms yesterday 105 old record was 103, in 1952. Not looking any better today or the rest of the week for that matter. Orca what about that fan it needs to be on high, please :) Have a great day everyone!
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Date (UTC): 2010/08/03 11:35
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/08/03 11:58
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pouch Name: PGI24L Official Name: Initial Center Point: 14N 18W
Notes:

Several days ago, PGI21L moved off of Africa and passed north
and close to the convectively active PGI22L, helping to develop
PGI22L into what is now TS Colin.
Now, there is a similar scenario with a convectively active ITCZ
and PGI24L coming off of Africa. The models suggest that the
initial 700hPa wave will dissipate but that subsequent
development occurs in the ITCZ.

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MH09... I have a QUESTION ok so on models and tracks ect, how many days out give the best and a more accurate reading when it comes to landfalls? also, how long do troughs stay in play or can it change quickly and change tracks just as fast? not just for colin but in general.
Member Since: July 3, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 427
Quoting Jeff9641:


I admit I was wrong but it wasn't until Sunday that the models started showing this trough. This trough kinda fooled a lot of people considering the pattern we've been in all summer.
Which is all I was trying to tell you. steering patterns change constantly and you should stop making bold predictions 10 days in advance on systems.
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Quoting divdog:
From the guy who said colin would be a monster off the coast of florida because the steering currents were so strightforward. man be careful who you defend may rub off on you.
I wasn't defending anyone, even if he was wrong this is still a blog and he should be allowed to voice his opinion be it right or wrong.
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I see Colin becoming a more significant threat to the East Coast of the US. After the journey through the TUTT for a day or two, which right now the SHIPS wind shear forecast is below 30 knots it had yesterday, Colin should be able to maintain TS status. A new blowup of convection is occuring over his COC.
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Surface pressures remain relatively high in the vicinity of PGI23L, however it is accompanied by strong divergence aloft, this should translate to lowering of surface pressures. MIMIC-TPW suggests that PGI23L is accompanied by pretty well-defined cyclonic curvature. Upper level winds are also favorable for development as it is accompanied by an anticyclone. Dry air is also minimal around the system. The only inhibiting factor I see is land, but that should not be a problem in a couple of days. At the moment I would give PGI23L a medium chance (30-50%) of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 72-96 hours.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not good. Know why? If a trough pattern sets up this year storms in the Caribbean are more likely to affect the US rather than be pushed westward. That's how Charley hit Florida.


Even if the long trackers end up recurving, it doesn't preclude trough splits and things spinning up in the hot Gulf.

Storms from over Dakar and Praia aren't the only sources of trouble.
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look at all the models after Colin gets through the shear about Saturday a lot of them very quickly intensify Colin into a hurricane or strong TS
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Quoting hurricane23:


I'am all for it as it will tend to recurve the wave train the 06z GFS has in mind.


For Cape Verde systems its good news, storms like Bill will happen more frequently, out to sea with very little trouble. However, its a double edged sword. If a system forms/heads into the Caribbean instead of trucking west they'll truck west then start to feel the weakness from the trough and start heading WNW, then NW, N, NE.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
136. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Colin is doing his thing. Moving WNW. NHC has it ... take it to the bank.



Agree...it's moving WNW.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Thanks MH09! This guy seems to always want to start trouble with me.
From the guy who said colin would be a monster off the coast of florida because the steering currents were so strightforward. man be careful who you defend may rub off on you.
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Quoting extreme236:


Certainly possible, unless it gets destroyed by the wind shear. If it does indeed make it to 55kts and becomes more organized, it should be able to survive.
Agreed, it would also need to slow down though, it might not have much time to intensify where conditions are at their best (50-60W).
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Trough pattern does appear to be setting up shop now that we have entered August.


I'am all for it as it will tend to recurve the wave train the 06z GFS has in mind.
Member Since: May 14, 2006 Posts: 8 Comments: 13839
Quoting Jeff9641:


Miami any thoughts on this spin SE of Colin. Could that be our next potential?
I'm more focused on the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. After doing some analysis this looks like it may not be a GOMEX threat. As Colin recurves off towards the Carolina's per se that tropical wave will likely mimic what Colin does because Colin will act as the weakness to pull it northward. For some reason a Paloma (2008) track rings a bell. Should be an interesting critter to watch. The tropical wave to the SE of Colin should also be watched because we are getting into that time of year that anything can develop anywhere.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Trough pattern does appear to be setting up shop now that we have entered August.


Not good. Know why? If a trough pattern sets up this year storms in the Caribbean are more likely to affect the US rather than be pushed westward. That's how Charley hit Florida.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24484
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm coming into agreement with the 12z LGEM intensity forecast. Why? I see that after Colin passes through the TUTT it begins to re-intensify it, that makes sense to me considering the favorable conditions that could be north of the Bahamas.

AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 0, 140N, 485W, 35, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 12, 156N, 526W, 41, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 24, 173N, 567W, 47, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 36, 192N, 602W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 48, 213N, 632W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 60, 232N, 657W, 57, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 72, 250N, 676W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 84, 267N, 686W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 96, 285N, 688W, 55, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 108, 299N, 693W, 58, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 04, 2010080312, 03, LGEM, 120, 313N, 701W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Certainly possible, unless it gets destroyed by the wind shear. If it does indeed make it to 55kts and becomes more organized, it should be able to survive.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Still looks west to me.
Click on lat/lon and trop points
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127. MahFL
Quoting Relix:
It's not moving west. Check the visible. You can see the quick WNW movement. It's practically a few miles south of the forecast points, that's all.


A few miles off track a 1000 miles out can mean a heck of a lot......
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Thanks MH09! This guy seems to always want to start trouble with me.


That is why we all use the HIDE button!
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Link

Still looks west to me.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.